| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
Corsair
Penny Hoarding Member
811 Posts |
 Posted - 09/06/2010 : 00:38:45
|
Poll Question:
Here's a hypothetical:
Let's say the melt ban on copper pennies is lifted tomorrow. Alright, alright, on Tuesday. You wake up Tuesday morning, and the news says the ban has been lifted. All local scrap yards and recycling centers are giving a fair rate on spot price for all copper pennies. Just like aluminum cans, they can't give you full spot, but it's pretty close.
Now, there is a huge rush on banks that afternoon. Everyone wants to get pennies and make a quick profit. Does that mean your banks will sell you out and please the new customers? Or will they remain loyal to all the years you've done business with them? I can't say that.
So here's the question. On that first day, knowing what may (or may not) come from your banks in the future, what percent of your copper hoard would you cash in, and why?
|
|
So long, Realcent 1. Come visit us at Realcent.org! |
|
|
dakota1955
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2212 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 07:42:26
|
| great question to ask |
 |
|
|
PreservingThePast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1572 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 08:52:00
|
That is a good question and the results could probably be comparable to thinking along the lines of the amount of silver coins that was melted in the late 60s to the present. Since I have so few, I really don't know what I would do if this were to happen.
I am sure that if your scenario presented itself, then the coin shops would immediately begin buying at a premium as they do for the silver coins. Of those sold to them, they would cherry pick for the best coins to hold on to, if any, and if they didn't have a ready customer chomping at the bit to buy the coins from them immediately, then they would turn around and sell to a smelter.
So, I doubt that anyone on here wanting to sell would need to go to a recycling facility for long, if at all, to sell their 95% copper pennies if/when this scenario comes to be.
Enjoy your coin searches, everyone.  |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 09:29:26
|
I view my coppers as part of my essential stash. I guess I'll have coppers around forever and I will probably never sell. It's kind of like insurance for bad times and it gives you comfort to know you got them.
When the melt ban is lifted, the scrap yards will be overwhelmed by those looking for a quick profit by dumping their coppers. It would sort of be like it was in 1980 when everyone was cashing in their SILVER coins - you could only sell if you were willing to take a 50% discount from spot. I think if you were considering selling your coppers to the scrap yard, you will have to wait at least a year until the supply of coppers turned in to the scrap yards diminishes. However, once the melt ban was lifted, the copper penny bag market would bloom, as the coins would be preceived by the investing public to have MELT value just like SILVER coins.
When the melt ban was lifted, while it will more profitable to sort pennies, it will be folks like us sorting like crazy to get as many pennies we can. However, I would look for the banks to recognize the demand and put a service charge on every box we request. Fees are where the banks make their best profits. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
Edited by - Country on 09/06/2010 09:35:28 |
|
|
|
wheeler_dealer
Penny Collector Member
USA
402 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 09:45:46
|
Well said country. I agree there would probably be a rush to sell and make a profit. Banks would probably add a service charge to customers for coin rolls. If they lifted the ban and allowed smelting most "scrap" would probaly be sold to overseas markets and if it came back (unlikely) it would be incorporated into finished product with the added mark up.
Our bags of copper while marketable with a premium may better serve as a source of true hard tangible asset. |
|
|
|
NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 10:10:10
|
I'd sell little if any. I'd concentrate on getting as many unsorted bags/boxes as possible. Save the sorting and selling for later.
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
|
|
|
hawkeye
New Member
11 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 10:31:29
|
| I doubt if I would sell any, mainly because I want to keep it and I don't have that much yet. I would be more interested in finding someone to melt my pennies and turn them into bars or something like that. Good question. |
|
|
|
ScottyTX
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
508 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 10:47:53
|
quote:
Originally posted by hawkeye
I doubt if I would sell any, mainly because I want to keep it and I don't have that much yet. I would be more interested in finding someone to melt my pennies and turn them into bars or something like that. Good question.
Humm my first thought to this is, if it came to this and pennies started to dry up, then basically you would be doing the same thing as melting a American silver eagle down to make a 10/100 oz bar. I'm not sure I would like to melt down these nice little rounds minted and guaranteed by the government of their purity. Just my thoughts, great thing is if you actually can hold your assets you can do whatever you please with it!! |
|
|
|
TXBullion
Penny Collector Member
374 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 11:10:45
|
Like Deal Said, Id focus on raw coin accumulation because I think it would be a small window before the fees kicked on. Also, I dont think the banks would have loyalty and again, I think the fees would be kicked on.
Hopefully it wont be tomorrow so we can still accumulate a few.
Not to hiJack the thread, but realistically, when do you think this day could possibly happen? |
|
|
|
rodebaugh
Penny Collector Member
USA
377 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 11:12:45
|
Sell not one cent....however place many orders with many banks....without regard to fees.
Have a Ryedale rush shipped and get serious. |
http://rodebaugh.ecrater.com/ |
|
|
|
TXBullion
Penny Collector Member
374 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 11:21:01
|
quote:
Originally posted by rodebaugh
Sell not one cent....however place many orders with many banks....without regard to fees.
Have a Ryedale rush shipped and get serious.
My only concern with fees is this, lets say a bank charges 5 dollars a box for a fee. 25 dollar box yields 5 dollars copper so with the fee your already in them for 2 cents a piece with no other costs.
Also, it may be a good idea to give the Portland Mint a call  |
|
|
|
Corsair
Penny Hoarding Member
811 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 11:30:31
|
Many of you said not only would you keep everything, you would ramp up sorting. Do you think this would be possible? I think the rush on banks just in the first week would be enormous. I wonder if all the managers would see dollar signs in their eyes and start tossing up a fee - even for you, their old friend.
My next question is, if it was a week before the bill was passed, and Congress was debating it, and only us here on Realcent knew, what would you do? Remember, the average Joe isn't paying attention yet - he doesn't know this is going to double the value of that big jar of pennies he has. One week prior to the melt ban being lifted, what would be your plan of action? |
So long, Realcent 1. Come visit us at Realcent.org! |
|
|
|
Dvorak
New Member
USA
19 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 12:58:21
|
I agree with a few of the others (Country et al.).
There would be a glut of sellers keeping prices down. Refineries would be backed up and able to charge high premiums.
In my experience, I want to do the opposite of Joe Six-pack, so I'd be buying with the strong hands. |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 13:34:55
|
quote:
Originally posted by Corsair
Many of you said not only would you keep everything, you would ramp up sorting. Do you think this would be possible? I think the rush on banks just in the first week would be enormous. I wonder if all the managers would see dollar signs in their eyes and start tossing up a fee - even for you, their old friend.
My next question is, if it was a week before the bill was passed, and Congress was debating it, and only us here on Realcent knew, what would you do? Remember, the average Joe isn't paying attention yet - he doesn't know this is going to double the value of that big jar of pennies he has. One week prior to the melt ban being lifted, what would be your plan of action?
Once the demand for pennies is on, look for the banks to charge fees to everybody like us. I guess if you were a commericial enterprise, the fees would be waved probably.
If I knew there was the possibility of the melt ban being lifted a week from now, I would go to every bank in which I have an account and order as many boxes of pennies that they would allow me to order. I'd see if I could do it again, the week afterwards too. Of course, this will depend on the relationships that have been built up over the years with the bank vault tellers and the limitations that the bank branch itself has to order coins on a weekly basis. Services, such as Brinks, may have some maximum amount of coins that any one branch can order each week. If you've got the penny boxes or bags, you can sort them at your leisure.
I think the melt ban would not be lifted until the penny was proposed to be discontinued; which I think is a possibility soon here in the USA. Most people would not mind to see the penny just go away. If that is in the works, you would first see a suspension of mint production of the penny, probably before any formal announcement is made. Further, it would not surprise me if the mint asked its member banks to return all pennies in their vaults and subsequent pennies turned in by bank customers. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
Klark Cent
Penny Sorter Member
USA
68 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 23:18:56
|
I think the consensus is that scrapyards would offer "#2 copper" rates, which I think is around 72% of melt. So maybe 1.65x with current copper prices.
But I suspect the copper cents would trade at a small premium to that on eBay, realcent, etc the same way junk silver coins trade at a higher price than a scrapyard would offer. So maybe 1.8x or 1.9x?
I might be wrong about this stuff. Feel free to correct me.
As for the poll, I intend to not sell any of my copper cents for a LONG time (like decades). |
|
|
|
Klark Cent
Penny Sorter Member
USA
68 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 23:26:35
|
Also if I planned to sell, I would want sort out the 1981s and 1980s and sell them first. I imagine the 1959s-1968s (or whatever) will be worth a little more than the 1980s-1981s a few decades from now.
And obviously I would save the BU/AUs and sell the uglies first.
I actually hope the melt ban remains in place until I can accumulate a larger hoard. I figure the going rate for copper lincolns will likely be the same 25 years from now whether the melt ban gets lifted in 2010, 2020 or 2030.
But it will definitely make life interesting when that day comes. |
Edited by - Klark Cent on 09/06/2010 23:36:26 |
|
|
|
Corsair
Penny Hoarding Member
811 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 23:45:59
|
Klark-
I disagree with you over cashing in early 80's first as opposed to 59-79. I can understand your concept, but if we look at what silver coins have done, I don't think there would be much of a price change. As for junk silver, a quarter from '63 or '64 wouldn't net much less than a quarter from the thirties or forties. Same with Roosie dimes. A 1946 is worth today as much as a 1964 is.
The only copper cents (and I say only, but not counting Wheats and the like) I will never cash in to the smelter are S mints. I think those will be your safer bet than LMCs from 1959-1970 or so. There were just so few made in relation to other coins. I think a great way to judge that is to look at member Rodebaugh's signature. I can't remember the specific fraction off hand, but he's sorted a fair amount of cents, and found many more Wheats than he has S mints. |
So long, Realcent 1. Come visit us at Realcent.org! |
|
|
|
socaldsal
New Member
7 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 23:52:27
|
I wouldn't cash anything in until I see the results of the next few years, just like silver in 1965 ending with the price run in 1980. I'm sure after the first couple of years people started going to the refineries when a quarter was now a half in silver value. If they held until 1980 or until today, they would have got a better deal. I know it's hard to predict to the day the exact high or low of a metals price, and I know we've all heard "buy low sell high". I'd modify that to, buy when it's low enough for you, sell it when you're satisfied or disgusted. If copper goes higher, I can triple, if not, then I still have pennies. That's why a lifting of the melt ban wouldn't mean much to me.  |
|
|
|
misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2010 : 08:45:57
|
| sell all then take the money and buy tons of raw and make wifey start sorting lol |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
|
|
|
Red King
Penny Sorter Member
USA
27 Posts |
Posted - 09/08/2010 : 22:26:21
|
Here's the catch to that question: What about nickels?
Theorically, if said ban was lifted, then one could go from bank to bank, draining every 5-cent piece, then submitting them for meltage (is that a word?), creating a marginal profit in the process.
Individuals could simply cycle between banks and smelters, making literally infinite moolah in the process.
No sorting necessary. |
|
|
|
BamaJoe
Penny Sorter Member
86 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2010 : 16:06:03
|
I'm in for the long haul. I'm within a couple months of stopping my sorting - my goal was to hit $1000 not counting the wheats. At that point I go to only sorting silver. Just wanted the copper pennies before they got to hard to get so I can pass them on to the kids or grandkids. I'm going to leave instructions not to sell unless they bring at least 25x face. |
Edited by - BamaJoe on 09/09/2010 16:06:38 |
|
|
|
rosco
Penny Collector Member
USA
254 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2010 : 13:51:28
|
quote:
Originally posted by BamaJoe
I'm in for the long haul. I'm within a couple months of stopping my sorting - my goal was to hit $1000 not counting the wheats. At that point I go to only sorting silver. Just wanted the copper pennies before they got to hard to get so I can pass them on to the kids or grandkids. I'm going to leave instructions not to sell unless they bring at least 25x face.
I think that's the answer maybe at 20 times |
Old Geezer a HAND Sorter |
|
|
|
rosco
Penny Collector Member
USA
254 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2010 : 13:54:57
|
just broke my left wrist
its pinned
BOO HOO NO SORTING |
Old Geezer a HAND Sorter |
|
|
|
Red King
Penny Sorter Member
USA
27 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2010 : 15:51:01
|
quote:
Originally posted by rosco
just broke my left wrist
its pinned
BOO HOO NO SORTING
Oh, man- how did u do that?
Also, you could still use your right hand in the mean time- just half the pace. |
|
|
|
PointOmega
Penny Sorter Member
50 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2010 : 17:43:30
|
| I agree with Hawkeye. It would be quite fulfilling to see at least part of my hoard turned into clean, gleaning reddish copper bars that I could store, like a Poor Man's Fort Knox. Yeah, I like the sound of that.... A Poor Man's Fort Knox. |
|
|
|
misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2010 : 23:21:34
|
| If they did do a nickel ban the banks would instantly be told not to release any to the public |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
How much would you cash in if...
Forum Locked
