| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
|
|
rodzm
Penny Pincher Member
USA
143 Posts |
 Posted - 11/06/2008 : 12:59:47
|
Too much volatility in the paper market, I hope the price of silver reflects the demand right now. There is huge demand but yet we are stuck at $10.xx...I dont know when paper will catch up to physical but when it does it will be ugly and those of us with physical product will rejoice.
I keep buying silver and gold on every chance I get, Im even selling some of my vintage toys to buy silver and gold |
 |
|
|
jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
128 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2008 : 13:22:10
|
If you think that silver is going only UP from this point forward, I believe the best choice will be 1000 oz bar. I think you it can be found for $0.69 cents over the spot.
Here in Canada you can buy/sell directly from the ScotiaBank, there are no premiums on bars, ScotiaBank also offers safety deposit boxes, I think a box of 30X30 is around $250/year, I do not know if the bank offers insurance for the content of the box or not.
Now if paper silver is catching the physical silver you can end up with a 20% gain, from what you subtract selling fees and safety deposit box fees, easy 10-15% profit.
Does anybody sees any drawbacks on buying 1000 oz bars?
|
Edited by - jin.coy on 11/06/2008 13:22:45 |
|
|
|
rodzm
Penny Pincher Member
USA
143 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2008 : 14:01:37
|
quote:
Originally posted by jin.coy
If you think that silver is going only UP from this point forward, I believe the best choice will be 1000 oz bar. I think you it can be found for $0.69 cents over the spot.
Here in Canada you can buy/sell directly from the ScotiaBank, there are no premiums on bars, ScotiaBank also offers safety deposit boxes, I think a box of 30X30 is around $250/year, I do not know if the bank offers insurance for the content of the box or not.
Now if paper silver is catching the physical silver you can end up with a 20% gain, from what you subtract selling fees and safety deposit box fees, easy 10-15% profit.
Does anybody sees any drawbacks on buying 1000 oz bars?
Drawbacks??? Not easily bought by the retail investor and in case of an emergency I dont think they could be turned into a quick profit. Seriously who wants to be lugging around 1,000 oz bars. 1 and 10 oz bars are easily tradeable and even 100 oz bars can be cumbersome. Im never going to be able to buy a 1,000 oz bar and even if I could I would NOT buy one.
There is a reason why silver grain/shot and 1,000 oz bars are selling for the same over spot premiums. |
|
|
|
jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
128 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2008 : 14:29:33
|
Hi rodzm,
If you like physical silver one cheap way of owning in your hands on is bars, the other day I read on the forum that there are high premiums on 100 oz bars, different premiums on different brands, 10 oz same case high premiums, look no further on ASE or CML you have $7 in premiums these days, that why I personally think that 1000 oz is close to spot.
As I mention, in Canada you can buy/sell directly from bank You must be logged in to see this link. .
Now if you do not like to "fell" the silver in your hand there are plenty of sites to buy from;
Again my personal choice is You must be logged in to see this link.
I do not like to buying junk silver, I know that trend is usually $1 or $2 dollars under the spot; when today sellers are asking $1 or $2 over the spot.
I think it depends how much money do you want to invest in silver?
If you have $10k, would you like to have all assets in junk silver? or would you like 50% in 100 oz bars, 25% in ASE/SML and rest in junk silver.
|
Edited by - jin.coy on 11/06/2008 14:41:02 |
|
|
|
killerken53
Penny Pincher Member
172 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2008 : 15:20:41
|
| The scotiabank premiums seem very reasonable, I wonder what their lead times on physical bullion is. |
|
|
|
jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
128 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 03:23:56
|
Hi guys,
I will do a small parallel to some of the stock market techniques:
In stock market you have two methods average down and accelerated Average down. I will eliminate the fees to make the numbers simple.
How I understood “average down” technique is I go today buy a 100 stock a $48/unit, if the stock is going down to $40 you buy 100 stocks at $40/unit, if the stock is going more down to $37 you buy 100 stocks at this price. The average price that I have paid for my stock is now $41.6.
“Accelerated Average down” on the other hand as the name says I will buy 100 stocks at $48/unit, 200 stocks at $40/unit and $30/unit, on average I end up paying $39.83.
Now when if I used the “average down” method when stock is starting to move up I can “bail out” at $41.6 with no losses, if I used “accelerated average down” I get same result on $39.83.
This is happening in stock markets, “financial educated people” do this every day 24/5 on all the market(Canadian, American, Russian, Asian, …)
When a big player is using “accelerated average down” he is creating a “fake“ support level, and “uneducated people” jump in at that price hoping that the worst is over.
One last this on stocks then I will move on silver, these days on the market is “crowded” there are small rooms, big players are doing this kind go methods, there is no room for small people like me or you; that will explain why we see DJIA/TSX up +5% one day and -5% the other day.
Now As promised back on silver:
IMHO I think there is no “bad time” to invest in PM, silver especially because it has a big “volatility”, what you need is a plan of action and a budget. For example you have to ask yourself what is the budget that you have for this investment, what is your method, when you have the answer you pick your silver quality vs. quantity.
Let’s see what you can buy on the market these days
1. junk silver, way over the melt for 10x sometimes 10.5x the face value.
2. circulated .999 silver, +2.99 over the spot
3. ASE, SML, Panda these are +6.99 over the spot
4. 10 oz bars, way over the spot, and the reason I think is silly, they do not manufacture anymore.
5. 100 oz bars, as I stated before I read here on the forum a link to an article that on ebay you pay 35-45% over the spot.
6. 1000 oz bars, as stated before with +.69 to +1.00 over the spot.
Now based on you answers on the budget vs. quantity vs. quality you can take a decision, you have to remember
1. that junk is usually sold -$1 or -$2 under the spot and when the prices will go up everybody will like to sell the junk first that will create a problem for dealers they will lower the buying price. Another way is to hope that you will HIT some keydates(junk) and these coins will appreciate in value.
2. “circulated .999 silver” I personally think the market is slim for these coins, buy I might be wrong, ask around.
3. ASE, SML …. when spot will be +$13, I think that every dealer will cut their premiums, If you know when to buy I think you can find these at $16/each.
4. and 5. no comments.
6. size and price is the issue, size I think you need a SDB(safety deposit box) or you can stuff it under the mattress. Again when you have more $$$ you start building your network, you talk with the dealer; he can buy it from APMEX, you talk with the teller, you leave your number at the head teller or branch manager, you have to do the same thing you do with the chocolates when you dump zincs, but in this case the stake is bigger. You need to buy some certified bars, to avoid any re-certificate fees.
You have to think about SDB cost, insurance for it, etc…. (hopefully these are fixed costs and easy to crunch).
Now back to the plan, you can apply “average down” or “accelerated down”.
Do not be afraid to invest in big bars, if you have a “plan” I think it might work.
Again I am open for comments.
|
Edited by - jin.coy on 11/07/2008 03:34:16 |
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
|
|
Quite a bid range on silver...
Forum Locked
