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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
 Posted - 05/09/2007 : 12:24:53
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The April U.S. mint productions numbers just came out and I am going to start tracking the numbers here. The mints web site does not explicitly state monthly numbers. Instead, they use a running total. Hopefully this thread will give us a better view of what if anything is going on. First here are some numbers for comparison:
2005 Monthly Average Pennies 641.67 M
2005 Monthly Average Nickels 145.1 M (Might have been caused by increased collecting of special issues)
2006 Monthly Average Pennies 686.17 M
2006 Monthly Average Nickels 125.2 M
2007 Jan through March Pennies 2156.40 M
2007 Jan through March Nickels 394.80 M
2007 Monthly Average (Jan through March) Pennies 718.8 M
2007 Monthly Average (Jan through March) Nickels 131.6 M
Reference:
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Edited by - horgad on 05/09/2007 12:41:54 |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 05/09/2007 : 12:27:20
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April Numbers
2007 Jan through April Pennies 2978.40 M
2007 Jan through April Nickels 534.80 M
2007 April Pennies 822 M
2007 April Nickels 140 M
2007 April Lost Money Making Pennies (.004x822M) 3.29 M*
2007 April Lost Money Making Nickels (.05x140M) 7 M*
2007 April Lost Money total 10.29 M*
* estimated
It is too soon to claim that there is a trend, but the numbers look like they are moving up. The next couple of months will be telling. IMHO
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Edited by - horgad on 05/09/2007 12:35:41 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 05/09/2007 : 17:49:24
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Thanks for the information.
****************
Fanaticism is doubling one's efforts, yet forgetting one's purpose.
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 05/10/2007 : 10:59:59
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I've been tracking this for almost a year. I'll dump my penny and nickel data here FYI.
PENNIES:
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2006 Jun = 777.8 Million
2006 Jul = 614.0 M
2006 Aug = 726.4 M
2006 Sep = 563.0 M
2006 Oct = 614.2 M
2006 Nov = 512.8 M
2006 Dec = 372.8 M
2007 Jan = 542.4 M
2007 Feb = 702.0 M
2007 Mar = 912.0 M
2007 Apr = 821.6 M
2007 May = 921.2 M
2007 Jun = 781.2 M
2007 Jul = 663.6 M
2007 AUG = 727.2 M
2007 SEP = 489.6 M
2007 OCT = 557.2 M
2007 NOV = 262.0 M
2007 DEC = 001.2 M
2008 JAN = 364.0 M
2008 FEB = 426.8 M
2008 MAR = 262.8 M
2008 APR = 482.4 M
2008 MAY = 664.4 M
2008 JUN = 448.4 M
2008 JUL = 410.0 M
2008 AUG = 481.2 M
NICKELS:
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2006 Jun = 177.84 Million
2006 Jul = 96.72 M
2006 Aug = 117.36 M
2006 Sep = 123.12 M
2006 Oct = 128.64 M
2006 Nov = 52.56 M
2006 Dec = 76.08 M
2007 Jan = 91.92 M
2007 Feb = 136.56 M
2007 Mar = 166.32 M
2007 Apr = 139.68 M
2007 May = 140.64 M
2007 Jun = 117.84 M
2007 Jul = 86.64 M
2007 AUG = 87.12 M
2007 SEP = 81.84 M
2007 OCT = 66.72 M
2007 NOV = 82.56 M
2007 DEC = none
2008 JAN = 57.84 M
2008 FEB = 66.96 M
2008 MAR = 42.48 M
2008 APR = 34.56 M
2008 MAY = 39.84 M
2008 JUN = 40.08 M
2008 JUL = 49.20 M
2008 AUG = 76.80 M
RUNNING TOTAL
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2854 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
898 coppers (1959-1982) 23.7%
23 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
Edited by - Cerulean on 09/09/2008 07:25:18 |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 05/11/2007 : 05:55:15
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| Thanks that data will come in handy. |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 05/11/2007 : 09:19:54
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Does anyone have any analysis of what these numbers mean?
All I can see is the decrease over the winter followed by a new high more recently.
I guess there is a "seasonal adjustment".
btw, Hogard:
I didn't know that Che was available as an icon / avatar
I LIKE IT!
.....................
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Milan Kundera: "The struggle of people against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting."
Gregory Benford: "Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available."
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 05/11/2007 : 11:52:57
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I really wish that I had more historical monthly data, but from what I can tell there has been a clear upswing in penny production since the beginning of the year. This could be an indication of hoarding. A trend in nickel production is less clear. The nickel numbers seem to be all over the map.
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Che seemed fitting. I think he would approve of penny hoarding to fight the man.  Of course after the man was defeated, he would expect all of the pennies to be divided up amongst the sheople. |
Edited by - horgad on 05/11/2007 11:56:20 |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 05/11/2007 : 14:09:35
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One possible explanation is that the Mint was gearing up for production of the Presidential dollars this past winter.
Metalophile |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 06/11/2007 : 08:39:41
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May Numbers
2007 Jan through May Pennies 3919.20 M
2007 Jan through May Nickels 675.12 M
2007 May Pennies 940.8 M
2007 May Nickels 140.32 M
2007 May Lost Money Making Pennies (.004x940.8M) 3.76 M*
2007 May Lost Money Making Nickels (.05x140.32M) 7 M*
2007 May Lost Money total 10.76 M*
* estimated
Summary: Nickel production was flat compared to last month, but still above average for the last 12 months. Penny production was the highest that it has been in 12 months.
Graphs to follow... |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
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just carl
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
601 Posts |
Posted - 06/13/2007 : 07:50:24
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I wonder just how accurate the Mint's reports actually are. What if they are just estimates? What if those reports are just made up? And my next question is why is it important?
Carl |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2007 : 08:56:20
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June numbers are out. I've updated my above post accordlingly. Note that we've got June data for '06 and '07. Comparing them year-to-year shows a slight increase in pennies, but a large drop in nickels. I think the nickel decrease is because the '06 numbers were higher than normal due to the new obverse design, and the '07 mintage is back to business as usual.
RUNNING TOTAL
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3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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just carl
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
601 Posts |
Posted - 07/19/2007 : 10:54:07
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Like I said I just wonder how accurate these figures are. If they are the released figures from the Mint, they may well be just estimates. I've worked in to many places where the statistics publicized were tilted to make things seam like what management wanted and not reality. I've worked in places where facts and figures were doctored up for many reasons and if you mentioned it you would be dismissed. So why not the Mint with everything that goes on with the government lately, what's a few doctored up numbers there?
Carl |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 07/19/2007 : 14:33:33
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What would be the govt's motive to tamper with coin production numbers? What could they gain?
RUNNING TOTAL
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3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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just carl
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
601 Posts |
Posted - 07/29/2007 : 18:20:35
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Posted - 07/19/2007 : 14:33:33
What would be the govt's motive to tamper with coin production numbers? What could they gain?
Exactly what I USED to say about the statistics at places I know about. Yet every day there are reports of government statistics being altered. Best example was the Weapons Of Mass Distruction in Iraq. However, on a smaller scale, I've worked with the Nuclear industry and so many statistics of power plants, reactors, fuel dispersal, etc have been doctored for the satisfaction of the populace. What could they gain? Who knows. Way to many things possible and if we knew what, why, when, where our goverment says or does with statistics it may just prove to be useless information anyway. I did notice the several mentions of average and estimated though.
Carl |
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NiBullionCu
Penny Pincher Member
USA
168 Posts |
Posted - 07/29/2007 : 19:36:41
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If anything the Mint's numbers will be skewed high because that is what benefits them.
The govt. gets seignorage on all the coins produced.
They have no incentive to under-report.
Not saying the numbers are wrong, but if you don't trust the Mints numbers, you can at least use them as an upper bound maximum. Mint production numbers are not something I'd be paranoid about though. |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2007 : 09:43:17
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quote:
Originally posted by NiBullionCu
If anything the Mint's numbers will be skewed high because that is what benefits them.
The govt. gets seignorage on all the coins produced.
They have no incentive to under-report.
Not saying the numbers are wrong, but if you don't trust the Mints numbers, you can at least use them as an upper bound maximum. Mint production numbers are not something I'd be paranoid about though.
But if the seignorage is negative due to pricy metals, like it is for 1cent and 5cents, then the Mint would want to understate production so they don't look so wasteful to their paycheck signers, Congress.
Also, inflated mintage figures could be a symptom of general inflation, and we know They are actively sweeping signs of *that* under the rug already.
RUNNING TOTAL
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3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
Edited by - Cerulean on 11/21/2007 08:34:46 |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2007 : 09:45:02
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July data is out, and my list has been updated.
Compared to July '06, pennies are up 8%, nickels are down 10%.
RUNNING TOTAL
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3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2007 : 08:42:36
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Here we go again. August '07 data posted.
Compared to Aug '06, pennies are up 0.1% and nickels are down 26%.
RUNNING TOTAL
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3331 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1053 coppers (1959-1982) 23.9%
26 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2007 : 10:09:13
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Thanks for keeping this updated. I've been slacking a bit on it.
I used your data to update my data and chart. I am not going to bother posting the updated chart, but I will say that because of the recent declines in production that there is absolutely no indication of an upcoming coin shortage.
Hoarders seem to be having an insignificant impact on production for both pennies and nickels. Total 2007 nickel production is looking like it will be no higher than 2006 or 2005 and may even end up lower. Total 2007 penny production may end a modest 8% higher or so than 2006... |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2007 : 10:41:15
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September 2007 data has been released, and updates have been made to The List above.
Compared to Sept. '06, pennies are down 13% and nickels are down 33.5%
RUNNING TOTAL
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3501 zincs (1982-2007) 75.4%
1106 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
31 wheats (1920-1958)
7 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2007 : 12:04:17
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The good news is that the copper pennies aren't getting taken out of circulation as fast as I thought they would. So there is still plenty of them out there.
It is also good news for those of us hoarding 2007 uncirculated zincs. I was expecting the 2007 uncirculated zinc price to take a dive because of a surge in 2007 penny minting, but that is not going to happen.
The bad news is that there is not any pressure from a penny shortage that would speed up the demise of the penny melting ban and make it easier to return zincs.
So its good news if you want more time to build your hoard and bad news if you want to unload your hoard (the copper penny market just isn't in full swing yet).
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coincollector101
Penny Sorter Member
86 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2007 : 13:45:25
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Hi Guys Im new on here. Nice to meet you.
Thanks for all the Great info in this post.
Happy Hunting and Hoarding,
CC |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 11/21/2007 : 08:30:31
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October data was released over a week late this month. The usual update has been made here.
Compared to October '06, pennies are down 9.3%, and nickels are down 48.1%! This is the fifth consecutive decrease for nickels.
RUNNING TOTAL
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7252 zincs (1982-2007) 75.2%
2332 coppers (1959-1982) 24.2%
44 wheats (1920-1958)
13 Canadian (1960-2001)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 11/21/2007 : 21:20:58
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quote:
This is the fifth consecutive decrease for nickels.
Good to know, and thanks for the update.
'Bout that time to buy another brick of Jeffies.
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 11/22/2007 : 08:15:37
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"'Bout that time to buy another brick of Jeffies."
I would reccomend that everybody try and get a hold of an UNC 2008 brick when they come out. It is clear now that 2007s will have an average mintage, but there is no telling when they will change the composition of the nickel. If they do it early or mid-2008, 2008 nickel nickels may end up selling for a premium.
Worst case scenario you just return the box...
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Mint Production Figures
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