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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 18:51:13
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It's the dollar. The chart looks like it's beginning to break down. With the current base pricerange in PMs, if it went back to
the 72 level it was before the manipulation, Gold should be pushing 1300-1400 and silver should be breaking 20 again.
Also, I read an article that the stock people are looking at the rise in commodities as an indicator of a recovery.
So in a way I guess we're seeing a new launch from the current levels. |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 18:54:40
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| Interesting that gold isn't doing much, while silver is skyrocketing. If it pushes $15 - $16, I may sell off some excess silver, 100-200 toz or so and move it into a couple ounces of gold. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 05/07/2009 : 18:58:17
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quote:
Originally posted by buyingsilvers
Interesting that gold isn't doing much, while silver is skyrocketing. If it pushes $15 - $16, I may sell off some excess silver, 100-200 toz or so and move it into a couple ounces of gold.
To double gold would have to top $1800.00. Silver could double and still be close to its old $22 high of last year. |
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Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 19:00:05
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quote:
Originally posted by fb101
It's the dollar. The chart looks like it's beginning to break down. With the current base pricerange in PMs, if it went back to
the 72 level it was before the manipulation, Gold should be pushing 1300-1400 and silver should be breaking 20 again.
Also, I read an article that the stock people are looking at the rise in commodities as an indicator of a recovery.
So in a way I guess we're seeing a new launch from the current levels.
Is this roughly corresponding to the same period last year when silver hit 22 in terms of annual cycles in metals prices, or is the dollar starting to show appreciable decline and thus pushing metals up? In other words, is this cyclical or is this a separate trend at the moment? |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 19:29:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by fb101
It's the dollar. The chart looks like it's beginning to break down. With the current base pricerange in PMs, if it went back to
the 72 level it was before the manipulation, Gold should be pushing 1300-1400 and silver should be breaking 20 again.
Also, I read an article that the stock people are looking at the rise in commodities as an indicator of a recovery.
So in a way I guess we're seeing a new launch from the current levels.
Is this roughly corresponding to the same period last year when silver hit 22 in terms of annual cycles in metals prices, or is the dollar starting to show appreciable decline and thus pushing metals up? In other words, is this cyclical or is this a separate trend at the moment?
That is always the million ounce question but I'm gun shy that we won't at least see a spike in silver prices and a decline this summer. How high and how low I can't say. The asking price of physical silver over spot now makes selling and rebuying tuff and risky. Never mind that inflation hasn't even started yet and remember the physical shortage of last year? Paper silver such as ETFs and silver stocks are a lot easier to take profits on. One thing for sure I'm not buying more if silver break though $15.00. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 20:20:25
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
quote:
Originally posted by buyingsilvers
Interesting that gold isn't doing much, while silver is skyrocketing. If it pushes $15 - $16, I may sell off some excess silver, 100-200 toz or so and move it into a couple ounces of gold.
To double gold would have to top $1800.00. Silver could double and still be close to its old $22 high of last year.
True, it's just that silver has been so volatile recently that I dont think it'll hurt to take some profits off the table when it hits a short term high. And I'm overloaded with silver compared to gold.
BUT, it seems like the crazy premiums silver commanded earlier this year are gone. I know on ebay, a lot of the auctions dont seem to reflect the higher silver price since silver moved up so quickly.
We'll see. :) |
Edited by - buyingsilvers on 05/07/2009 20:21:38 |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 20:33:57
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quote:
Originally posted by buyingsilvers
quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
quote:
Originally posted by buyingsilvers
Interesting that gold isn't doing much, while silver is skyrocketing. If it pushes $15 - $16, I may sell off some excess silver, 100-200 toz or so and move it into a couple ounces of gold.
To double gold would have to top $1800.00. Silver could double and still be close to its old $22 high of last year.
True, it's just that silver has been so volatile recently that I dont think it'll hurt to take some profits off the table when it hits a short term high. And I'm overloaded with silver compared to gold.
BUT, it seems like the crazy premiums silver commanded earlier this year are gone. I know on ebay, a lot of the auctions dont seem to reflect the higher silver price since silver moved up so quickly.
We'll see. :)
I don't think being "overloaded" with silver is a bad thing. If you wanna sell, let us know. |
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Robarons
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
522 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 20:49:54
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Not to mention that isn't may the time of the year where metals sell off anyways? This spike in silver is worriesome in the very least in my eyes. I guess we are going to see how it turns out.
'Sell in May and Go away' |
Robber Baron= Robarons |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Robarons
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
522 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 21:13:36
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I do not dispute that the recent decrease in the dollar has played a role in pushing up commodities, but wasn't there a time where both silver and gold respectively were higher than they are now along side a stronger dollar.
I would say that oil rising because of people thinking that we bottomed out is making the other commodities (even copper, economic recovery play) to rise in tandem. I also thought those 'stress tests' focusing on a banking industry in shambles were pushing to a rise in PM's too.
I just think that a dollar falling would require something more than a current rally, but I cannot seem to put my finger on it. |
Robber Baron= Robarons |
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fasTTcar
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
573 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 21:16:21
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If it was the dollar, than it would be reflected in gold/copper as well.
If you are trading in and out, play paper. Physical metal should only be sold when something else comes along that is a better opportunity.
Me, as a seller, only sell for cash flow and profit margin realization. However, I keep some of the items I like as they come by and continue to build my hoard with the profits. |
www.londongoldbuyer.com |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 21:44:18
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The dollar looks like it's going to turn south.
Gold has traded up in the 920's for a second time.
These charts at Apmex look bullish for gold. the two year chart shows it's filling in an inverted head and shoulders. IF it makes that complete, it likely means a strong move upwards from there.
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Regarding copper, uhh... isn't it doing an 80%+ move upward from the lows in the last few weeks?
Maybe it's the time of year, but right now I'm not seeing it.
My supporting economics for that is that the fed is becoming a LARGE buyer of treasuries.
Also, I'm starting to walk out of the grocery store and wondering how this little cost that much.
dollar chart
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The tech chart on silver makes an interesting bullish move - look a the spike on the right breaking out of the pattern.
You must be logged in to see this link. |
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Edited by - fb101 on 05/07/2009 21:53:12 |
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fasTTcar
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
573 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 22:27:16
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Don't get me wrong, I believe that all of the commodities, hard and soft are beginning to move in the right direction.
I just was pointing out that the timing of silver popping does not jive perfectly with gold/copper (but it did with oil).
I am long all of them and expect all of them to continue upwards.
3 days does not a trend make. |
www.londongoldbuyer.com |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 22:36:23
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quote:
Originally posted by fasTTcar
Don't get me wrong, I believe that all of the commodities, hard and soft are beginning to move in the right direction.
I just was pointing out that the timing of silver popping does not jive perfectly with gold/copper (but it did with oil).
I am long all of them and expect all of them to continue upwards.
3 days does not a trend make.
Just curious, fasTTcar, how's the price movement of gold, silver and oil been relative to the Canadian dollar, since you're in Canada? |
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fasTTcar
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
573 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 23:02:23
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| Gold has been flat, as the US dollar has dropped considerably in the past week (about 5%) in Canadian dollar terms. |
www.londongoldbuyer.com |
Edited by - fasTTcar on 05/07/2009 23:03:27 |
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2009 : 23:02:36
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I think the move just signifies a move out of gold and into silver. Look at it as a trade of one for the other, rather than just buying of one commodity.
In the big picture, they are both going higher. However, one will seem to be cheaper than the other at times... just keep an eye on the gold/silver price ratios. If it was an inflation based move, the ratio will stay relatively the same. But, if it is a valuation based moved, the ratio will increase or decrease. This is due to the perception that one is cheaper relative to the other.
I could go into much more detail, but it would take too much time. Look at these charts of the You must be logged in to see this link. ratio, You must be logged in to see this link. chart, and You must be logged in to see this link. chart
Notice the huge percentage move down in slv in aug-sep 2008? That is when the gld:slv ratio went much higher... The ratio should return to a range of 4.8 to 5.3. But it currently at 6.6
That might be a lot for someone not familiar with charts and markets to absorb, but this is how commodity traders look at things |
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n/a
deleted
478 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 18:24:10
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Silver has NEVER passed it's 1980 all time high of $49.45 an ounce. This would be more than $300 an ounce in 2009 dollars. There's a reason for this. What that reason is? I have no idea.
My financial advisor is all for owning precious metals in a portfolio. He's an older gentleman and gave me some sound advice:
"Take some profits now and then and don't make pets out of your bullion."
His advice has worked for me. When any investment doubles in price, sell enough to recoup your principal and put that money to work elsewhere. Everything that goes boom goes bust. It really does pay off to take some profits now and then. |
Edited by - n/a on 05/08/2009 18:32:14 |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 18:39:32
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The reason is the hunt brothers.
If someone tried to corner the silver market today, silver prices would skyrocket just as fast as they did in the late 70s.
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Silver continues to move up relative to gold. I'm wondering if it's moving towards a more "normalized" g:s ratio in the long run. |
Edited by - buyingsilvers on 05/08/2009 18:43:16 |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 19:10:28
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| Buyingsilvers is right. the 1980 price was a manipulated price and the Hunts went to jail for it. It did not reflect actual markets, so the comparison is apples and oranges. |
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n/a
deleted
478 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:07:38
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The price of copper rose to over $1.33 per pound in 1980, making the cost of minting a penny more than its monetary value
What would the inflation adjusted price of copper in 1980 vs 2009 dollars be today? Did the Hunt brothers manipulate the copper market also? Just curious.
Silver has never even approached $49.45 an ounce. What would $49.45 be in 1980 dollars? Reverse inflation calcuator anyone? |
Edited by - n/a on 05/08/2009 20:31:32 |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:17:03
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What cost $1.33 in 1980 would cost $3.43 in 2008.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2008 and 1980,
they would cost you $1.33 and $0.47 respectively.
What cost $49.45 in 1980 would cost $127.60 in 2008.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2008 and 1980,
they would cost you $49.45 and $17.53 respectively.
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Keep in mind this was calculated based on CPI. I'm wondering how you got $300/toz in 2009 dollars.
From what I understand, the commodities markets was really whacky during this time period due to high inflation rates & fluctuations of Fed rates to combat it. But I'm no expert in this area. |
Edited by - buyingsilvers on 05/08/2009 20:23:57 |
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n/a
deleted
478 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:28:35
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I found this from SilverSeek:
You must be logged in to see this link.
Another way to adjust is by looking at M3, which shows a measure of money creation inflation, which the government stopped reporting in the spring of 2006 when M3 was $10.3 trillion. A private company continues to keep track, and now says that M3 is at $14 trillion, and increasing by about 20% per year now. That's the second, SGS chart that shows that silver peaked at $365/oz. in 1980, as measured in 2008 SGS adjusted dollars. |
Edited by - n/a on 05/08/2009 20:30:14 |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:30:33
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^
That explains it. The calculator I posted is using official (read: manipulated) numbers based on CPI (basket of goods). Their calculation is probably based upon what they think the real inflation rate is based upon monetary inflation. |
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n/a
deleted
478 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:36:53
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quote:
Originally posted by CuproNickle
Silver has NEVER passed it's 1980 all time high of $49.45 an ounce. This would be more than $300 an ounce in 2009 dollars. There's a reason for this. What that reason is? I have no idea.
What I meant by this is why has the price of silver been so LOW since 1980? The Hunt Brothers excluded? 9-11 attack, hyperinflation fears, record gov spending? That's all. |
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buyingsilvers
Penny Collector Member
441 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2009 : 20:52:45
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Maybe an image will help. keep in mind this is a google'd chart based off of CPI
POS seems to be pretty consistent in real terms except for times of high inflation. Low prices in late 90s & early 00s attributed to govt. disinvestment of gold/silver & falling out of favor with investors. Remember that during much of the 90s, there was the tech market boom.
Factors:
- supply and demand
- ties as monetary metal largely severed
- industrial uses & demand
- jewelry uses & demand
- store of value demand (investor demand for physical metal)
- effect of "paper silver" buying/shorting & spot prices |
Edited by - buyingsilvers on 05/08/2009 20:57:44 |
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What's with silver the past few days?
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