|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 02/26/2010 : 15:26:47
|
A must read, imo:
COMEX INVENTORY DATA REVEAL AN
ALARMING TREND
By Adrian Douglas
You must be logged in to see this link.
Snips:
"For more than 6 months I have been gathering data released daily by the
COMEX concerning delivery notices and inventory levels of gold and silver. This
data must be captured and recorded each day as there is no database of
historical data available to the general public.
Studying data on a daily basis is not conducive to seeing the big picture so I have
just completed a study of what can be discerned by looking at the entire 6
months of data. The results are very revealing."
.........
"Table 1 summarizes the data collected from August 6, 2009 to February 12,
2010.
What is immediately clear is that the cumulative withdrawals from the “registered”
category (the dealers) are inferior to the amount of silver and gold obligations
implied by the delivery notices.
In silver the equivalent of 33.5 Mozs of delivery notices were issued yet only 16.3
Mozs (49%) of silver bullion left the registered inventory over the same period. In
gold, 2.8 Mozs of delivery notices were issued and only 2.04 Mozs (73%) of gold
left the registered inventory. What happened to the difference? There are a few
possibilities
1) the delivery receipts were re-tendered for cash
You must be logged in to see this link.
2) the deliveries have not been made yet
3) metal was leased from the customers (eligible inventory) and so the
difference, therefore, appears included in the total withdrawals from the
customer inventory
4) there were large deliveries between dealers not requiring any movement
of metal in the registered category
Of these possibilities (4) seems the least likely. Why would a dealer stand for
delivery only to leave the metal on the exchange?
Option (3) is a distinct possibility because the cumulative withdrawals from both
eligible and registered categories in silver are 38.9 Mozs and in gold 2.47 Mozs
which are very comparable to the delivery notice totals of 33.5 Mozs and 2.8
Mozs for silver and gold respectively. If the dealers are leasing metal to meet
delivery this would be extremely bullish.
Options (1) and (2) are also possibilities.
So the conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that the metal being
delivered from the registered category is not on its own high enough by a
substantial margin to meet the obligations represented by the delivery notices. It
is not, however, possible to say where the balance has come from.
But what is more important is that the data reveals a very shocking trend. That is
that the registered (dealer) inventory is being drawn down at a phenomenal rate.
In silver the inventory has dropped by 24% in 6 months while in gold it has
dropped an eye-popping 41% in 6 months! The withdrawal to deposit ratio for
registered silver is 14:1 and in gold it is 5:1. If this rate of drawdown continues
the registered inventory of silver will be exhausted in 18.8 months and in just 8.5
months for gold!
This inventory drawdown is very revealing. Over the same period the open
interest in gold increased 15% while in silver it increased 19%. By way of an
analogy one would not expect a company with increasing orders to decrease its
stock levels! Why would the inventory not be replenished when Open Interest is
increasing? The most likely reason is a growing shortage of bullion."...
Much more at link above.
|
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
|
Must read.
Forum Locked
