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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
 Posted - 10/11/2008 : 20:29:06
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I'm still pretty new to this hobby (ok, the board started in 2006 so we are all pretty new to this hobby). Since Feb 2008 I've seen Ni at $10, and now flurting with $5. I've seen 3 cent US copper pennies, and now the lighter Canadian Cu ones are just over a penny of melt.
Base metals got hammered along with silver, and oil, and pretty much all the commodities, but so did all most all the stocks on the market. A number of big financial sector stocks have gone to zero.
So what is the end game for our coin collections?
I see several possibilities:
1. Metal Prices rebound to the levels seen in 2007, or higher. Bullion Coins go back to being worth way more at melt than at face.
This may occur because places like China still need Cu and Ni, and there is just not enough of it around. Demand driven pricing.
2. The US dollar tanks - making commidities seem more expensive. Currently there is a huge demand for USD as investors around the world scramble to buy T-Bills, which they need USD to buy, but the massive creation of new dollars to fund bailouts will have an inflationary effect. Also, investors are going to want to sell those dollars and T-Bills to buy up bargian assets around the world again someday soon, reversing the current trends.
This will again lift the value of the metals we hold, and/or drop the purchasing power of the stated value of the coins, making them worth much more at melt then face again.
3. Base metal values stay down, but the bargian assets out there become very tempting. In a market crash, cash is king. One could cash in all one's coins at face to go buy cheap real estate, stocks, bonds, or other cheap assets in a depressed market. Had we placed this money in the market instead of held it as cash in coin form, we would not have near the purchasing power that we can enjoy right now. Plus, cash sitting in coin form is not subject to any bank failure or banking system collapse.
Thoughts?
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“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 20:40:10
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| The rules of the game are always changing. Inflation to deflation and then back again. The reasons I'm not dumping my hoard of U.S. nickels for PMs are because we may see a cash crunch deflation before we see a knee-jerk reflex back to a huge inflation. That and the fact any intrinsic valued money (even cupro-nickel) is going to hold up better in a hyperinflation than a fiat (paper) currency. |
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Think positive. |
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DesertTumbleweed402
Penny Pincher Member
USA
196 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 20:45:43
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| I agree with Ardent. I only have $135 dollars in cupro-nickel, but am holding onto it for the hyperinflation period of time. |
I enjoy taking long walks off short piers. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 21:07:23
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| At no time in recorded history have PMs NOT had value. Trust them. Regardless of what happens, they will have value. |
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Computer Jones
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1112 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 21:46:38
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Look at your PM purchases in terms of VALUE.
If you VALUE it, buy it if you can.
If something has 6000+ years of VALUE, I'm betting it will still have VALUE even if I buy it at what looks like an out of whack FRN price.
Gaze deeply into you crystal ball and absorb the future (if you happen to see 3 distinct single digit numbers make sure to put a dollar down and "box" 'em).
VALUE is absolute, do the best you can to obtain VALUE when you see it.
16:1 will make a comeback.
I'm betting it will be Ag VALUE coming back into line with the VALUE Au.
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There's profit if you melt things!!
8{> |
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kieblera5
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
859 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 22:17:47
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If you find a 1/4 oz gold coin that was stuck at the bottom of the ocean for 100 years. It would still be worth something. If you put a one hundred dollar bill at the bottom of the ocean today and 100 years later someone finds it, it won't have any value. Most likely, paper currency wouldn't exist, so they wouldn't know what it is anyway. |
Democracy is being allowed to vote for the candidate you dislike least.
Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you mercilessly with experience.
Caller number seven gets the Peace Prize!
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2008 : 22:32:31
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There's a reason that copper, lead, zinc, etc. are referred to as "base" metals, and gold and silver as "precious." If you're looking for long-term savings, or preservation of purchasing power, for heaven's sake buy gold (or at least silver). If you're still speculatively bullish on copper or nickel, by all means continue hoarding pennies and nickels. I would suggest, though, looking at the behavior of commodity prices during previous recessions/depressions (even inflationary ones).
(OK, I know that was controversial, so I'm now crouching under my desk ;-) |
"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." -Ron Paul, from _The Revolution: A Manifesto_ |
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Computer Jones
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1112 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2008 : 23:00:52
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Have no fear!
All PM's (I'm including Copper here) and base metals (even Lead) will be worth more FRN's in the future than they are worth today.
It may take some metallic elements a bit longer to arrive, but metals that always have had VALUE will always have VALUE now and in the future!
Buy what ever you can at a price you think is "fair" (or maybe even good) and keep it as long as you are able. If at some point in time you realize a 200% gain (in what ever is the common means of exchange), cash in. I figure a 200% gain is a reasonable amount to sell.
Otherwise you're investing for a generation to come and be happy you're able to give them a leg up... |
There's profit if you melt things!!
8{> |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 05:13:13
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there are 3 trends at play.
copper is not a pm but a base metal. its demand is highly dependent on economic cycles, hence its price is down.
u.s. is printing more dollars, which means everything priced in dollars will go up (eventually).
demand in india and china for automobiles, esp. electric cars, air conditioners, refridgerators, etc. is very positive for copper. i would not be surprised to see copper at much higher levels - perhaps $10/lb - in 5 or 10 years. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 06:22:58
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
The rules of the game are always changing. Inflation to deflation and then back again. The reasons I'm not dumping my hoard of U.S. nickels for PMs are because we may see a cash crunch deflation before we see a knee-jerk reflex back to a huge inflation. That and the fact any intrinsic valued money (even cupro-nickel) is going to hold up better in a hyperinflation than a fiat (paper) currency.
I agree with Ardent. Every fiat currency has ultimately died, and given the amount of paper money that the U.S. is printing right now to cover its financial obligations right now is just pulling us closer and closer to the day when our paper money will be seen as the bad check that it is. You can't go wrong with hoarding metals. I'm very bullish on silver, but it'd be good to start accumulating copper as well--even if/when the dollar crashes here, base metals are still in high demand in countries such as India and China, and silver will always be considered valuable, so whatever you can collect will be much better than paper money, er, "money."
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Edited by - Nickelless on 10/14/2008 06:27:10 |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
243 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 09:09:39
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The end game is this.
We all die.
Many many years later, whatever replaces people comes along and discovers our hoards. They wonder what they are.
Funnily enough, I have just gone through an experience like this. There was a load of gravel that was dredged up from the sea in West Africa that included a bunch of stone-age artifacts. Unlike at other sites where the artifacts were mostly things like axe heads, knife blades, stone fragments, these artifacts all appear to be decorative ("useless") articles. A great pile of apparently useless artifacts . . . sounds a bit like a hoard might look to a future archeologist.
Ten years ago we found a spot where people several hundred years earlier used to make axeheads out of talc, which they used as currency. Only last month we found the place where they mined the talc. We have not found any hoards of axeheads, however, just a few individual pieces. Nevertheless, hoarding is normal human behaviour (at least amongst those who look ahead). |
Not all who wander are lost. |
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What is the End Game?
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