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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
 Posted - 01/28/2009 : 09:39:03
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let me start off by saying that I LOVE coin collecting, I've been doing it since I was 9. The more I think it through though I just can't come up with any reasonable scenario where medium or high grade numismatics have any chance to either outpace or in the worst of TSHTF scenarios even retaining any value compared to bullion or 90%
thoughts?
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novillero
Penny Sorter Member
USA
86 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 10:03:27
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I am not much into the SHTF scenarios. If such a thing happens, we are all f*cked and the amount of bullion or 90% that you have will probably not last you the duration. If you really think there is a strong possibility of the SHTF, I would buy one or two guns (you really only need to know how to shoot one - no one shoots two rifles at a time, right?); learn how to handle that one or two guns; buy plenty of ammo; buy some land with a woodlot and water source; learn something about gardening; plant some fruit trees; start some backyard chickens; learn how to raise rabbits (cheap, economical, tasty and produce in small spaces); stock up on staples like rice, flour, sugar, etc; get a rain barrel for add'l water; have a woodstove; and stockpile plenty of booze for trading - that's what the people will really want.
Anyway, if you think we are headed south, but will turn out of it in the future before Mad Max takes over the badlands, I think the best thing is to keep yourself diversified. Keep with your 90% and bullion, but also keep your numismatics. And learn how to be self-suficient anyway. |
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 10:38:08
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Some good points by novillero, but to answer the original question is hard to do. Everyone's situation is different. Yes, in a SHTF scenario, numismatic value will decline or go out the window entirely. People arent going to care that you have a key date Morgan dollar. To the common folk, it's a silver dollar just like any other common date, worn dollar.
I am both a collector and a bullion hoarder of sorts, but lately I have been selling some of my numismatic stuff and buying up bullion or increasing my cash position. I have some food preps but not enough, and I have 2 handguns with a couple hundred rounds of ammo for each. My goal is to keep increasing the food preps, and add a little more to the ammo side. I'm really not sure how much ammo I should have, but I would rather have too much than not enough. |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 14:14:18
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depends what your definition of SHTF.
USA becoming like South Africa - would that be SHTF?
The dollar beoming worthless. SHTF?
Those things are possibilities. Between there and here is big disruptions - unpaid city trash workers; empty grocery shelves; opportunists roaming the streets, etc. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 18:45:34
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| I personally see no huge upside swings coming from numismatics |
Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
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keys
Penny Collector Member
383 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 20:44:20
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Considering bullion/90% coins, numismatics and the expected Supercrash-
(I prefer the term Supercrash to TEOTWAWKI or WTSHTF, Supercrash explains the expected outcome so even the man on the street can understand it.)
Each stage of the expected Supercrash (before & after) will have its effect on 90%/bullion and Numismatics-
Stage1- Things are getting bad, banks are closing/merging, jobs are disappearing. Worry sets in on the mind of the citizenry.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
Some start buying in an attempt to preserve their buying power, some for future trades.
Effects on Numismatics-
Some, but not all, coin collectors start buying less numismatic coins and concentrate on junk silver. Some collectors who have the cash or room on their credit card buy numismatic coins at prices at or slightly less than before.
Stage2-Things are getting worse, jobs are scarce, spending is down, jobs are scarce, new Hoovervilles spring up (called tent cities today) food shortages occur in a few places on a few items, food banks feel the pinch, sometimes turn people away when the food gives out.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
More are buying when they can find it, some are selling to pay the rent/mortgage/put food on the table.
Effects on Numismatics-
Collectors are declining in number due to a shortage of funds. Junk silver sells 25% better than the numismatic coins.
Stage3- Protests start, sometimes turn violent. Shoplifting in food stores increases, some turn back to nature/wooded areas, homesteads, small farms become popular with those who have money and want to put it to good use (before it loses its value) Some turn to houseboats (no property taxes, can move to greener pastures or nicer docks while in search for work, business, etc.) Underground economy flourishes, 5%-10% of all employees work for ’off the books’ businesses.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
If inflation sets in, demand is strong, if deflation sets in, demand remains high as buyers want something that will hold its value if deflation is replaced with inflation (inflation being the way that governments fight deflation.)
Effects on Numismatics-
Gold coin prices hold up but demand for high end coins declines due to a lack of buyers. Supplies of numismatic coins may increase as sellers are desperate for cash. Numismatic coins decline though the best of the best (like the 1933 double eagle) are immune to the declines.
Stage4- riots, martial law, shortages, rationing, packing up and leaving the cities for the country (or another country) are popular ideas. Good money is preferred over bad, silver buys things that clad coinage and paper money does not.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
Prices spike, charlatans come out of the woodwork offering 1965 coins as silver, silver plated coins, etc.
Legitimate suppliers have none for sale, owners keep hoards hidden or trade few for supplies with those willing to trade.
Effects on Numismatics-
Prices decline except for the best of the best. Smart owners sit tight, panicked owners dump for ready cash. Charlatans come out of the woodwork offering junk silver as numismatic rarities.
Stage 5-
Stagnation, slow growth if any, nation works its way through the economic mess. Things improve slowly, but painfully slowly.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
Some selling going on but not as much as before.
Effects on Numismatics-
Market frozen. Some selling going on but 1/10th the selling s in the good old days.
Stage 6-Rebirth stage-
Economy improving, legitimate jobs returning, new currency may be introduced, optimism returns to the economic landscape. Growth in productivity is seen everywhere.
Effects on 90%/bullion-
With fear gone and optimism in charge, owners dump their silver for cash. Junk silver prices decline.
Effects on Numismatics-
Market thaws, buyers come back, collectors seek to buy back coins they previously sold, demand goes back up. Numismatic coins regain their value.
This is just what I think will happen, I have no crystal ball or magic 8 ball to guarantee this is the future, though this seems to be what happened to other countries during their boom & bust stages in the past.
Each item bought 90%/bullion and numismatics have a better price at different times, hence diversification is the ’key’.
Buy 90%/bullion for trade, buy numismatics because you like them, both will reward you financially but at different times in the future.
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I change with the times-
but like silver coins found in your change
I stay the same.
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The United States of America started out as the new Republic of Rome.
Will The United States of America end up as the New Imperial Rome? |
Edited by - keys on 01/28/2009 20:52:20 |
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redneck
1000+ Penny Miser Member
1273 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 20:44:26
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quote:
Originally posted by highroller4321
I personally see no huge upside swings coming from numismatics
Ditto...
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Flbandit
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
851 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 21:16:38
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| The upside is only if the Supercrash doesn't happen. The values of mid to upper grade coins have held pretty steady over the last few years with some gains. Of course I break out in a sweat when I pay $100.00 for a coin, but $100 for bullion, no problem. |
Are you throwing that out? |
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daviscfad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1664 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2009 : 21:53:45
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I think that the only time high grade numismatics would be bad is if you got in a bind and had to sell...
quote:
Buy 90%/bullion for trade, buy numismatics because you like them, both will reward you financially but at different times in the future.
I agree The only thing i would add is buy 90%/bullion for purpose to sell if you get in a bind |
Inquiring minds want to know |
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oober
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1304 Posts |
Posted - 01/30/2009 : 16:13:09
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Or better yet dont buy with money you think you might need in the near future...
Num's I will buy with the knowlegde I won't be selling for a very long time(>20yr). 90%/bullion I own on a 5 yr plan.
THis means 20yr in before I sell Num's (I can choose the market to sell in) 90%/Bullion (same idea, but a shorter term window).
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kieblera5
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
859 Posts |
Posted - 01/30/2009 : 16:56:00
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See I think that numismatics will always be evident. If the dollar fails, people will just trade other items for high grade key dates. It is the "hobby of kings" and has been around since ancient times. It has gone through many hard times, but good coins have always held their premiums. If you try to sell WTSHTF then, no, you won't be able to get much for them, but eventually the problems will be over and people will still have the urge to make sets of historical coins. JMHO |
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Bullion & junk 90% vs. high grade Numismatics
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