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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
 Posted - 06/17/2009 : 21:27:55
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Mintages pulled from You must be logged in to see this link.
NOTICE The numbers dont include 1982 because of the mixture.
84,634,798,777 P from 1909-1981 (13,307,053,933 wheats)
75,828,204,074 D from 1909-1981 (8,852,866,400 wheats)
5,686,072,531 S from 1909-1981 (2,564,191,004 wheats) (Does NOT include proofs)
Total 166,149,075,382
Total divided by 147 = 1,130,265,818.925 (rounded)
That number divided by 2000 = 565,132.909 (rounded)
So there you have it boys and girls! 565,132.909 TONS of copper pennies were minted
166,149,075,382 Divided by 100 = $1,661,490,753.82 Face Value
Todays copper price 2.237 Times 2000 = 4474
565,132.909 Times 4474 = $2,528,404,634.86 Total value
2,528,404,634.86 Minus 1,661,490,753.82 = $866,913,881.04 Differnce!!!!!
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Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
Edited by - highroller4321 on 06/18/2009 01:07:55 |
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slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 06/17/2009 : 21:34:46
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or you could have just said....more than 1 person can hoard so get your share today.
so if you think you are a heavy hitter, let me know when you have 10% of the total out there. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
Posted - 06/17/2009 : 22:51:43
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quote:
Originally posted by slickeast
or you could have just said....more than 1 person can hoard so get your share today.
so if you think you are a heavy hitter, let me know when you have 10% of the total out there.
Now the question lies how many got melted/scraped! |
Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
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slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 06/17/2009 : 23:22:11
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i was thinking about that too. how many are lost. in wishing wells, in playgrounds, gutters, streams,ponds,lakes,rivers. how many went down in ships.
how many got tossed in the trash or picked up by street sweepers.
i have used so many as shims on grocery store shelves over the years. at least a couple dollars worth. and everyone in retail knows the this trick.
lets just say 1/2 are 'lost' ......could just be in car ashtrays or in the couch or in a jar that sits in a non-coin persons house....or just lost.
then lets say 1000 tons are hoarded by us coin people.
you also have to take into consideration the ones in coin collector/dealers hands. or in someones coin folder they started and is now in the back of a closet somewhere.
that still leaves a large number out there to be had. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
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Edited by - slickeast on 06/17/2009 23:31:44 |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/17/2009 : 23:36:39
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quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
Mintages...
Total (1909-1982) 166,149,075,382
565,132.909 TONS of copper pennies
$1,661,490,753.82 Face Value
Roughly, that's only $5.03 face of coppers per American! If the circulated copper:zinc ratio is averaged at 20%, and everyone buys a $25 box of pennies tomorrow and sorts out the copper, then there would be NO copper pennies left... in one day.
The LME offically has on stock 283,175 tons of copper. Just thought I'd share that.
quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
Todays copper price 2.237 Times 2000 = 4474
565,132.909 Times 4474 = $2,528,404,634.86 Total value
2,528,404,634.86 Minus 1,661,490,753.82 = $866,913,881.04 Difference!!!!!
SHHHHHHH!!!! Congress might hear this and get some wild ideas |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 00:06:50
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quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
Mintages...
Total (1909-1982) 166,149,075,382
565,132.909 TONS of copper pennies
$1,661,490,753.82 Face Value
Roughly, that's only $5.03 face of coppers per American! If the circulated copper:zinc ratio is averaged at 20%, and everyone buys a $25 box of pennies tomorrow and sorts out the copper, then there would be NO copper pennies left... in one day.
The LME offically has on stock 283,175 tons of copper. Just thought I'd share that.
quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
Todays copper price 2.237 Times 2000 = 4474
565,132.909 Times 4474 = $2,528,404,634.86 Total value
2,528,404,634.86 Minus 1,661,490,753.82 = $866,913,881.04 Difference!!!!!
SHHHHHHH!!!! Congress might hear this and get some wild ideas
WOW, $5.03 per American...Thats pretty crazy when you think about it.
The LME may have that much copper, but thats pure copper not in copper pennies, but I see that your just comparing the ratio.
HAHA I could walk into congress during one of their sections. Show them the numbers, and they still wouldnt do it. Thats how stupid they are!
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Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 01:03:44
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166,149,075,382
That's a lot. how many zinclons were minted? |
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 01:12:34
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| Wow nice work. One day I figured out how many Morgans there were (can't remember as I type this - I may do it again). When you consider how many were melted for the British in the 1920s, how many were melted in 1980, and how many have become lost or culls, its incredible how rare they actually are. |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 01:18:30
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quote:
Originally posted by buyingsilvers
166,149,075,382
That's a lot. how many zinclons were minted?
135,940,156,911 P from 1983-2008
133,148,715,906 D from 1983-2008
Total Zinc 269,088,872,817
Divided by 100 = $2,690,888,728.17 face value
269,088,872,817 Divided by 166,149,075,382 = 1.62. So for every copper penny theres 1.62 zincs!
Inflation will blow your mind! Copper years =72
Zinc years = 15
NOTICE: No figures include 1982 due to the mixed composition |
Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
Edited by - highroller4321 on 06/18/2009 01:24:30 |
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c140cessna
Penny Collector Member
USA
419 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 08:09:02
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565,133 Tons of Copper Pennies......perhaps 50% are still around.....
Either way, my goal is 10 tons.....that will at least have the ability to move 2 digit places 565,1XX.
When the ban is lifted and copper is $10/lb.....or the penny is killed....you will never see another box to sort.....Brinks and the big boys will get them all. I know this from first hand experience in Canada related to the .999 Ni.....was 25% when I started a few years ago....now 10% in general circulation (if you have a situation to intercept circulating coins)....if you just try to interface with the bank to get coin....well under 1% due to coind processors working with the RCM alloy recovery program.
It will be exactly the same way here with the copper penny. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 09:28:23
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Fun discussion here. Now, the mint says that the average life of a coin is approximately 25 years. That means the average penny before 1984 has already met its fate. We also know that there have been approximately 1.62 zincers punched to this point for every CU.
Based on reading % CU yields from various US based sorters, I'd guess (some assumptions are necessary here) the average CU yield to be about 22%.
So, in very rough terms- out of 100 coins minted, 62 are zinc and 38 are CU. If the yield is only 22% then 16 out of 38 CU's are out of circulation. In other words (assuming a 22% yield) approximately 42% CU's are already unaccounted for, which leaves $2.91 remaining per American. Various CU % assumptions obviously change this.
Given the average life of a coin to be 25 years, a coin actuary table would likely show the remaining CU's are expected to naturally die from circulation at an exponential rate.
Hoarding can only accelerate the life cycle. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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PreservingThePast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1572 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 11:11:57
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At one time, I was an excellent math student. Now my head just swims trying to comprehend this interesting info.
Thanks for all the hard work to come up with these statistics.
Enjoy (and search faster)!
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brian0918
Penny Collector Member
USA
315 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 11:52:39
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| Wow, 500,000 tons, and even the most prolific sorters here have only done a few tons.... that is a LOT of copper! |
"The man who speaks to you of sacrifice, speaks of slaves and masters. And intends to be the master." -- Ayn Rand
Searched: $2230 Nickels; Liberty: 1; Buffalo: 4; War: 20; 2009: 2; 2010D: 8 |
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Gresham
Penny Pincher Member
184 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 12:11:43
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Actual ratio = 22% (C/Z)
should be 5.03 C/ american
1.62 zincolns / copper minted
find X C/american in circulation
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1.62Z/(1+1.62)=0.62 => 62 Z
100 - 62Z = 38 C
22/38 = x / 5.03
==> x= 2.91 C/ american QED
Which sounds much more complicated in words. |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 12:47:54
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
...Given the average life of a coin to be 25 years, a coin actuary table would likely show the remaining CU's are expected to naturally die from circulation at an exponential rate.
Hoarding can only accelerate the life cycle.
It would seem that their estimation of coin life is inaccurate.
It may be better to estimate the rate of extinction, rather life of a coin. This rate would allow you to calculate the estimated number of coins (per year and mint). Yes, this would be an exponential rate of decaying values. And would explain why we get more 1970's than 1960's than 1950's and so on. The exponential rate of extinction is compelling and I personally would like to explore this some more.
Can I rely on the mintage figures from the H.E. Harris books and Whitman folders?
Does anyone have an estimate of extinction rate? or even a range?
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goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
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G Powerbuck
Penny Collector Member
USA
256 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 13:22:53
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Arent Indians Copper to? I wouldn't know...I never found any but I heard a rumor.. . I wonder how many of them are left in circulation. Just kidding, there probably arent enough to make a difference on total copper tons. I believe they are a myth anyway  |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
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Nickelmeister
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
588 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 15:48:51
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Sounds like the consensus is that there exists $3-5 FV copper in the form of LMCs for every American.
Now here is the scary part: doing similar calculations for total amounts of gold (158,000 tonnes) and silver (difficult to establish total above-ground inventory), there is probably less than one troy ounce of each for every individual living on the planet! |
www.WinnipegGoldBuyer.com
Standing offer for sale of quality, second-hand solid gold jewellery:
<$100 USD worth - spot +25%, plus actual shipping
$101-500 worth - spot +20%, plus actual shipping
$501-1,000 worth - spot +15%, plus actual shipping
$1,001+ worth - spot +10%, plus actual shipping |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:32:35
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I'd appreciate any and all feedback on this spreadsheet:
You must be logged in to see this link.
It is a breakdown of the mintages and an estimated yearly rate of extinction for each year. Then this calculates the estimated current coins in circulation by year and mint. (the spreadsheet estimates that there are 67, 1909 S VDB cents still in circulation )
Then at the bottom, there are a bunch of statistics (estimates 22.49% copper:zinc ratio)
The values with borders mean that you can enter new data, the rest are automatic calculations.
If I need to add or amend anything, let me know.
enjoy! |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
Edited by - Market Harmony on 06/18/2009 18:37:58 |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:37:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
I'd appreciate any and all feedback on this spreadsheet:
You must be logged in to see this link.
It is a breakdown of the mintages and an estimated yearly rate of extinction for each year. Then this calculates the estimated current coins in circulation by year and mint. (the spreadsheet estimates that there are 67, 1909 S VDB cents still in circulation )
Then at the bottom, there are a bunch of statistics (estimates 22.49% copper:zinc ratio)
The values with borders mean that you can enter new data, the rest are automatic calculations.
If I need to add or amend anything, let me know.
enjoy!
Marketharmony,
I clicked the link to get the spreadsheet and I got the following:
MediaFire - 0 Items to Display |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:40:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
Marketharmony,
I clicked the link to get the spreadsheet and I got the following:
MediaFire - 0 Items to Display
Yeah, sorry about that, I copied the wrong link. Try this one:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
Edited by - Market Harmony on 06/18/2009 18:40:49 |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:44:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
quote:
Originally posted by Country
Marketharmony,
I clicked the link to get the spreadsheet and I got the following:
MediaFire - 0 Items to Display
Yeah, sorry about that, I copied the wrong link. Try this one:
You must be logged in to see this link.
Thanks....
The download is a PDF file. Any possibility to get this download in EXCEL format? |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Computer Jones
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1112 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:48:58
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I don't know if this will influence the calculations but:
Me and my friends used to put 5 to 10 each on the tracks when a train was due and then try to find them in 3rd to 5th grade, we used to favor using Wheats. I guess they still exist somewhere.
Do the ones I've drilled out and used for spacers to fit fenders on "rebuilds" count as still existing?
I know that at least 50 (pre '68) have been disolved in my High School Chemistry class when the Teacher was busy elsewhere. |
There's profit if you melt things!!
8{> |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 18:50:42
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
Yeah, sorry about that, I copied the wrong link. Try this one:
You must be logged in to see this link.
Thanks....
The download is a PDF file. Any possibility to get this download in EXCEL format?
Not just yet. I want to first run this by everyone, and then I'll post an additional link with the Excel file when it is all done. |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 19:14:13
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelmeister
Sounds like the consensus is that there exists $3-5 FV copper in the form of LMCs for every American.
Now here is the scary part: doing similar calculations for total amounts of gold (158,000 tonnes) and silver (difficult to establish total above-ground inventory), there is probably less than one troy ounce of each for every individual living on the planet!
According to a Richard Daughtry interview I saw on Youtube, that is about right - less than an ounce per person. They were only counting investment metals though, not industrial stock, silverware, or stuff thats still in the ground. |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
 Posted - 06/18/2009 : 19:20:42
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Questions about MarketHarmony's spreadsheet:
Why is the extinction rate variable on some of the earlier pennies? I know that the 1943 zincs should have a higher extinction rate, but why do 1914, 1909, and 1911 have different extinction rates?
Should the post-1982 pennies have a higher extinction rate because the are made of zinc?
When I was a kid in the '50s, collecting pennies was the rage. We didn't have the money to save the silver coins in our collection. I saved all the 1922, 1932-1933, and any semi-key date pennies I would find (I even found a 1909-S in a bank roll). If these were saved by me, perhaps they were by others, leading to a lower extinction rate.
I think the common date early coins were in circulation longer and have a higher extinction rate than the semi/key date pennies.
Comments:
That must have been a lot of data entry to get all those mintage numbers into the spreadsheet.
I think this spreadsheet is pretty neat! |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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I figured out how many copper pennies there are!
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