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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
 Posted - 03/05/2010 : 13:15:45
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I've been a member here for over three years. I've been able to observe some things, and I have prickly questions.
1) "20?? will be the last year for the cent and/or nickel." OR "20?? would be the perfect year to retire the cent and/or nickel." Why hasn't this become true?
2) "20?? will be the last year of the US dollar." Why hasn't this become true?
3) "Fiat currencies always collapse, their value diminishing to zero." If this is true, then why is every government on the entire planet using a fiat currency? When will the great 20th century folly of fiat currency be written off as an experiment, and why hasn't that happened yet?
4) "The SHTF will happen any day now... or next month... or next year." What is indefinitely keeping the excrement from hitting the air conditioning?
5) I think the Austrian economists are closer to the truth than anyone else on the true nature of fiscal policy, yet their ideas are only seldom implemented. Why isn't the Austrian school the dominant school? What are the Austrians overlooking that sustains decade by decade a financial status quo that they define as unstable?
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 14:48:16
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| Patience, grasshopper, patience. Don't look at your month-by-month calendar. Look at history instead. Look up Weimar Germany. Look up Zimbabwe. Look up post-WW2 inflation in Hungary. People here in the U.S. have been deceiving themselves into thinking that because it hasn't happened here yet, it never will. That's a fatal fallacy. We're heading for a worldwide economic storm once the paper-money scheme behind the U.S. dollar collapses. Our lenders are about to cut us off and soon people will refuse to take dollars because of its rapidly decreasing value. I have a $100 trillion bill from Zimbabwe, but I probably couldn't buy a loaf of bread there with it. Read Adam Fergusson's book "When Money Dies" about Weimar Germany. You can download a PDF of it at You must be logged in to see this link. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
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---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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AGCoinHunter
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
685 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 15:26:16
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| Nickelles, your link to the PDF doesnt seem to work... |
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."
-Thomas Jefferson
"There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism—by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." - Ayn Rand
________________________________________________
Lenin: Class-based International Socialism
Hitler: Race-based National Socialism
Obama: Class- and Race-based Post-National Socialism
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Edited by - AGCoinHunter on 03/05/2010 15:26:45 |
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 15:37:21
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1) The mining lobby is strong and the savings wouldn't be that much compared to what our government wastes every year on much more ridiculous things. Also, Harry Reid, the majority leader in the Senate, is from the largest copper-producing state. That is your answer.
2)The dollar has decreased 97% since its beginning, so it really is just a matter of time.
3)Pure fiat has only been around since 1971, and the myth of a gold-backed currency lingered for many years. Worldwide fiat is unprecedented, so its hard to predict what will happen. All we know is that all previous fiat currencies have eventually failed, whereas gold and silver have never "failed" because they can't - they are tangible goods.
4)Not all Austrians or bullion hoarders think that a literal SHTF societal breakdown is coming. I do not buy the notion that all hell will break loose just because the dollar dies or whatever. Civil unrest and depression maybe, but not "mad max".
5)Short answer is that Austrians are unpopular because they don't tell politicians what they want to hear. Politicians want to spend money, and Keynesians tell them thats a good thing. Short answer part 2 is that academia is controlled by the left, so Austrian economics is not taught to future leaders and economists in training. 50 years ago, no one had even heard of Austrian economics outside of Doctorate-level academics, but now it is filtered so far down that we are discussing it on a coin forum, so give it time! |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
Edited by - AGgressive Metal on 03/05/2010 15:41:26 |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 18:41:22
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quote:
Originally posted by AGgressive Metal
1) The mining lobby is strong and the savings wouldn't be that much compared to what our government wastes every year on much more ridiculous things. Also, Harry Reid, the majority leader in the Senate, is from the largest copper-producing state. That is your answer.
2)The dollar has decreased 97% since its beginning, so it really is just a matter of time.
3)Pure fiat has only been around since 1971, and the myth of a gold-backed currency lingered for many years. Worldwide fiat is unprecedented, so its hard to predict what will happen. All we know is that all previous fiat currencies have eventually failed, whereas gold and silver have never "failed" because they can't - they are tangible goods.
4)Not all Austrians or bullion hoarders think that a literal SHTF societal breakdown is coming. I do not buy the notion that all hell will break loose just because the dollar dies or whatever. Civil unrest and depression maybe, but not "mad max".
5)Short answer is that Austrians are unpopular because they don't tell politicians what they want to hear. Politicians want to spend money, and Keynesians tell them thats a good thing. Short answer part 2 is that academia is controlled by the left, so Austrian economics is not taught to future leaders and economists in training. 50 years ago, no one had even heard of Austrian economics outside of Doctorate-level academics, but now it is filtered so far down that we are discussing it on a coin forum, so give it time!
What AGM said.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 19:52:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Cerulean
I've been a member here for over three years. I've been able to observe some things, and I have prickly questions.
1) "20?? will be the last year for the cent and/or nickel." OR "20?? would be the perfect year to retire the cent and/or nickel." Why hasn't this become true?
2) "20?? will be the last year of the US dollar." Why hasn't this become true?
3) "Fiat currencies always collapse, their value diminishing to zero." If this is true, then why is every government on the entire planet using a fiat currency? When will the great 20th century folly of fiat currency be written off as an experiment, and why hasn't that happened yet?
4) "The SHTF will happen any day now... or next month... or next year." What is indefinitely keeping the excrement from hitting the air conditioning?
5) I think the Austrian economists are closer to the truth than anyone else on the true nature of fiscal policy, yet their ideas are only seldom implemented. Why isn't the Austrian school the dominant school? What are the Austrians overlooking that sustains decade by decade a financial status quo that they define as unstable?
We can guess when the nickel or Penny will be taken out of production. My understanding is that the nickel isn't being minted this year. I doubt they will demonetize them now. The last thing they need is to get people saying that the goverment can't even afford to mint pennies anymore. That does nothing for consumer confidence.
Those who continue to predict that the dollar will tank all at once are kidding themselves im my opinion. IMO, we will continue to see a gradual, but faster than in recent history, decline of the dollar along with our standard of living. There is also the possibility that precious metals will rise faster than the dollar will decline putting them in a short term bubble.
Fiat money will survive as long as people have confidence in it. Being forced by law to accept it helps keep the Ponzi going. What you will see though is that long term savings will continue to decline. People will buy something, anything, rather than save paper dollars that can't hold their value. That is why we are in the mess we find ourselves in.
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Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 13:45:48
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quote:
Originally posted by NickellessOur lenders are about to cut us off and soon people will....
This is exactly the kind of language I've been reading for several years that prompted this thread. |
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Are you a Buffalo Hunter?
Wanna take seignorage away from the Fed? Spend *any* coins!
We cannot afford this government.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 19:04:32
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I'm not speaking for Cerulean, but what I think bugs a lot of people is when predictions of the end being near, often with specific dates as to when they will occur, and they never come to pass. Instead they are just forgotten and new ones continue to take their place.
I have been reading such predictions for over 30 years now. Back in the late 70s Howard Ruff and those like him sold their books and silver based on their predictions of economic doom. Times did get rough back during the Jimmy Carter days and precious metals reached record highs because, in part, of the fear of the times. With the election of Ronald Regan precious metals prices took a very long deep sleep. The economic collapse did come but not the way they predicted. Instead it was a slow insidious decline of America and her dollar over many decades.
One could argue that things are different today and they would be correct. They are much worse in a lot of ways. But those who continue to make short term predictions that don't come true do a lot of harm. Instead of making preparations for the long term many people often get discouraged when short term predictions fail and give up altogether. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 19:22:20
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Jamie, you're able to see things long-term because you've been around for a long term. Having said that, you've seen how the PM market and economy in general have reacted during that period. If people like Realcent Penny Forum groupies can get others to thinking about the much longer-term picture and where we're heading, even if it takes much longer than we think, then hopefully fewer people will get totally screwed when our fiat system eventually collapses. In the meantime, we can take comfort in the fact that the value of our metals will always be worth more than the inherent value of paper. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
Edited by - Nickelless on 03/08/2010 19:35:27 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 19:43:11
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
Jamie, you're able to see things long-term because you've been around for a long term. Having said that, you've seen how the PM market and economy in general have reacted during that period. If people like Realcent Penny Forum Penny Forum Penny Forum Penny Forumers can get others to thinking about the much longer-term picture and where we're heading, even if it takes much longer than we think, then hopefully fewer people will get totally screwed when our fiat system eventually collapses. In the meantime, we can take comfort in the fact that the value of our metals will always be worth more than the inherent value of paper.
Back in the 70s I was hunkered in with my 90% silver waiting for the shoe to drop too. But you can't live on red alert for 30+ years and keep even half of your sanity. I like to think I have at least 50% of it left.  If anyone should be walking away from all of this it should be me. But I know better. I know that sensationalism makes for good reading. It is also used to market goods and services. It even changes the political landscape. But I know that even sensationalism contains a certain amount of truth.
I'm not convinced that fiat money will fail. It may change drastically from what we have today and be partially backed by some types of commodites. Even if it doesn't fail I can assure you that being invested into hard commodites now will put you ahead of the game. |
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All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 19:43:31
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"The coming currency collapse" from 1988, that's where I first heard the notion.
No-one in the world can afford things to go kerplunk overnight for the dollar.
Tooooooo many people putting a timeline on it. Can't be done.
Things like this don't happen when everybody is looking. They have to creep in the back door,
or happen so slowly, it's hardly noticeable.
But whether people see it or not, the sun will set. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 19:52:29
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quote:
Originally posted by fb101
"The coming currency collapse" from 1988, that's where I first heard the notion.
No-one in the world can afford things to go kerplunk overnight for the dollar.
Tooooooo many people putting a timeline on it. Can't be done.
Things like this don't happen when everybody is looking. They have to creep in the back door,
or happen so slowly, it's hardly noticeable.
But whether people see it or not, the sun will set.
It's the back door that you have to keep the closest watch on.
But let's say somehow by the grace of God the S doesn't' hit the fan. So you are invested into copper and silver. Don't you think that just maybe there might be a huge demand for such industrial commodities in the future? I for one would much rather be selling my metals for a huge profit than trading it for the last fishhook in the Florida Keys. |
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All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 20:01:43
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I just listened to an interview with Jim Sinclair, the famous trader that the government called in to liquidate Bunker Hunt's fortune in the early 80s. He said that Bunker wasn't trying to corner the silver market out of pure greed, but that the Hunt Brothers truly believed that the paper money system was on the brink of failure. Right there at the peak Swiss banks were, for a short time, paying NEGATIVE interest to Americans who wanted to hold Swiss Francs instead of dollars and there was still a line around the block.
What saved the system was that long-term rates went up into the teens. Volker came in and restored confidence with super-high interest rates. Do we have the will to do that again? It is yet to be seen, but the enormity of the debt means that high interest rates will be very difficult for the government to service, whereas back in the early 80s we were still a creditor nation overall. History is repeating as it always does, but it won't be an exact re-run, that is for sure. |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
Edited by - AGgressive Metal on 03/08/2010 20:05:10 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 20:11:20
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quote:
Originally posted by AGgressive Metal
I just listened to an interview with Jim Sinclair, the famous trader that the government called in to liquidate Bunker Hunt's fortune in the early 80s. He said that Bunker wasn't trying to corner the silver market out of pure greed, but that the Hunt Brothers truly believed that the paper money system was on the brink of failure. Right there at the peak Swiss banks were, for a short time, paying NEGATIVE interest to Americans who wanted to hold Swiss Francs instead of dollars and there was still a line around the block.
Things were hairy back then and I don't mean all the hippies! And remember that was when you could get double digit interest on your CDs back home. I believe that the possibility of stagflation again is a real concern. But that doesn't mean we absolutely can't pull back out of it. Take advantage of the times you live in but remember that times change. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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redneck
1000+ Penny Miser Member
1273 Posts |
Posted - 03/08/2010 : 20:21:56
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Having and holding PM's should be thought of like having a insurance policy.
You pay for it.
Hopefully, you will never need it.
But if you do........
You'll be thankful that you did.
Where else can you buy a insurance policy then sell it (hopefully) for as much or more than you purchased it for?
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 03/09/2010 : 12:59:24
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| Fiat currency survived 1970s stagflation, the recessions of 1991 and 2003, and is still around. Every nation uses fiat now. No one has thrown in the towel on fiat. No one has adopted a currency backed by anything. We're all still using fiat, the entire planet, after almost 40 years. Something is keeping fiat currency alive even though fiscal theory says it is dying. Is fiat currency really and truly doomed? |
Sorting Map
2010 First Finds Contest
Are you a Buffalo Hunter?
Wanna take seignorage away from the Fed? Spend *any* coins!
We cannot afford this government.
Cerulean's Standing Offer: $3/lb shipped for foreign coins |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/09/2010 : 13:16:06
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quote:
Originally posted by Cerulean
Fiat currency survived 1970s stagflation, the recessions of 1991 and 2003, and is still around. Every nation uses fiat now. No one has thrown in the towel on fiat. No one has adopted a currency backed by anything. We're all still using fiat, the entire planet, after almost 40 years. Something is keeping fiat currency alive even though fiscal theory says it is dying. Is fiat currency really and truly doomed?
40 years is a drop in the historical bucket. Look at history. All fiat currencies in history have eventually died. Look at the track record. Just because the dollar, pound, euro and yuan haven't died yet doesn't mean they won't. 100 percent of fiat currencies in the past have died. I think it's safe to say that the rest of them will follow suit. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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AGgressive Metal
Administrator
USA
1937 Posts |
Posted - 03/09/2010 : 14:06:49
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| All paper currencies come and go in the past, but they didn't have computer models, secret currency swaps, propaganda financial news, an integrated banking system, etc. It will take a lot to break down the current system. |
And he that hath lyberte ought to kepe hit wel / For nothyng is better than lyberte / For lyberte shold not be wel sold for alle the gold and syluer of all the world.
-Caxton's edition of Aesop's Fables, 1484 |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/09/2010 : 17:17:26
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quote:
Originally posted by AGgressive Metal
All paper currencies come and go in the past, but they didn't have computer models, secret currency swaps, propaganda financial news, an integrated banking system, etc. It will take a lot to break down the current system.
But they also didn't have tools such as the Internet to help the masses spread information about what's REALLY going on behind the scenes. Still, when the breaking point comes, it's going to be the biggest fireworks show in history. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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Prickly questions
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