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 Question about deflation/stagflation and PM
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Nickelless
Administrator


USA
5580 Posts

Posted - 02/14/2008 :  03:11:09  Show Profile Send Nickelless a Private Message
OK, so I've got around $1500 in silver (mostly coins, but also several dozen sterling spoons I've bought on eBay) and I got to wondering, let's say that deflation and/or stagflation kick in yet PM prices don't rise appreciably, or maybe even drop. What would be the prudent thing to do with PM in such a situation, depending upon one's preference--trade it for other currencies (maybe the euro), swap it for other goods that could be traded for food, trade it directly for food, etc.? Since the United States has never been in a situation like post-WW1 and WW2 Europe, where barter was the MO, how could this play out in our country?


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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
3890 Posts

Posted - 02/14/2008 :  07:02:38  Show Profile Send NotABigDeal a Private Message
I would try to swap the spoons for some bars or rounds. Easier to trade for. I like 90% as well....I'm not into currencies personally. I would hold it unless you NEED to trade/sell. Opinions only naturally, I've been wrong before....once.

Deal

Live free or die.
Plain and simple.

"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams
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fiatboy
Administrator



912 Posts

Posted - 02/14/2008 :  11:13:49  Show Profile Send fiatboy a Private Message
Anyone's guess is as good as mine, but I suggest holding onto the silver as it is until you want to trade it for something very specific and necessary, like food. In other words, don't trade it for further speculation or investment purposes. Trade it for something you really need. Even if silver doesn't rise in prise, it most likely will maintain its purchasing power better than almost anything else. If you're interested in having other currencies or bartering goods, buy them now with cash. Don't touch the silver! Heck, I'd even keep the sterling spoons and use them to eat with!

"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson
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Ardent Listener
Administrator



USA
4841 Posts

Posted - 02/14/2008 :  17:40:56  Show Profile Send Ardent Listener a Private Message
We may not be answering your question, but try to look at silver or PMs as iceing on the cake. Make sure you have your basic needs such as food put away first. Then of course cash. Copper pennies and/or nickels can make up a part of that. Currencies such as the Euro or Yen could also be a part too. Then PMs. That is not to say you can't build all three at the same time. But know where your priorities are.

If you where to feel that silver is going to lose its value quickly or more quickly than U.S. cash then you will have to judge for yourself what to move into at the time. Things change so quickly that it is tough to predict that from where we are right now.

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Think positive.
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member



USA
651 Posts

Posted - 02/14/2008 :  20:38:08  Show Profile Send starwarsgeek171 a Private Message
IMHO, get rid of the spoons and keep the silver. You may regret selling it (as eventually you'll want to establish a position in silver as part of a well-rounded financial portfolio), and you will certainly need it if TS ever really does HTF (although I've heard great cases made in favor of guns, ammo, etc. over PMs in that scenario). Cover all of your bases (2-3 months of living expenses in savings, stocks/bonds, mutual funds, retirement funds, PMs, etc.) before worrying about Euros and the such.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2209 Posts

Posted - 02/15/2008 :  20:52:14  Show Profile Send pencilvanian a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless

OK, so I've got around $1500 in silver (mostly coins, but also several dozen sterling spoons I've bought on eBay) and I got to wondering, let's say that deflation and/or stagflation kick in yet PM prices don't rise appreciably, or maybe even drop. What would be the prudent thing to do with PM in such a situation, depending upon one's preference--trade it for other currencies (maybe the euro), swap it for other goods that could be traded for food, trade it directly for food, etc.? Since the United States has never been in a situation like post-WW1 and WW2 Europe, where barter was the MO, how could this play out in our country?



I agree with NotABigDeal, sell the sterling spoons for either cash or some other form of silver (silver rounds or Morgan or Peace dollars.) Unless you really like the spoons and look upon them as future antiques, I would sell them for an easier tradable commodity.

Perhaps a bit off topic, but there is bartering going on in the US through barter clubs and the like, maybe look into bartering and develop some contacts or customers who would trade what you have for what you want(food, supplies, etc.). It is best to do it now while the economy is slowing but not stopped than try to do this when the recession/stagflation really kicks in and bartering might be hard to do or you will be offered less for your silver.

(Some days I can't spell worth a darn.)

Edited by - pencilvanian on 02/15/2008 20:54:20
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Know Common Cents
Penny Pincher Member



195 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2008 :  16:33:46  Show Profile Send Know Common Cents a Private Message
I agree that the spoons are expendible (if you're inclined), but I'd put a definite hold on selling the US 90% silver coin. Granted, it doesn't pay any interest, but just think where you'd be after selling it. So you have a wad of cash. What then? The rate of REAL inflation is much higher than what's reported by the government. Even if you'd try to earn something by putting the bulk of the money into a CD or savings account, rates have fallen off of the cliff there. CD rates for one year are now generally below 3.5% APY. Pretty sad.

One case where I'd advise selling off some of the silver coin would be if you have credit card debt. Then, I'd take full advantage of the high silver prices and knock back those balances with the lofty monthly interest charges. You'd only need to sell what you needed to bring that to a tolerable level, but you get the 2 for 1 effect by getting $$$$$ for the coins and you're saving lots of future money that you'd have paid in painful interest.

Geez. I sound like I'm giving you fatherly advice and that's not my intent. Some of us (yes, including myself, too) have gotten smarter with the passage of time and after experiencing many different life scenarios. You're considering your options and that's very positive. Smart move.

Here in Wisconsin, we have some of the highest property and gasoline taxes in the US. We're squeezed so much, I have to make my daughter wear penny boxes for shoes. At least she has an endless supply.
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Nickelless
Administrator



USA
5580 Posts

Posted - 02/20/2008 :  13:03:43  Show Profile Send Nickelless a Private Message
I don't have any debt other than student loans, but I'm making the minimum payment on those until I get a sufficient reserve fund (aiming for 6 months worth of income) stashed away in a safe-deposit box. I appreciate the tip on the barter clubs. Know of any in particular? I guess I could just Google it though, couldn't I? :)


Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively

---------------

Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html

Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp
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