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lukeownzu
Penny Collector Member
364 Posts |
 Posted - 04/14/2008 : 22:11:01
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Lol I just realized what this means after seeing it in a post with it actually spelled out in another post below it.
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double dot
Penny Sorter Member
USA
55 Posts |
Posted - 04/14/2008 : 23:06:03
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WTSHTF has several whens upcoming. Best guess per shadowstats is Winter 2008 double digit inflation officialy recognized - yet still undereporting real higher number, and 2010 hyperinflation - defined as when the $100 bill becomes toilet paper.
You must be logged in to see this link. |
Crouching Teller, Hiding Copper |
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
343 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 01:08:28
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You must be logged in to see this link.
This link actually explains what it means. Everybody else uses it as a euphemism for "I don't know what to expect." |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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JSutter
Penny Pincher Member
214 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 07:10:02
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| I nominate "WTSHTF" for buzzword status. I think some people are actually sitting back praying that it happens. |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 09:49:07
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How do you have hyperinflation in a depression?
You have a depression due to lack of demand for goods because of deflation. People want to hold cash, because it is getting more value by the day.
If you have hyperinflation, then you will have mass demand for goods. No one wants to hold cash. They want hard assets.
I just can't see demand dropping and the prices increasing at the same time.
During the 1930s in the USA price of goods actually decreased. I don't know a lot about Germany's hyperinflation, but I doubt demand for hard goods was down. I have heard stories of people wanting to be paid daily to go buy goods before the money became less valuable. Doesn't sound like lower demand.
Any examples of a depression with hyperinflation? I could be wrong but I think someone picked two awful things and put them together for a title of an article. I don't know if both can occur at the same time.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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MormonMetal
Penny Pincher Member
USA
150 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 10:11:38
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| I like TEOTWAWKI more. (the end of the world as we know it) |
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JSutter
Penny Pincher Member
214 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 10:20:49
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| Hyperflation is caused by a currency losing its value thereby increasing the cost to consumers of products. It can happen in tandem with a recession or depression. We are in a recession now and the dollar is also losing it's value. If OPEC were to decide to accept Euros for oil or China or another country holding large US cash reserves decided to start dumping them and the decline of the dollar intensified at a more rapid pace, while the recession continued then you could have both depression and hyperinflation occuring side by side. hyperinflation has less to do with demand for products than with the value of the underlying currency used to purchase the products. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 10:32:20
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quote:
How do you have hyperinflation in a depression?
It happens...case in point Zimbabwe. The reason that it can happen is that the value of our currency and a lot of the goods that we consume are reliant on factors outside of our country. This allows prices to stay high even for some things even as demand collapses.
Meanwhile other internal prices should follow the more straight forward laws of supply and demand. Things that will fall and/or continue to fall in a depression should include wages, houses, cost of services, and maybe some locally produced goods.
Unfortunately even prices of locally produced goods may be pushed up because of the cost to import oil and the increasing incentive to export the goods for real money (example: food) instead of sell them locally for trashed dollars. |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 12:47:07
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quote:
Originally posted by horgad
quote:
How do you have hyperinflation in a depression?
It happens...case in point Zimbabwe. The reason that it can happen is that the value of our currency and a lot of the goods that we consume are reliant on factors outside of our country. This allows prices to stay high even for some things even as demand collapses.
Meanwhile other internal prices should follow the more straight forward laws of supply and demand. Things that will fall and/or continue to fall in a depression should include wages, houses, cost of services, and maybe some locally produced goods.
Unfortunately even prices of locally produced goods may be pushed up because of the cost to import oil and the increasing incentive to export the goods for real money (example: food) instead of sell them locally for trashed dollars.
Ok I guess I can see that happening if the local economy crashes, and most goods are imported. I just don't see that happening in the USA. If the USA crashes, then the world economy is going to tank at least. If the dollar is trash, then I doubt most other currencies will do that well either. You are basically on a dollar standard in a large part of the world. The countries that aren't pegged to the dollar, or have most of their reserves in dollars are rare, and I bet they are for the most part decent size trading partners with the USA.
Zimbabwe local economy could tank without hurting the rest of the world. USA economy couldn't tank without hurting the world economy.
I am not saying either couldn't happen here, but I just can't see both happening here at the same time.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 13:12:46
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*****
I like TEOTWAWKI more. (the end of the world as we know it)
*****
Must be a James Wesley Rawles fan here with the use of TEOTWAWKI. |
"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2008 : 14:35:13
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quote:
I just don't see that happening in the USA. If the USA crashes, then the world economy is going to tank at least.
-SWUSC
That is a good argument (the US is no Zimbabwe) and that thought keeps me on my toes trying to peer down the road at what might be coming next. However, at least for now, I think that what is happening in the US is a form of stagflation (inflation plus recession) with some stuff going up and other stuff going down.
But what happens next. Do we continue with worsening stagflation or do we move from here into a more pure form of depression or hyperinflation? Beats me and your guess is as good as mine, but if I had to say I would guess worsening stagflation at least for the next 9 months or so and past that I won't even try to take a stab at.
Also, I will say, as a specific example, that I have been impressed (and even surprised) with the ability of the world demand for copper to stay strong enough to keep the copper price trend moving up even while US copper demand is getting kicked in the groin. Six months ago I would have given 50/50 odds that the copper price was going to get drug down by the US housing and auto markets. Now it is clear that US demand for copper is not as important to the copper price as I thought...
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WTSHTF
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