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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
 Posted - 04/09/2007 : 10:12:40
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Here is a contest of sorts. Everyone enter your best guess for the future of the U.S. nickel. It is apparent that the US Mint cannot keep making cupronickel 5-cent pieces forever at a raw material cost of almost 9 cents apiece! How do you think this situation will be resolved? If the Mint debases nickels, what material will take its place and why?
Winner will not be known until the Mint makes a change or Congress passes a law specifying the change. What does the winner get? . . . bragging rights on this board!
I'll start by listing some of the Mint's options as I see them:
1. Debase to Aluminum
2. Debase to Steel
3. Debase to mostly pure Copper coated with a white metal
4. Stop production of Nickel 5-cent pieces, resume production of half dimes in cupronickel.
5. End production of 5-cent pieces altogether, along with pennies. All we really need are dimes and quarters, anyway!
6. End production of dollars, halfes, quarters, dimes, nickels, and pennies. Introduce the Amero.
7. Debase temporarily to #3 above and hope that new nickel mines opening within a few years will lower prices enough to return to cupronickel.
8. Any other option you can think of. Give its relative merits and weaknesses.
I'm not announcing my prediction yet. It might be one of the above or it might be something else.
Metalophile
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n/a
deleted
37 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 10:15:09
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| 94.5% steel, 3.5% copper, 2% nickel plating |
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n/a
deleted
17 Posts |
 Posted - 04/09/2007 : 10:27:52
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95% Steel
3% Copper
2% Nickel
And for additional fun:
Introduction Date: January 1, 2008 |
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n/a
deleted
17 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 10:30:18
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| That was my original guess BonPecheur, but needed to be at least a little original...can't copy our northern neighbors exactly ;) |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 12:17:08
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My official prediction is #7 above: They will switch to nickel plating over pure copper (or nearly pure). Then they'll wait and hope that nickel prices will come down after new nickel mines come online. Raw material cost (not including plating costs) would be ~ 3.6 cents apiece at the current price of copper, a savings of more than half, although still dangerously close to melt value, but it would look and feel like the old nickels.
I don't think they'll go to steel or plated steel nickels because historically the U.S. Mint has kowtowed to the vending machine industry. I think the vending machine industry probably already has lobbyists or representatives against steel nickels because of their electromagnetic properties. The vending machines would have to be revamped to take steel nickels, but then they wouldn't accept cupronickel nickels. Also, people would be tempted to invent magnetic gizmos to retrieve magnetic nickels or otherwise tamper with vending machines. So I think part of the reason it has taken the Mint so long to come up with an alternative is that they're experimenting with different alloys. Aluminum won't work - too light. Most other alloys that would be cheaper would be either magnetic or significantly lighter than cupronickel. . . all except pure copper.
In 1982 when they switched pennies over, they were careful to get something that looked and felt the same as the old pennies, and they switched in mid-year and ramped up production in order to discourage hoarding. They'll try to do the same with nickels if they can.
I don't have any insider information at the Mint, even though there are some Moys somewhere on my family tree I don't know Edmund Moy.
Metalophile |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 13:46:03
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Other options:
Lead
Plastic
Ceramics
Carbon polymers
wood
paper - 5ct bills
Misc random scrap metal potpouri
________________________
"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
How to read a HoardCode:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 13:58:14
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I'm hoping for aluminum to replace the 75 / 25 cupronickel.
I'm fairly sure that I'm wrong about this, but it is what I would LIKE to see.
As to what is most likely,
The members of this board who guessed above are my best resource for learning about these things.
So I too think that 95+% copper with a small nickel clad on both sides (and the edge?) is most likely, IF they do anything noticable.
One thing that the Fed might do, is simply decrease production of nickels without making any announcements of any kind.
They could just qwietly reduce the number that they produce and increase the numbers of dimes qwarters and dollar coins.
My prediction then is this:
More dimes, qwarters, and Presidential / Sacageweas while simultaneously decreasing the numbers of pennies and nickels.
I predict that this will happen without any fanfare, announcements or even any admission that it is happening.
I also expect more of a push towards debit and credit cards and away from tangible currencies of all kinds.
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28 times 13 = 364
We cannot divide the 365.25 days of a year into eqwal parts.
We never have and never will.
We cannot even divide the 365 whole days or integer days into eqwal parts.
But we could have a year that is 364 days long.
I propose that we use a calendar made up of 13 months of 28 days each.
Then every five years we have a five day long party or holiday
that would serve the function that leap days now serve every four years. |
Edited by - n/a on 04/09/2007 14:01:01 |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 14:11:41
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quote:
Originally posted by Atheist
I'm hoping for aluminum to replace the 75 / 25 cupronickel.
I'm fairly sure that I'm wrong about this, but it is what I would LIKE to see.
As to what is most likely,
The members of this board who guessed above are my best resource for learning about these things.
So I too think that 95+% copper with a small nickel clad on both sides (and the edge?) is most likely, IF they do anything noticable.
One thing that the Fed might do, is simply decrease production of nickels without making any announcements of any kind.
They could just qwietly reduce the number that they produce and increase the numbers of dimes qwarters and dollar coins.
My prediction then is this:
More dimes, qwarters, and Presidential / Sacageweas while simultaneously decreasing the numbers of pennies and nickels.
I predict that this will happen without any fanfare, announcements or even any admission that it is happening.
I also expect more of a push towards debit and credit cards and away from tangible currencies of all kinds.
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Actually it would be difficult for the Mint to reduce production without anyone noticing. They post new coin production figures each month on their website, You must be logged in to see this link. . Also, supposedly the way it works, they produce coin depending on demand from the Federal Reserve Branche Banks. Local banks order coin from the FRB's, FRB's order coin from the Mint. Mint produces enough new coin to satisfy demand. Now, if they mysteriously quit publishing their production figures . . .
Metalophile
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Edited by - Metalophile on 04/09/2007 14:21:44 |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 15:02:35
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My vote is for solid 18/10 stainless steel.
What might the Mint do in the meantime? They could just slow the presses and create a deliberate nickel shortage to coax people into cashing in their small change jars, thus driving existing nickels back into circulation. This could happen for a few years. That'll hold the nickel supply for a few years until the debased nickels get enough coverage, then Gresham's Law does the rest.
Anybody else thinking of a deliberate Mint shortage of pennies/nickels?
RUNNING TOTAL
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987 zincs (1982-2006) 77.7%
283 coppers (1959-1982) 22.3%
7 wheats (1935-1952)
1 Canadian (1977)
1 dime (2004) |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 15:03:43
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There are so many possibilities, but if I had to guess I would say penny transactions would get eliminated and pennies become the new nickel like that Fed guy suggested. After that new "nickels" would be made that had the same size and wieght of old zinc pennies, but with ,of course, a different design.
At some point, as the dollar devalues, making, shipping, counting, etc. pennies of any kind is going to become impractical. So either penny transactions will get eliminated or they will have to introduce a "new" dollar. And since introducing new paper money (ex: turning in old dollars for new 10 to 1) is a last resort, desperation, bananna republic move, I don't see that happening yet.
Turning pennies into nickels seems like the perfect short turn move. It effectively kills two birds with one stone and is way more efficient than reissuing pennies and nickels in new compositions. Of course, the fact that it is efficient probably guarentees that it will never happen since Uncle Sam is in charge...
OK so its a long shot, but what the heck that is my guess:) |
Edited by - horgad on 04/09/2007 15:05:42 |
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davycoppit
Penny Pincher Member
USA
126 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 15:32:45
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Would zinc with small nickel-clad on both sides work?
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 16:09:15
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I think if the Mint does slow down nickel production and spot shortages develop, a feeding frenzy will ensue, and nickels will be snapped up by more and more collectors and hoarders, exacerbating the shortage even more.
Metalophile |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 16:36:59
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I agree with the logic that minor shortages can cause major shortages via hoarding.
Would the general public notice?
Maybe.
Would the Main Stream Media notice?
Maybe.
Would the people doing the hoarding notice?
Absolutely!
We are admittedly a tiny minority though.
I wonder what effect we have on the volumes that are out there in the main stream?
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28 times 13 = 364
We cannot divide the 365.25 days of a year into eqwal parts.
We never have and never will.
We cannot even divide the 365 whole days or integer days into eqwal parts.
But we could have a year that is 364 days long.
I propose that we use a calendar made up of 13 months of 28 days each.
Then every five years we have a five day long party or holiday
that would serve the function that leap days now serve every four years. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 04/09/2007 : 19:44:17
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I understand that quality stainless steel is about 8% nickel to 92% steel. Rather than a new nickel that is plated, it would make more sense to go to quality stainless IMO. 8% is much better (or worse depending on how you look at it) than 25% nickel and no copper would be needed. I feel a solid stainless steel nickel would hold up much better than a plated one.
BTW, coinflation reported today that a nickel's melt value is now at 180.38%!
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For good times to come or bad times to come, now is the time to save your copper or nickel coins. |
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psi
Penny Collector Member
Canada
399 Posts |
Posted - 04/10/2007 : 03:40:15
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| I think that aluminum coins would be widely rejected in the US, given the strong resistance to change(heh) especially where money is concerned. I have a couple aluminum coins from austria and they are so light they feel 'fake'. Replacing pennies and nickels with plated aluminum might be a good strategy to force them out of circulation without the fuss that just pulling them would cause. If vending machines didn't accept the new ones either, the nickel would be dead in the water. My guess is that the new nickels will be plated zinc or steel. |
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Gresham
Penny Pincher Member
184 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2007 : 21:01:59
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how about
Tin 10%
Zn 9%
Copper 60%
Manganese 20.7%
Nickel: 0.15% , this way they are still nickels
total mass: 4.99 g
price:
3.52 cents
Density 8.26 g/ml
compared to 8.93 g/ml
so about the same density or heft as well.
The mint seems to like metal roostertails
The biggest advantage is that the magnetic properties may be close to that of the old nickel or at least adding manganese worked with the old silver war nickels and the golden dollar. If this is the case they should still work in vending machines without anything changing.
Disadvantage: 3.52 cents doesn't give the mint much breathing room since the government's inflation is catching up with them. |
Edited by - Gresham on 04/11/2007 23:55:10 |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2007 : 22:58:39
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Stainless generally has more Chromium than Nickel in it.
70% or so of Stainless Steel in production has roughly:
18% Chromium
10% Nickel
71+% Iron
You must be logged in to see this link.
qwote from wiki page above:
"A typical composition of 18% chromium and 10% nickel, commonly known as 18/10 stainless is often used in flatware. Similarly 18/0 and 18/8 is also available."
Some Stainless has no nickel at all in it, but as far as I can tell from what I've read, All Stainless has Chromium in it.
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28 times 13 = 364
We cannot divide the 365.25 days of a year into eqwal parts.
We never have and never will.
We cannot even divide the 365 whole days or integer days into eqwal parts.
But we could have a year that is 364 days long.
I propose that we use a calendar made up of 13 months of 28 days each.
Then every five years we have a five day long party or holiday
that would serve the function that leap days now serve every four years. |
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Gresham
Penny Pincher Member
184 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2007 : 23:17:20
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I wonder if people would even notice if the nickel disappeared. In a typical transaction where the store gives back money in change, there are always pennies and quarters, sometimes dimes, and maybe one nickel. Further supose that the 5 cent pieces disappear when they become aluminum and no one wants them.
Having given the new nickels 20.7% Mn, I discovered that the old "silver war" was 9%. So the magnetic properties wouldn't be right.
So something more like
Tin 10%
Zn 20.7%
Copper 60%
Manganese 9%
Nickel 0.15-0.3%
new price 4.75 cents, the mint is really cutting it close now
Tin 10%
Zn 24.7%
Copper 56%
Manganese 9%
Nickel 0.15-0.3%
New price: 3.47 cents
Density: 8.16
mass: 4.99g |
Edited by - Gresham on 04/12/2007 00:52:41 |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 03:00:31
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Bring back the Half Dime!!! That is my vote.. but it will never happen.. because it makes too much sense. The nickel was created as a government subsidy and needs to be abolished. The 5 cent nickel was introduced in 1866 after lobbyists for the nickel mining states convinced government officials that they should use it in coinage in order to promote mining interests in those states that produced nickel. The half dime had served fine since 1792 and did not need to be replaced by a new coin of the same denomination. If we bring back the half dime at the same size as the original and make it out of the same material as the other clad coinage it will cost about 1.3 cents in material each. Because of its small size as compared to the current nickel it would circulate better because a few of them would not weight down someone's pocket.
Of course if they just want to do that revaluation of the penny to 5 cents thing, I guess that would be OK with me too.. I have a few pennies lying around.
"Preserving coinage.. 2 tons at a time"
HoardCode0.1:M48/14USCA:US1Cu639700:US5Ni2400:CA5Ni46 |
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n/a
deleted
59 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 08:04:50
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Here's my new crazy idea.
Eliminate the penny, AND the nickel. And the paper dollar. And the quarter!
Add a 20 cent coin and start using the half dollar again. Throw in a two dollar coin for good measure. Round all purchases to the nearest dime. So the new coin denominations are:
$0.10
$0.20
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
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One of the chief attractions of the life of the wilderness is its rugged and stalwart democracy;
there every man stands for what he actually is, and can show himself to be.
-- Theodore Roosevelt |
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psi
Penny Collector Member
Canada
399 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 09:10:45
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| That would be cool but I don't know if it will ever happen. Most amounts under a dollar could be made with 2 coins or less, makes a lot of sense. I wonder why 50 cent coins never really caught on in the US or Canada? They seem useful. The Canadian ones don't look anything like our other coins so I think that's part of it. |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 12:12:09
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quote:
Originally posted by Wes
Here's my new crazy idea.
Eliminate the penny, AND the nickel. And the paper dollar. And the quarter!
Add a 20 cent coin and start using the half dollar again. Throw in a two dollar coin for good measure. Round all purchases to the nearest dime. So the new coin denominations are:
$0.10
$0.20
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
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One of the chief attractions of the life of the wilderness is its rugged and stalwart democracy;
there every man stands for what he actually is, and can show himself to be.
-- Theodore Roosevelt
Wes, your idea makes the most sense. However, we in the U.S. don't seem to like rapid change in our coinage and paper money, although the Mint and the BEP have put us through a lot of incremental changes over the past few years.
Actually, if transactions were rounded to the nearest dime, we wouldn't have to change the quarter. Quarters could still be used in pairs. Quarters are probably the most popular denomination. It would be hard to eliminate from production. A 20c piece would probably be slightly smaller than the quarter, and people would complain bitterly about getting the two mixed up.
Half dollars aren't popular probably because of the large size. OTOH, the tiny size of the half dsimes probably hurts that option as well.
Metalophile |
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n/a
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59 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 13:11:02
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Regarding half dollars, I read recently that this coin circulated widely until 1964, at which point the popularity of the recently deceased JFK coinciding with the end of silver coinage resulted in hoarding and effectively killed it as a circulating denomination. I'm to young to know if any of that is actually true.
I threw that system up there without thinking, but now that I have, I think it makes a LOT of sense. Consider:
1) cents and nickels are no longer profitable to make
2) ten cents today is still worth less than a cent (the smallest denomination) historically
3) dollar bills cost way more than dollar coins due to their short (~18 month) lifetime
With ten cents as the smallest denomination, you have two options when holding a single quarter:
1) spend it as 20 cents and take the hit
2) find another one so you have fifty
Both are obviously better served by 20 and 50 cent coins. You are absolutely right though Metalophile- nobody will willingly give up their precious quarters, and you couldn't circulate 20 and 25 cent coins together. As the miserable failure of every dollar coin ever has indicated, change must be forced. Here's how it would work:
Stop producing cents, nickels, quarters, and dollar bills. When business X makes their change order with the bank and finds all they can get are dimes, they can only do one thing: order them, along with halves, dollar coins, and two dollar bills, and round all transactions to the nearest dime. All these other denominations are currently available, and can easily be made in larger quantities if necessary. We get by on those coins alone while design of the new 20 cent occurs and existing machines are programmed to accept it. Assume we stick with $2 bills for now, and we have exactly the same number of circulating coins and bills as we do now- it will all fit nicely in the cash drawer.
Of course, I don't think any of this would ever happen, but I've convinced myself it should. Maybe it's time for a website and a petition 
The only remaining question- whose likeness shall grace the new 20 cent coin?
Chester A. Arthur and his glorious sideburns, obviously.
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One of the chief attractions of the life of the wilderness is its rugged and stalwart democracy;
there every man stands for what he actually is, and can show himself to be.
-- Theodore Roosevelt |
Edited by - n/a on 04/12/2007 13:14:29 |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 14:29:02
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I agree with your Master Plan, Wes! And so does this article:
You must be logged in to see this link.
It's time for the 1-2-5 system to come to America! We already use it with the $10-$20-$50... why not smaller denoms?
RUNNING TOTAL
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987 zincs (1982-2006) 77.7%
283 coppers (1959-1982) 22.3%
7 wheats (1935-1952)
1 Canadian (1977)
1 dime (2004) |
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Ridewithme38
Penny Sorter Member
USA
79 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 14:56:59
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I think they should make the new nickels and Pennys out of gold and silver!
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RUNNING TOTAL: APROXIMATELY..
6000 Copper
158 wheat
63 canadian
1 Guatemala coin?(1979)and a 250gram .999 pure copper bar(Jetco USA) |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 15:44:05
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Let's see, make pennies out of gold, then they'll weigh about 4 grams apiece with a melt value of ~$90. Make nickels out of silver, melt value ~$2.5. Sounds good to me! Pennies would have a face value of $100, and nickels a face value of $3. Get rid of paper FRNs!
Metalophile |
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What material for debased nickels?
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