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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
 Posted - 03/23/2010 : 11:41:01
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Bull market in stocks continues to run. Remember when few folks believed me when the very bullish 13/34 week technical crossover confirmation occurred last August at SPX 903. SPX 1200 is not that far off now. 
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---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 03/23/2010 11:48:18 |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 12:20:36
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EVERYTHING THAT FOLLOWS IS COMPLETE OPINION AND SPECULATION
Personally,
Looking at the market trends I am seeing an emotional bliss. Investment based on fundamentals of a sound "feeling" of the market. Most investors are speculators at best.
The markets move based on large flows of capital not your average "John Q Public".
Large amounts of "capital" have been and are waiting and wishing to jump back in the game.
(It is difficult for one to own a thoroughbred and not let him run, sooner or later she will bust out)
Certain areas I believe are not properly managed and have underlying problems. Although this seems to be true, if the fed manages to keep those issues under control ("contained") the market is set to leap into unprecedented territory. I use leap because it will be a jumpy game. Surging and falling and surging and falling.
If the DOW ends up maintaining 10,700 and shooting past we in my opinion are looking at the most impressive rise ever. Based on many many questionable reasons that for the most part are "emotional behavior".
I think of all the pension funds that are yearning for a return to their once hefty balance sheets yet are stuck in the black hole of the last mis-read. When these Goliath monsters decide to "invest"
"watch them ol' boys run"
energy
transportation
commodities
oil
mining (proven)
technology (efficiency sectors)
Global Trade
To me gold has found its window for now
Silver is not even close to Gold, it is a completely different metal with industrial application and will be finding itself un-related to gold. It is very unique!
Magnesium, Copper, Steel as well as the other primary metal sectors will do well
It is all dependent on the emotional satisfaction of underlying balance sheets and accounting practice.
(This is complete speculation and is not intended as investment advice)
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"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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silverhalide
Penny Sorter Member
92 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 15:52:57
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| I think prices are currently being manipulated higher and the action is strictly technical. The money supply has been shrinking since July '09 and stock mutual fund cash balances are at all time lows. |
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member
USA
129 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 22:02:52
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| I am riding this bull and have been for a while, at least for some short-term money I have invested for my child. I rode it down and stayed the course. Looks like my patience has paid off as I am now back "above water" and actually making a decent return overall now. I expect to ride it into late Spring or early summer. It is definitely paying better returns now than CD's or savings accounts or money markets. To each his or her own, though, of course. |
Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester |
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member
USA
129 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2010 : 21:51:33
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The Bull run-up in the stock market continues! On 3/23 I posted my previous comment, and the S&P was at 1174. Now on 4/15 it is at 1212 (rounded). That's a 3% gain in 3 weeks! 4% per month over a 30 day period. That is about 48% per year if it continues going forward.
Since one year ago it has risen about 40%, dividends not included, so it has some history behind it.
If there's one thing I've learned - bubble or not - don't stand in the way of any bull market! Run with the bull as far as he'll take you! I have a set target in mind for my stock market money. Once I achieve that I'll take my money off the table and wait for the next downturn.
Best of luck to you all! |
Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester |
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oober
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1304 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2010 : 22:47:12
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| Been very happy with this run. My BOA and C have been kicking arse for awhile. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2010 : 22:47:56
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| Market run is nearly done. No need to sell in May, can do it today and go away. Dec 31 will be lower than 11,144.57. However, over time, even Jim Rogers says the Dow can go to 1.000.000 and still not be at an inflation adjusted all time high. Fed and plunge protection team are not buying now. Baby boomers can't sustain the market. Most are nearing retirement and already experienced two recent nightmares- 2000 tech wreck and current fiasco. They are in fixed income markets now thinking about safety of principal and income, which is also a disaster on the horizon when bond prices tank. It's bad enough that the average baby boomer only has $50k for retirement. Jobs are still a mess. One third of the GDP is consumption driven. Home equity lines to write checks for the 60" plasma imported from China has gone away. Jobs drive housing. Foreclosures are already on pace to outdo last year. Inventories have been written down and layoffs have been huge. This is where "earnings" have come from, not to mention accounting rule changes after the GAAP were compromised to create artificial gains. We are still in the eye of the storm. The eye tends to look like a new dawn. The backside of the storm does the most damage. This will be no different. The Fed has assumed $trillions of bank and real estate losses in order to pump life into the artificial happy go lucky punch bowl. Does that make the problem go away? It makes it worse....much worse. Enjoy the eye of the storm. Get your affairs in order. Prep for the worst. This is what the fed has offered and many insiders are taking heed. Prepare now or suffer later. Cheers! |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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copperhead57
Penny Collector Member
USA
255 Posts |
Posted - 04/15/2010 : 22:48:43
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| The stock market is too risky for the small investor. I'll stick with hard assets like SILVER, COPPER, and NICKEL. |
copperhead57 |
Edited by - copperhead57 on 04/15/2010 22:50:38 |
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member
USA
129 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2010 : 06:43:02
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OK, I admit it - I caused the stock market to tumble yesterday, 4/16.  It went down about 1.6% on the S&P 500. HOWEVER, Silver dropped over 4% yesterday as well. It dropped 2.5 times more than the stock market. So much for the stock market being too risky compared to hard assets. At least, for now, this round goes to equities. |
Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2010 : 07:45:35
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Market run is nearly done. No need to sell in May, can do it today and go away. Dec 31 will be lower than 11,144.57. However, over time, even Jim Rogers says the Dow can go to 1.000.000 and still not be at an inflation adjusted all time high. Fed and plunge protection team are not buying now. Baby boomers can't sustain the market. Most are nearing retirement and already experienced two recent nightmares- 2000 tech wreck and current fiasco. They are in fixed income markets now thinking about safety of principal and income, which is also a disaster on the horizon when bond prices tank. It's bad enough that the average baby boomer only has $50k for retirement. Jobs are still a mess. One third of the GDP is consumption driven. Home equity lines to write checks for the 60" plasma imported from China has gone away. Jobs drive housing. Foreclosures are already on pace to outdo last year. Inventories have been written down and layoffs have been huge. This is where "earnings" have come from, not to mention accounting rule changes after the GAAP were compromised to create artificial gains. We are still in the eye of the storm. The eye tends to look like a new dawn. The backside of the storm does the most damage. This will be no different. The Fed has assumed $trillions of bank and real estate losses in order to pump life into the artificial happy go lucky punch bowl. Does that make the problem go away? It makes it worse....much worse. Enjoy the eye of the storm. Get your affairs in order. Prep for the worst. This is what the fed has offered and many insiders are taking heed. Prepare now or suffer later. Cheers!
Lot of gloom and doom to ponder here. There's no need to time this BULL market in stocks. The FED may be testing the waters and seeing if they can back away, but the financial debacle of 2008 is not likely to repeat for quite some time. If events show a need for the FED to pour fiat over the problems encountered again, THEY WILL DO SO FAST, with the customary blessing of our government run by people only concerned about getting re-elected. Once the short term gloom and fear of Goldman beginning another depression passes, the GREED will return as fiat pours into the stock markets of the world. BULL market rules - BUY the dips. Sharp short term corrections are the rule, with long grind ups on low volume as the BULL grinds higher and higher. Now, BULL markets do end and when they do the rules change. However, a one day correction event does not signify the end of the BULL market.
I am saddened that PMs are so interlinked with the stock market's swoons. In times past, when the stock market was weak, GOLD and SILVER were strong. Nowadays, when Wall Street wants to SELL, they SELL everything and go to CASH. I guess for most investors and speculators, PMs are NOT YET looked upon as an essential store of value. However, philosophies do change over time and I think we are nearing a transition whereby many on Wall Street will see GOLD, OIL, and other commodities as the place to go WITH THEIR CASH instead of TO CASH fiat currencies in times of crisis. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2010 : 19:58:46
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| Country- Where did the financial debacle of 2008 (which was the most sever since the gret depression) and all of the trillions of fiat disappear to? Snap the fingers and all the mess has been cleared out? There is no gloom and doom with debasing an economy, just reality. The Fed made many whole again to the tune of $trillions buy assuming the toxic mess and offering to pay with newly created paper...i.e. one party assumes the mess of another. The only problem is that the party that assumed (and is still assuming) the mess is doing so at a cost to EVERYONE who owns FRN's. It might be delayed, but once the juggling stops the pain will be felt. I am a believer that Jim Rogers got it right. The DJIA will likely go to 1,000,000! That is a BULL market! The only concern is that 1,000,000 USD won't even buy an imported Chinese car at that time. No question whatsoever that hyperinflation is coming. That is not gloom doom or boom. It is simply going to be the greatest wealth transfer ever known to man. What a fantastic opportunity! |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member
USA
129 Posts |
Posted - 04/29/2010 : 04:57:04
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Once again, I caused a market drop! I phoned in my order to take money off the table early Tuesday morning. Wouldn't you know it the Greek and Portuguese downgrade came on the same day! The S&P 500 lost 2.34% that day.  Oh well! I simply took "some" money off the top, not all. And I still made $ overall - over 33%. But still, it stung a bit. However, not as bad as just over a year ago when I was underwater for money I invested! At some point you have to cash out and in doing so you may leave some money on the table. Better that way than losing your investment! The key is time, and diversification. Good hunting all! |
Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 04/29/2010 : 05:26:13
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| Low interest rates is the fuel for this market. How much longer can that last? |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 04/29/2010 : 06:26:20
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| Money can be made in speculation if you are lucky...very lucky and know when to pull out. Like you said, what essentials have changed that makes stocks so attractive now? It can't be earnings, can it? Speculation is the name of this game. My goodness, the same crooks are still at the helm on Wall Street. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/06/2010 : 17:47:39
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| All hell is breaking lose now. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 05/06/2010 : 22:14:57
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| Unfortunately the turmoil is nothing unexpected. Some say I post gloom and doom. I post reality and pray for the best. Be prepared. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2010 : 07:27:16
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If you believe in the long-term bull market prediction that the precious metals (bullion and mining equities) are destined to shine someday, then it might be prudent to take some profits (if you have any) off the table during rallies and then attempt to buy back more shares amidsts dips plunges  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2010 : 07:47:26
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If you are investing LONG-TERM (your time horizon is multiple years), one needs to focus on long term trends. Daily fluctuations are noise and will be quickly forgotton. LONG-TERM trends do change from time to time, from BULLISH to BEARISH, again and again. At this time, the LONG-TERM trend for the US stock market has been BULLISH. IMO, it was confirmed in August 2009, when the S&P multi-week 13/34 moving averages crossed at 903.
How you manage your portfolio, stocks or PMs, in a BULL market, depends on your risk tolerance, CASH needs, and other personal factors. Certainly, trimming some profits to BUY better investments, is prudent. However, once you have your DIVERSIFIED portfolio apportioned in a manner that works for you, SPECULATING away the profits is not prudent either.
So, the bottom line is have a plan, stick to it, and don't be swayed away by the talking heads, panicked investors, and foolish financial advisors. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2010 : 19:07:28
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| I remember when the Dow hit 10,000. I was in Phoenix on a due diligence meeting with a fund manager where I had placed some large funds for a client. That was on March 29, 1999 and here we are right back near that level. On an inflation adjusted basis we are far below that point some nearly eleven long years later. Buy and hold (pray) is what the market preys on. Baby boomers have made little or no progress towards retirement for over a decade and now they are to begin liquidating in droves over the next several years either by choice or force. Since most people do not come close to index returns, I can only imagine the sad carnage of those who tried their hand at becoming a stock jockey. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 05/07/2010 : 21:21:55
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Can't imagine that the volatility over the years after the asian contagion, LTCM, tech wreck, 9/11, economic meltdown of 2008, and now sovereign credibility offered much to the retirement plans of the typical do it yourself type of trader, let alone any indexed portfolio. We all know how people reacted to the extreme volatility and it was not the "stay the course", "buy, hold and pray" ideology, otherwise the market would not have done what it did. Massive liquidations with big losses and now many have been/are throwing in the towel, trying to preserve what remains after devestating losses and are piling into the next gargantuan bubble- fixed income.
Baby boomers are in deep doo doo. They are/were supposed to retire now after their "investments" were to grow an arbitrary 12% or so as teased by financial planners but it looks like we have a lost decade (before inflation) at best and most are much worse off. Imagine those who are now planning on (broke) pension funds to send checks flowing from the fountain of good life into their mailbox. More bailouts coming from the tree that grows money. Hard to imagine that the gov't has been pumping $trillions to buoy the markets and this is all the market has shown thus far. Such reckless abandon should have sent the DJIA screaming past 20,000. Sometimes a (non-inflation adjusted) picture can say a thousand words-
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The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
Edited by - jonflyfish on 05/07/2010 21:34:26 |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2010 : 14:06:11
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Sad but true-
"...You've read it 100 times: "Past performance is not an indication of future returns." But no one appears to believe it. Purveyors of investment data can trot out tons of statistics showing that when a mutual fund or asset class (such as gold, emerging markets stocks, or junk bonds) gets singled out for great quarterly or annual returns, investors start to pour money into that investment like it was going out of style.
And, of course, it is. One extensive study that looked at 19 years of market data found that investors consistently poured money into "hot" investments just as they were about to turn cold. That left the average investor with returns that fell way below the market as a whole and didn't even keep up with inflation."
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silverhalide
Penny Sorter Member
92 Posts |
Posted - 05/11/2010 : 15:37:18
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| I haven't been buying many stocks YTD ( mainly precious metal stocks were my buys) and have been a net seller of stocks where my cash position now stands at 50%. In my late March post I had a bearish tone given the fed and banks continue to shrink balance sheets and mutual funds were carrying very low cash balances. When the cash disappears in most cases it is usually a good time to become contrarian. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
693 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2010 : 00:33:55
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Market run is nearly done. No need to sell in May, can do it today and go away. Dec 31 will be lower than 11,144.57. However, over time, even Jim Rogers says the Dow can go to 1.000.000 and still not be at an inflation adjusted all time high. Fed and plunge protection team are not buying now. Baby boomers can't sustain the market. Most are nearing retirement and already experienced two recent nightmares- 2000 tech wreck and current fiasco. They are in fixed income markets now thinking about safety of principal and income, which is also a disaster on the horizon when bond prices tank. It's bad enough that the average baby boomer only has $50k for retirement. Jobs are still a mess. One third of the GDP is consumption driven. Home equity lines to write checks for the 60" plasma imported from China has gone away. Jobs drive housing. Foreclosures are already on pace to outdo last year. Inventories have been written down and layoffs have been huge. This is where "earnings" have come from, not to mention accounting rule changes after the GAAP were compromised to create artificial gains. We are still in the eye of the storm. The eye tends to look like a new dawn. The backside of the storm does the most damage. This will be no different. The Fed has assumed $trillions of bank and real estate losses in order to pump life into the artificial happy go lucky punch bowl. Does that make the problem go away? It makes it worse....much worse. Enjoy the eye of the storm. Get your affairs in order. Prep for the worst. This is what the fed has offered and many insiders are taking heed. Prepare now or suffer later. Cheers!
Interesting... |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2010 : 07:17:19
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Marc Faber Says Stock Market Could Fall by a Further 15%
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Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom reports, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt about the outlook for U.S. stocks.
Faber says global stocks are in a "correction period" and believes the Standard & Poor's 500 Index could decline another 10-15 percent. He also discusses the violence in Thailand. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 06/28/2010 : 09:20:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
If you are investing LONG-TERM (your time horizon is multiple years), one needs to focus on long term trends. Daily fluctuations are noise and will be quickly forgotton. LONG-TERM trends do change from time to time, from BULLISH to BEARISH, again and again. At this time, the LONG-TERM trend for the US stock market has been BULLISH. IMO, it was confirmed in August 2009, when the S&P multi-week 13/34 moving averages crossed at 903.
How you manage your portfolio, stocks or PMs, in a BULL market, depends on your risk tolerance, CASH needs, and other personal factors. Certainly, trimming some profits to BUY better investments, is prudent. However, once you have your DIVERSIFIED portfolio apportioned in a manner that works for you, SPECULATING away the profits is not prudent either.
So, the bottom line is have a plan, stick to it, and don't be swayed away by the talking heads, panicked investors, and foolish financial advisors.
Bull markets do end. As the US stock market is deteriorating at this time, a negative cross-over could occur soon, perhaps this week. Bull markets can occur within a secular bear market. Hats-off to jonflyfish who appears to have got out at the top of this bull market run. 
You must be logged in to see this link. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 06/28/2010 09:23:09 |
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Topic |
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Stocks Moving Higher: Fundamentals Or Technicals?
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