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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
 Posted - 11/11/2009 : 12:27:08
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Say it's the year 2011 and you believe the gold boom is nearing its end. What do you do with the yellow metal before it possibly crashes like it did after 1980?
Prominent Ron Paul backer and financial adviser Larry Lepard has a practical suggestion. This interview occurred right before his speech to Republican Liberty Caucus supporters in New Hampshire.
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Want freedom?
Move to New Hampshire!
www.FreeStateProject.org |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/11/2009 : 18:59:32
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| The video encourages one to wait for a major pullback on gold price. We may have gotten past the point of no return, though. The market has smartened up to the idea that people may not be bailing on gold next time we have a stock market calamity. I remember when gold at $300 an ounce some years ago seemed like Las Vegas gambling. I can not get my head around paying $1100+ an ounce now too. Of course, like the video interviewee said, prices can get to blow-off tops that can astound. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 11/11/2009 : 19:41:00
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quote:
Originally posted by DadaOrwell
Say it's the year 2011 and you believe the gold boom is nearing its end. What do you do with the yellow metal before it possibly crashes like it did after 1980?
Prominent Ron Paul backer and financial adviser Larry Lepard has a practical suggestion. This interview occurred right before his speech to Republican Liberty Caucus supporters in New Hampshire.
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ok, i don't have 10 min to watch a video. what was his suggestion? |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 11/12/2009 : 18:59:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
quote:
Originally posted by DadaOrwell
Say it's the year 2011 and you believe the gold boom is nearing its end. What do you do with the yellow metal before it possibly crashes like it did after 1980?
Prominent Ron Paul backer and financial adviser Larry Lepard has a practical suggestion. This interview occurred right before his speech to Republican Liberty Caucus supporters in New Hampshire.
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ok, i don't have 10 min to watch a video. what was his suggestion?
In a nutshell, hold on to your gold and silver until this economic problem is solved. That will be when we are on a gold standard again. He mentioned the prices should run up until 2012 at least.
I got mixed feelings as to when to exit. Yes, I agree we are in a real economic mess now. I'm not down-playing any of it. But on the other hand few if any of those who are selling you gold or silver will ever tell you that's now time to sell instead of buy.
IMO you need to look around for yourself and judge if gold and silver are over bought and are in a bubble. It mostly comes down to will the money you get for your PMs buy a hell of a lot more worth while things (such as land) then the money you put into it dispite current inflation or dollar devaluation? Is the PM market prices based more on logic or fear and greed? Back in 79/80 it looked like gold and silver prices were never going to fall again. Remember, people were out there buying precious metals at the 1980 peak. But PM prices collapsed and took decades even without adjusting for inflation to recover. (Except for silver which never did.)
If you believe and continue to believe that we are heading for a 100% tanking of the dollar then hold on tight to your precious metals...and guns... no matter how high PM prices go. But don't be too shocked if you someday learn that this is just another PM cycle that will peak just before the other political party regains power. |
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Think positive. |
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billo
Penny Collector Member
293 Posts |
Posted - 11/12/2009 : 20:13:23
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| Ardent, I agree...the dollar/Fed problems are real, PM's intrinsic values are real...but there is always the PM hype too, every "news" is an ad. Easy to lose some fiat value short term if the timing is wrong. Long term they do hold the value, though, and are real money. |
That's not a dollar, mate...THIS is a dollar.
http://www.sendcongressapinkslip.com/ |
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 11/12/2009 : 21:46:01
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I agree. As Ardent alluded to, you follow the primary rule of investing; sell over-valued assets and acquire under-valued assets. The trick, of course, is recognizing when PMs will be over-valued and then recognizing which assets are under-valued.
Ardent mentioned two possibilities:
A. 100% tanking of the dollar (hyperinflation).
B. a PM cycle that peaks and then, after reasonable fiscal and monetary policies are implemented, goes dormant for another generation.
Of we could see scenario C: A period of mass inflation (10% to 50% per year) where the dollar losses about 90% of its value, but is still used as the primary medium of exchange. This would culminate with the realization that money should be backed by hard assets and should not have its value set by bankers and/or politicians.
I think 1979/1980 is an effective template for what may happen. Back then I was kid far more concerned about baseball cards than honest money, but my impression is that for a few months there was a desperate, almost irrational grab for gold and silver. It seems to have become conventional wisdom that the dollar's days were numbered.
Unfortunately those investors apparently ignored Volker's efforts to defend the dollar by aggressively raising interest rates to near 20%. Also they could not know that Reagan would be elected later that year and would subsequently institute a massive tax cut for the wealthy. This released billions of investment dollars which, in part, financed the technological revolution of the 80s and 90s. I believe this increase in innovation gave the dollar a temporary reprieve. Finally there are those, like Ted Butler, who claim that various governments and central banks have, for the past 20 years, been actively working to suppress PM prices for obvious reasons.
I think its important to point out that, of the three factors that I believe caused the decline in PM values, only the alleged government/banker price suppression scheme remains, although it appears to be faltering. My point is that most of the population does not understand the tenuous position the dollar is in and PMs won't near a long term peak until they do. I'm an optimist in that I think we will avoid hyperinflation when an enlightened electorate forces the politicians to adopt policies that support wealth creation and a strong ("real") currency. At that point there should be some investment opportunities that justify the pairing down of PM positions. |
Edited by - theo on 11/12/2009 21:49:25 |
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How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs
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