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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
 Posted - 10/11/2008 : 19:40:23
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Is it possible to have to much in PMs? Of course of all my investments PM's are doing the best given the current stock prices.
I'm debating what to do.
Do I have too much silver and gold? Is that even possible?
Here is what I have as a ratio. I really have a bit more but I just divided the totals by a common number:
1oz Gold Eagles
25oz Silver Eagles (2006)
$50 face silver quarters.
I think the above probably makes up about 15% of my total assets, although that percentage might go up by a lot if the market crashes much more.
Is there any reason to get more? I have been debating selling half the gold as I could get about a 50% return on that.
Overall I was thinking to sell a bit of the silver too, maybe half of the face and about half of the silver eagles and then start buying up bits and pieces(considering the fact that prices may still drop significantly) where I can over the next thirty years of my life to build up a forever hoard.
I am thinking that it might soon be a good time to take some of the profit from PM's and put it into the stock market after it hits bottom. As long as the whole thing does not completely go under we really are looking at a potentially amazing buying opportunity for stocks.
Alternatively, Platinum and Palladium have taken serious hits. I have been debating purchasing some of those. Good, bad, neither?
All around I am just confused as to what to do. I get a strange feeling everyone else feels the same way though. Two years ago it seemed obvious to buy silver and gold, so that is what I did. Now there is nothing obvious. It seems like there is no telling what will happen.
Maybe it would be nuts to consider selling gold or silver at current prices as hard as it is to find any. But I also wonder about the huge demand of late. If there has supposedly been this huge demand, what happens if it goes away. The prices really could collapse and we might be stuck holding metals that aren't worth that much. That would then be a great buying opportunity. And I do like the idea of slowly growing a pile of gold and silver that I can touch and that would preserve some wealth(in addition to more "traditional" investments).
I'm kind of all over the place on this post. I just have some cash in the bank that I need to do something with. And if I sell some gold and silver I'll have a bit more cash. I don't want it to just sit in the bank. I really don't if it is time to buy or sell PM's.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 20:24:45
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| If you don't need the money right now and real bad, then I suggest that you, at the very least, hold on to what you currently have. A big problem with many PM investors is that they can't hold on to them long enough due to either money needs or more often impatience. |
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Think positive. |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 20:55:22
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I agree there are going to be some fantastic bargins in stocks, but how to time the bottom. There will/are going to be great bargians in real estate, and lots of other assets too as weaker hands are forced by debt and job losses to sell at any price to feed thier families. Many will sell assets cheap if additional panic sets in.
You are right - no one knows what to do. Investors are currently flocking to "riskfree T-Bills" making the dollar strong. At this moment cash seems to be king.
There is strong demand for physical silver and gold, but spot does not reflect this. Many investors look to the "traditional" investment of gold and silver right now for safety from coming inflation/deflation - and that makes a lot of sense.
I don't think you can have too much silver or gold ever - as long as you are a strong hand and are willing to wait. I saw an interesting TV ad that illistrated the point for me. Not even sure what they were selling (and it was not art), but here is what it showed:
A guy is at an art auction and the gavel comes down on an expensive painting. The buyer does a little happy dance then says "I want to sell the painting right now". Obviously this guy does not understand that quality art requires a longer term horizen then stocks do, yet can be a very good investment. Likewise, PMs require taking a longer term approach to investing then day trading stocks. Sure you can play with paper silver on a day trader basis, but I consider my PM collection to be an underpinning of my long term financial security and part of my retirement plan.
Will the huge demand for physical PM go away? Sure it will reduce - but there is ALWAYS buyers for PM. No one just dumps it in the street as worthless (unlike AIG or WaMu stock recently). Further, spot has to move up quite a bit to meet the "real price" that actual metal trades at today. If you own physical silver and can easily sell it for $4 over spot - why would you sell it for spot to an industrial user (absent a contract requiring delivery)? So once the industrial users run out of prepurchased stock, they will need to bid spot back up.
What to do? For me the answer is hold cash and PM until I am sure I'm ready to go buy some bargians. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 21:56:35
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Buy, buy, buy. Always buy. Or trade....
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 22:08:58
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What about lots of coins? I was thinking it might make sense to have a few hundred dollars in change. Maybe a thousand dollars or so in dimes and quarters, and in pennies.
Then you have copper(from the quarters and dimes)/zinc resources as well as cash on hand if needed.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 22:16:05
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History has shown that stocks can lose 80%-90% of their value during a crash (if stocks don't lose 100% of their value first) and can take decades to regain their pre-crash values. This happened concerning the crash of 1929 and stock prices regaining their pre-crash price in 1954.
Consider the price of gold during its bear market from 1980-2001. If my math is correct gold lost 76% of its value during that time but didn't fall to zero.
Now we are in a time of great uncertianty (to say the very least) and trying to figure out what to do is on everyone's minds.
Look to history as a guide. People never learn when it comes to financial manias and panics, they think "this time is different" while reality shows us again and again that nothing is different, with the possible difference of the level of losses being much bigger this time around. (Tulip bulbs, South Sea Bubbles, Florida Real Estate circa 1925 anyone?)
The only financial plan that makes sense is this
Hold some gold
Hold some silver
Hold some copper pennies
Hold some nickels (cupronickel or pure nickel)
Have some cash in bank
Have some cash in hand (or hidden in house)
The percentages of each is up to you, but just remember the pillow test before making any major moves in investing or saving-
When you go to bed and your head hits the pillow but you can't close your eyes fearing you could be wiped out tommorow, then your investment plan needs readjustment.
No one knows when this housing and banking and stock market mess will end, but the persons who keep their powder dry will end up ahead of the game and will be well off financially.
Financial experts, those who truly deserve the title experts, advise having at least 10% in precious metals.
"An old maxim is that, gold makes sense when nothing else makes sense. Today, not much does make sense." John Browne
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 22:20:57
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Welcome to the conundrum.
No one really knows what to do, myself included. With that caveat, I would say hold onto whatever PM's you've got, so long as your budget allows. They will NEVER be worthless. Paper currency and/or paper equities are a different story.
As I've stated before, and you alluded to in your post, PM's are not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a time tested store of wealth. Don't go overboard, and keep the big picture in mind. You can't eat PM's, and you can't live in a 401k. 
We've all been conditioned by Madison Ave to believe that we can live like kings in our golden years, if only we put our nest egg in Plan A or Plan B. Well, the king (plans A, B, et al) have no clothes. It's all been just another bubble, foisted on us by the pimps of fiat currency/ fractional reserve banking/ and endless debt without consequence.
So what was your question....? Once I get ranting, I just forget sometimes....
But seriously. Own tangibles that you can either: Eat, Make stuff to eat with, hunt stuff to eat with, barter for stuff to eat with, or just sit on until more rational times return. Hope that was helpfull.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 22:34:21
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William O'Neill, editor of Investors Business Daily and Author of several books likens trying to time the market bottom with trying to catch a falling knife. - A very dumb idea.
If you want to play with stocks, read his' books, they're only about $10.
And take that advice. In all seriousness, don't try to catch this bottom. Nobody is sure where it is, and it certainly won't look like other market bottoms. Even when things move up, they could be derailed by another out of the blue problem in the blink of an eye.
Keep the PMs. |
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Computer Jones
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1112 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 23:18:05
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You do not have to much silver. It will out perform your gold in the next 5 to 10 years.
If you are able, buy more silver (a lot more silver) and take physical possession.
If it loses value in 5 years I'll buy it from you at the price you pay today about $10.70 close today (caveat; no premiums above $1.50 spot at the time of purchase).
I'll be here in 5 years and I'll gladly provide FRN's so you, at least, will have what you put into your Ag.
How's that for guaranteed advice?
PS - When you sell in 5 years (or sooner if you get the chance for a 200% return) 5% kicked back my way for the advice is a rather modest commission. |
There's profit if you melt things!!
8{> |
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 23:36:41
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It looks like the ratio of the value of my gold to silver is about 1.28. That can be explained by the strange drop in silver prices over the past 6 months compared to gold. It used to be the other way around.
I suppose that would lead one to believe silver is the better bargain. I would like some more gold though, because what silver I do have is seriously hard to lug around. Anyone want to help me carry it?
Or maybe some time down the road I can just trade silver for gold to diminish the tonnage a bit. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2008 : 23:58:21
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quote:
Originally posted by darsemnos
What about lots of coins? I was thinking it might make sense to have a few hundred dollars in change. Maybe a thousand dollars or so in dimes and quarters, and in pennies.
Then you have copper(from the quarters and dimes)/zinc resources as well as cash on hand if needed.
This is the approach I'm taking, although at the moment I don't have any cash reserves per se. I've been throwing all available cash at silver wherever I've been able to find it, but in lieu of that, since tellers get slightly annoyed when I bring in unscheduled deposits of a few hundred dollars in zincs whenever I need emergency cash, they will probably be less annoyed if I bring in the same dollar amount in halves. Plus, there's a better chance of finding wild silver in rolls or boxes of halves.
Oh yeah, and when you accidentally drop a bag of $100 in halves, it makes a lot less mess in the bank lobby than when you drop $100 in pennies (not that this has happened to me... ) |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
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---------------
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Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 00:59:59
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I thought 06 was one of the lower mintage years for eagles. Keeping a full tube of them might be good for future numismatic value.
Your total amount is less than 2k. I've lost quite a bit more than that this week alone. Now of course I know people that have made a fortune this week. Like the Great Depression, the rich get richer. |
"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:06:01
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quote:
Originally posted by moboman
I thought 06 was one of the lower mintage years for eagles. Keeping a full tube of them might be good for future numismatic value.
Your total amount is less than 2k. I've lost quite a bit more than that this week alone. Now of course I know people that have made a fortune this week. Like the Great Depression, the rich get richer.
My total amount is substantially more than what I posted. I just reduced the numbers while keeping the ratios of different items the same.
Maybe it doesn't matter if I say how much I currently have. No one is going to rat me out right? Anyway, I'm sure that if big brother wanted to know he already knows. |
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:19:42
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quote:
Originally posted by darsemnos
quote:
Originally posted by moboman
I thought 06 was one of the lower mintage years for eagles. Keeping a full tube of them might be good for future numismatic value.
Your total amount is less than 2k. I've lost quite a bit more than that this week alone. Now of course I know people that have made a fortune this week. Like the Great Depression, the rich get richer.
My total amount is substantially more than what I posted. I just reduced the numbers while keeping the ratios of different items the same.
Maybe it doesn't matter if I say how much I currently have. No one is going to rat me out right? Anyway, I'm sure that if big brother wanted to know he already knows.
Good idea. I would never post amounts of what I had. Ratio wise, if you have 15% invested in PM's that is a good number.
I'd suggest holding on a little longer. With the spot price being 10.17, there isnt really much you can do.
I'm also looking at trying to get some more platinum and palladium. I assume prices are low because of the low number of new cars being built. When the auto industry picks back up, they will need these metals for the cats.
Maybe you could sell the gold eagle, get a 1/4 oz platinum eagle, and a one oz palladium bar. |
"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:21:57
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This is the only reason I'm suggesting holding a little longer, APMEX is sold out of their "top 40". You must be logged in to see this link.
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"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:33:47
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quote:
Originally posted by darsemnos
My total amount is substantially more than what I posted. I just reduced the numbers while keeping the ratios of different items the same.
Maybe it doesn't matter if I say how much I currently have. No one is going to rat me out right? Anyway, I'm sure that if big brother wanted to know he already knows.
Hey man, not to worry about gubbermint moles here. None of us would rat anyone else out because we want to protect our stashes as well. Think of everyone's relationship on this site as a mix of varying degrees of camaraderie, brotherhood and paranoia. We're pretty much all on the same page as each other, but we're not going to tell where we're hiding our stuff or (if we have an exclusive PM source) tell others where we're getting what we've got. We like each other, but we're not going to let someone else steal our lunch.
As for Big Brother, it's hard for him to keep tabs on cash transactions, and most PM sellers want to protect their customers. I doubt BB is trolling eBay looking for relatively small-time buyers either, so most of us on here are probably pretty safe. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
Edited by - Nickelless on 10/12/2008 01:36:33 |
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:43:37
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quote:
As for Big Brother, it's hard for him to keep tabs on cash transactions, and most PM sellers want to protect their customers. I doubt BB is trolling eBay looking for relatively small-time buyers either, so most of us on here are probably pretty safe.
Actually I think BB is investigating Ardent for price manipulation in the silver market. He gets back in the silver game and the price goes down.  HCBT will be investigated next as everytime he buys anything, the next day it goes down in price. |
"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 01:53:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by darsemnos
My total amount is substantially more than what I posted. I just reduced the numbers while keeping the ratios of different items the same.
Maybe it doesn't matter if I say how much I currently have. No one is going to rat me out right? Anyway, I'm sure that if big brother wanted to know he already knows.
Hey man, not to worry about gubbermint moles here. None of us would rat anyone else out because we want to protect our stashes as well. Think of everyone's relationship on this site as a mix of varying degrees of camaraderie, brotherhood and paranoia. We're pretty much all on the same page as each other, but we're not going to tell where we're hiding our stuff or (if we have an exclusive PM source) tell others where we're getting what we've got. We like each other, but we're not going to let someone else steal our lunch.
As for Big Brother, it's hard for him to keep tabs on cash transactions, and most PM sellers want to protect their customers. I doubt BB is trolling eBay looking for relatively small-time buyers either, so most of us on here are probably pretty safe.
Unfortunately I purchased my current stock through one bank wire. So it would be extremely easy for BB to find out. Also, I believe it is law that the credit union inform some local authority when a transaction is over a certain amount. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 10/12/2008 : 02:42:38
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| It is fine to post general info and questions here - but remember that all parts of this site are accessable on the internet to everyone everywhere. So if you don't want everyone everywhere to know your secrets, DON'T POST THEM HERE. And don't think we are just a secret little corner of the net that only a few people go too - realcent is top ranked on Google for a lot of key words and we have over 700 members, plus plenty of lurkers. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2008 : 08:50:13
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t-o-o much?
n-o (as long as you can afford it). |
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To much PM's?
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