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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
 Posted - 08/23/2006 : 00:06:09
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As per coinflation today, each box $100 box of US nickels is now worth $142 unsorted.
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Tourney64
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1035 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2006 : 10:28:53
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| It's worth $100.. It has metal content worth $142. Until someone offers you more than face value, it's only worth face value. |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2006 : 17:40:16
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| Potato, potahto |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 08/23/2006 : 20:01:06
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quote:
Originally posted by Tourney64
It's worth $100.. It has metal content worth $142. Until someone offers you more than face value, it's only worth face value.
Party pooper! But of course you are soooooooo right. Who is going to give me 42% over face value if they can go down to the bank and get it themselves at face? Which leads to the question; When will a premium develop for nickels and copper pennies? I can tell you this, when I hoarded silver coins out of circulation as a kid, it was the same situation as now with copper pennies. No one would give you even a 3% premium on them until they disappear from circulation.
As for nickels, the mint is still pumping them out like they did with the 40% silver half dollars even as the 90% silver coins dissappeared from circulation.
I believe that a market will soon (within a year) develop for pre-82s like it did for Wheat cents. Nickels will take longer but that's O.K, it gives me more time to hoard them.
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If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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143 Posts |
Posted - 08/28/2006 : 00:29:38
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AL, thank you for your valuable experience on silver hoarding,
another question is, did you still have any silver left for sale when silver hit more than 50 dollars an ounce in 1980? were any coin dealers or bullion traders able to offer you a buying price anywhere near that? |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 08/28/2006 : 19:45:23
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quote:
Originally posted by ballcopper
AL, thank you for your valuable experience on silver hoarding,
another question is, did you still have any silver left for sale when silver hit more than 50 dollars an ounce in 1980? were any coin dealers or bullion traders able to offer you a buying price anywhere near that?
You are welcome of course, but I don't know just how valuable anything I have to say is.............
Truth be told, I never had the opportunity to sell off my coins at Silver's peak price. It was many years back and it was a different ballgame back then. No internet. To get price quotes I would have to check the newpaper for closing quotes. There was a toll free number, but it was always jammed when things got hot. The local dealers where not paying anything close to spot price. I think most were paying in the 30s. I can't say I would have not done the same. With the fast upward movement in price they feared getting stuck with high price silver in a turn-around market. I'm sure some did. One other thing back then, I worried about SHTF and I didn't know if it was happening then. I didn't understand why silver was on a rocket ride up. It made it tough to decide if I should sell or was the price really going to blast off over $100. This talk about SHTF is nothing new. Back in the late 70s there was lots of talk about potential hyperinflation.
What I'm about to say is just my opinion so please folks don't take offense to it.  But as always feel free to disagree. I'm concern when I hear predictions of $200 silver in today's dollars. Sure, silver is under-valued. With the recent price increase of nickel that is clear to me. But as far as silver's industrial value (not monetary value) in today's dollars I really don't think it's true value is that high ($200). Now if SHTF then that's another ballgame! But that will be silver's monetary value kicking in. Silver hit over $50 in 79/80 but how long did it last? How long has it been since it was that high? Consider the facts about the Hunt brothers and why silver hit over $50 back then. Then maybe you will understand what I'm trying to say. But yes, there is a lot less silver out there now then there was then. And yes, there is more demand dispite the photo. industry's buying decline. Until SHTF I'm more concern about silver's industrial value.
The reason I'm saying all of this is because I feel that silver is going to hit a spike peak again within 2-3 years. Maybe sooner. You name the price that it's going to hit. Your guess is as good as mine. But unless SHTF and hyperinflation is here, I believe you will see silver's price quickly decline again. But not as low as you see it now. When that peak comes you will have to decide to sell and use the FRNs to buy something else (maybe land?) or continue to hold on to silver incase SHTF. Or maybe both in a 50/50 split. Don't expect to get top spot price at the peak for your physical silver. In other words, have an exit plan in place.
I got something to say about selling your nickels and copper pennies but I'll post that later.
Your Old Fart Truly,
Ardent Listener
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
Edited by - Ardent Listener on 08/28/2006 19:55:08 |
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38 Posts |
Posted - 08/28/2006 : 20:45:41
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
quote:
Originally posted by ballcopper
AL, thank you for your valuable experience on silver hoarding,
another question is, did you still have any silver left for sale when silver hit more than 50 dollars an ounce in 1980? were any coin dealers or bullion traders able to offer you a buying price anywhere near that?
You are welcome of course, but I don't know just how valuable anything I have to say is.............
Truth be told, I never had the opportunity to sell off my coins at Silver's peak price. It was many years back and it was a different ballgame back then. No internet. To get price quotes I would have to check the newpaper for closing quotes. There was a toll free number, but it was always jammed when things got hot. The local dealers where not paying anything close to spot price. I think most were paying in the 30s. I can't say I would have not done the same. With the fast upward movement in price they feared getting stuck with high price silver in a turn-around market. I'm sure some did. One other thing back then, I worried about SHTF and I didn't know if it was happening then. I didn't understand why silver was on a rocket ride up. It made it tough to decide if I should sell or was the price really going to blast off over $100. This talk about SHTF is nothing new. Back in the late 70s there was lots of talk about potential hyperinflation.
What I'm about to say is just my opinion so please folks don't take offense to it. But as always feel free to disagree. I'm concern when I hear predictions of $200 silver in today's dollars. Sure, silver is under-valued. With the recent price increase of nickel that is clear to me. But as far as silver's industrial value (not monetary value) in today's dollars I really don't think it's true value is that high ($200). Now if SHTF then that's another ballgame! But that will be silver's monetary value kicking in. Silver hit over $50 in 79/80 but how long did it last? How long has it been since it was that high? Consider the facts about the Hunt brothers and why silver hit over $50 back then. Then maybe you will understand what I'm trying to say. But yes, there is a lot less silver out there now then there was then. And yes, there is more demand dispite the photo. industry's buying decline. Until SHTF I'm more concern about silver's industrial value.
The reason I'm saying all of this is because I feel that silver is going to hit a spike peak again within 2-3 years. Maybe sooner. You name the price that it's going to hit. Your guess is as good as mine. But unless SHTF and hyperinflation is here, I believe you will see silver's price quickly decline again. But not as low as you see it now. When that peak comes you will have to decide to sell and use the FRNs to buy something else (maybe land?) or continue to hold on to silver incase SHTF. Or maybe both in a 50/50 split. Don't expect to get top spot price at the peak for your physical silver. In other words, have an exit plan in place.
I got something to say about selling your nickels and copper pennies but I'll post that later.
Your Old Fart Truly,
Ardent Listener
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill
We're anxiously awaiting your nickel and penny opinion. |
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deleted
143 Posts |
Posted - 08/29/2006 : 02:53:54
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quote:
Originally posted by yeldarb
We're anxiously awaiting your nickel and penny opinion.
YEP |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 08/29/2006 : 10:47:15
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I already posted on how I feel that copper pennies will be taken out of circulation, for the most part, in about a year. The goverment or large corporations may already be hoarding them too. Only then do I expect to see a solid market develop for copper pennies. If they are demonetized it will speed up the scrap yard market for them. But as the demand for copper continues to go up they are too much of a source of supply to sit by the side-line forever. I could be wrong, but I don't expect to see your local scrap yard buying pennies by the pound. Instead, I expect there will be buyers traveling the country makeing offers for your copper pennies at a rather low percentage over their face value. These buyers will be the first wave of the copper penny market. They in turn will start to supply either scrap yards, or more likely, large dealers who will eventually re-sale them much like 90% silver coins are sold now.
After these carpet-bagger buyers shake out as much as they can from the eager to sell pennies hoarder, the price for copper pennies will start to sky-rocket. Like many of you said, they should develop a market over and above their metal value alone.
Now the question is; how much of an impact will this new supply of copper have on the copper market price? I don't think they will push the price of copper down much because most will not see the melting pot. One will have to decide if he or she wants to hold on to them for long term profits or take a bird in the hand now.
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If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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deleted
13 Posts |
Posted - 08/29/2006 : 15:42:48
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Ardent Listener,
I was just a pup in the '60s - '70s, so I especially appreciate your views. My general view is this - the dollar went from a gold (or bi-metallic) standard, to an oil standard, and is now being faced with having little or no standard at all. When a few oil producing opec countries start selling oil for anything other than dollars, I don't know if it will qualify as SHTF globally, but the US will be faced with a much devalued dollar.
"How much" is anyone's guess. With regard to silver, who knows if it will take $50, $200 or $2000 to purchase an ounce. I'll be all about purchasing power - how much bread, gasoline, property etc. in exchange for our copper, nickel or silver/gold. The dollar might be "toast", but not for eating.
I also think any bullish case that can be made for copper and nickel can also be made for silver - perhaps even a little moreso since silver has that extra monetary kick. Not dissing the base metals, of course. However, as you suggest, silver can be quite volatile.
JMO, as always
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The revolution will not be televised... |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 08/29/2006 : 20:24:54
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| Yeah, I wonder when we'll see other middle east countries start trying to sell oil for non-american money. Sadam tried to do it with France, but that led to an invasion of his country. However, I believe it is eventually inevitable, as US paper becomes more and more plentiful. |
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ImperialFleet
Penny Pincher Member
USA
217 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2006 : 17:19:05
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Ardent, with respect to your doubt of $200/ozt silver all I will say is that the fundamentals of silver are completely backwards now compared to the late 70's and early 80's. Back then, the price was driven up artificially by the long buyers. Now the price is being suppressed down artificially by unethical short buyers. When these shorts are finally broken, and they will be broken sooner or later, prices will skyrocket and that will only be compounded further by institutional investors trying to ride the bull. Everyone thinks I am nuts, but I see silver going into four digit numbers and there are real factors that could make it go there.
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“Ultimately, the Fed can flood the system by buying any kind of asset, or even dropping bank notes from helicopters" -Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2006 : 19:48:26
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| Shorts aren't immoral - just friggin' risky. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2006 : 20:22:45
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quote:
Originally posted by Canadian_Nickle
Shorts aren't immoral - just friggin' risky.
And those who short can't continue to do so forever if there is a shortage of silver.
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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ImperialFleet
Penny Pincher Member
USA
217 Posts |
Posted - 09/01/2006 : 20:59:38
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I am not saying ALL shorting is wrong, just shorting in excess of outstanding inventories. If Microsoft only has one million shares, it is against basic economic principles as well as SEC rules to short eight million shares of Microsoft. This is exactly what is occurring in silver, so why are commodities any different? Call it whatever you want, but I say it is immoral to short sell a commodity in excess of !8 times! that the exchanges store in their warehouses. What if the longs on those contracts all called for physical delivery? Then what would happen? A default on the exchange is what; and all because of immoral price suppression techniques by the shorts. It will happen, just like what happened to nickel.
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“Ultimately, the Fed can flood the system by buying any kind of asset, or even dropping bank notes from helicopters" -Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke |
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Buy US nickel boxes.!
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