| Author |
 Topic  |
|
Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
 Posted - 03/20/2008 : 20:01:51
|
Remember the BIG PICTURE.
50-70 TRILLION UNFUNDED FEDERAL OBLIGATIONS over the next 20 years.
The Fed printing money as fast as the presses will run, creating inflation, killing the dollar.
Most of the world has lost faith in the dollar, and many nations would love to see it collapse anyway.
The drop over the last few days is due to DUMB money jumping back into equities, led like the sheeple they are by the media which is owned by the puppet masters behind the whole mess.
In the long run, a couple days, (or weeks) of PM's being down amounts to less than a mouse fart in a hurricane. Just a little profit taking by the GEL-HAIRED BOYS on WS. The cold hard fact is that real tangible assets will outperform FRN's in the long run. Sit tight. Tip your hat to the bi-polar traders who made 5-7% (less fees and commisions) in a month. Tell them how smart you think they are  And BUY LOW! |
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
|
 |
|
|
Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
|
|
starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2008 : 06:50:32
|
| Try to drop that $400 once a month. You will NOT be sorry. |
|
|
|
Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
|
|
Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
|
|
starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2008 : 13:06:07
|
I can tell that my dealer's silver inventory is getting low. He has no full ASE tubes, and the quality is getting worse. I'll be trying a few new dealers next month to see what they've got.
Good luck on eBay! I hope that I won't be bidding against you... |
|
|
|
mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
243 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2008 : 10:32:29
|
Guys, there is a problem with the silver market. We went down to the precious metals desk at the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) in Toronto on Thursday. There was a major line-up of people trying to buy on the dip and the place had no silver. None. They could make no guarantees as to when there would be any. Most of the others in the line were trying to buy silver too. The combination of a sudden drop in the price combined with a lack of supply speaks of some kind of a desperation move--I think most likely someone needing to deliver a large amount at a price that was agreed upon some time ago--and the price ran up and they couldn't deliver.
My local coin shop was out of silver Maple Leafs, and I cleaned out all of his Eagles. He confided in me that earlier in the week he had gone to BNS and bought all of their silver--and it was only 140 ounces. |
Not all who wander are lost. |
|
|
|
wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2008 : 14:25:03
|
quote:
Silver is more abundant, cheaper of course, and has a greater industrial element to its demand and price.
Actually, while silver may have been or still be more abundant in the earth, it is no longer more abundant above ground.
For 500-2000 years Gold stores have done nothing but grow and grow and grow!
Silver, likewise was accumulating up until the electronic and industrial age. Now it is annually consumed in thousands of applications, and the possessable quantity of silver has done nothing but drop, drop, drop.
WHile the numbers are hard to pin down, due in part to the secrecy of holding gold and the DANGEROUS OVER ABUNDANCE of paper silver(funds, and certificates that may or may not own silver to back the paper)........
....There may very well be more ABOVE GROUND GOLD than Silver.
That means Silver could be more rare than Gold.
And, since silver naturally occurs higher up in the ground than gold, and many 'easy access' mines have been depleted... accessable 'in-ground' silver may less abundant as well. |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
|
|
|
wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2008 : 14:29:22
|
About the question of 'silver stalling':
If you notice, the ratio between silver and gold had dropped from about 56:1 less than 6 months ago, down to 48:1 this past month.
So for silver to 'stall' and gold 'spike up' was just a minor correction of that ratio...maybe back up to 50:1.
But it won't stay this way.
And if you notice, the ratio is now about 53:1....with is an opportunity for SILVER. Even selling gold or trading it into silver is a GOOD and advantageous move right now!
Silver is down, the ratio is up.....all signs point to BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!! BUY!!
This next time when it goes up it won't stop until it hits $25 (maybe even $30) an ounce. |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
|
|
|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2008 : 19:05:06
|
"Silver is down, the ratio is up.....all signs point to BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!! BUY!!"
I took your advice and bought a 100 ounce Engelhard silver bar today. I got it at $16.75 per ounce and he delivered..............found it on my local Craigslist. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
|
|
|
NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2008 : 06:35:24
|
Maybe silver hasn't stalled, maybe it's just refueling....
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
|
|
|
NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2008 : 06:37:59
|
Oh yeah, my dealer has plenty of silver and gold, no shortage. He did say he has been busy though.
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
|
|
|
Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2008 : 20:26:17
|
Hmmm.... Silver price manipulation?
You must be logged in to see this link.
Archives
TED BUTLER'S ARCHIVES
TED BUTLER COMMENTARY
March 24, 2008
ALL IN
(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)
I just knew I had used the above title previously. Since I do try to avoid it, I had to look it up. Sure enough, I had, on May 24, 2005. You must be logged in to see this link. I don’t re-read my old articles normally, but I made an exception in this case, since I‘m reusing the title.
It was a brief article, mainly centered on the bullish market structure in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) on silver. I also commented on the particularly bullish structure in gold and copper and the bearish structure in the dollar. Since I usually confine my remarks to silver and gold, I was naturally curious to see if the old article was on the mark. Since silver was $7, gold $400, copper $1.30, and the Euro $1.20 at that time, I was relieved to see no one would have been misled. To be sure, there were some subsequent short-term ups and downs, as the dealers maneuvered the tech funds in and out of the market, but the COTs were unusually reliable then.
While past results and analysis are never a guarantee of the future, the reason for me recycling the old title was precisely for the same reason I had when I first used it three years ago, namely, to convey that it was time to load the boat with silver. This is another unique opportunity.
Almost all of my articles over the past several months have cautioned about the possibility of a sharp sell-off, due to the historically large concentrated net short position of the largest traders in COMEX silver and gold futures. I wasn’t sure we would get a sharp sell-off or when it might come, but if we did get one, I was certain as to its cause. The 48-hour, $4 silver sell-off and $100 gold sell-off occurred for one reason and one reason only - the big shorts yanked the rug out from under the tech fund longs. Again.
Just for the benefit of newer readers (as longtime readers already know this), the tech funds are large pools of investment money that buy and sell futures contracts on every commodity based solely upon price, or technical, signals. They buy on the way up and sell on the way down, as moving averages are penetrated in either direction. They have no interest in the commodity itself, nor its value or supply/demand fundamentals, just the price action. In other words, the tech funds buy and sell many tens of millions of ounces of silver, for example, with no concern about the metal itself. All the tech funds care about is price movement and trying to capture as much of a price trend as they can. (I am not offering a value judgment of their behavior, just an explanation).
The dealers, or large commercial traders (mostly big banks), also know how the tech funds operate and always take the opposite side of whatever the tech funds buy or sell as counterparties. In my opinion, the dealers rig the market by colluding with one another against the tech funds. They do this by withholding their collective bids and offers at opportune times, namely, when they know the tech funds are about to react to a major moving average price signal. This is precisely what occurred in the 48-hour price massacre in gold and silver.
This collusion among the dealers against the tech funds is as illegal as the day is long. It has the effect of setting the price of silver (and other commodities) without regard to real world fundamentals. This is why I have petitioned the CFTC and the exchange regulators for almost 25 years. But I’ll save that story for another day. Today there are more pressing issues.
The sharp sell-off has resulted, in my opinion, in the cleansing out, or removal, of most, if not all, of the technical fund leveraged long positions in silver and gold. I think the amounts come to 20,000 contracts (100 million ounces in silver), and 75,000 contracts in gold COMEX futures (7.5 million ounces). This is my analysis, but we will have to wait until this week’s COT Report is issued to verify the actual figures.
The important thing is that, if the tech funds have, in fact, been largely liquidated by the dealers, then the reason for a potential sharp sell-off has also been eliminated. If one were cautious about being fully-invested in silver because of the possibility of a sharp tech fund sell-off, there is little reason to maintain such caution. Certainly, if anyone held off buying silver because of anything I had written about a potential sell-off, he or she should hold off no longer. Lower prices from here are not to be feared, as they will only strengthen the bullish case.
In truth, it was somewhat easier to analyze the COTs years ago, as the buying point set-ups took weeks, if not months, to develop. This permitted an analyst the luxury of time in deciphering the state of the market. But 24-hour electronic trading on the COMEX has changed all that. Since there has there been no change in the COMEX’s dominance on the day to day pricing of silver and gold, the round the clock trading capability has drastically shortened the time necessary for the dealers to ambush the tech funds. Never have they done it in as short a time span as what they just completed.
But it is not just the suspected clean-out of the tech funds that suggests to me that caution about buying silver should now be tossed to wind. There are other issues that are hard to ignore. I get the strong sense that everything may be falling into place for the real upside explosion in silver. In fact, I think the clean-out of the tech funds, which was compressed into such a short time frame, is directly related to those other issues. It’s why the sell-off took place.
One of my long-term tenets was that there would be an inevitable shortage of silver at some point. I know that sounded preposterous to many at the time I made such statements. Further, since the big dealer shorts were very much involved in the day to day world distribution and supply business, they would necessarily have some advance inkling of when the silver shortage would commence. I then asked myself what I would do, if I were them, when I got the signal that the shortage had arrived?
The only plausible answer was that, in that event, they would position themselves in the most effective and efficient way as possible for the certain coming price rise. That would mean one thing - orchestrating a large price decline on the COMEX. That would generate as much tech fund selling as possible, and enable the dealers to buy back as many contracts as they could and covers as much of their short position as possible. I think that is what has just occurred.
As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits.
The investment rush for many forms of retail silver and the subsequent depletion of local dealer inventory comes as a result of the initial unprecedented demand for Silver Eagles. The unexpected demand for Silver Eagles, starting in November. It kicked off a rush to buy other retail forms of investment silver, such as rounds, small bars and bags of U.S. silver coins.
Since the Mint could not supply sufficient quantities of Silver Eagles to the investing public, many eager buyers took what forms of silver were available, rather than wait for new Eagles to be produced and delivered later. There should be no doubt that my good friend and mentor, Izzy, kicked off the whole shebang with his article extolling people to buy Silver Eagles. (A new article by him appears at the end of this piece).
What does a shortage in silver mean? In a word, everything. If the initial clues of a silver shortage get transformed to the industrial silver users and large investors, in terms of increased physical demand for 1000-ounce bars, the industry standard, then say good-bye (and good-riddance) to the silver manipulation. The big dealers can sell unlimited quantities of manipulative paper silver contracts created from thin air, but they can’t sell real 1000 oz bars unless they have them. If they don’t have the real goods and there is a surge in demand for real bars, the jig is up. That’s why I encourage you to insist on securing the serial numbers of every 1000 oz bar held in storage for you
The fact that there is unprecedented demand for silver at precisely the same time as a sharp and sudden sell-off in the price, should confirm to even the most obstinate skeptic the existence of a silver manipulation. So clear is this evidence of manipulation, that there is no longer any credible public denial of it. Now only the CFTC and the NYMEX contest its existence, as they must at all costs.
Finally, an often repeated message for gold-only investors. If you own no (or little) silver, and have insufficient capital with which to invest in silver currently, please switch some gold into silver. You must clearly see the evidence of a growing silver shortage. The clues and reports of shortage are, most emphatically, silver specific. There is no such shortage in gold, nor will there ever be, in my opinion. That’s because gold is not industrially consumed to the extent of silver. That does not mean gold can’t soar in price. In fact, I hope it does, as it will underscore the value of silver. But your common sense should tell you that a precious metal in shortage must climb more sharply in relative value, compared to a precious metal not in a shortage, especially when the shortage-prone metal is so undervalued to begin with.
No one reading these words has any hands-on experience in dealing with a potential shortage of silver. That’s because the world has never experienced a shortage of silver. There is nothing in the specific history of silver to guide us to expected price behavior in a shortage. The closest examples we can draw upon involves the price action of essential commodities that are rationed by natural disasters, like ice or gasoline when a hurricane knocks out power for a week or two. With such a potential silver shortage possibly at hand, coupled with the recent intentional sell-off on the COMEX, it is time to be all in.
|
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
|
|
|
|
WilliamC
Penny Collector Member
USA
471 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2008 : 20:48:05
|
And here I am still waiting for apmex to ship out my last two silver purchases.
One of them they haven't even received the payment for yet.
Knowing my luck they've run out and will refund my money instead :( |
Sorting In Northwest Mississippi |
|
|
|
wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2008 : 20:12:14
|
Two days ago I traded a little gold for a little silver, and after the loss both ways, I'm was still back to the current ration 51.5 to 1 (two days ago the ratio was 54 to 1..but dealer gets his cut).
Anyway....wish I had an IRA or something to convert into Silver eagles or something... but no, little cash on hand, mouths to feed, $200 tied up in copper cents.... doesn't leave much for the silver monster,
But I put back what I can! |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
|
|
|
NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2008 : 20:20:34
|
I try to buy at least a little every week. It doesn't have to be much at a time. A little at a time adds up over time....
Deal
p.s. In fact, I picked up some SAE's this past weekend. |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
|
|
|
Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
|
|
starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 21:04:51
|
"...the world has never experienced a shortage of silver." Nor will it ever.
|
|
|
|
misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 22:32:31
|
What are you guys paying for your junk silver?
Derek |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
|
|
|
fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 23:02:00
|
quote:
"...the world has never experienced a shortage of silver." Nor will it ever.
Herbert and Nelson Bunker Hunt would beg to differ. |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
|
|
|
HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 00:09:42
|
quote:
Originally posted by misteroman
What are you guys paying for your junk silver?
Derek
I bought some for 12x the other night. |
If your percentages are low.. just sort more. If your percentages are high.. just sort more.
Now selling Copper pennies. 1.6x plus shipping. Limited amounts available. |
|
|
|
Topic |
|
|
|
Why has silver stalled?
Forum Locked
