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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:18:13
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Conspiriatoralist or not, someone please answer this question: In the land of capitalist and fee enterprise why hasn't someone rushed in to make a healthy profit by taking delivery of "paper" silver and turing it into small bar physical silver? Sure it takes time to mint small bars, but come on now, many online dealers are still saying 6 weeks for delivery. (What if it isn't ready yet in 6 weeks still?) Someone could at the very least take a hacksaw to a 1000 ounce bar and make 10, 100 ounce bars out of it. When people are buying bags of silver shot because they can't get physical silver bars at anything close to the offical spot price what makes you think they wouldn't jump at a piece of the 'big bar' at even $1.00 per ounce ($100.00 profit X 10 =$1,000) over spot & S&H?
Let's forget the price manipulation conspiricy for a minute, even if it's just the recession that has killed the demand for silver like it did for oil, copper, zinc, nickel and so on, why isn't someone out there filling the void in the physical silver market and making a killing on it now?
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:47:23
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I got this reply over at GIM.
"It takes months to get delivery off of COMEX.
First you have to declare you want delivery 30 days in advance and then it takes at leat another 30 to actually get it. I had a friend that took delivery of 7 futures (35,000 oz) and it was months before he got his Silver. At this time you can't even declare it and I think the next time you can is the end of Nov and ask for delivery at the end of Dec. then they delay that also by a few weeks as they account for it and give you the serial numbers and tell you where you can pick it up. Right now the way I see it the soonest you could get it would be sometime in Jan 2009 if you had the contracts?" |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
 Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:51:17
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Yeah but jewelerdave is claiming that he can still be .999 pure silver grain and spot. You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I have not seen a single article about industrial and/or jewelry manufaturing shortages yet... |
Edited by - horgad on 10/15/2008 19:52:22 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:59:05
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Additonal reply.
"That is what I posted the other day it is way out of whack and you can bet your ass there will be people wanting delivery if they don't soon correct this imbalance.
Spot price of Silver is set on a huge COMEX spring that is going to explode to the upside IMO
Of coarse there is the chance they plan to default and make cash settlements when everyone wants delivery and they can't provide it? The price will still go a lot higher either way!" |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 20:07:48
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quote:
Originally posted by horgad
Yeah but jewelerdave is claiming that he can still be .999 pure silver grain and spot. You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I have not seen a single article about industrial and/or jewelry manufaturing shortages yet...
Industrial demand must have a more established pipeline to get silver. The small bar industry is tiny compaired to it. If things don't change anytime soon maybe they will start to pour their own bars or else find they are going to be hard pressed to get physical too. |
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All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 20:36:22
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quote:
You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I can not afford a contract. Or a mini contract. I have maybe $30 or so in 90% junk and 5-6 rnds. What I want is to buy a 10 oz bag of shot and do just that. Pour and stamp,then sell. I have seen NO "home pour" bars sell. I am a bit scared on marketability, as if it doesn't sell I will have to hold it till spot goes up enough I can profit from a refiner. I looked at a professional mint near me, and it really cuts the margins if I have to go that route, 2.75 per rnd $50 setup fee for 1-499.
Ok, conspiritalist...
The "gubbermint" is buying it all up by proxy, so they can "recapitalize" their favorite banks. They "buy" the toxic debt and stick it on the taxpayer, the banks get good capitol and buy gold and silver quietly to get real assets in their reserves. The banks get the gold, the citizens get the shaft. |
The silver [is] mine, and the gold [is] mine, saith the LORD of hosts. Hag 2:8 [/b]
He created it. He controls it. He gave it to us for His use. Why did we turn from sound scriptural currency that PROTECTS us?
KJV Bible w/ Strong's Concordance: http://www.blueletterbible.org/
The book of The Hundreds: http://www.land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/boh/bookOfTheHundreds_v4.1.pdf
The Two Republics: http://www.whitehorsemedia.com/docs/THE_TWO_REPUBLICS.pdf
Good reading: http://ecclesia.org/truth/government.html
A number of people are educated beyond, sometimes way beyond, their intelligence. - Tenbears
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 21:11:47
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
quote:
You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I can not afford a contract. Or a mini contract. I have maybe $30 or so in 90% junk and 5-6 rnds. What I want is to buy a 10 oz bag of shot and do just that. Pour and stamp,then sell. I have seen NO "home pour" bars sell. I am a bit scared on marketability, as if it doesn't sell I will have to hold it till spot goes up enough I can profit from a refiner. I looked at a professional mint near me, and it really cuts the margins if I have to go that route, 2.75 per rnd $50 setup fee for 1-499.
Ok, conspiritalist...
The "gubbermint" is buying it all up by proxy, so they can "recapitalize" their favorite banks. They "buy" the toxic debt and stick it on the taxpayer, the banks get good capitol and buy gold and silver quietly to get real assets in their reserves. The banks get the gold, the citizens get the shaft.
Here is a photo of a good (as they come) home pour.
Silver may be silver, but if you had a choice would you take a chance on it?
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 21:47:03
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
quote:
You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I can not afford a contract. Or a mini contract. I have maybe $30 or so in 90% junk and 5-6 rnds. What I want is to buy a 10 oz bag of shot and do just that. Pour and stamp,then sell. I have seen NO "home pour" bars sell. I am a bit scared on marketability, as if it doesn't sell I will have to hold it till spot goes up enough I can profit from a refiner. I looked at a professional mint near me, and it really cuts the margins if I have to go that route, 2.75 per rnd $50 setup fee for 1-499.
Ok, conspiritalist...
The "gubbermint" is buying it all up by proxy, so they can "recapitalize" their favorite banks. They "buy" the toxic debt and stick it on the taxpayer, the banks get good capitol and buy gold and silver quietly to get real assets in their reserves. The banks get the gold, the citizens get the shaft.
Here is a photo of a good (as they come) home pour.
Silver may be silver, but if you had a choice would you take a chance on it?
$5k in equipment or less and you could make a pro-looking bar. Many people including jewelers already have this equipment and are not using it to make bars. Of course $5k means slow production and lots of manual labor, but still with premiums on bars almost as high as on jewelery you would think the Italians or somebody else would take a stab at it.
Heck all it would take is one major gold or silver miner making a small investment in some equipment and bam no more selling at spot for them. |
Edited by - horgad on 10/15/2008 21:48:35 |
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 23:30:35
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5k might as well be 5 mil when you feel lucky to have an extra $50-100 a month to buy with. Perhaps if I got some dies made, I could modify a log splitter for the press, but I think I heard once you need 70 tons for a 1 oz , the splitter I have access to is probably 20 tons. If indeed it does take that much then hand striking on my anvil is defiantly out for bars. I will try it tho, soon as I can get enough up for a 10 oz bag and a graphite mold. My forge will burn steel easily, melting is not an issue.
And really if you could elaborate on the equipment... we talking full milling machine and CnC or what? We could even start a new thread so I don't feel like I am hijacking Ardent's thread. |
The silver [is] mine, and the gold [is] mine, saith the LORD of hosts. Hag 2:8 [/b]
He created it. He controls it. He gave it to us for His use. Why did we turn from sound scriptural currency that PROTECTS us?
KJV Bible w/ Strong's Concordance: http://www.blueletterbible.org/
The book of The Hundreds: http://www.land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/boh/bookOfTheHundreds_v4.1.pdf
The Two Republics: http://www.whitehorsemedia.com/docs/THE_TWO_REPUBLICS.pdf
Good reading: http://ecclesia.org/truth/government.html
A number of people are educated beyond, sometimes way beyond, their intelligence. - Tenbears
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 05:49:20
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it doesnt make sense. futures should require a specific delivery day.
people like JM and NWT were making 1 ounce rounds profitably for a retail price of .79 over spot a year ago. they ought to be rolling in it now.
similarly, the us govt stopping production makes no sense. they charge the highest premium of them all. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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killerken53
Penny Pincher Member
172 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 07:44:45
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| I am fairly new here, but in reading posts, isn't there a forum member with 3 coin presses to make his own coins/medallions? Perhaps he would arrange with someone to make custom rounds. It might be worthwhile for someone with a large ammount of physical silver in 100/1000 oz bars to contact him. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 07:48:42
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quote:
Originally posted by killerken53
I am fairly new here, but in reading posts, isn't there a forum member with 3 coin presses to make his own coins/medallions? Perhaps he would arrange with someone to make custom rounds. It might be worthwhile for someone with a large ammount of physical silver in 100/1000 oz bars to contact him.
I don't want to speak for him, but he has stated that given the time and effort involved he prefers making collectibles that sell for a higher premium than bullion. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 07:56:33
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
5k might as well be 5 mil when you feel lucky to have an extra $50-100 a month to buy with. Perhaps if I got some dies made, I could modify a log splitter for the press, but I think I heard once you need 70 tons for a 1 oz , the splitter I have access to is probably 20 tons. If indeed it does take that much then hand striking on my anvil is defiantly out for bars. I will try it tho, soon as I can get enough up for a 10 oz bag and a graphite mold. My forge will burn steel easily, melting is not an issue.
And really if you could elaborate on the equipment... we talking full milling machine and CnC or what? We could even start a new thread so I don't feel like I am hijacking Ardent's thread.
I was thinking melt it, pour it in a good mold, roll it to smooth the ingot further (if needed), polish it, and stamp it(not coin it).
Here is some gold that looks like it was just poured and stamped....
How much of a premium would you pay for these given that coins are hard to find and might run you $40 or more over spot? Would you pay $10 over spot or maybe even $20? What if the dealer that was selling them was also offering to buy them back at spot?
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Edited by - horgad on 10/16/2008 08:32:34 |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 00:38:47
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quote:
Originally posted by horgad
Yeah but jewelerdave is claiming that he can still be .999 pure silver grain and spot. You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I have not seen a single article about industrial and/or jewelry manufaturing shortages yet...
OK, let's work around the periphery with this...what companies in the U.S. and/or abroad are the largest industrial users of silver and how has their production and/or revenues been recently? If their output has been suffering, maybe we could infer that they might be having trouble obtaining silver. |
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Edited by - Nickelless on 10/18/2008 00:40:46 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 09:13:04
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by horgad
Yeah but jewelerdave is claiming that he can still be .999 pure silver grain and spot. You would think jewelers all over the country or somebody would be pouring rough bars from grain to meet the demand.
I have not seen a single article about industrial and/or jewelry manufaturing shortages yet...
OK, let's work around the periphery with this...what companies in the U.S. and/or abroad are the largest industrial users of silver and how has their production and/or revenues been recently? If their output has been suffering, maybe we could infer that they might be having trouble obtaining silver.
One of the members who runs the Gold Is Money site believed that there was a big shortage of physical silver up until recently. He was having a hard time getting someone to mint the GIM silver rounds. When he contacted a mint to see if they would mint them with GIM's silver they told him that getting the silver was not the problem, but rather that they were so back up on orders. So now it appears he is not so sold on the physical siver shortage at least for large bars (1,000 ounces). This is why I too now believe that there is a lot of large bars silver out there and it will only be a matter of time before it is turned into small bars and at your local dealer. Remember, this is coming from a guy (me) who recently bought 140 ouncs at about 30% over spot. But you do what you think is best at the time and move on from there. I could sell any of you silver well over spot, but I wouldn't suggest that you buy it right now. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 09:21:30
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What happens when in the rush the big bars are all melted down for the premiums of the little bars? It obviously isn't being pulled from the ground any faster, though I did read of a company drilling and confirming a big high yield area recently. Could there be a big bar shortage in the future and how would that affect first the futures/spot market and the trickle down affect on the 1-10oz and 90% market.
Also I have noticed 90% seems to keeping somewhat inline with spot, not nearly so high a premium as bullion. |
The silver [is] mine, and the gold [is] mine, saith the LORD of hosts. Hag 2:8 [/b]
He created it. He controls it. He gave it to us for His use. Why did we turn from sound scriptural currency that PROTECTS us?
KJV Bible w/ Strong's Concordance: http://www.blueletterbible.org/
The book of The Hundreds: http://www.land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/boh/bookOfTheHundreds_v4.1.pdf
The Two Republics: http://www.whitehorsemedia.com/docs/THE_TWO_REPUBLICS.pdf
Good reading: http://ecclesia.org/truth/government.html
A number of people are educated beyond, sometimes way beyond, their intelligence. - Tenbears
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 09:37:58
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
What happens when in the rush the big bars are all melted down for the premiums of the little bars? It obviously isn't being pulled from the ground any faster, though I did read of a company drilling and confirming a big high yield area recently. Could there be a big bar shortage in the future and how would that affect first the futures/spot market and the trickle down affect on the 1-10oz and 90% market.
Also I have noticed 90% seems to keeping somewhat inline with spot, not nearly so high a premium as bullion.
A long term big bar physical shortage is what us long term investors are betting on. I have read and heard stores for over twenty years that it is on its way. Adjusted for inflation the price of silver currently doesn't reflect that at all. Either people like me are plain old wrong about a long term physical shortage or the market is way under priced due to manipulation or other factors that have driven the short term speculators out of it.
The fact that 90% is much closer to to spot is only more proof that the current physical shortage is not going to last. If there was a big bar shortage now then it too would be in huge demand and in the melting pots. |
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 10:43:29
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
To clarify a bit, could the present shortage of small bars default back, in the rush for profit, to create a shortage of large bars?
It could if the supply of physical was that tight and small bar demand was that huge. But it appears that industrial demand has fallen (due to the world wide recession) far more than the demand for small bars is making up for. As much as we like to think, the small bar silver sales is only a very small part of the total silver market. That may have or may be changing with the current economic crisis, but it would take a huge increase in demand for that to happen and with tight money right now my guess is that it is not currently happening. That is only my opinion based on what I see right now. If I am right then I expect to see a big small bar buying opportunity in the near future. If I am wrong then I still am holding on to what I currently have. A happy medium might be to buy now in smaller amounts as physical appears at a reasonable price above spot, in other words, dollar cost average your buys. But I'm not making any big over-priced panic buys now. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
343 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2008 : 01:53:45
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You must be logged in to see this link.
Here is a thread directly from Mr. Apmex himself. There are some comments from other dealers that are even more informative. |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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Why isn't the physical silver void being filled?
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