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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/10/2006 : 22:08:06
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Maybe copper's decline is short lived........
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Copper may rise next week on speculation that disruption to supplies from Zambia, Africa's largest producer of the metal, will exacerbate a shortage.
Eight of 14 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday forecast copper will advance. Four expect a decline and two little change.
Vedanta Resources Plc suspended production at a plant at its Konkola Copper Mines unit on Nov. 6 after it leaked waste into a river.
The global copper shortfall will extend into next year, Credit Suisse Group said on Nov. 2.
"Supply disruptions like the one in Zambia keep coming up,"
said Andrew Cole, an analyst at Metal Bulletin Research in London.
"It would go against the grain for copper to decline."
Copper, used to make wires and pipes, has jumped 82 percent in the past 12 months.
Strikes reduced output at Grupo Mexico SA in the first half. Declining ore quality hurt production at Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg project in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange dropped $30, or 0.4 percent, to $7,290 a metric ton as of 7:19 a.m. local time. It has fallen 0.5 percent this week, heading for a second straight weekly decline.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to $3.301 a pound in after-hours electronic trading. Copper for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 0.9 percent to close at $67,780 yuan ($8,618) a ton. Chinese prices include 17 percent tax and 2 percent duty.
Unforeseen Disruption
Strikes, rockfalls and other unforeseen events have cost 476,000 tons of production this year,
about 3 percent of global supply, Credit Suisse said in its Nov. 2 report.
Use will exceed supply by 252,000 tons next year, the bank said.
Vedanta's Nchanga tailing leach plant, which was affected by the leak, has an annual capacity of 100,000 tons.
The company will keep it shut until the fault is fixed, Vedanta spokesman Samuel Equamo said Nov. 8 in an interview from Lusaka, Zambia.
Copper will also gain after the Democrats clinched majorities in both houses of the U.S. Congress for the first time in 12 years, said Lorne Kalisky, president of Vican Trading Inc. in Montreal. The U.S. is the second-largest copper user, after China.
"Commodities are going to move up as a reaction to that," Kalisky said.
A slowdown in U.S. economic growth has weighed on metals prices. Copper has dropped 17 percent since trading in London at a record $8,800 on May 11. The U.S. economy expanded 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the smallest increase in gross domestic product since 2003.
Rising Inventory
Increasing copper inventory may be an indication that demand is cooling, said William O'Neill, executive director of Upper Saddle River, New Jersey-based Logic Advisors LLC.
"The market is showing technical weakness and LME stocks have been on the rise," O'Neill said.
Stockpiles tracked by the LME rose 2,325 tons, or 1.6 percent, to 146,575 tons yesterday. They have more than doubled in the past year. Most of the increases have been in the U.S. Inventory there has risen 13-fold to 23,700 tons from 1,800 tons at the beginning of October. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/10/2006 : 22:17:55
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Nickel gains most in one week after demand outpaces supplies
Nickel gained most in one week as demand for the metal used in stainless-steel production has outpaced supplies, creating a shortfall.
Demand will increase more than 5 percent this year, John Meyer, a London-based analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. said today in an interview. Rising consumption has reduced stockpiles of the metal tracked by the London Metal Exchange by 63 percent in the past year.
"We've seen a drop in the LME stockpiles, which are still very tight," Robin Bhar, a London-based metals analyst at UBS Ltd., said today by telephone.
Prices of nickel for delivery in three months on the LME gained $495, or 1.6 percent, to $30,800 a ton as of 10:27 a.m. local time. That's the largest one-day gain since Nov. 2. The contract has more than doubled in the past year, trading at $32,625 a ton on Oct. 20, the highest since at least 1987.
Global production of high-nickel-content stainless steel increased more than 13 percent in the first nine months of this year, Eramet SA, a French producer, said on Nov. 3. The nickel- supply shortfall will be 40,000 tons this year, according to Societe Generale.
The LME's plan to lift three-month-old restrictions on nickel trading had no impacts on prices, Bhar and Randy North, a trader at RBC Capital Markets said. The 129-year-old exchange said today that the restrictions that limit the borrowing cost of nickel to $300 per ton per day will cease on Nov. 13.
Nickel stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the exchange fell to 4,128 tons on July 31, the lowest since 1991. They stood at 7,362 tons today, according to the LME. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/10/2006 : 22:20:11
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CVRD forecasts tight global iron ore, nickel markets, strong Chinese growth
Brazilian mega-iron ore miner CVRD Thursday predicted that global iron ore and nickel markets will remain tight, and copper inventories will continue to be critically low.
During a conference call to discuss third-quarter results, CVRD Finance Director Fabio Barbosa said the CEIC Data, which specializes in Asian economic research, forecasts a 13% average annual growth rate for Chinese steel production during 2006-2012. He explained that most of the planned 300 million tonnes in iron ore production is destined for China. Shipments of CVRD iron ore to China increased by 40% this year.
Barbosa told analysts that China's domestically mined iron ore has lost ground in the nation's iron ore consumption. For example, he noted that the mining of one ton of iron ore in China is estimated to generate more than 10 tons of waste and tailings. He added that import substitution does not seem to be an option in China.
Meanwhile, Barbosa explained that the Middle East is become the latest boom region with investments in construction and industrial capacity in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain, growing dramatically. He also predicted that Indian iron ore export growth will lose steam to the requirements of its own expanding domestic steel industry.
Barbosa told analysts that "nickel inventories are minimal and demand is growing strongly." CVRD also believes that global growth and Chinese investment in stainless steel capacity will continue to drive nickel demand increase. The expansion of the aerospace, energy and battery industries will also strongly drive non-stainless steel demand, according to Barbosa. He added that nickel supply growth will be constrained in the short term by technologic challenges in laterite nickel projects, high capex costs, resources shortages and production disruptions.
Barbosa said CVRD has now acquired 86.57% of Inco's capital on a fully diluted basis, and that the integration of the two companies is now in progress. The integration of the two companies will result in a total debt of $7.72 billion of which nearly $5.9 billion is CVRD debt and $1.9 billion is Inco debt, according to Barbosa. CVRD is using $2 billion of its own cash holdings and is borrowing the remaining $15.6 billion with a bridge loan with a syndicate of 37 banks from North American, Brazil, Europe, Asia and Australia. CVRD is bowing less than half of the $34 billion originally offered by the syndicate to finance the all-cash Inco acquisition.
CVRD is already working on reducing its debt by selling its $177 million stake in Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas to Nippon Steel and Brazilian firms Votorantim Participacoes SA and Camargo Correa. The sale cuts CVRD's stake in Usiminas from 22.9% to 5.9%.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
CVRD announced the best performance in its history for the third quarter of 2006 including record net earnings of $1.9 billion or 79-cents per share, a 44.6% increase over the third-quarter 2005. For the first nine months of 2006, net earnings totaled $5 billion or $2.04 per share, compared to $3.64 billion or $1.58 per share during the same period of 2005. |
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n/a
deleted
103 Posts |
 Posted - 11/11/2006 : 18:22:23
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Copper Falls to Four-Month Low on Higher Chinese Inventories
By Millie Munshi
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper plunged to a four-month low, capping the biggest weekly decline since September, as higher inventories renewed speculation that demand may be slowing in China, the world's largest user of the metal.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 15 percent this week and Chinese imports dropped 22 percent in the first 10 months of the year, the Beijing-based customs office said on its Web site Nov. 8. Surging demand from China helped send prices to a record high in May, and copper prices had quintupled since 2001.
``The demand on a domestic basis has collapsed completely,'' said Bret Tauben, who trades scrap copper for metals-recycler Metalsco Inc. in St. Louis. ``If you want to sell scrap copper today, it really has to be sold in Asia, and the demand there has been spotty.''
Copper futures for December delivery fell 21.9 cents, or 6.6 percent, to $3.09 a pound at 1 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after reaching $3.08, the lowest since June 28. Prices are down 7 percent for the week, the third straight decline, and have fallen 24 percent from a record $4.04 on May 11.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months fell $415, or 5.7 percent, to $6,910 a metric ton ($3.134 a pound), the first time it has traded below $7,000 since June 29. Prices still are up 73 percent from a year ago.
Copper will fall to $2.40 a pound next year and $1.65 in 2008, Merrill Lynch & Co. said today, reiterating an earlier forecast. Mine supply, which has been trailing demand during copper's rally, will exceed demand by 500,000 tons next year, Merrill said in its report.
Rising Inventories
Total inventory of copper at warehouses monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai jumped to 210,541 tons as of today, the highest since March 13.
``If China's demand doesn't come back roaring, there would be very few copper-hugging people out there,'' said Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Calyon in London.
A slowing U.S. housing market also will dampen copper prices in the next year, Merrill said. Home construction fell last quarter at the fastest rate since 1991. Builders are the biggest buyers of copper, which is used in wire and pipe.
``We do not believe the worst of the U.S. housing cycle is behind us and the full impact of reduced demand for copper may not be felt until early-mid 2007,'' Merrill said in the report.
Scrap Prices
Metalsco's Tauben, who has been in the metals industry since 1979, said the price gap between scrap and primary copper is as wide as he's ever seen and may be eroding demand.
Bare #1 copper scrap, the highest grade and a very close substitute to new metal, has been consistently priced at least 20 cents a pound less than the Comex price, he said.
Producers of new copper have been ``afraid to call their customers because they're afraid their customers will delay orders,'' or buy scrap metal instead, Tauben said. ``The price is too high for the reality.''
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.
To contact the reporters on this story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net ;
Last Updated: November 10, 2006 13:12 EST
The above post is intended for entertainment purposes only and in no way reflect the opinions of the flesh and blood person writing the text. All writings under the screen name "copperhead" are merely a characterization of the personna created. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2006 : 11:13:26
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Copper Declines in London, Heading for a Fourth Weekly Drop
By Chanyapr0n Chanjaroen
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Copper declined, heading for a fourth successive weekly drop on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum and nickel also fell.
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME dropped $70, or 1 percent, to $6,740 a ton as of 9:20 a.m. local time. The metal has lost 2.6 percent this week. It has fallen 23 percent since trading at a record $8,800 on May 11.
Aluminum declined $48, or 1.8 percent, to $2,620 a ton and nickel fell $200 to $29,400. Zinc dropped $65 to $4,160 and lead was $45 lower at $1,490. Tin slid $100 to $9,700.
To contact the reporter on the story: Chanyapr0n Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 17, 2006 04:25 EST
1909-1982 Cent (95% copper) * $0.01 $0.0204141 204.14%
1946-2007 Nickel $0.05 $0.0629102 125.82%
1982-2007 Cent (97.5% zinc) * $0.01 $0.0109433 109.43%
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
Edited by - Ardent Listener on 11/17/2006 11:16:47 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2006 : 19:29:39
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China's copper imports may rise to 1 million tons in 2007
China's copper imports may rise to 1 million metric tons in 2007 if the State Reserve Bureau stops selling copper from its stocks, with end user inventories currently at a low level, said an industry official Thursday.
The decline in copper imports so far this year has been largely due to rising domestic output and the SRB's sales, said Jiao Jian, general manager of the copper department of China Minmetals Nonferrous Co., a nonferrous metals trader under China Minmetals Corp.
China's copper cathode imports fell 42% on year to 592,116 tons in January-to-September. Copper rods and wires are manufactured from slabs of copper cathode.
Besides, lower copper futures prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange compared with those on the London Metal Exchange have also curbed imports this year, Jiao said during the two-day Chinese Copper Conference in Shanghai.
The price differential has widened due to expectations of a gradual appreciation of the yuan, as well as the SRB's sales.
It remains unprofitable to import, he said.
But "the price gap between the SHFE and the LME will narrow next year, with the stop of SRB sales," Jiao said.
He also estimated that copper concentrate imports in 2007 will likely match or exceed 4.06 million tons in 2005. Domestic production will rise to 1 million tons in 2007 versus 950,000 tons in 2006, according to Jiao's estimate.
China's copper concentrate imports fell 7% in January-to-September to 2.73 million tons.
Copper concentrate is turned into copper cathode at metal refineries.
Jiao added that overall copper consumption in 2006 is estimated to grow 5.6%, which would mark the slowest pace of expansion since 2000.
However, "the growth of China's copper consumption has just begun, and the growth is estimated to continue until 2020-2023," he said.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2006 : 19:35:47
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Eramet briefly shuts furnace, nickel shipment continues
French nickel producer Eramet SA said Wednesday it has fulfilled shipments to Europe and avoided declaring force majeure despite industrial action.
"We have been able to send material to Europe, it was a normal shipment and we didn't have to declare force majeure," a company spokesman said.
Production at Eramet's Doniambo smelter has dropped by 50 metric tons a day because of a strike since Sept. 25.
"The situation is still difficult in the mining area but not at the plant, where people are working. We have enough ore to keep the furnace going," the spokesman said.
The New Caledonian Confederated Union of Workers went on strike to protest against living costs. The action isn't aimed directly at Eramet though the union is seeking more benefits from the mining sector on the island.
Separately, a leak briefly shut down a furnace at the smelter.
"Nickel slag leaked out and we had to stop the furnace. It is now working again. This sort of technical problem happens sometimes but it is now under control," the spokesman said.
Eramet's group subsidiary Le Nickel-SLN operates four mining sites located in the Northern and Southern parts of French territory New Caledonia in the South Pacific.
Nickel deliveries declined by 8.5% to 13,558 tons in the third quarter due to the strike and the company declared force majeure on a shipment for the end of September to Asia.
In earlier statements, the company said it expected to produce 68,000 tons of nickel in 2006
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Nickel & copper news. (ongoing)
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