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146 Posts |
 Posted - 03/02/2007 : 21:01:00
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Given all the stuff Ted Butler says about silver, I wanted to see how rare various metals REALLY were. So I looked at this chart:
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(picture is from USGS so it's a reliable source)
According to the picture, here is the order of rarity of the metals in the earth's crust:
1. Rhodium (most rare)
2. Palladium
3. Platinum
4. Gold
5. Silver
6. Nickel
7. Copper
8. Zinc
Then I looked at the prices of the metals on Kitco.com and KitcoMetals.com.
1. Rhodium (most expensive)
2. Platinum
3. Gold
4. Palladium
5. Silver
6. Nickel
7. Copper
8. Zinc
So, it would appear that palladium is the most undervalued, contrary to what Ted Butler & co. say about silver being the most undervalued. However, apparently the neo-Malthusians may be more right than I thought about "using up all the earth's resources," since there is a strong correlation between rarity and price.
I also looked at some of Kitco/KitcoMetals' charts and quotes and wrote down how each metal has performed in the past 5 years. (Most of it was an estimate based on looking at a chart and using Google's built in calculator.) I also looked at the S&P 500.
1. Nickel (+86%)
2. Rhodium (+83%)
3. Zinc (+75%)
4. Copper (+73%)
5. Silver (+71%)
6. Platinum (+58%)
7. Gold (+56%)
8. *S&P 500* (+21%)
9. Palladium (-14%)
Apparently, with the exception of rhodium, the base metals seem to be doing a lot better than both the precious metals and the stock market. Imagine if we could get Mint-approved bullion coins and bars of the base metals, how profitable that would be.
I should take a look at palladium sometime. It's just over half the price of gold.
Comments?
By the way, I just got a really good deal on eBay. For just over $30, I got eight Canadian coin rolls - four of which were 99.9% nickels and two of which were 99% copper pennies. I think the person was marketing to collectors, or otherwise had no knowledge of us, which is why it was so cheap.
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"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." -John Maynard Keynes
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78 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2007 : 15:26:22
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Old_Nickel,
That's about $34 worth of nickel and copper, so with shipping, you probly came out about even.
Palladium might be a good investment, but I wouldn't expect it to do well if TSHTF, since it's mostly an industrial metal.
I like silver because it has both monetary and industrial uses. If the economy either booms or busts it should do well. Gold may be better if the world tanks, but I like having possible gains in both directions. I'm actually fairly optimistic about our economy but I like the insurance. I want to be prepared for all possible outcomes. |
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Posted - 03/03/2007 : 16:40:51
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First,
A round of applause to Old Nickel for doing research and sharing the fruits of his labor with us here.
Second,
I whole heartedly agree that Silver (and Nickel) have the best balance of potential in both directions.
Silver and Nickel are the monetary metals that most people have actually used.
Silver has always been the circulating coinage metal, whereas Gold has mostly been either jewelry or sitting as a hoard in the form of bullion in vaults.
If Silver gets hoarded out of circulation and into vaults, I expect Nickel to be the next logical coinage metal for general circulation.
I've stopped buying Gold, Silver, Copper, etc.
I am now buying cupronickel, the regular 5 cent US Jefferson Nickels.
I buy a box of $100 at a time. I don't even open these boxes, much less sort them.
I expect one day to be able to spend these nickels either individually, or a roll at a time, or even a box at a time.
If I die before that, I hope my children of grandchildren benefit form having these in the family.
Platinum, Palladium, Rodium, etc. are interesting!
However, I hate to admit this, but, I think that the average american (AvAm) is remarkablly ill-informed and often ignorant.
I do not expect the AvAms to be able to recognize or appreciate much beyond the nickels I have.
If I had to explain the silver value to someone at a street vender's stall, I would attract a crowd. If I pulled out a roll of nickels, I could get my apples and move on.
Peace!!!!
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Paul Craig Roberts urges people to
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Edited by - n/a on 03/03/2007 16:47:13 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2007 : 17:15:54
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quote:
Originally posted by John Law
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Hey Now.
Thank you John Law for finding this link.
It looks interesting not just for the gold information, but for providing the link on extracting gold from scrap.
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I don't know how well the processes work, but it is interesting to know that they are available.
And thank you Old Nickel for starting this topic, and for the information found.
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Posted - 03/04/2007 : 00:14:09
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you can buy palladium coins. i think anything that can be made into a coin form will be deemed money.
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palladium can be used in many of the same ways that platinum can be used. I think that palladium probably will outperform platinum for awhile. because of it's low price relative to platinum, I read that pal was being used in more and more jewelry.
Hey Now. |
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Posted - 03/04/2007 : 15:13:17
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quote:
Originally posted by FlyingMoose
quote:
That's about $34 worth of nickel and copper, so with shipping, you probly came out about even.
No, $32.45 including shipping. It was for 4 nickel rolls, 2 copper rolls, and 2 cupronickel (useless/unmeltable) rolls.
The spot price of nickel is currently about $20.11 or so. A Canadian nickel is 4.54 grams, multiply by 0.999, then by 0.00220462262 to convert the grams to pounds, then by 40 (nickels per roll) and you get about 0.4 lbs per roll. Multiply that by the 4 rolls and you get about 1.6 lbs. Multiply the purchase price by 4/8 and you paid $16.23 for $30+ worth of nickel. Add the current value of the copper, which I lost money on (but wasn't specifically looking for), and the money lost on the cupronickel which cannot be melted, and I made a profit of about $2. I guess you can consider that "breaking even."
quote:
Palladium might be a good investment, but I wouldn't expect it to do well if TSHTF, since it's mostly an industrial metal.
If TSHTF, industrial metals are best! Precious metals have very little industrial use, so they will be less in demand and their price will drop more.
quote:
I like silver because it has both monetary and industrial uses. If the economy either booms or busts it should do well. Gold may be better if the world tanks, but I like having possible gains in both directions. I'm actually fairly optimistic about our economy but I like the insurance. I want to be prepared for all possible outcomes.
Precious metals, like gold and silver, will never be money. Too little people have them anymore. Industrial metals, however, will have value if TSHTF because they will be needed by businesses and that will get you the cash you need in a Weimar-like scenario. The thing about silver is that it doubles as an industrial metal, while gold has less industrial uses.
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"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." -John Maynard Keynes |
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Posted - 03/04/2007 : 18:05:45
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I think that if TSHTF bad enough that we are bartering with metals, the industries that use industrial metals will probly be in big trouble too.
I also think that metals will still act as money in such a time. Perhaps I'll have to go to a dealer and trade them for euros to buy food, instead of buying it directly with the metal, but I'd still consider them to be money. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/04/2007 : 18:58:20
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I can't see how they can jerk the base metals markets around so much as they do the PM markets.
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Burn paper dollars before you melt coins. |
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Posted - 03/04/2007 : 23:06:37
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I keep wondering what I would want to buy in a post SHTF environment?
If there was clean, safe food available, I'd buy that.
But I 've got more canned goods and fruit trees than anybody I've ever met.
If there was clean safe water, I'd buy that,
but I've got the only hand pumped fully functional water well for miles around.
If there was real safety available, I guess I'd buy that,
but who can you trust when all hell breaks loose?
But what if the sh-t hits the fan V-e-r-y S--l--o--w--l--y?
What if we grind slowly down into poverty as a result of increased oil prices and a sustained fall in the value of the US Dollar?
Under the catastrophic big bang scenario, I can't see what I would buy, my fellow americans don't have anything to sell me.
Under the long slow grind into poverty, there are lots of things I would want to buy.
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Paul Craig Roberts urges people to
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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2007 : 00:02:58
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I think the thing to buy for immediate use after SHTF would be labor,...It would be something in ready cheap supply for anyone with SHTF goods. Standing guard, making runs for other supplies... Not sure how that would work...I guess you'd just look around for people you instictively think are good people and hire them.
Want freedom?
Move to New Hampshire!
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Just did some research...
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