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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2010 : 18:48:25
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| Looks like Euro and Canadian dollars win! |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
 Posted - 02/09/2010 : 20:01:08
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quote:
Originally posted by AGgressive Metal
Looks like Euro and Canadian dollars win!
you're reading that wrong. they lost to gold.
you are correct that looking backwards they were the least bad of the major fiat currencies. going forward, the euro is going to fall apart and CDN is tied to the U.S. Norway and Australia are good but no one at the grocery store here is going to accept those. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 02/10/2010 : 23:43:06
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
quote:
Originally posted by AGgressive Metal
Looks like Euro and Canadian dollars win!
you're reading that wrong. they lost to gold.
you are correct that looking backwards they were the least bad of the major fiat currencies. going forward, the euro is going to fall apart and CDN is tied to the U.S. Norway and Australia are good but no one at the grocery store here is going to accept those.
Its hard to know how people will react. If the dollar collapses in short order and becomes worthless it will create a kind of currency void that will have to be filled. In the short-term there will not be nearly enough gold and silver to fill this void. Therefore during the initial weeks after the collapse, the currencies of resource-rich countries like Canada and Australia might benefit from a flight to quality and could still have some buying power.
Afterall, in every hyper-inflationary event I'm aware of, other currencies were rountinely used in place of the destryed currency.
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 02/11/2010 : 06:11:09
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i'll acknowledge that i'm mostly guessing but i'll explain the reasons for my guesses. it really depends on what happens.
in the countries like germany or zimbabwe that had hyperinflations, other currencies were accepted but those other currencies remained strong. those were also countries smaller than the u.s. and more integrated trade wise with other countries. people were familiar with S. African Rand or British sterling. that's not the case in the u.s. unless you live somewhat close to the border.
i guess my main point is there is not a currency i expect to remain strong while the dollar collapses. they are all fiat and all interrelated.
I have about $300 in FX left over from travels (not just me, family members also) which i actually want to get rid of.
in terms of what happens after the SHTF, i think the most reliable thing is barter - ammo, toilet paper, canned food and bottled water, cigaretts and booze, etc. if you buy and store stuff you actually might use, then you hedge against higher prices and a barter economy. but be warned that prepping takes time and a lot of space. of course, anyone who preps will likely accept pm's, and pm's are relatively compact.
p.s. the currencies with the best shot to retain their value are commodity currencies like the norwegian krone and aussie dollar, but those are relatively small countries, illiquid currencies and people in face to face transactions are not going to accept those. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 02/11/2010 : 21:39:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
i'll acknowledge that i'm mostly guessing but i'll explain the reasons for my guesses. it really depends on what happens.
in the countries like germany or zimbabwe that had hyperinflations, other currencies were accepted but those other currencies remained strong. those were also countries smaller than the u.s. and more integrated trade wise with other countries. people were familiar with S. African Rand or British sterling. that's not the case in the u.s. unless you live somewhat close to the border.
i guess my main point is there is not a currency i expect to remain strong while the dollar collapses. they are all fiat and all interrelated.
I have about $300 in FX left over from travels (not just me, family members also) which i actually want to get rid of.
in terms of what happens after the SHTF, i think the most reliable thing is barter - ammo, toilet paper, canned food and bottled water, cigaretts and booze, etc. if you buy and store stuff you actually might use, then you hedge against higher prices and a barter economy. but be warned that prepping takes time and a lot of space. of course, anyone who preps will likely accept pm's, and pm's are relatively compact.
p.s. the currencies with the best shot to retain their value are commodity currencies like the norwegian krone and aussie dollar, but those are relatively small countries, illiquid currencies and people in face to face transactions are not going to accept those.
in the countries like germany or zimbabwe that had hyperinflations, other currencies were accepted but those other currencies remained strong. those were also countries smaller than the u.s. and more integrated trade wise with other countries. people were familiar with S. African Rand or British sterling. that's not the case in the u.s. unless you live somewhat close to the border.
That's certainly possible. However, we may be surprised at how quickly some saavy venders become foriegn currency experts. If the dollar collapses, most money will run to PMs and other hard assets, but some wealth may (perhaps out of habit) initially flee toward the resource currencies. Of course you are right that even these currencies will eventually fail, unless their sponsoring governments can somehow link them to PMs or other hard assets.
I can envision a post-dollar world where, initially, many currencies will be used concurrently. A few will be foriegn while others may be local; all competing with the barter items you mentioned. Different parts of the country may favor different currencies. Of course gold and silver will be the most sought after forms of money, but initially comparatively few people will possess them. My guess is that this would be a transitional phase leading to either a Constitutional government establishing a PM-backed currency or a totalitarian world government imposing a global fiat currency.
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2010 : 12:37:35
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| The problem with barter is the probability of dual wants. You have to find someone that has what you want (say, 9mm pistol ammo) AND needs what you have (say, canned beans). You also have the problem of unit size - what if you have one 20 oz can of beans and the other person has a tractor - you can't subdivide the tractor in order to make the trade fair. This is the reason why people started using money. |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
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Forex as a hedge/failsafe
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