| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
cwgii
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
924 Posts |
 Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:04:12
|
i will admit that 'odds' are not my strong point.
when i first started sorting, i was 'excited' to find my first roll with a wheat showing on the end.
after a year. i am getting close to 50 rolls.
my question is this. what are the odds of finding a wheat showing.
based on last years stats. i find 29.95 wheats per $100.00
|
|
|
slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:18:50
|
| so you find 29.95 wheats for every 10,000 pennies or .02995% are wheat |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
|
 |
|
|
cwgii
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
924 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:29:00
|
| lol, that much i understand, the question is,,,,, what are the odds that there is a wheat showing on the end of a roll. |
|
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:48:37
|
I think this give's the answer.
Wheats per roll X odd of a wheat being on the end
So 30/10000=ratio of wheats per total cents divide by cents per roll(50) multiply by odds of a wheat being on the end 2/50
30/10000 X 50/1 X 2/50=3 per 500 rolls. Someone check my math
Edit with 30 wheats per 10000 cents 3 in 500 rolls will have a wheat cent on the end you would have to half that again to have the wheat ears showing. |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
Edited by - thogey on 02/28/2010 12:54:14 |
|
|
|
styropyro
Penny Sorter Member
USA
54 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:54:55
|
| So you find about .3% wheats, or about 1 wheat per 333 pennies. Multiply by 2 for two ends of rolls and you get 167. So one roll out of 167 rolls will have a wheat showing on an end, or about .6%. |
|
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 12:57:24
|
quote:
Originally posted by styropyro
So you find about .3% wheats, or about 1 wheat per 333 pennies. Multiply by 2 for two ends of rolls and you get 167. So one roll out of 167 rolls will have a wheat showing on an end, or about .6%.
Hey I think we came up with the same answer. 3/500=1/166.6666...1/167
cool |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
Edited by - thogey on 02/28/2010 12:59:26 |
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:11:56
|
based on your stats... 30 in $100 equals 30 in 200 rolls. Since you would not know it's a wheatie unless you spotted the ears, make it half that, equalling 30 in 400 rolls equals 0.075% chance of spotting one  For every 13.33 rolls you check, with the stats you provided, you would expect to see one wheatie. If you open the box with the ends facing you, you would expect to see one wheatie for every 26.66 rolls (the other end of the roll not visible)... so if you open a box you should see close to two wheaties each time, with another two visible from the other side... strictly by odds |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
Edited by - beauanderos on 02/28/2010 13:19:38 |
|
|
|
Shattered
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
523 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:14:03
|
| I've had wheaties on the end. I knew they were because I saw the year. |
"I need metal in my life, just like an eagle needs to fly."
-Joseph DeMaio : Die For Metal |
|
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:16:18
|
quote:
Originally posted by beauanderos
based on your stats... 30 in $100 equals 30 in 200 rolls. Since you would not know it's a wheatie unless you spotted the ears, make it half that, equalling 30 in 400 rolls equals 0.075% chance of spotting one
Ahhh, but you can tell if it's a wheat without seeing the reverse.
As long a you can see the date.
Now let's determine the odds of finding and Indian on the end.
Let's start with the premise that it is possible to find. Oh say
9 indians per box |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:22:40
|
quote:
Originally posted by beauanderos
based on your stats... 30 in $100 equals 30 in 200 rolls. Since you would not know it's a wheatie unless you spotted the ears, make it half that, equalling 30 in 400 rolls equals 0.075% chance of spotting one For every 13.33 rolls you check, with the stats you provided, you would expect to see one wheatie. If you open the box with the ends facing you, you would expect to see one wheatie for every 26.66 rolls (the other side not visible)... so if you open a box you should see close to two wheaties each time, with another two visible from the other side... strictly by odds
I think your odds are wrong because you forgot to factor that there is only a 1 in 25 chance of a given cent being on either end.
You have to multiply the demoniator by 25 |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:24:16
|
quote:
Originally posted by thogey
quote:
Originally posted by beauanderos
based on your stats... 30 in $100 equals 30 in 200 rolls. Since you would not know it's a wheatie unless you spotted the ears, make it half that, equalling 30 in 400 rolls equals 0.075% chance of spotting one
Ahhh, but you can tell if it's a wheat without seeing the reverse.
As long a you can see the date.
Now let's determine the odds of finding and Indian on the end.Let's start with the premise that it is possible to find. Oh say
9 indians per box
the odds are... no more findings like this will ever be reported in the history of mankind  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
dakota1955
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2212 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:25:31
|
| to much math my brain hurts. |
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:31:21
|
quote:
Originally posted by thogey
I think your odds are wrong because you forgot to factor that there is only a 1 in 25 chance of a given cent being on either end.
You have to multiply the demoniator by 25
Eric, you're right... I was in a hurry. So actual odds would be 1/25 (0.4) times 0.0075 = 0.003 percent (thanks, I wasn't very good in math)  for visible ears, 0.006 if you want to use a magnifying glass to see the date!
|
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:39:09
|
There we go, an answer for cwgii.
cwgii,
The odds of finding a wheat cent showing on the end of a roll: given 30 wheat cents per $100
is
.6% or 1/167 |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 13:53:36
|
quote:
Originally posted by thogey
.6% or 1/167
Assuming this is a correct answer, then my previous estimate is way off... and you would only spot wheatie ears upon opening a box of fifty rolls about one out time for every seven boxes (1/333) opened (the other side is not visible) the real question like Dakota says... why am I obsessing over this? |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 15:28:13
|
quote:
the real question like Dakota says... why am I obsessing over this?
OCD? |
 |
|
|
|
slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2010 : 16:38:50
|
| Where is c140cessnea when you need him. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
|
|
|
|
cecropia_moth
Penny Pincher Member
USA
222 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2010 : 01:20:28
|
thogey -
I don't think that finding 9 Indian Heads per box is a reasonable expectation. I don't sort a ton of pennies...I have been averaging one $50 bag give/take for about the last 8 months...let's say 150,000 sorted total. In that time I have never found an Indian. I think I read where someone said you need to sort roughly 250,000 cents to turn up an Indian...then add roll ends...the odds must be astronomical.
Jeff |
|
|
|
thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2010 : 08:28:48
|
quote:
Originally posted by cecropia_moth
thogey -
I don't think that finding 9 Indian Heads per box is a reasonable expectation. I don't sort a ton of pennies...I have been averaging one $50 bag give/take for about the last 8 months...let's say 150,000 sorted total. In that time I have never found an Indian. I think I read where someone said you need to sort roughly 250,000 cents to turn up an Indian...then add roll ends...the odds must be astronomical.
Jeff
I was kinda making light of a realcent member who recently posted finding 9 IHPs in a box. I agree with you and believe the real odds are 1/150000 to 1/250000 |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
|
cecropia_moth
Penny Pincher Member
USA
222 Posts |
Posted - 03/01/2010 : 11:43:56
|
OK...Now I get what you were referring to!!! I should have picked up on that...you are way too experienced to believe there are 9 IHP's per box on average. My bad.
Jeff |
|
|
|
uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 03/04/2010 : 15:57:04
|
According to the unreliably small test sample I brought home today ($5 in String rolls), the odds are pretty good. One in ten rolls  Had to experiment with the closeup setting on my camera, but here's a 56D.
 |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
|
slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 03/04/2010 : 16:03:21
|
| I think I figured it out, the odds of finding a wheat on the end of a roll is the same as the odds of one of us figuring out the odds. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
|
|
|
|
uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 03/04/2010 : 16:38:08
|
| That roll was good to me. 22 copper including 2 wheats (the other was a 1953D) and a 1966 Canadian. |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
|
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
help me with the odds of this
Forum Locked
