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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
 Posted - 06/18/2009 : 22:13:38
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quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
I'd appreciate any and all feedback on this spreadsheet:
You must be logged in to see this link.
It is a breakdown of the mintages and an estimated yearly rate of extinction for each year. Then this calculates the estimated current coins in circulation by year and mint. (the spreadsheet estimates that there are 67, 1909 S VDB cents still in circulation  )
Then at the bottom, there are a bunch of statistics (estimates 22.49% copper:zinc ratio)
The values with borders mean that you can enter new data, the rest are automatic calculations.
If I need to add or amend anything, let me know.
enjoy!
How did you come up with estimants for extinction rates. I think you need to very the number a lot more! A certain year might will have been worse or better than others.
Just my thoughts
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Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 06/18/2009 : 23:00:17
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quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony
I'd appreciate any and all feedback on this spreadsheet: You must be logged in to see this link.
How did you come up with estimates for extinction rates? I think you need to vary the number a lot more! A certain year might have been worse or better than others.
Just my thoughts
I completely agree. I wasn't sure which dates would have a higher extinction rate, so I estimated based on lower mintage figures having higher extinction rates as collectors may pull them out of circulation faster. Can you tell me which years you think should have higher extinction rates? I was just guessing at a few. Perhaps I should do separate rates for the different mints as well. It would be no problem to do so.
quote:
Originally posted by Country
Questions about MarketHarmony's spreadsheet:
Why is the extinction rate variable on some of the earlier pennies? I know that the 1943 zincs should have a higher extinction rate, but why do 1914, 1909, and 1911 have different extinction rates?
The extinction rate is the percentage of coins that are either lost, or pulled from circulation based on collectors/hoarders per year. So, a 5% loss means that for every year that passes after minting, there is a declining exponetial rate of coins leaving public circulation. It does not mean that these coins magically disappear. They are out there somewhere, in some form... maybe smashed on a rail line, maybe in landfill, maybe about to be dumped into a Mexican melting furnace, or maybe they are in a coin album.
The goal of the spreadsheet is to estimate the actual cents in circulation. So, in essence, I'm just trying to get a good figure on what an average roll or even $25 box could possibly contain based on how many circulating coins are no longer in the system. With the results, we could calculate how many boxes you would have to search before you found a 1914, or 1909 S. And, so much more. It is just a pure statistical way to count an obsessive hobby.
quote:
Originally posted by Country
Should the post-1982 pennies have a higher extinction rate because the are made of zinc?
I'm not sure why the zinc extinction rate would be faster than the copper extinction rate. What makes you ask?
quote:
Originally posted by Country
Comments:
That must have been a lot of data entry to get all those mintage numbers into the spreadsheet.
I think this spreadsheet is pretty neat!
Thanks!  I like statistics... always have. I've always thought that it is one thing to assume, but it is a totally different thing to count. If you can count something, then there then exists strong evidence that supports any conclusions drawn from the hard data. Nobody can argue against numbers when they are correctly calculated from a sound base of reason.
The data entry did not take long. I just copied the data from highroller's link and then pasted it into Excel, reformatted the look of the numbers, and then entered formulas into the spreadsheet. It took about 15 minutes to do the whole thing. |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 06/19/2009 : 02:27:27
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| good stuff guys! |
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Tourney64
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1035 Posts |
Posted - 06/19/2009 : 07:08:21
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| If the total circulated Zinc to Copper penny ratio is 22%, then I would think the percentages we should see in our Brinks boxes is less than that, since many of the older coins have been lost, horded, and melted. I'm still seeing good 25% + copper here in Indy on Brinks boxes. |
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longhorn
Penny Sorter Member
80 Posts |
Posted - 06/19/2009 : 23:32:08
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| Very interesting spreadsheet. To come up with your estimated attrition rate you might consider that there are different factors effecting certain dates. For instance, there are many early dates which were numistmatically sought for years, and taken out of circulation almost completely. Also, for many years there have been people who will pull any wheats that they find out. The latest such trend is us, the copper hoarders. |
Obey Gresham's Law |
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I figured out how many copper pennies there are!
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