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Beau
Penny Pincher Member
216 Posts |
 Posted - 05/28/2010 : 19:48:54
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everyone here has some kind of metal, and you watch the stock market everyday. you hope it will go up so you can sell for a profit.
what if one morning you get up and see the market is where you think it should be and you sell.
then the TSHTF and you are standing there with paper money, which has been declared no good. then you see people throwing paper money in the streets.
you have sold all your gold and silver, copper and have nothing, no way to get it back. the government has it all, and you where they want you.
this could be the way for the government to get the gold and silver stock piles back, without confiscating it, and not getting everything. they know people will hide it, so if they do it this way they bought it and got it all.
so how many people will hold till the TSHTF?
GOOD LUCK
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 05/28/2010 : 19:58:32
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| Your scenario is a little simplistic. Although some of us may sell few a few ounces a silver and or a few pounds of copper to raise some money, I think just about all of us have core holdings that we will not sell. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/28/2010 : 20:11:27
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| I can see your point Beau. Back in 1980 when silver peaked at $50.00 I was afraid to sell since I was being warned via newsletters that the S was about to hit the fan. I missed that opportunity for the most part, but most people were standing in line waiting to sell... I expect the same would happen again if silver where to hit $100.00 per ounce and there wasn't blood in the streets yet. |
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Think positive. |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 05/28/2010 : 20:20:39
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| My guess is that they already have the majority of gold. The price will rise and they will Tax the sale of bullion harshly on what remains. |
"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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Bluegill
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1964 Posts |
 Posted - 05/29/2010 : 00:12:34
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quote:
Originally posted by cptindy
My guess is that they already have the majority of gold. The price will rise and they will Tax the sale of bullion harshly on what remains.
Yep. Don't be surprised if transfers have to be reported to the IRS like $10k plus cash transactions currently do. Or a form needs to be filled out and sent to the government, not unlike the way the ATF requires a form 4473.
Use your imagination, you can rest assured the government will. 
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Bluegill
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1964 Posts |
Posted - 05/29/2010 : 00:20:38
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quote:
Originally posted by Beau
everyone here has some kind of metal, and you watch the stock market everyday. you hope it will go up so you can sell for a profit.
what if one morning you get up and see the market is where you think it should be and you sell.
then the TSHTF and you are standing there with paper money, which has been declared no good. then you see people throwing paper money in the streets.
you have sold all your gold and silver, copper and have nothing, no way to get it back. the government has it all, and you where they want you.
this could be the way for the government to get the gold and silver stock piles back, without confiscating it, and not getting everything. they know people will hide it, so if they do it this way they bought it and got it all.
so how many people will hold till the TSHTF?
GOOD LUCK
There will always be some type of paper fiat mandated as legal tender as long as the government is in existence.
As Theo mentioned, only sell your PM's when you need to pay a bill or make a purchase, and it has to be done in FRN's. That is the whole idea behind holding real money that preserves it's buying power.
Trying to profit from your PM's is asking for trouble. Unless you really, really know what you are doing.
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 05/29/2010 : 07:55:51
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[/quote]
There will always be some type of paper fiat mandated as legal tender as long as the government is in existence.
[/quote]
i agree there will always be fiat mandated as legal tender. thats what legal tender laws are. they mandate that an inferior form of money must be accepted to settle a debt. a lot of people think its the opposite, like a blue ribbon won in a constest - hey look at this, it was accorded 'legal tender' status, it must be great. no, its crap, thats why they had to pass a law so thinking folks would be forced to accept it anyway.
as for selling, its a good idea to have your eye on the exit before you even buy. only buy stuff you can sell. why buy a 16 troy oz coin - who is going to buy that - unless you get a real good deal.
when i decide to sell is a matter of both price and context. if silver went up to $200 over night, i would start lightening. but if silver went to $200 slowly, and gas was $20 a gallon and my salary didnt increase and the economy had not improved, i would hold tight.
i was left with a lot of overpriced coins in 1980 also. the one thing i would note is that many commentators, guys who are not prone to exaggeration or hyperbole, think that this time gold will go up and stay up. Guys like sinclair, rickards, etc. (guys like Gata and Butler also say this, but they are a bit more prone to hyperbole, not that there is anything wrong with that.) the reason is because the economy and the country is in a lot worse shape this time than in the 70s. so while there will be peaks and troughs, there will not necessarily be a huge decline as there was in 1980 imho.
here are 2 very intresting articles by FOFOA (friend of a friend of Another). he makes the case for a one-time revaluing of gold to as much as $100,000 per ounce. Take these with a grain of salt but frankly i find his writings more persuasive and clear than most other commentators, and I read extensively.
Gold $100,000, or even $500,000:
You must be logged in to see this link.
gold was valued by central banks at $6000 back in 1998:
You must be logged in to see this link.
silver less likely to be a store of value than gold:
You must be logged in to see this link.
P.S. I apologize if i sound like a know-it-all. I'm really the opposite. I'm mostly self-educated and enjoy attempting to synthesize what i have read elsewhere into responses to these threads. This is just my current thinking (largely), and I very well could be wrong. I have high respect for FOFOA, but i don't fully agree with him yet on his lack of optimism for silver. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Edited by - Lemon Thrower on 05/29/2010 07:58:13 |
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metalmoney.ca
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
223 Posts |
Posted - 05/29/2010 : 10:00:28
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lemon, I'm reading the same stuff about gold vs silver as a store of wealth...
I dont own very much physical gold, but I'd like to think I'm hedged with gold stocks, so if gold does leave silver in the dust, then i'll still have my pocket change in silver, and my wealth in gold, providing the "system" makes it through to see I get my purchasing power from my shares.
still, although a lot of whats on FOFOA's blog are dealing with sometimes incomprehensible thoughts, I can't refute any.
the stock vs flow comparison, and the relative abundance of gold that makes it valuable as a wealth consolidator is a compelling argument. |
metal is a claim on future human labour. let's all go get some while the getting is good, eh? |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 05/29/2010 : 12:48:31
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quote:
Originally posted by metalmoney.ca
a lot of whats on FOFOA's blog are dealing with sometimes incomprehensible thoughts, I can't refute any.
well, i can't say i understand everything, but it boils down to the gold held by sovereigns should equal the claims to the sovereigns (paper money and bonds). at some point in the foreseeable future, the expansion of debt is going to have to end because no one will be buying it. its at that point that the market will revalue gold, and a lot of what FOFOA discusses is the theoretical equilibrium point.
quote:
Originally posted by metalmoney.ca
the stock vs flow comparison, and the relative abundance of gold that makes it valuable as a wealth consolidator is a compelling argument.
i'm not sure i'm convinced yet. i have a lot of respect for FOFOA, so i'm going to keep an open mind. but thereis not a lot of flow in gold relative to currencies or even equities. he says that the silver market is tiny, but gold is not much larger. he's contemplating a balancing of accounts at future prices, but he's not allowing for a revaluation of silver. and he ignores that silver has been money for as long as gold, and had been held by govts as such. now, the u.s. demonetized silver and sold off its stock. but that cuts both ways. anti silver it means govts look to silver only after gold. pro silver, it means all that silver on the market coming out of central bank coffers depressed its price beyond recognition.
i don't know what to make of gold v silver. i think the central bank macro actions are going to impact gold first, and indirectly silver. if gold were revalued at 5000 or 500,000, silver would rise but there would be no guarantee that anywhere near the historic ratio would be maintained. otoh, the short squeeze in the comex if and when it comes will benefit silver and have almost no effect on gold. i say if and when because if the conspiratists are correct and JPM is the agent of the plunge protection team, they have a limitless printing press behind them so theoretically they can never lose. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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rexmerdinus
Penny Sorter Member
47 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2010 : 00:45:11
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quote:
...not unlike the way the ATF requires a form 4473.
Use your imagination, you can rest assured the government will.
I'm a small time gun dealer. FWIW, 4473's GENERALLY don't go to the government unless a.) a dealer loses, sells, or gives up his FFL, or b.) the ATF is trying to run a trace on a particular weapon that went through a dealer's hands. That's not to say the ATF doesn't audit them occasionally (I know a dealer who has had one audit in 23+ years), or couldn't decide at any time to demand that every one out there be turned over. GENERALLY, however, the 4473's stay in the individual dealer's custody for 20 years, and then get destroyed. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2010 : 06:40:40
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| Rex, watch the 80's flick Red Dawn. Wolverines! |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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rexmerdinus
Penny Sorter Member
47 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2010 : 07:47:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
Rex, watch the 80's flick Red Dawn. Wolverines!
One of the classics in my collection! I might also mention that I have heard (through third or fourth hand rumors only, mind you!) of dealers who have left standing orders with friends/family/employees, etc. that some or all of their records are to be immediately destroyed in the event of any one of several specific or non-specific comings-to-pass. I hope that was vague enough! |
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drpineapple
New Member
22 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 02:36:39
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| As has been mentioned most people here have core holdings that won't be easily sold even if prices go down. I'm sure some non core holdings would be sold if there was a spike. My suggestion is to sell in halfs. If there is a big spike sell half non core and if there is another big spike after that one sell half of the remaining half which is a quarter of the original and then so on and so on. |
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Sovereigns
New Member
15 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 10:20:29
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| A friend of mine approached me in the pub last week to tell me she had sold some of her old gold jewellery for £400 British Pounds. She was over the moon as she didn't think it was worth anywhere near this amount. I really didn't have the heart to tell her I thought she had made a huge mistake. I truly believe gold still has a long way to run and that silver will be nearer $30 by the end of the year. Holding onto your physical gold be it Gold Eagles, Gold Sovereigns or Maples to me is a no brainer at the moment. I think I would sell my car before I parted with my gold bullion. |
Gold Sovereigns |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 11:26:54
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quote:
Originally posted by drpineapple
As has been mentioned most people here have core holdings that won't be easily sold even if prices go down.
not sure what you mean by easy. easy from the seller's perspective or buyer's perspective.
there will come a time when people are lining up to buy pm's. it will be easy to sell then if you have made the decision to sell.
of course, what are you going to do with that paper money if you do sell? the difficult thing is finding a compelling alternative investment. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Zyll
Penny Pincher Member
USA
214 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 13:00:21
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I think that the 1970's spike was completely different than today's run up.
Listen to the excellent new interview of Felix Zulauf on King World News, starting at about 5:30, for a good explanation why.
This time when there's a Mt. Everest panic, then what? Currency reform. If you try to time the peak and you sell all your gold at $5,000 / oz., you're still going to be broke when it goes to $10,000,000,000 / oz. I say hold it and sell at market price only as much as you need to buy groceries that day.
The German widow said "if I had bought some silver in 1919, my children would not have been malnourished growing up."
To people who only analyze world events through the dual lenses of economics and politics, but without looking through the third lens of scripture, it all does seem confusing. I don't claim to know the future either, but it certainly is noteworthy that events are rapidly converging toward those ancient prophesies.
It is scary to watch, when you extrapolate out to the end game. A quart of wheat will cost a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages. I'm saving my silver and gold for that day, especially since the "official" world currency of RFID tagged e-money (used to buy oil and wine) will be inaccessible to us serfs. |
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Beau
Penny Pincher Member
216 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 19:16:27
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| RFID ? |
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wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 06/03/2010 : 23:05:39
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wolverines....did someone call me?
ANyway, on the topic at hand:
I hope to never HAVE to sell anything close to all of my physical holdings. Some are definitely for if TSHTF.
Even if the price of silver went to $500 an ounce (and you could still buy milk for less than $5 a gal) I wouldn't sell all my metals. And if I did sell, say 95%, I would only do it if I could use it to purchase another tangible item: a gun, land/property, food supplies, raw materials, etc. |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
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SteelCityCopper
New Member
14 Posts |
Posted - 06/04/2010 : 15:00:48
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| Let's be brutally honest with ourselves as well. I think it all comes down to timing of when our PM assets will be wanted should we experience an episode of TSHTF. Bare essentials like food, water, guns, and bullets will be very valuable and highly sought after immediately following. A worthwhile investment for that specific timeframe? Probably. |
Jason
www.steelcitycopper.com |
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 06/04/2010 : 17:47:39
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| If there's ever a day when I can buy a nice air plane, like a classic warbird with an ounce or three of gold, I'll happily sell, even though I would not technically "need" to. You only live once. |
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 06/04/2010 : 20:18:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
quote:
Originally posted by drpineapple
As has been mentioned most people here have core holdings that won't be easily sold even if prices go down.
not sure what you mean by easy. easy from the seller's perspective or buyer's perspective.
there will come a time when people are lining up to buy pm's. it will be easy to sell then if you have made the decision to sell.
of course, what are you going to do with that paper money if you do sell? the difficult thing is finding a compelling alternative investment.
I think his point (and mine) is that PMs are in "stronger hands", as Ted Butler likes to say. I've noticed that the amount of silver and gold coins available on Ebay has decreased over the past 3 or 4 months.
To answer your second question; a prudent investor won't sell unless they; a. have to meet basic needs or, b. have found another asset which they believe is undervalued. |
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sell your metals?
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