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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
243 Posts |
 Posted - 09/21/2007 : 19:23:41
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I am testing my earlier hypothesis that a significant cause of the drop in nickel recovery (Canadian pre-1982) was due to the issuance of the 2007 nickels. Many observers saw a drop from around 22.3% to less than 20%, but the amount varies with location.
To test my hypothesis, I count pre-1982 nickels and 2007 nickels.
On September 17, I picked up ten rolls of Canadian nickels at my first bank . . .
Pre-1982 2007
2 5
6 4
7 6
7 4
8 10
7 5
8 7
3 3
6 5
8 4
. . . resulting in 15.5% real nickels and 13.3% 2007s (there were steel nickels of other dates as well).
The 15.5% seems to be an unusually low recovery rate, and the > 13% 2007s may be high. If the rate early this year was 22.3%, then the addition of 13.3% steel nickels would reduce the expected rate of recovery to 19.7%. Any additional drop below this would be likely due to hoarding and the ARP. More testing is required to get a better estimate of recovery and of 2007 nickels.
At my second bank (next day), I picked up another ten rolls Canadian nickels. Hold onto your hats!
Pre-1982 2007
4 1
15 1
13 1
9 0
12 0
13 0
5 0
6 1
14 0
10 2
. . . resulting in 25.3% real nickels and only 1.5% 2007s (steel nickels were about 20%). Now that is a different distribution. It seems to really show that ten rolls is a small sample. So, back to bank 2 for 20 more rolls . . .
Pre-1982 2007
8 3
13 0
9 1
10 0
8 0
13 0
17 1
12 0
9 0
9 0
12 0
7 0
11 0
12 0
8 0
11 0
9 0
9 0
12 0
12 0
For all 30 rolls from bank 2, 26% real nickels, and even though there were about 20% steel nickels, < 1% of all nickels were 2007. Bank 2 is the bank that time forgot.
One day, when I have cleaned out all the nickels from bank 2, I will resume testing my hypothesis.
Not all who wander are lost.
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 09/21/2007 : 19:59:17
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Great work mickeyman! Certainly the number of new coins introduced in an area will affect the percentages. I think the same pattern might hold true here south of the border if we were to measure the # of 2007 pennies in our samples versus the yield percentage for copper cents. One of the reasons some of us hypothosized the significant geographical copper yield differences being in a major part due to how healthy the local economy is, hence a need for more new coins to be pumped into that area. Go get all those good nickels, then continue tracking your yields.
If your percentages are low.. just sort more.
"Preserving REAL coinage.. 2 tons at a time... and FAKE coinage.. a quarter ton at a time.. just for speculation"
HoardCode0.1:M49/15USCA:US1Cu706700(125000 Reserved):US1Zi150000:US5Ni9500:CA5Ni1150 |
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deleted
5 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2007 : 05:09:02
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| I was thinking the same thing when I sorted the last box of nickels- lot of 2007. I believe they are flooding the market with new nickels as fast as they can so that they can pull out and melt every old nickel they can get their hands on without risking a shortage in coins. |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2007 : 10:04:13
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Why can't I get rolls of new nickels then? I could see them doing that for pennies, but not for nickels. The composition for the 2007 nickels is the same, so there would be no advantage to melting the old nickels.. they are still perfectly functional. Of course it would make sense for them to do it in Canada for nickels because of the amount of old ones they are recovering the alloys from.
If your percentages are low.. just sort more.
"Preserving REAL coinage.. 2 tons at a time... and FAKE coinage.. a quarter ton at a time.. just for speculation"
HoardCode0.1:M49/15USCA:US1Cu693150(105000 Reserved):US1Zi150000:US5Ni9500:CA5Ni1150 |
Edited by - HoardCopperByTheTon on 10/02/2007 10:05:59 |
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deleted
5 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2007 : 07:36:13
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Sorry-
I am in Canada, so we have the old actual nickels and they are pulling them out of circulation. If you want 2007's I have 7 boxes of them sitting in the basement you are welcome to... |
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Nickel hypothesis - the bank that time forgot
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