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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 12/20/2007 : 20:58:50
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Platinum Hits Record High on Auto Demand Philadelphia Daily News
JACKIE FARWELL The Associated Press NEW YORK - Platinum rose to record levels Tuesday on expectations that demand for the metal used as a catalyst in automobiles will stay strong in 2008, with more people behind the wheel in developing countries like China. Other precious metals rose as well, while energy prices fluctuated on mixed expectations for Wednesday's inventories report. Agricultural futures fell. Global inventories of platinum have grown increasingly tight as automakers try to meet...
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All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
 Posted - 12/21/2007 : 07:44:44
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I've had a small bet on palladium since it was in the $250s. There is some flexibility in the choice between using platinum or palladium when building a catalyltic converter. However, I've heard that the switch-over in designs is a fairly big undertaking. So the decision to switch is not done lightly.
This flexibility in the past has caused a delayed reaction move in the lower priced partner metal. Example in 2000 palladium hit $1000 dollars an ounce then fell as people switched from platinum to palladium and then back to platinum. The platinum price has been moving up ever since. The bigger the gap between the two metals the bigger the opportunity and currently the gap is BIG.
The biggest risk for both of the metals in my mind has always been a US recession and the associated decreased automobile production in the US. This is happening right now, but the prices continue to rise.
China apparently is growing fast enough to make up for our troubles...so far. While we lower interest rates because our economy is sluggish, they are raising theirs because there economy is on fire. If the US economy continues to slow, China's economy will be the key to all commodities including our much beloved copper pennies. Given that, this article is very good news. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 07:56:45
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| Someone on CNBC this morning was calling for China to maintain at least much of its current growth up until its Olympic Games. Then it will have to slow down due to inflationary pressures. So if true, we may see even lower metal prices this Summer than usual. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 17:05:56
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I've been researching platinum quite a bit lately, and it's stunning how many different industrial uses it has. Even if its price starts to limit its demand and opens doors for other PGMs, I'm beginning to think that platinum will always be a good buy for its scarcity, if nothing else. Is $1600 that far off? The big boys that play with platinum have very deep pockets.
I'm still bullish on palladium, but only long term---3 to 5 years out. It could well dip next year with the Russia's selling. Jewelers, especially, have taken a liking to palladium. It's precious, has novelty appeal, cheaper than platinum, cheaper than gold, it doesn't tarnish like silver, and it's a white metal---always popular in the jewelry world, especially since silver is so reactive and nickel is pretty much despised by most high-end jewelers. |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 19:33:02
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| Nickel jewelry presents a big allergy problem for a lot of people. I was at China Mart's jewelry department a while back and to kill time I was looking at some information about class rings. One of the ring choices was an alloy made of both palladium and silver. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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aloneibreak
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
672 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 19:58:11
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i bought a few ounces of palladium rounds a few years ago from NWTM mined by stillwater mining company and refined by johnson mathey. i bought them in the 1/10 oz size strictly to sell on ebay. i sold most of them off when prices were close to $400. they sold better than i expected - doesnt seem to be any lack of buyers at the small amounts. ive saved a few just hoping prices will shoot back up eventually.
i have less than an ounce of platinum - it got out of my range way too fast.
ive read quite a bit on each of these metals as well. i do not see platinum going down anytime soon. i'll stick to copper and silver thank you. |
My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.
Thomas Jefferson
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 20:09:00
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The problem with palladium is it is hard to find buyers if you want to sell. I can go to numerous places and offload gold or silver without a problem. Dealers around hear don't deal in it that I know of. I don't like using the mail if I don't have to. I have used it though. I can't say the idea of owning some hasn't crossed my mind. I just have a hard time spending gold or silver money on something I'm not so sure about. Usually I find that it (palladium) comes with a high premium. Anybody know where to get it with decent premium and shipping? Might buy a little if deal is sweet. eBay is usually too high.
Deal
p.s. Anybody actually have some? Oh yea, where to sell? |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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n/a
deleted
192 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 20:47:53
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Fiatboy:
If you have the time, could you please elaborate on the statement that you made above,
"nickel is pretty much despised by most high-end jewelers."
I would love to know whatever detailed information you have about this.
Please tell us what you know about this specific and narrow aspect of the metal market.
I'm all ears!!
Thank you in advance for your gerous time and knowledge sharing. |
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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
John Maynard Keynes,
English economist (1883 - 1946)
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 22:40:58
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quote:
Fiatboy:
If you have the time, could you please elaborate on the statement that you made above,
"nickel is pretty much despised by most high-end jewelers."
I would love to know whatever detailed information you have about this.
Please tell us what you know about this specific and narrow aspect of the metal market.
I'm all ears!!
Thank you in advance for your gerous time and knowledge sharing.
No problem. First of all, Ardent Listener nailed the gist of it:
quote:
Nickel jewelry presents a big allergy problem for a lot of people. I was at China Mart's jewelry department a while back and to kill time I was looking at some information about class rings. One of the ring choices was an alloy made of both palladium and silver.
Jewelers don't want to take a chance with allergic reactions, so they don't bother.
Without getting into all the boring details and minutiae, here's the short version of my experience with jewelry. First of all, I'm no expert, and my knowledge isn't detailed, per se, I've just been fortunate enough to be around experienced people. I used to work at a coin and high-end jewelry store. Although I worked in the coin department, and coins are my main interest, I was required to attend jewelry conventions, gem shows, and the like. Additionally, every week, all the staff would attend a professional development meeting. We'd have experts come in and teach us about metals and gems. Sometimes representatives from fancy-shmancy jewelers came in to sell us their wares. Nickel was a joke to these jokers.
What was so cool was that on a daily basis I was around people that had worked in mines, refineries, as well as some very knowledgeable people who teach classes at the G.I.A. I picked their brains as much as I could. A lot of stuff I learned was over my head, but every little bit adds up. Even before this job, I attended jewelry conventions, refiners seminars, and stuff like that, simply because I enjoy this stuff. Gemstones, metals, and jewelry have always interested me, especially what's trendy and fashionable (my girlfriend is a model, so I'm always around fashion stuff.) 
When I lived in Switzerland in 2005, I befriended a woman who worked at a top-of-the-line jewelery store on the Zurich Bahnhofstrasse (talk about expensive shopping....jeeez...oh the stories I could tell...I never felt so poor in my life...little did they know that I walk around picking up cans for scrap metal.....hahaha....but I digress). I can't go into the details of everything with her, but she taught me a great deal about metals, business, and finance. Interestingly, she had previously worked for PAMP, but that's another story....anyway.....
The point is...
What I heard repeatedly, from ALL of them time and time again, was that nickel is passé, undesirable, and is primarily an industrial metal--- for "the little guy." Common, perhaps, but very "uncool." Superficial and elitist, but it might have an effect on nickel's price, I don't know?
Just the way they talk about different metals speaks volumes. For example, when I was in Davos talking to some jewelers after business hours, they'd use different words from when the store was open. When the jewelry was made of platinum or gold, it was "juwelery" but when it was some base-metal nickel alloy, they'd use the older German term---and now a pejorative term "schmucksachen." (What a word!) They were making fun of nickel alloys (among other things.) They knew that in English "schmucksachen" sounds like "schmuck sack."  To the customer, everything was "juwelery." To them, most of it was "schmucksachen." fwiw, I've told this story to other jewelers and they all all thought the Davos guys were weird. Must be the thin air Alpen air and too much fractional reserve banking.
There is indeed plenty of jewelry that uses nickel, and it is easy to find nickel jewelry, but it is almost universally frowned upon by people in the industry. At every jewelry show, in every backroom vault, and at every mention of alloys, poor ol' nickel was considered junk---er, rather, industrial. They need something to dislike, right? At this point in time, it's nickel. Trends come and go. In the world of jewelry, there are slow trends and fast trends. Today's fast trends are colored stones and filigree. In a few years, it'll be something else. (white turquoise I'm hoping! Let's see those Tonopah mines kick into high gear!) Nickel bashing is a slow trend. It will take a while for it to go away. But sure enough, it will. The allergy issue will always hurt its reputation, but it's mostly marketing. And since when do people use rational thought concerning fashion? Tell a customer, er...client, that nickel can cause a breakout, and they panic easily. Make the upsale to palladium or gold. More $$$$. |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
Edited by - fiatboy on 12/22/2007 02:02:00 |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2007 : 23:11:22
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To stay on topic, though---jewelers are in loooOOOOVe with platinum. Mention platinum and they get stars in their eyes. Not only does it mean big profits for them, but they love it themselves.
Palladium is the new "sexy" metal. Rose gold is a favorite. Copper draws mixed feelings.
White gold? That's the stuff for the dumb consumer. We would never buy that for ouselves! hahaha. Same with all the titanium alloys.
Silver, 18k gold, 22k gold, and baht gold is never out of season. Winners every time.
The big joke is rhodium plating. Wanna turn a cheap 10k gold ring into pristine, white gold? Dip it in a big vat of "rhodium juice." Presto! Instant "white" gold! To be fair, there have been times I've used rhodium plating for jewelry, but not under the assumption that I was adding any meaningful amount of rhodium. I just had to get the color to match other jewelry. Jewelers quote the spot price of rhodium to customers, and then ask if they'd like rhodium plating at some discount price. "Doesn't tarnish, and it's 6 bazillion dollars per ounce!" The customer gets charged hundreds of times the price of the microns of actual rhodium. Not a problem if the jeweler is honest. I could go on all day. And don't get me started on diamonds...........
In terms of the future of metals, jewelry isn't what will drive prices in the future. Industry is. India might be an exception, but they're far too enamored with gold to make much of a dent in the Platinum Group of Metals, I think. My girlfriend is on a three-week trip to China right now, and I can't wait till she gets back to hear some inside info about industry, construction, etc. Should be interesting. She's with her mother, a native of China and a defense contractor here in the States, and this lady never stops singing the praises of platinum. Anyone who works at the DoD and obsesses over the stuff---that gets my gears turning.
Alright, story time is over. That's about as much as I'm willing to share.  |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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Platinum Hits Record High on Auto Demand
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