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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
 Posted - 05/19/2008 : 08:34:33
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Even if copper price corrected 50%, a price increase of 5% a year thereafter would make saving Cu pennies a wiser investment than bonds or CDs.
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misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 14:59:33
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If you are paying Face value I think You can answer that question yourself.Even if you are paying 1.5c each like some do copper would have to plummet to make you lose money.
And remember IF TSHTF your CD's are worthless but you coppers just skyrocketed. |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 16:29:53
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| I'll play devil's advocate and say that copper prices drop. It seems too convenient that we have this metal at roughly 40% of going costs available too easily right now. Something has to give. Either the mint switches to steel coins soon or copper price drops or both happen. Probably the last happens. |
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Mike
Penny Sorter Member
USA
65 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 18:11:07
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| Copper mining and refining are big users of both electricity and diesel. I don't see the price of these going down, not to mention Union wages. The cost of copper production has got to be increasing at 5% per year, or more. I just don't see how the price of copper, or nickel, can do anything but continue to increase. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 18:18:24
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I did a little digging to find out what the price of copper was way back in 1981-1982 and the closest I could come up with was the scrap price.
You must be logged in to see this link.
This is a pdf file.
Page 5 has the graph.
The detail to consider is this:
Back in 1981 when the plan to remove copper from the penny was passed, the copper price was 80¢ per pound, and even at that low price it was getting too expensive to produce the penny out of 95% copper.
(The price for new copper, not scrap copper, might have been higher but I am having trouble finding the price as far back as 1981.)
Could the price of copper fall to the point where there is only one penny's worth of copper in a penny?
Factoring in demand from China and india, Inflation pushing up the price of commodities, increased supply to meet demand, and considering that the price of copper would have to fall all the way back to 1981 prices, I would have to say no.
I am not saying that the price of copper could not decline in the future, though the decline in copper's price would also effect other commodities prices.
Many have called the red metal "Dr. Copper" since the health of the economy is judged by the demand of copper, and so far the economy of the world is healthy as per the good doctor's opinion. |
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topeka
Penny Pincher Member
160 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 22:10:57
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It could be argued that the best thing that could happen to all of us is that copper drops to 80 cents per pound and stays there for 20 years!
What that would mean is that we have a strong dollar, no inflation, stable prices, the feces doesn't hit the fan, we all keep our jobs, no world wide catastrophes, no world wars, etc. |
Silver..poor mans gold
Copper..peasant silver |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2008 : 23:04:15
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I think the question we should be asking here, however, is how much does copper need to keep going up to outpace inflation?
I like Topeka's comment. Falling/low prices are good- they indicate economic growth and sound money. |
"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." -Ron Paul, from _The Revolution: A Manifesto_ |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 05/20/2008 : 09:26:18
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quote:
Originally posted by topeka
It could be argued that the best thing that could happen to all of us is that copper drops to 80 cents per pound and stays there for 20 years!
What that would mean is that we have a strong dollar, no inflation, stable prices, the feces doesn't hit the fan, we all keep our jobs, no world wide catastrophes, no world wars, etc.
I'll just click my ruby slippers together and say "Coppers going to .80 a pound" - three times. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 05/20/2008 : 15:53:11
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Quote:
I think the question we should be asking here, however, is how much does copper need to keep going up to outpace inflation?
I like Topeka's comment. Falling/low prices are good- they indicate economic growth and sound money.
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Aaaah, the gist of my psychological hedge. If you hoard copper, the economy will improve. It is when you have no contingency that you have paper dollars left hoping that stocks, jobs, and life in general returns. |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 05/20/2008 : 16:16:48
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Assuming you could get spot...which i doubt.... then the price of copper needs to drop to $1.62 (154 pennies to a pound)
Assuming you could get 80% of spot at a scrap dealer... $2.02 or so to break even.
If copper crashes to $2 a pound due to a strong dollar, then your bonds are going to kill copper even getting copper pennies at face value. I doubt you get 5% growth in copper prices with a strong dollar. (the price might actually keep dropping)
Due you really think the dollar is going to get stronger? I see no signs of government spending less and I don't see tax receipts growing fast enough to make up for the current short fall. If you can't tax the shortfall, then you have to print it in the form of FRN and Treasuries. Printing it causes inflation.
-SWUSC
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`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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If copper prices went up 5% per a year
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