| Author |
 Topic  |
|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 09/02/2009 : 19:19:23
|
Today's quotes.
GOLD 975.50 $ -2.80 -0.29%
SILVER 15.34 $ -0.03 -0.20%
WTI CRUDE 68.33 $ +0.28 +0.41%
US $ EUR € CAN $ AUS $
US $ - 0.7008 1.1037 1.1980
EUR € 1.4270 - 1.5753 1.7093
CAN $ 0.9060 0.6348 - -
AUS $ 0.8347 0.5850 - -
DOWJONES 9,280.67 -29.93 -0.32%
NASDAQ 1,967.07 -1.82 -0.09%
TSX 1,184.89 +21.65 +1.86%
I would like to see this thread last until the end of the month and see how it all plays out. Any predictions?
|
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
 |
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 20:22:03
|
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950 |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 20:59:32
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950
If you believe that the stock market is in a "confirmed" BULL move, why would you predict the market lower from the value on the day your system screamed "up up up"? |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
Gr33nday43
New Member
Uzbekistan
10 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 21:29:37
|
Since we are making predictions,
DJIA-7750
S&P-890
Gold-940
Silver-14
G/S ratio-67 |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 22:40:27
|
The prior session highs will be taken for silver and gold before the week ends.
Cheers! |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 23:44:18
|
| Most likely for silver on Thursday. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 00:43:41
|
| Done. That was too easy. Looking for silver to push toward 18. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 05:43:50
|
quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
quote:
Originally posted by Country
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950
If you believe that the stock market is in a "confirmed" BULL move, why would you predict the market lower from the value on the day your system screamed "up up up"?
The "confirmation" event occurred on August 3. The BULL move began many weeks before, starting in March.
A confirmed BULL market does not mean that market will go up every month or every week.  I still adhere to watching the 13-week exponential moving average and how it compares to the 34-week exponential moving average. A 5% decline over 4 weeks will not change the relationship between them. The 13-week exponential moving average will still be above the 34-week moving average. In fact, the earlier weeks of the closing $SPX were far lower than they are currently.
Since September is usually the worst month for the $SPX because the institutions settle up their books by the end of the month, a small correction is in order. I think the last quarter of 2009 will see impressive further gains ($SPX reaches 1150 by years end).
What are your fearless predictions jonflyfish? Stick your neck out a little bit.  |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
Edited by - Country on 09/03/2009 07:40:15 |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 13:39:58
|
Because there is no financial consequence, guessing market levels and timing is fun- a lot like playing pin the tail on the donkey while blindfolded.
Trading and guessing are two different activities. I do not trade based on guessing. Trading for me is serious business. I trade for a living in order to provide for my family and others. Hence, the market tells me what to do, not the other way around.
Peace |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2009 : 19:05:23
|
quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Because there is no financial consequence, guessing market levels and timing is fun- a lot like playing pin the tail on the donkey while blindfolded.
Trading and guessing are two different activities. I do not trade based on guessing. Trading for me is serious business. I trade for a living in order to provide for my family and others. Hence, the market tells me what to do, not the other way around.
Peace
Well then, feel free to give us your insights any time and feel free to start a trading tread. I for one am always willing to learn from someone out in the trenches.  |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2009 : 15:15:32
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950
I think I was too pessimistic. All markets are moving higher now on the flood of liquidity worldwide. GO SILVER !!  |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2009 : 10:33:29
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
quote:
Originally posted by Country
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950
I think I was too pessimistic. All markets are moving higher now on the flood of liquidity worldwide. GO SILVER !!
September 30, 2009
GOLD $1007.70
SILVER $16.62 (Gold/Silver ratio = 60.6)
$WTI CRUDE $70.61
$DJIA 9712.28
$SPX 1057.08
|
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2009 : 10:58:38
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
quote:
Originally posted by Country
quote:
Originally posted by Country
BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER MY FEARLESS FORCAST IS:
GOLD $1080
SILVER $19.63 (GOLD/SILVER RATIO AT 55)
$WTI CRUDE $72
$DJIA 8816
$SPX 950
I think I was too pessimistic. All markets are moving higher now on the flood of liquidity worldwide. GO SILVER !!
September 30, 2009
GOLD $1007.70
SILVER $16.62 (Gold/Silver ratio = 60.6)
$WTI CRUDE $70.61
$DJIA 9712.28
$SPX 1057.08
Well so much for the idea of a September sell-off on any market. I was thinking that we would see signs (reflected in the markets) of u.s. slipping deeper into the recession. The unemployment numbers were not so encouraging, but it appears to me inflation is the key factor to look out for in this economy. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2009 : 17:34:03
|
| Sell-off started in Sept. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 16:07:43
|
quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
The "Market" is only headed one way...UP-UP-UP!!!!
Yeah...and I'm 6'4" and movie star handsome... (well..I'm not 6'4" )
From many sources I've been reading, the market is only up since March due to gubbernment money (our future income) being poured into it via the banksters. They, the bankster PTB's are desperately trying to restore confidence......
Con-game......conmen......congress......convict.....
DH,
You made the call! The stock market is headed way up! Maybe you are 6'4" and movie star handsome.  |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
El Dee
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
547 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 16:55:22
|
Mr. Nostradamus,
What will the Dow be at year end?
Should I sell all my silver and buy into the stock market?
Signed,
Confused
|
Trust the government? Ask an Indian. |
Edited by - El Dee on 10/19/2009 16:55:43 |
|
|
|
Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 19:14:09
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
The "Market" is only headed one way...UP-UP-UP!!!!
Yeah...and I'm 6'4" and movie star handsome... (well..I'm not 6'4")
From many sources I've been reading, the market is only up since March due to gubbernment money (our future income) being poured into it via the banksters. They, the bankster PTB's are desperately trying to restore confidence......
Con-game......conmen......congress......convict.....
DH,
You made the call! The stock market is headed way up! Maybe you are 6'4" and movie star handsome.
Well, I'm not 6'4"...
Ok, the market is still climbing...can't imagine why, but it is...for now. OTOH, the dollar has roughly as much value -- respectively -- as the market has gained. So I guess it's a wash...
|
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
|
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 20:21:46
|
Well, not exactly. Here are some statistics that don't lie:
In March 2009, the $USD dollar index was 90, now 75, a -17% fall.
In March 2009, the $SPX S&P 500 was 666, now 1097, a +65% rise. With
a 17% depreciation in the dollar, a stock investor has netted over +40% or so appreciation in the value of his paper equities.
Also note the following:
In March 2009, the $CRB commodity index was around 200, now 280, a +40% rise. An appreciation much more than the depreciation of the $USD.
In March 2009, GOLD spot was $900, now $1063, an +18% rise. The rise in GOLD is about equal to the depreciation of the $USD.
In March 2009, SILVER spot was $12.75, now $17.85, a +40% rise. An appreciation much more than the depreciation of the $USD.
|
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
El Dee
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
547 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 23:09:17
|
Excellent! Why didn't I think of that...
I should have, along with every other US investor, sold all of my holdings on Oct 1st 2008, then poured every single dollar back into equities on March 15 when all the other freaked-out investors except for Mr. Nostradamus thought that the Dow was headed to 500. Most people I know had no free cash after the market crash, or had huge loss positions that they could only churn.
Does your Ouija board indicate a top to this bear bounce, or when investors will finally recover to Oct 2007 levels?
|
Trust the government? Ask an Indian. |
|
|
|
jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2009 : 23:40:33
|
| Market is fully on life support from the printing press. The printing press stopped the decline and he printing press has pumped it up. There is a nominal increase and a real decrease. Commodity and foreign exchange markets seem to reflect this nicely. ;-) |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
|
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 10/20/2009 : 10:40:50
|
quote:
Originally posted by El Dee
Excellent! Why didn't I think of that...
I should have, along with every other US investor, sold all of my holdings on Oct 1st 2008, then poured every single dollar back into equities on March 15 when all the other freaked-out investors except for Mr. Nostradamus thought that the Dow was headed to 500. Most people I know had no free cash after the market crash, or had huge loss positions that they could only churn.
Does your Ouija board indicate a top to this bear bounce, or when investors will finally recover to Oct 2007 levels?
Based on TA analysis, you should have sold all your equities the first week of January 2008. If you had guts, you could have jumped backed in when the DOW neared 7100 (low of 2002); however, the confirmation to get back in really didn't occur until 8/3/09.
There is NO Ouija board for the stock market. Stock markets will tell us all when to get out when their upward trend changes. Watch for the multi-week negative crossover or some other gauge that you may use to determine trend change.
As far as churning at a low level, there is nothing wrong with taking paper tax swap loses. I did some nice tax loss swaps on March 2, 2009 (dow 6550) - selling one equity for a tax loss and buying another similar one the same day. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
|
|
|
Topic |
|
Sept. Sell-off
Forum Locked
