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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
 Posted - 07/31/2008 : 11:29:35
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NEW YORK: Inflation in the US could hit 6 per cent by the fall, CIBC World Markets' chief economist said on Wednesday.
Consumer prices for June were up 5 percent from the year before, the fastest one-year change since 1991. Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist of Toronto-based investment bank CIBC, predicts a 6 per cent rate for overall inflation, a level last seen in 1982.
His reasoning: Increased shipping costs are making goods produced in the United States more competitive with goods shipped from China.
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``High energy prices give American manufacturing workers bargaining power that they have lacked for over a decade, while at the same time encouraging them to ask for larger pay raises to keep pace with the soaring price of gasoline,'' Rubin wrote.
If workers can bargain for cost of living increases, sparking inflation further, then interest rates will rise too, Rubin predicted.
``The last time we saw 6 per cent inflation in 1990, the federal funds rate was running at around 7.5 per cent _ over three times today's setting. And a 10-year Treasury bond was yielding 8.5 per cent _ over double what it yields today.''
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The silver [is] mine, and the gold [is] mine, saith the LORD of hosts. Hag 2:8 [/b]
He created it. He controls it. He gave it to us for His use. Why did we turn from sound scriptural currency that PROTECTS us?
KJV Bible w/ Strong's Concordance: http://www.blueletterbible.org/
The book of The Hundreds: http://www.land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/boh/bookOfTheHundreds_v4.1.pdf
The Two Republics: http://www.whitehorsemedia.com/docs/THE_TWO_REPUBLICS.pdf
Good reading: http://ecclesia.org/truth/government.html
A number of people are educated beyond, sometimes way beyond, their intelligence. - Tenbears
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2008 : 14:18:02
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Inflation is over 8% right now using the government's own calculations. The only caveat is that they are the calculations that the government use to use pre-Clinton...lies within lies within lies.
The pre-Clinton lies were not good enough so they had to come up with a new ones. Now that the current lies are starting to show inflation, expect new ones soon.
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Edited by - horgad on 07/31/2008 14:20:14 |
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Know Common Cents
Penny Pincher Member
195 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2008 : 15:52:11
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I agree with Horgad. The true rate of inflation is about 12-15% by my estimation. The government is the only ones who can cook their own books and get away with it. I do believe, though, that more and more people are getting wise to these underhanded antics. All it takes is a couple of trips to the grocery store. Food inflation is occurring in two ways. The product weight (even inside the same packaging) is being reduced by 10-20% and even the prices are going up.
I buy Purina One lamb and rice for my Golden Retriever. I was paying about $16.95 for a 20lb bag at Wal-Mart until just a few months ago. Then the switch was made to 18 lb bags at the same price. Now it's the 18 lb bags for $18.79. Look at cans of coffee, boxes of cereal (Cheerios for example) and just about everything else that's sold by weight. We're getting fleeced big time. I do understand that transportation costs are rising and those need to be passed through to the consumer, but that begs the question why this entire oil spike happened in the first place.
Oil prices are dropping (per barrel price), but the gasoline here in WI that was $3.79/gal last week has jumped back to $3.99/gal. Inflation figures from the Feds today are the highest that have been recorded since 1981. If you weren't alive in that era, do some research and you'll realize that we're in for nasty, nasty times.
FYI--I bought my first house in 1982. I was thrilled to be paying 11.75% interest on a land contract instead of the 14-16% mortgages that were available. Here we go again. |
Here in Wisconsin, we have some of the highest property and gasoline taxes in the US. We're squeezed so much, I have to make my daughter wear penny boxes for shoes. At least she has an endless supply. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2008 : 20:58:43
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I could write a long list of things going up that are not food or petroleum products.
toothpaste, bar soap, otc medicines (like aspirin), dog food, ebay fees, grass seed, paper products..and on and on... |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2008 : 21:17:03
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quote:
Originally posted by fb101
I could write a long list of things going up that are not food or petroleum products.
toothpaste, bar soap, otc medicines (like aspirin), dog food, ebay fees, grass seed, paper products..and on and on...
Food and Petroleum are part of some of that stuff. Dog Food for example is Food based. All of them require petroleum to get them to market.
Petroleum is used in a lot of packages and chemicals as well.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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n/a
deleted
41 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2008 : 19:54:15
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by fb101
I could write a long list of things going up that are not food or petroleum products.
toothpaste, bar soap, otc medicines (like aspirin), dog food, ebay fees, grass seed, paper products..and on and on...
Food and Petroleum are part of some of that stuff. Dog Food for example is Food based. All of them require petroleum to get them to market.
Petroleum is used in a lot of packages and chemicals as well.
-SWUSC
I just love the way you phrased that. "Dog Food for example is Food based.". But yeah, packaging costs also factor in oil prices. Just think about how much plastic is out there. |
I'm not gone, I'm just lurking. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 08/08/2008 : 14:17:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
But isn't the real question how long that rate of inflation lasts and not just the rate itself? 6 percent inflation for six months is still just a 3 percent increase. The problem comes not from inflation itself but from wages not keeping pace with inflation--and I think pretty much all of us can agree that wages aren't increasing at the rate of inflation.
Oil, Gold, and silver are going down. I think M2 money supply is dropping too. I would guess that the velocity of money is also dropping with economy. Could we be deleveraging?
I wish the tea leaves would make a clearly picture. I highly doubt helicopter Ben is going to let us deleverage into a period of deflation. I think they will do something to force the M2 numbers to start increasing again.
Cut rates some more and issue another tax rebate check after the new year/election? This one might have more size to it.
-SWUSC
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 08/09/2008 : 19:05:49
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
But isn't the real question how long that rate of inflation lasts and not just the rate itself? 6 percent inflation for six months is still just a 3 percent increase. The problem comes not from inflation itself but from wages not keeping pace with inflation--and I think pretty much all of us can agree that wages aren't increasing at the rate of inflation.
Oil, Gold, and silver are going down. I think M2 money supply is dropping too. I would guess that the velocity of money is also dropping with economy. Could we be deleveraging?
I wish the tea leaves would make a clearly picture. I highly doubt helicopter Ben is going to let us deleverage into a period of deflation. I think they will do something to force the M2 numbers to start increasing again.
Cut rates some more and issue another tax rebate check after the new year/election? This one might have more size to it.
-SWUSC
-SWUSC
Without a doubt, the velocity of money has slowed considerably, and the consequences to the economy will be disasterous.
We've become a nation that runs on debt, funded largely by foreign central banks.
The housing boom -- which resulted from cheap credit, rampant speculation and the abandonment of lending standards -- has come to a bust. Already many financial institutions are cutting existing home equity lines of credit by as much as 50%. (No more credit against that house Mr Consumer, until we see if real estate values stabilize).
Credit card limits are also being lowered...quietly. That's a major clue! With the exorbitant rates most cards charge, why would they want to limit your indebtedness, hmmm? For the past twenty years they've pushed credit like crack dealers, with roughly the same moral hazard issues.
So now we've got a nation with negative savings rates, personal and government debt out the wazzoo, and the chief source of this credit bonanza, real estate values which were supposed to go UP and UP and UP forever amen, are falling.
So, if people...I'm sorry, ifconsumers can't borrow, they can't spend. And if they can't spend, then we don't have an economy, because we don't produce much of anything....besides debt.
Now, back to those foreigners holding our dollars: When our econony tanks, and the governments revenues dry up (low-no velocity of money = reduced tax revenues), they'll just put more T-bills up for sale. But the foreign buyers are already getting ancy. They've already got many boatloads of these notes, and they've lost 60% of their value over the last six years. At some point they WILL say, "You know what, we don't want these IOU's anymore, in fact, we're just gonna buy up whatever hard assets you've got left over there just to get rid of what we've already got."
When close to 3 trillion dollars come flooding back into the US, it's all over but the crying folks.
So there's my take on things. If I may suggest some good reading on the subject, Crash Proof, by Peter Schiff spells it all out very clearly, and he gives some good insight into the practices of stock brokers and mutual fund managers that are a real eye-opener. I am generally loath to spend $28 on a book unless it is worth many times that, and I feel this one definately was. I was a little put off by his suggestion to purchase foreign assets, but with such limited choices for good capital investments domestically, and given that the dollar is collapsing, I'm warming to the idea. Hey, at least it would be bringing dividends back into the country instead of more conspicuous consumption crap.
Sweet dreams fellow hoarders.......
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2008 : 09:13:22
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And here comes that tital wave of dollars, coming home to roost. From todays New York Post.
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A sovereign fund would have two distinct advantages over other investors - the depressed value of the US dollar makes the homes a bargain, and sovereign funds have deeper pockets.
The sovereign fund of Abu Dhabi, for example, has a reported $875 billion in assets, while Norway has $391 billion, Singapore has $303 billion and Kuwait has $264 billion in their sovereign funds, which are funded by proceeds from oil sales.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2008 : 22:38:54
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I think that is a possible outcome. In theory (no way to know if it will happen like this) a mass exit like that should cause hard assets to inflate due to demand/supply issues... this should in theory suck up foreign dollars. You know the government will print like crazy to try and protect the hard assets (increasing the price)... it will/would be painful for all U.S. citizens, but it would end up being the greatest rip off of all time. What the world gave up for those dollars will be many more times than what they get for them in return.
I think that might keep them from running for the doors... then again if they think they could hit the door first... Who knows. I pray the pain and punishment is controlled. The borrower is a slave to the lender.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2008 : 08:29:46
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govt reported inflation is now at 6.1%
under the old rules, its 13.4%. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2008 : 09:55:49
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| So, is our copper coin collecting gonna be a hedge or what? |
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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2008 : 10:45:53
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| I’ll admit that my wife does most of the grocery shopping but it is very noticeable, even to me, the number of items that are shrinking in size. The breakfast bars at one time had six in a package now have five. The ice cream container is either smaller or they are not filling it as high. Overall it seems the package ounces have dropped in almost everything and it is becoming a shell game. If the price has not increase the amount they give you for what you are paying has gone down! |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Cody8404
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
602 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2008 : 14:47:44
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I know the government gives us one set of inflationary numbers. I like to look at things for my self. Looking at the price of the items I buy, eggs, gas, milk tells me just how bad it is getting.
It is getting pretty bad. Thought the 1980's were bad, yes I remember the 1980's. I am beginning to think this may be worse than the 1930's, no I don't remember the 1930's, but I do know how to read and my parents have raised me remembering the Great Depression. But this time around there are no farms, or ranches for people to fall back on to survive. People are so specialized we can't fix our own cars, can't raise our own food, or make our own clothes.
I also use simple math:
a twenty dollar (one ounce) gold peice should be worth $20, but it is selling for $823. $20/823 makes each dollar today worth 2.4 cents.
a US silver dollar (one ounce) is selling for $13.34 of 1/13.34 makes each dollar worth 7.4 cents. Then I average the two. 2.4+7.4= 6.1 cents
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Awake, O kings of the earth! Come ye, O, come ye, with your gold and your silver, to the help of my people, to the house of the daughters of Zion, to the help of the people of the God of this Land even Jesus Christ. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2008 : 16:51:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
If workers can bargain for cost of living increases, sparking inflation further, then interest rates will rise too, Rubin predicted.
Repeat after me:
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
-Milton Friedman
The workers bargaining for increased wages are a symptom, not the cause of inflation. Any "economist" stating otherwise should be relieved of his degrees.  
"Only you can prevent forest fires", and only the Fed increasing the supply of money at a rate that exceeds ACTUAL growth in production can create inflation.
Exams Monday will be in essay form, 5 questions representing half of your grade! 
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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6% US inflation is coming : Economist
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