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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
 Posted - 03/16/2007 : 13:07:39
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Goiod lord - why are "professional" price forecasters SO WRONG? I mean, I'm just an average guy with a 4 year degree and the capacity to understand graphs, and I can see that the price of nickel MUST go up, because supply is way way down. Supply and demand. Basic economics. So where the hell do these mooks get off with crazy predictions of a $10 price drop this year? To whit:
2007 Nickel Forecasts
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3/13
BNP Paribas publishes annual forecast for nickel at $14.97/lb in 2007 and $9.30/lb in 2008.
3/7
Standard Chartered raises annual forecast for nickel from $13.55/lb to $14.61/lb for 2007.
3/5
ABARE raises forecast for nickel to $16.67/lb for 2007.
3/2
Brook Hunt raises forecast for nickel to $16.41/lb for 2007 and $16.93/lb for 2008.
3/1
RBC Dominion Securites raises forecast for nickel to $16/lb for 2007 and $14/lb for 2008.
2/27
Desjardins Securities raises forecast on nickel to $16/lb in 2007 and $13/lb in 2008.
2/13
Natexis in Mineweb article gives 2007 forecast at $12.25/lb
1/31
UBS in Bloomberg article raises 2007 forecast to $14.50/lb
1/30
Morgan Stanley in daily report raises 2007 forecast to $14.52/lb
1/09
Haywood Securities in Mineweb article raises 2007 forecast to $13.50/lb
1/07
Reuters market analysts forecasts 2007 - Updated forecasts by Reuters - average of analysts show nickel 2007 - $12.00/lb and 2008 average - $9.75/lb. Here is the complete list found in Chinese media
ABARE - $11.23/lb
ABN Ambro Bank - $4.66/lb
Antaike - $12.00/lb
ANZ - $9.50/lb
Barclays Capital - $14.19/lb
Basemetals - $12.70/lb
BMO - $12.50/lb
Bank of Paris - $11.68/lb
Canaccord Adams - $13.69/lb
Citigroup - $11.00/lb
German Commercial banks - $12.42/lb
Commonwealth Securities - $13.61/lb
CPM Group - $14.09/lb
Deutsche Bank - $14.28/lb
EIU - $12.10/lb
Everbright Securities - $13.61/lb
GFMS - $11.11/lb
Goldman Sachs - $10.89/lb
JP Morgan - $9.98/lb
Lehman Brothers - $11.50/lb
Macquarie Bank - $10.13/lb
LOGIC Advisors - $15.65/lb
Man Financial - $14.02/lb
Merrill Lynch - $10.75/lb
Mitsui Bussan - $9.53/lb
Morgan Stanley - $10.75/lb
NCM - $8.16/lb
National Bank - $10.00/lb
Numis Securities - $12.00/lb
RBC Capital - $12.50/lb
Salman Partners - $13.79/lb
Scotia Capital - $10.00/lb
SiGe - $11.34/lb
Standard Bank - $12.93/lb
UBS - $10.98/lb
Parastatal - $14.52/lb
Wellington West - $13.00/lb
(source)
12/06
From December 2006
Westpac - $6.50/lb
JBWere - $10.83/lb
Wachovia - $11.68/lb
National Australian Bank (NAB) - $12.13/lb
Desjardins Securities - $13.00/lb
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"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2007 : 13:13:29
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The only conclusion I can draw is that maybe they totally don't understand that the commodities market and the stock market are very different. They see high nickel prices and the stock market investor in them says "Oh! It must be overbought! Price correction comming when market psychology shifts!" But of course, they're worng, because there's no P/E or Market cap issues here. Just basic supply and demand in play. There aren't many people out there holding large baskets of nickel for future sale - 90% of nickel buying is industrial and therefore decreases the overal market cap. Daily. By thousands of tonnes.
Unbelievable.
________________________
"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
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n/a
deleted
103 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2007 : 14:11:02
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No shortage of nickel.
Based on the abundance of chemical elements in the solar system, their physical properties, and other chemical constraints regarding the remainder of Earth's volume, the inner core is believed to be composed primarily of a nickel-iron alloy, with very small amounts of some unknown elements[3]. Because it is less dense than pure iron, Francis Birch judged that the outer core contains about 10% of a mixture of lighter elements, although these are expected to be less abundant in the solid inner core.
Must be they expect to drill a well down there soon.
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The above post is intended for entertainment purposes only and in no way reflect the opinions of the flesh and blood person writing the text. All writings under the screen name "copperhead" are merely a characterization of the personna created. |
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So Wrong!
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