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Ardent Listener
Administrator


USA
4841 Posts

Posted - 05/29/2008 :  09:40:04  Show Profile Send Ardent Listener a Private Message
Gold's set to extend its losing streak to three sessions

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:10 a.m. EDT May 29, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell as much as $21 an ounce Thursday to touch their lowest level in two weeks as strength in the U.S. dollar dulled investment appeal for the precious metal, setting prices up for a third-straight day of declines.
"Today's economic platter of statistics offers rich pickings for those who read the tea leaves therein in order to gauge the current tilt in the U.S. economy," said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a note to clients.
Gold for August delivery touched a low of $883.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the contract's lowest intraday level since May 15. It was last at $886.50, down $18.50, or 2%.
A firmer dollar has been adding pressure to commodities prices this week. With a stronger U.S. currency, dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, become more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 72.920, compared with 72.522 in late North American trading Wednesday. See Currencies.
The U.S. government raised its estimate of first-quarter economic growth and reported a modest rise in weekly jobless claims Thursday. See Economic Report.
Meanwhile, prices for crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel ahead of updated U.S. government data on petroleum supplies. See Futures Movers.
Silver prices followed gold prices lower. July silver shed 49 cents, or 2.8%, to trade at $16.92 an ounce.
July platinum fell $69.90, or 3.4%, to $1,997 an ounce while June palladium shed $5.70 to $430.55 an ounce on Nymex. July copper lost 11 cents to trade at $3.586 a pound.
On the equities side, the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI:amex gold bugs index equal-$ weight
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 421.96-6.88-1.60%




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Think positive.

Know Common Cents
Penny Pincher Member



195 Posts

Posted - 05/29/2008 :  21:49:39  Show Profile Send Know Common Cents a Private Message
Closing in on the end of the month and the Feds along with the Plunge Protection Team (PPT)decided to pump up the US buck today. The Fed has adopted the "strong dollar policy" for a long time now and that's nothing but hot air. You can't have low interest rates and a strong dollar at the same time. The Fed's recent posture has been to generally ignore the drooping dollar in an attempt to rescue the struggling banks and borrowers.

People have been led to believe that the Fed might actually start raising interest rates again, but the current economic fundamentals haven't changed. What really has changed? Millions of people are struggling each day just to afford basic necessities. Anything that we witness between now and the November election is noting but pure electioneering to achieve whatever cause du'jour that they happen to be hyping at that particular time.

Pleased to see that oil was down significantly today (again), but the gasoline price in the Milwaukee area has only dropped 6 cents in the past week. Yawn.

The Wall Street Journal today had a feature article that Dow and the larger chemical companies plan to raise the price of all oil-based plastic resins and finished products by as much as 20%. Oil-based plastic and other such compounds are virtually everywhere. It's impossible to avoid them.

Corrections in the gold and silver market aren't new. I don't particularly like to see the value of the PMs fall off of the cliff, but they'll return stronger and resume their upward climb. This presents a great buying opportunity whether you're looking for 2 silver rounds or 20 American Gold Eagles. My purchase today was in between those 2 parameters. I'll buy more if the market sags again tomorrow.

Here in Wisconsin, we have some of the highest property and gasoline taxes in the US. We're squeezed so much, I have to make my daughter wear penny boxes for shoes. At least she has an endless supply.
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nckt
Penny Collector Member



USA
304 Posts

Posted - 05/29/2008 :  23:20:35  Show Profile Send nckt a Private Message
It is good that the dollar is going up, but its bad that silver is going down, i cant decide! i know if i want to be a good citizen i want the dollar to go up, but i have all my money in silver and gold..
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2555 Posts

Posted - 05/30/2008 :  00:41:51  Show Profile Send moboman a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by nckt

It is good that the dollar is going up, but its bad that silver is going down, i cant decide! i know if i want to be a good citizen i want the dollar to go up, but i have all my money in silver and gold..



Ya well if oil stays high you'll be trading your silver/gold in for it.

"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"


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Nickelless
Administrator



USA
5580 Posts

Posted - 05/30/2008 :  01:56:00  Show Profile Send Nickelless a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by nckt

It is good that the dollar is going up, but its bad that silver is going down, i cant decide! i know if i want to be a good citizen i want the dollar to go up, but i have all my money in silver and gold..

Don't worry about the momentary drop in silver and the "stronger" dollar--too many investors are making this very mistake, looking at day-to-day or week-to-week changes instead of looking at the long term. The hard truth is that while things don't look especially good at the moment, long term they will make right now look like a Sunday school picnic. Don't focus on today. Focus on building up tangible resources that don't depend on the value of the dollar, focus on building and strengthening relationships with family, friends and neighbors, and prepare yourself spiritually for hard times as well. You're going to need all you can get to help yourself and, more importantly I believe, help others as well.

If you want to be a good citizen, the best thing you can do is educate others about the eventual end of the fiat money system that we could be seeing in this country, and to start taking common-sense steps to be able to provide for yourself, your family, friends and neighbors when everything eventually hits the fan. I just stumbled across the article below at You must be logged in to see this link. and pass it along to everyone you know and follow its advice:
quote:
Weimar Inflation in America

Probably almost everyone is familiar with the hyperinflationary episode that engulfed Germany after the First World War. That nation’s economy was crippled by monetary problems that resulted in dreadful personal hardships, even though up to that time Germany had achieved one of the highest living standards in the world.

The newly formed German government, named for the city where their constitution was drafted after the Kaiser’s abdication in 1918, kept pumping up the money supply. The process started relatively slowly, but quickly the pace of money creation accelerated.

The Weimar government was paying its bills on credit – just like Zimbabwe is now doing. The Weimar government was issuing currency in exchange for valuable goods and services that it was receiving, and the vendors of those goods and services accepted the newly issued currency in the expectation that they would be able to exchange it for goods and services of like value. However, they soon realized that they were deluding themselves. Prices were rising rapidly, with the consequence that a flight from the currency into commodities and other tangibles began.

There was no discipline on the creation of new currency, with the result that it was being issued to excess. Within a few short years, the German government eventually destroyed the Reichsmark, the currency it had been issuing, making the words Weimar Germany synonymous with hyperinflation, economic collapse, deprivation and personal hardship. All the wealth saved in Reichsmarks was wiped out.

For example, in his classic book, “Paper Money”, penned three decades ago under the pen name of Adam Smith, George J.W. Goodman recounts the story of Walter Levy, an internationally known German-born oil consultant in New York. Levy told him: “My father was a lawyer, and he had taken out an insurance policy in 1903. Every month he had made the payments faithfully. It was a 20-year policy, and when it came due, he cashed it in and bought a single loaf of bread.”

The following photo is from an insightful book by Bernd Widdig entitled “Culture and Inflation in Weimar Germany”. This photo shows one way in which people coped with rising prices.

As the inflation worsened, people sold whatever they could to survive. Widdig succinctly describes it in the caption to the above photo as follows: “The impoverished middle class has to sell its cherished possessions.”He should have correctly stated though that it was the “newly impoverished middle class”. They only became destitute after the inflation had destroyed their savings and ability to maintain their standard of living.

Sadly, the problems of Weimar Germany are now appearing in the US. To survive the impact of rising prices, Americans today – like Germans did eight decades ago – are selling cherished possessions, as explained in a recent story by Associated Press entitled “Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet”. The full article is available at the following link: You must be logged in to see this link.

AP explains how some Americans are trying to cope with the ravages of inflation: “To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother's dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful - families forced to part with heirlooms.” It is indeed no doubt painful, just as it was for the Germans in the photograph above, who surely must have been putting on a brave face for the photographer.

Confirmation of the AP story came a few days later on May 14th from an article in the Washington Post, which reported: “Nearly seven in 10 Americans are worried about maintaining their standard of living, as concern has spiked higher in just the past five months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Soaring consumer prices are a major challenge, with many people struggling under the weight of the rising costs of fuel, food and health care. The poll shows that the weak economy and rising prices are high among voters' concerns, and contribute to a souring national mood in this presidential election year. More than eight in 10 said the country has veered pretty seriously off-track, and a separate poll released yesterday by ABC showed economic anxiety at its highest level on record since 1981. Overall, 68 percent of people surveyed in the new Post-ABC poll said they were concerned about their ability to keep up their lifestyles, a jump of 17 percentage points since December. The increase cuts across party and income lines.”

Crude oil is $132. Corn is $6.The cost of everything is rising. Inflation is worsening, and it’s not hard to understand why. M3, the total quantity of dollars, is now growing by 17% per annum. Weimar inflation has arrived in America.

The Federal Reserve is following the footsteps of the central bank in Weimar Germany. It is the same path taken by many central banks that have issued countless fiat currencies based on nothing but government promises. It is the path to the fiat currency graveyard, and the once almighty US dollar – which long ago used to be “as good as gold”, just like the Reichsmark once held that same exalted title – is knocking at the graveyard’s gate.

This insight about the importance of gold and shortcomings of fiat currency is not suprising, nor is it new. Here is what Rep. Howard Buffett, father of Wall Street legend Warren Buffett, had to say on May 4, 1948. “Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion.”

Absent that compulsion, the dollar is going the way of the Reichsmark. Don’t count on the US government to do the right thing and make the dollar redeemable into gold. Instead, take those steps necessary to protect yourself and your family to prepare for the dollar’s inflationary collapse. Buy gold. Buy silver. Avoid the US dollar.


Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively

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Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp

Edited by - Nickelless on 05/30/2008 01:57:06
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1641 Posts

Posted - 05/30/2008 :  07:31:34  Show Profile Send horgad a Private Message
Just some "fun" stuff...not to be taken too seriously.

There is a chart that I have been watching the overlaps/mirrors the big gold market in the 70's and early 80s with the current gold bull. The way the chart overlaps we are at around 1975. So the good news is if history repeats, we have about 5 more years to go in the commodity gold bull market with a finish around $2,000 an ounce.

The bad news is that there was a huge shake-out from 1975-1977 where gold plunged 25% before making its final spectacular 3 year run up of about 150%.

So if history repeats. We should hit $1,200 - $1,300 in the next 6 months or so. And then fall to $800 over the following two years. And then climb to $2,000 in the following three years.

No matter what happens bull markets never go straight up...



All credit goes to bart13 on Silicon Investor for this chart and his website You must be logged in to see this link.

Edited by - horgad on 05/30/2008 07:37:01
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misteroman
Administrator



USA
2565 Posts

Posted - 05/30/2008 :  10:52:03  Show Profile Send misteroman a Private Message
was gold $2k an ounce back the or is it adjusted?I never thought it got that high.

Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area.
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1641 Posts

Posted - 05/30/2008 :  11:35:58  Show Profile Send horgad a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by misteroman

was gold $2k an ounce back the or is it adjusted?I never thought it got that high.



It is adjusted. I believe that it is based on the percentage of the move. So the old bull market started at something like $50 dollars and ounce and went to $750 which is only a $700 move but a 15X gain. The new bull started at $250 and a 15X gain from there is a $3500 move.

Hope that makes sense. The guy is a kind of a chart guru and he frequently goes way over my head. If you want to know more, you will probably have to ask him.

Anyhow, I am hoping he is wrong and that we don't have to see $800 gold again before we see $2000, but it would not be that surprising given how bull markets typically play out. Waiting through 2 year of down in gold won't be fun and it will shake many, many people out and trick them into selling at the bottom...which is exactly what markets likes to do.

Again all this is mostly just for fun...
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