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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:21:55
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We are starting the month of September with a sell-off. Currently the DOW is down 1.6% or 159 points. Gold down $2.40. Oil down $1.05 Silver down 16 cents.
I hope I'm wrong, but even though we haven't made a complete recovery thus far, I'm fearing the second dip of this 'recession' is about to kick in. 
I woundn't be surprised to see PMs take a dip for a while too.
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Think positive. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:23:41
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| Make that down 180 points now. |
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Think positive. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:43:39
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A correction in the stock market was inevitable; nothing goes straight up. Maybe this will turn out to be a good buying opportunity.
Gold is up today and silver is only down 11c. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 09/01/2009 11:44:30 |
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jtm3
Penny Pincher Member
USA
187 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:45:19
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| On the bright side it would cause PM's investor opportunities to last longer. |
Copper Cent Hoarding Wiki
coppercenthoarding.wikia.com
+637 posts |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:46:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
A correction in the stock market was inevitable; nothing goes straight up. Maybe this will turn out to be a good buying opportunity.
Gold is up today and silver is only down 11c.
CNBC has gold down a penny last I looked. Things change. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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jtm3
Penny Pincher Member
USA
187 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:49:10
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Apmex.com
Gold $952.00 $953.00 -0.50
Silver $14.80 $14.85 -0.10
Platinum $1,219.00 $1,229.00 -16.00
Palladium $288.10 $293.10 -2.70
Updated:9/1/2009 11:44:44 AM CST
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Copper Cent Hoarding Wiki
coppercenthoarding.wikia.com
+637 posts |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:49:19
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quote:
Originally posted by jtm3
On the bright side it would cause PM's investor opportunities to last longer.
Yes, if we go deeper into the recession there may well be lots of buying opportunities for both precious metals and stocks too. If one is able to afford them that is. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:50:42
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| If a good stock market correction ensues, I wouldn't be surprised if GOLD, instead of US treasuries, would be the safe haven this time around. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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jtm3
Penny Pincher Member
USA
187 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 11:51:47
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Rice and beans my friend, rice and beans. |
Copper Cent Hoarding Wiki
coppercenthoarding.wikia.com
+637 posts |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 12:09:30
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Don't fall for the trap. The banking holiday scenario is increasing as the markets call out the weakest link and tell USD "you are the weakest link, goodbye".
Save yourselves |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 12:59:27
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PMs now up nicely! 
The US stock market is still a confirmed BULL market until the long term trend changes. BULL market rules apply. In a BULL market you get the sharp corrections, but you buy the dip. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 09/01/2009 13:04:16 |
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country_bumpkin
Penny Sorter Member
USA
86 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:02:04
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hahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahaha
BULL S***. Anything you say, Mr. Madoff. |
He who goes a-borrowing, goes a-sorrowing.
- Benjamin Franklin |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:08:08
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Don't know how the US stock market is in a confirmed bull market in the long term when adjusted for inflation.
DJIA is still BELOW levels of 10 yrs ago. That IS confirmed. I remember when I took the series 7 test in 1997 and people still thought Harry Dent was crazy with his prediction of Dow 10,000 by the year 2,000. Then I was on Tuesday March 16 1999 I was at a prominent institutional money managers office for a due diligence trip when the office roared and cheered as the Dow briefly tapped 10,000 for the first time. That was more than 10 years ago. Long term trend tells me that anything since then (and then some)has been wiped out.
Good news about inflation is that companies will be earning more than ever but the purchasing power parity will dwindle as the stock market shoots toward the moon at a slower pace than inflation. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:12:17
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quote:
Originally posted by country_bumpkin
hahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahaha
BULL S***. Anything you say, Mr. Madoff.
Would you care to explain your point of view with some data Mr. Bumpkin? Do you know anything about stock markets? |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:19:34
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Don't know how the US stock market is in a confirmed bull market in the long term when adjusted for inflation.
DJIA is still BELOW levels of 10 yrs ago. That IS confirmed. I remember when I took the series 7 test in 1997 and people still thought Harry Dent was crazy with his prediction of Dow 10,000 by the year 2,000. Then I was on Tuesday March 16 1999 I was at a prominent institutional money managers office for a due diligence trip when the office roared and cheered as the Dow briefly tapped 10,000 for the first time. That was more than 10 years ago. Long term trend tells me that anything since then (and then some)has been wiped out.
Good news about inflation is that companies will be earning more than ever but the purchasing power parity will dwindle as the stock market shoots toward the moon at a slower pace than inflation.
Here's the deal as I see it. The 13-week exponential moving average positively crossed over the 34-week exponential moving average on August 3. These events are rare. Negative crossovers occurred in late 2000 and January 2008. Positive crossovers occurred August 2009 and June 2003 and the fall of 1994. That's the confirmation criteria. Now, this market run could be a bull in a secular bear market, but it really does not matter if you follow the trends and get out when the trend is over. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:48:27
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| The Dow closed at 9286.56 on August 3. The market is now at 9298. I don't know how 11.5 points is confirming anything about a long term trend. Exponential crossovers that happen to match with favorable outcomes for a handful of samples does not make it statistically significant. Curve fitting is the most destructive use of technical analysis. Moving average crossovers are lagging indicators. There is nothing about reflective analysis that causes or determines the market's future. Moving averages simply report what has already happened in a smoothed visually rhetorical sense. Markets will do what markets will do. Don't be fooled by randomness. |
Edited by - jonflyfish on 09/01/2009 14:51:31 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:53:49
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Don't know how the US stock market is in a confirmed bull market in the long term when adjusted for inflation.
DJIA is still BELOW levels of 10 yrs ago. That IS confirmed. I remember when I took the series 7 test in 1997 and people still thought Harry Dent was crazy with his prediction of Dow 10,000 by the year 2,000. Then I was on Tuesday March 16 1999 I was at a prominent institutional money managers office for a due diligence trip when the office roared and cheered as the Dow briefly tapped 10,000 for the first time. That was more than 10 years ago. Long term trend tells me that anything since then (and then some)has been wiped out.
Good news about inflation is that companies will be earning more than ever but the purchasing power parity will dwindle as the stock market shoots toward the moon at a slower pace than inflation.
Speaking of adjusted for inflation, someone go to the inflation calculator and see how high gold would have to be today to even equal what it was at its peak in 1980. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 14:59:31
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| Well said. However, multi-month moving averages (I look at the $SPX), while a lagging indicator, "confirm" a longer term trend is in place. Shorter term moving averages are far less reliable. The longer term crossovers, both positive and negative, have proved reliable for the past two decades. This current market could be the instance that doesn't work. We shall see. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 15:07:21
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
[quote]
Speaking of adjusted for inflation, someone go to the inflation calculator and see how high gold would have to be today to even equal what it was at its peak in 1980.
$2250
You must be logged in to see this link. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 09/01/2009 15:13:34 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 15:09:32
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| For the record, the DOW closed down 185.68 points today. Gold ($958) and silver ($15.025) closed higher, but so did the U.S. dollar. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 15:17:28
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Curve fitting, over optimizing, and back adjusting what would have been for a sample set of five signals is NOT a pass to using the same parameters in the future and expecting the same consequence. Will the first signal out of the sample set prove successful? Flip a coin. Will the next 30? I have been around that world for a very long time at very deep levels and can only offer words of caution.
Just food for thought- What about money management and position size? If you believe in such a system after only 5 signals and you take the first out of sample trade and it has a 70% draw down (did this happen in the small samples observed?) will you stay in and "ride it out" to see if it works, and what portion of your overall portfolio is in that trade?
I remember the heralded fed stock model that was on display with the "irrational exuberance" Greenspanspin. After only a few nice signals looking back overthe last few decades, it would have put you 100% in equities just in time to ride the stock slide as it accelerated early last October. |
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myfundsarelow
Penny Collector Member
USA
388 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 16:00:51
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| Hi all, only way to make money in the stock market. buy low sell high, its a great life if you don't weakin PEACE !! |
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myfundsarelow
Penny Collector Member
USA
388 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2009 : 16:14:18
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| Hi all, only way to make money in the stock market. buy low sell high, its a great life if you don't weakin PEACE !! |
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Cody8404
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
602 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 16:58:07
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Boy, what a difference a few days makes.
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Awake, O kings of the earth! Come ye, O, come ye, with your gold and your silver, to the help of my people, to the house of the daughters of Zion, to the help of the people of the God of this Land even Jesus Christ. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 17:13:52
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
Speaking of adjusted for inflation, someone go to the inflation calculator and see how high gold would have to be today to even equal what it was at its peak in 1980.
When you consider the average monthly price of gold vs the daily spike, gold, before inflation adjustments, is already at new highs- 681.50 in 1980 peak vs 979.30 today-
You must be logged in to see this link.
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The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 18:13:04
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The "Market" is only headed one way...UP-UP-UP!!!!
Yeah...and I'm 6'4" and movie star handsome... (well..I'm not 6'4" )
From many sources I've been reading, the market is only up since March due to gubbernment money (our future income) being poured into it via the banksters. They, the bankster PTB's are desperately trying to restore confidence......
Con-game......conmen......congress......convict.....
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Sept. Sell-off
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