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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
 Posted - 11/16/2009 : 10:06:59
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I have been thinking recently about how most folks report averaging around 20% when they sort. Ok, where is the other 80%? I know there are tons in drawers, closets floors, glass jars, piggy banks and the like. I got that... also I know from reading past articles that lots of money is literally thrown away in the trash by mistake or just lost.
What percentage of the 80% of pennies that are copper do you think the Mint or others have already melted? Obviously they have to be somewhere!
Also, at what percentage point would you just stop looking? 10% or 5%? What say you?
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highroller4321
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2648 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 10:15:47
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List of reasons:
1: Pennies are the #1 most mutilated coin
2: Every year the mint takes X amount of coins out if circulation
3: Most "older" people have a small stash of pennies
4: Penny hoarders like ourselves
5: Jackson Metals was metling copper by the truckload. The have 5 machines that can sort copper at the rate of 4000 coins a minute.
I also don't think the % is down in the low 20's for most. I was getting 28-31% back in Iowa. I believe I am getting around 25% here in Oregon.
% that you stop at depends on what you can get for them. If the melt ban stays on than I would say maybe 7%. |
Copper Penny Investing
www.portlandmint.com |
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dakota1955
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2212 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 10:34:54
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| I don't think that I would stop sorting but I would cut back if the percentage got to low. Just like wheaties we all look for them even if you only find a few per bag. |
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slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 10:53:11
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they have been diluted down from 1982 till now with zincs. that is 27 years of zincs diluting the ratio.
Add that to the numbers that have been hoarded, lost,destoyed, or melted. I will keep going till it gets below 10%. I will probably stil not stop then if the copper price makes it worth it to continue. We sort dimes and halves with a less than 3% silver find because the silver prices make it worth it. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 10:59:09
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Assuming "a complete vacuum" from all other factors, where EVERY small cent ever made were dumped at one bank, perfectly mixed, and bagged up by $50 lots, you should get:
2962 zinc cents from 1983-present
1841 copper cents from 1865-1981 - indians and wheats and mems!
183 cents from 1982 (can't be included in the others, since we don't know the comparative mintages of the two compositions)
12 steel cents from 1943
2 copper-nickel cents from 1857-1865 - flying eagles and early indians!
But of course if this were the case, there would be a very long line at that bank!!! |
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Edited by - uthminsta on 11/16/2009 11:01:41 |
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 11:07:12
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Oops, that list does not include the total mintage of 2009 cents. It only had approximate figures for 2009 type ones. But still you get the picture right?
About 3000 zinc and about 2000 copper. And that's without all the hoards and melting and other factors mentioned taken into consideration. So the fact that many are still getting 20-25 percent copper sounds pretty good to me. Zincolns are everywhere. Over 270 billion zincolns served and counting! |
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 11:30:50
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Let's continue this hypothetical journey for one more go. I refigured with 2 billion as the 2009 mintage so far, including the first three types. That only slightly affected the totals - there would be 1835 coppers. They would break down thus:
1546 memorials
270 wheats
18 indians
Wouldn't you like to get 18 indians in a bag?
But the refiguring kind of proves the point. Just adding a half year's additional coins lowers the copper expectation by 6 coins. Keep up at that rate and over time... presto change-o, much more zinc!
Aaron |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 15:31:20
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| My back-of-the-envelope calculation says that we lost the 95% Cu pennies at a rate of 5%/year since 1982. Does this seem reasonable? |
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knibloe
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1066 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 15:36:21
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quote:
Originally posted by JerrySpringer
My back-of-the-envelope calculation says that we lost the 95% Cu pennies at a rate of 5%/year since 1982. Does this seem reasonable?
I don't think that they were lost, I think that they were diluted out like slickeast said. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 15:42:45
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| oh, right, the total amount of pennies grew. I guess the Cu yield dropped at a rate of 5%/year. At that rate, in 14 years, rolls will yield maybe 12% in net Cu, on average. |
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JobIII
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1507 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 15:49:40
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| Since no more coppers will every really be returning to the general circulation, it seems logical that the other 80% have been culled from circulation. But some find higher %'s so figure there is a running average of 35% Cu still out there. Next year who knows maybe it'll be 30%. |
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Mikep2020
Penny Collector Member
USA
402 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 16:33:52
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| Its not that all the copper cents "disappeared" from circulation, its that the existing quantities of Cu cents are being dilluted down every year with new zinc cents. |
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Bluegill
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1964 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 16:41:02
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I feel slick is on the right track. This is a rather interesting question, so I broke out my Red Book.
Some numbers to put things in perspective.
There were 1.677 billion IH minted. Excluding the varities I and II CuNi. Just the 1864 thru '09.
There were 24.698 billion wheats minted. Excluding the steel '43's.
There were 153.960 billion Cu LMC's minted. The Red Book combined the Cu and Zn numbers for '82. Everyone agrees that the percentage of Cu for '82 is about 75%, so that has been factored in.
That is a total of 180.335 billion Cu small cents minted from 1864 thru '82.
There were 274.678 Zn LMC's minted. My Red Book is an '08. The mintage numbers stop at '06. The mint has averaged 7 billion coins between the 2 mints per year for the 21st century. So I added 14 billion for '07 and '08. I left '09 out of the equation.
That's;
180.335 billion Cu coins in the span of 118 years.
274.678 billion Zn coins in the span of 26 years.
That's 455.013 small cents (excluding the '43's and '09's) from 1864 thru 2008.
That gives us 50% more Zn than Cu, all minted in the last 26 years.
When adding up the numbers, I rounded off to the nearest million. So these numbers are give or take a few million.
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1872 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2009 : 17:06:17
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| Bluegill, those are pretty much right-on with the numbers I used for my calculations. You could count on between 2.7 and 3 billion in 2009. The figures I found online put the first three types at just over 2 billion, or about 2/3 billion per type. |
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Silver Miser
New Member
USA
19 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 01:54:46
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I agree with the dilution theory. Zincs pumped out in the billions every year along with a little hoarding, loss, damage, etc, and you've got copper down to 20% or less. I am in Southern California and my total copper percentage for 52 boxes is 17.1%
Silver Miser |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 02:54:30
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Dilution is the answer as the math posted by slick and uthminsta shows. There is another factor that was touched on, but I'll expand on a bit.
The moment coins get into circulation they start dropping out of circulation at a nearly predictable rate. I read or heard somewhere that a good number of pennies never make it past their first or second transaction.
Coins drop out of circulation because they are:
=Collected (starting with mint fresh rolls to Indians plucked by collectors today)
=Hoarded by people who see no value in them (change bucket types)
=dropped and lost in the streets, gutters, grass, sewers (hence the hobby of metal detecting)
=tossed in rivers, lakes etc for good luck
=taken out of the country where they can't be used (we see international coins here right?)
=Melted legally or illegally
=Destroyed, Mutilated, used in science experments, on railway tracks, made into washers or shims, etc
=some crazy penny sorter pulls them for intrinsic value
So let's say 10% (just a wild guess for illustration) of the coins minted each year drop out of circulation each year. Say this year 100 pennies are minted. During the year 10 coins drop from circulation, leaving 90 to start next year. Next year, 10% drop=9 so only 81 are left. Next year we lose 10% again, so that leaves 73. Then another 7 are lost and so on. Pretty soon there are not so many of a given year left and as they get more rare they gain some value and the collectors garb the remaining coins.
Meanwhile the percentage of coin in circulation in circulation for a given year is also forced down by increasing numbers of new coins entering the system. With no new coins minted for a given year after the end of that year, the population has no where to go but down. Just as we have few 100 year old people left, we have few 100 year old coins in circulation.
This is why we can pull higher percentages in Canada because we have 14 extra years of copper to collect. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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1945V
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
153 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 07:51:21
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Jadedragon,
I would also add to your list.
- Coins that were buried in a jar outdoors or hidden in a house (behind a wall or under floor boards)and forgotten about or the owner died without telling anybody about his/her stash. I was watching "Standby Me" the other day and one of the kids buried a jar full of pennies and forgot the location.
Given the movie was set in 1959, it must have contained a lot of nice wheats and many Indians.
I read somewhere the US mint melted millions of Indian pennies during the copper shortages of 1943 (hence the steel pennies they made that year). |
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dakota1955
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2212 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 07:58:15
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| this is all good food for thought. |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 08:04:38
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quote:
Originally posted by 1945V
Jadedragon,
I would also add to your list.
- Coins that were buried in a jar outdoors or hidden in a house (behind a wall or under floor boards)and forgotten about or the owner died without telling anybody about his/her stash. I was watching "Standby Me" the other day and one of the kids buried a jar full of pennies and forgot the location.
Given the movie was set in 1959, it must have contained a lot of nice wheats and many Indians.
I read somewhere the US mint melted millions of Indian pennies during the copper shortages of 1943 (hence the steel pennies they made that year).
just thinking about that, if it happened, is enough to make ya wanna cry  |
Hoard now and hold on!
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AgCollector
Penny Collector Member
USA
266 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 10:26:54
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As has been mentioned, dilution is one major factor and the other is the steady loss of cents. For that last topic, here's an interesting thought:
-if we assume that from year to year the total number of circulating cents is constant, then the mintage of each year is equal to the number of cents lost per year
-in the 90's and 2000's combined P+D mintages are (ballpark) 10 billion cents
-the US population is about 300 million
-thus, the mint makes 10 billion / 300 million =
33 cents per person, per year
-and we can equate this to mean that on average, every man, woman and child in the US is responsible for 33 pennies disappearing every year (thrown away, into fountains, etc as JadeDragon said)
So, what do you do with your 33 pennies every year?! |
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vrbsroma
Penny Collector Member
394 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 11:20:05
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| There's a site at the mint that shows how long paper (cotton) currency "lives" in circulation before it is worn/destroyed. There must be a similar chart for coins, no? I'd imagine they have a much longer lifespan, but can definitely see a loss each year in the range of 10-30% for various reasons. Has anyone considered that there are boatload shipped off to be melted in China? |
As far as I know, it is stated "In God We Trust" on the US dollar. How can I trust this currency if I do not believe in God?
Possession is nine-tenths of the law.
When I give my two cents, they're always copper! |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 11/18/2009 : 11:51:49
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| You must be logged in to see this link. Looks like the mint claims a dollar coin will last on average 30 years while a dollar bill lives for 18 months. I would think your average penny lasts much less time because it is subjected to way less care by people than a dollar coin might be. Interesting to read "The failure of the Sacagawea Golden Dollar with 92.7 million of them still in storage from 2000 and 2001 is a small sampling of past letdowns." |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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jman1237
Penny Sorter Member
USA
52 Posts |
Posted - 12/01/2009 : 09:12:09
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| I am curious if anyone has ever heard of or remembers a new story that vaguely goes like this. A million DOLLARS or perhaps it was a billion? (doubt it) in pennies are simply LOST every year. I suppose on sidewalks, car seats, open fields. just simply lying there not being picked up. IF only I could get all those??? hmmmm. |
Jason Rasset
http://iamabullionaire.wordpress.com/ |
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knibloe
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1066 Posts |
Posted - 12/04/2009 : 20:36:58
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quote:
Originally posted by jman1237
I am curious if anyone has ever heard of or remembers a new story that vaguely goes like this. A million DOLLARS or perhaps it was a billion? (doubt it) in pennies are simply LOST every year. I suppose on sidewalks, car seats, open fields. just simply lying there not being picked up. IF only I could get all those??? hmmmm.
The mints are making a 10 billion pennies per year. That equals 100 million dollars per year. Why do they make them? because they did disappear somewhere. |
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slickeast
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2533 Posts |
Posted - 12/04/2009 : 21:23:43
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Just look in your couch and under the seat in your car. Multiply that number by all the cars and couches in the US. Don't forget to count all the couches that are in the landfill and all the cars that have made it to the junk yards.
I bet the number would be shocking. |
You don't have to be the BEST you just have to be.......SLICK
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Topic |
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Where did the other 80% of the copper pennies go?
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