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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
 Posted - 05/14/2010 : 21:06:41
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While the historical record will show weakness in PM prices during the next couple months, I think it's gonna be different this time around. Investors don't care about PM seasonality right now. The safety trade is looking to buy PMs when other markets are falling. Look at what happened today. When the stock markets were falling again, sellers sold GOLD and SILVER hard - GOLD fell quickly from a nonminal high of $1249 to $1218. Then, other investors seeking safety bought, GOLD bounced and finished strong around $1233. SILVER bounced likewise. Along with US Treasuries, PMs are where the scared money is going. Seasonality doesn't matter right now.
It wouldn't surprise me with the vagaries of the depreciating Euro, that GOLD and SILVER will have spectacular months in June, July, and August. Unlike many Americans, Europeans know that GOLD is a store of value. As the Euro weakens, the demand for GOLD and other PMs will increase appropriately.  |
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 06:19:13
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| i agree with country. there are stronger forces at work in the economy than seaonaility. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 08:03:13
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| Who knows? |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 09:14:47
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There are many forces at work and the outcome of silver over a few months seems irrelevant. There is still a system heavily leveraged on non existing stock piles that need to be dissolved. To do this there will be corrections and those with severe implications will manipulate accordingly.
I expect greater swings to continue until the positions can be brought forward as a past experience corrected by regulators. This will allow a perception of control and then who knows... |
"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 12:35:09
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| I would love to feel comfortable agreeing with the points made by each of you who feel that this year will be different. But that's the same claim made prior to each new bubble top in other asset classes that investors always make "this time it's different. Every year I fill myself with hope that this summer "it's different" so "I'll just ride it out." And then, BOOM... the market sells off by twenty percent or so... and instead of having taken reasonable profits enabling one to buy more shares back at a lower price, I'm stuck waiting it out. The bullion is a core position that is not messed with. I add to the stores on pullbacks... but it sure would be nice to be able to take advantage of the manipulative or seasonal swings once in awhile. Where's Andrew McGuire when I need him? |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 19:07:18
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| If or when we see a dip in PM prices this summer would it be considered a market "correction" off of its highs or a seasonal dip? |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 23:41:38
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
If or when we see a dip in PM prices this summer would it be considered a market "correction" off of its highs or a seasonal dip?
Both. "Corrections" occur on a seasonal basis. This trend is well-documented, demonstrating weakness during the summer, usually September, and December, with rallies occurring during the other periods |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2010 : 23:50:45
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"Silver's best months seasonally are November, January, February, and May. These are similar to gold's of September, November, December, and May. On average in these hot months for silver during its autumn and winter seasonal rallies, 4% to 5% gains can be expected. If you want to trade silver-related positions within calendar months instead of waiting for the seasonally-optimal times within a year, this chart is useful."
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Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2010 : 07:09:56
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| I wish there was a way to track seasonal premiums for silver. Huge corrections seem to bring huge premiums with them. But all things being equal the name of this game is buy low and sell high. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2010 : 14:44:21
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quote:
Originally posted by beauanderos
I would love to feel comfortable agreeing with the points made by each of you who feel that this year will be different. But that's the same claim made prior to each new bubble top in other asset classes that investors always make "this time it's different. Every year I fill myself with hope that this summer "it's different" so "I'll just ride it out." And then, BOOM... the market sells off by twenty percent or so... and instead of having taken reasonable profits enabling one to buy more shares back at a lower price, I'm stuck waiting it out. The bullion is a core position that is not messed with. I add to the stores on pullbacks... but it sure would be nice to be able to take advantage of the manipulative or seasonal swings once in awhile. Where's Andrew McGuire when I need him?
last year was different.
last year, silver was at 12.31 on may 1 and was at was at 16.15 on Sept. 8.
You must be logged in to see this link. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2010 : 15:26:30
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| Last year was not "different" May was a very strong month, as indicated above, starting at 12.31 and finishing at 15.47, with the exception of June 2, June 4, you could have sat out the whole summer waiting for the price to rise... which it did not until September 3. Access the same link provided by Lemon but look at daily prices, not weekly. The seasonality issue is merely pointing out that you might want to take profits towards end of May and then buy back into the weakness that generally follows in June, July, August. Maybe what I'll do is split half my AGQ and try and time that half, let the other half ride. The core bullion is not being touched. |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/20/2010 : 10:06:56
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Well, looks like I was right... AGAIN    Silver is down from about $19.80 to $17.60... in how many days? And the selloff seems to accelerate at the same time during the time the New York trading desks are open? Gosh, if this isn't shorting piling on top of seasonal weakness, I don't know what is  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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Silver Seasonality? Sell in May and go away?
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