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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2006 : 18:58:11
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from 9/29 excerpt
* In an Sept 22nd article in Platts Metals Daily Comex Report, and printed in a Sucden report, Derek Benham explained to the Recycling Industries Nickel Stainless Roundtable last week, why he feels fund speculation has driven LME nickel prices so high. While he makes a good argument, there is one section in particular worth quoting. "Benham also argued that there was no shortage of physical nickel on the US and European markets, adding that when customer have wanted nickel, they had been able to buy it. But he said that if nickel demand remained as strong in 2007 and continued rising, then nickel prices next year could make "the prices of 2006 look like child's play".
* Point to Ponder - "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:20:09
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Some copper news to consider.
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With weak domestic mining production, China needs copper imports
Dorothy Kosich
RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --Chinese copper experts said China’s domestic copper mine supply is still the weakest link in the Chinese copper industry, forcing the nation to continue to be dependent on overseas supply.
In a presentation to Chile’s Copper Commission (Cochilco), Wan Ling of the Beijing Antaike Information Development Company (The China Metals Information Network) noted that “Chinese copper consumption is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate is likely to slowdown in the next five years.” Nevertheless, he suggested that soaring copper prices will promote the substitution of copper.
Meanwhile, Wan predicted that Chinese smelting and refining capacity is expected to rise dramatically over the next few years. However, he added, the growth rate of refined copper imports is likely to slow compared with copper concentrates. Wan estimated that China imported 2.08 million tones of copper concentrate in January through July, a 6% decrease from 2005. He added that China imported 2.54 tonnes of copper scrap during the same period, for a 7.89% year-on-year decrease.
Antaike has predicted that Chile and China “will have a lot of cooperation opportunities in the copper industry in the future,” noting that the Chinese Government’s copper policies will depend on the future development of the copper industry, he said.
The Chinese Government says that 1,056 copper deposits are located in the nation, hosting a total reserve base of 29.29 million tons. China represents 5.6% of world copper reserves, ranking seventh after Chile, the United States, Poland, Russian, Peru and Indonesia. China produced 410,534 tonnes of copper in concentrate from January through July, an 18.37% year-on-year increase.
Wan said that future potential Chinese copper supply is expected from Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Chinese provinces. Among the projects expected to be commissioned this year is the De’erni Copper Mine in the Qinghai Province, the Yangla Copper Mine in the Yunnan Province, and the Fujiawa Copper Mine in Jiangxi Province. He noted that the Ministry of Land and Resources plans to increase copper reserves by 20 million tonnes from 2006 to 2010.
China has become the world’s second largest refined copper producer with 50 smelters and 80 refineries operating in the country, according to Wan. He added that there are six refineries with annual copper cathode production over 100,000 tonnes. The top six refineries are Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Yunnan Copper Industry, Daye Non-Ferrous Company Metals, Jinchuan Group and Ningbo Jintian Copper Group, whose total production accounts for 63% of all Chinese refined copper production.
Wan estimated that China now imports about 1.2 million tonnes of refined copper yearly and will continue to import large quantities for the next five years. However, he added, due to the increase in domestic cathode production, imports of refined copper will decline to around 1 million tones from 2006-2009, and rebound to 1.22 million tones in 2010.
Due to the higher TC/RC in the past two years and strong Chinese demand, Wan noted “there are quite a number of copper smelting and refining brownfields and greenfields under construction or consideration.” He estimated that it would increased planned and ongoing copper smelting capacity to 2.6 million tonnes and refining capacity to around 2.2 million tonnes
Among the overseas copper projects now under operation or construction which have attracted Chinese investments are the Chambishi Copper Mine in Zambia, and the Saindak Copper Mine in Pakistan. China’s Minmetals and Chile’s Codelco Company have also signed an agreement to develop copper resources in China. Wan Ling said other projects still under consideration for Chinese investment include Vietnam’s Sin Quyen Copper, Russia’s Udokan, Peru’s Keyaweike, Argentina’s Ai’erpanchange, Afghanistan’s Ainake, and Burma’s Palaidang.
He noted that other top Chinese copper producers including Jiangxi, Tongling, Zijin Mining, and Shaanxi Nonferrous “are also ambitious to go outside of the country for resource exploitation.”
However, Wan said Antaike believes that some of the planned projects may not come to fruition because of China’s macro control policy, raw materials, financing problems and other concerns. Therefore, the company estimated that China will actually have a total of 1.3 million tones of smelting capacity and 1.35 million tones of refining capacity in the future.
Therefore, Antaike forecasts that China will have copper deficit
of 900,000 tonnes this year,
958,000 tonnes in 2007,
861,000 tonnes in 2008,
1.02 million tones in 2009,
and 1.16 million tonnes in 2010.
Wan said refined copper imports from China account for half the total in China.
Wan noted that the Chinese government’s attitude toward copper “is encouraging exploitation of mines, upgrade of smelting and environmental protection technologies and manufacture of new value-added products. …
It welcomes import of copper and copper raw materials while restricting export of copper cathode and copper products as energy-intensive items.” The government encourages exploration to extend the life of existing nonferrous metals mines, and construction of medium- and large-sized mines of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel. He added that China is also encouraging the development and application of pollution-free smelting technologies to process sulphide ores, and the development of high-efficiency leaching technology and equipment.
The Chinese government is also encouraging the production and technology of high-precision copper plate, strip, foil and tube; the manufacturing of high-performance metals material for railway transportation use; the development and application of nonferrous metals compounds; and the development of examination and controlling technologies to be applied in the production of nonferrous metals, according to Wan.
Of particular importance, Wan noted, is the Circular on Several Opinions in the Copper Smelting Industry published by the State Council. It is the first official copper docomeent announced by the Chinese Government, he added. Among its proclamations is a ban against financial institutions extending credit to copper smelting projects that don’t comply with national industrial policies, that don’t meet applicable thresholds for market entry, or have not handled all relevant formalities.
The Chinese Government has issued qualifications for new companies entering the smelting industry as of July 24 to guide smelting and refining capacity expansion, according to Wan.
Re:
Therefore, Antaike forecasts that China will have copper deficit
of 900,000 tonnes this year,
958,000 tonnes in 2007,
861,000 tonnes in 2008,
1.02 million tones in 2009,
and 1.16 million tonnes in 2010.
Expect your pre 1982 pennies to go up in price in the years ahead.
You don't just dig a hole in the ground and say "its a copper mne." It takes years to get a mine up and running. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 19:06:05
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The Chinese are starting to feel the pinch of copper’s price.
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Copper substitution already a fact of life in Chinese manufacturing
Although Chinese manufacturers remain highly dependent on foreign copper mining supplies, producers have already begun substituting copper in some Chinese-made products.
In a presentation to Chile's Copper Commission (Cochilco), Li Lan of the Beijing General Research Institute of Mining and Metallurgy said that, while infrastructure demand will continually fuel Chinese copper demand, substitution will seriously impact domestic copper consumption.
While Li predicted that copper cathode consumption will increase by 6% in China from 2006 to 2010, the growth rate will fall to 3 to 5% from 2011 to 2015.
In the meantime, Li predicted that "the speed of substitution might surprise [the mining industry]," noting that substitution has already occurred due to high copper prices as steel strip replaces copper for hardware production and valves. He also anticipated that low-copper content alloy will replace high copper content alloy use in connector, lead frame, and commercial automobile radiators.
Li also forecast that the use of copper scrap in semis production will also increase due to improved technology, cost cutting measures, and more copper scrap produced domestically.
In the last decade copper usage for power cables has increased by 13%, prompted by an upgrade program in rural areas, the economic development program in western China, a West-to-east power grid connection program, the industrialization and urbanization of China, and the upcoming Olympic games in 2008. Meanwhile, Li told the mining executives at the Cochilco seminar that copper usage in building wire has increased 14% annually during the same period because of a booming real estate industry, building code upgrades, and renovations and repairs in existing buildings.
During the past decade, copper usage for magnet wire production increased by 17% because of increased production of automobiles, power transformers, and electrical appliances.
Copper usage for air conditioners alone accounted for 12% of China's total copperconsumption last year, he added. Chinese-manufactured air conditions already command an 80% share of the world air conditioning market.
However, China is increasingly substituting imported wire rod for domestically manufactured copper wire rod. Li estimated that more than 300 to 400kt of new capacity are under construction in the nation. New wire rod mills have been built by Jiangxi Copper and Walsin. Companies have also relocated their wire rod and ACR tube manufacturing capacity to China, according to Li.
Meanwhile, the copper content in Chinese export production, such as appliances, motors, transformers, and other items manufactured in China, accounted for 20% of total copper and copper alloy demand in the nation, according to Li.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 19:07:52
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Nickel price hits record 30,250 usd/tonne
The price of nickel struck an all-time high point of 30,250 usd per tonne, benefiting from falling stockpiles and strong gains by base metals in general, analysts said.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME) the price per tonne for three-month delivery reached 30,250 usd, the highest reading since nickel began trading on the exchange in 1979.
Nickel prices have soared 125 pct since Jan 1, 2006.
'Nickel prices have risen to set a fresh all-time high... buoyed by positive sentiment towards the base metals and another drawdown in LME nickel stocks,' Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan said.
The prices of nickel had already broken through the 30,000 usd barrier on Aug 24.
The jump in nickel prices hasn't deterred stainless-steel producers, which account for two-thirds of demand for the base metal, the International Nickel Study Group said Oct. 6.
Demand for nickel will jump 10 percent this year to 1.37 million tons, compared with 1.24 million tons last year, the Lisbon-based industry group said . It will rise to 1.45 million tons next year.
"Stainless-steel production improved in the beginning of 2006 and has remained at record-high levels," the group said. Nickel usage fell last year as stainless-steel producers used less of the metal in their products, the group said.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 19:10:48
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Remember, you need nickel to make stainless steel
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Stainless Steel production to grow 5.56%/year 2006-2010: ISSF
Excerpt
According to the latest data from the International Iron and Steel Institute, the total estimated value of the steel industry in 2005 was some Eur550 billion ($697 billion)/year, president of the German Steel Federation Dieter Ameling told delegates Monday at the CRU ninth World Stainless Steel Conference in Dusseldorf, Germany.
From 1990-2005, the compound annual growth rate of stainless crude steel production was 6.18%, and Ameling forecasts the rate to dip to 5.56% between 2006-2010. Figures from the International Stainless Steel Federation forecast total stainless crude steel production to reach 32.5 million mt by 2010.
World demand for steel will continue to grow, said Ameling, with global crude steel production forecast to hit 1.3 billion mt in 2007. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 10/10/2006 19:13:51 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 19:16:54
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Nickel supplies still tight, prices still increasing
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LME closely monitoring nickel market
Intervention by the London Metal Exchange to keep the nickel market orderly as inventories dwindled closer to zero did what it was supposed to do, but the situation is still being closely monitored, outgoing LME Chief Executive Simon Heale said Monday.
"The imposition of a limit to the restrictions are still in place but it is important to emphasize that they did what they were supposed to do. The market remained calm," Heale said.
In August, the LME stepped in to calm the nickel market, imposing a $300 a metric ton limit on the daily backwardation, which had soared out to $1,000/ton as shorts rolled their delivery dates forward from a day to two days. Offsetting longs received $300/ton compensation.
"The Special Committee continues to monitor the situation and will make appropriate decisions when it feels such action is sensible," Heale said.
Speaking at the London Metal Exchange metals seminar in London, Heale said the decision was taken at a time of "genuine material shortage in order to avoid the market becoming disorderly."
"LME contracts have continued to settle and deliveries of nickel both into and out of the warehouses have continued without any interruption throughout this time," he added.
Extra info
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The Daily Resource 10/10/06
Bloomberg reported that LME stockpiles plummeted 8.2% to 4,458 tons, the lowest level since late July.
Supply pessimism reigned among floor traders. “There's simply no material around and consumption is still good,” said Juan Pablo Orjuela, a London-based analyst at Koch Metals Trading Ltd., which trades on the exchange. “For the foreseeable future, stockpiles are going down.”
And there’s no end in sight. “Stainless-steel production improved in the beginning of 2006 and has remained at record-high levels,” the International Nickel Study Group said last Friday. This after nickel usage fell last year as stainless-steel producers used less of the metal in their products, according to the group.
The INSG also predicted that demand will jump this year to 1.37 million tons, compared with 1.24 million tons last year a greater than 10% increase. The Lisbon-based industry group projected another rise next year, to 1.45 million tons.
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Edited by - pencilvanian on 10/10/2006 19:55:49 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 19:34:41
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Still more Chinese metals news
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China metals demand seen up in 2007
By Polly Yam
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China, already a powerhouse behind record-high prices of most base metals in 2006, is expected to be the engine pushing up world consumption next year.
With analysts seeing world prices of base metals trading lower next year than this, price-sensitive Chinese copper and nickel users may develop a strong appetite in 2007 after taking a breather this year.
The Chinese economy, the world's fourth-largest, expanded 11.3 percent from a year earlier in the April-to-June quarter, despite Beijing's curbs on investment and exports.
Annual industrial output, an indicator for metals consumption, rose 15.7 percent on the year in August.
"Is there any reason to expect industrial production growth to slow dramatically from the 15 percent growth rate we're seeing?" Adam Rowley, London-based analyst for Macquarie Bank, said.
"You still get double-digit increases in industrial production, that should mean that we get double digit increases in metals almost across the board," he said of growth in 2007.
He said Chinese demand growth would continue to provide a major offset to a slowdown elsewhere in the world…………..
DEMAND GROWTH
Heng Kun, Shanghai-based analyst for Everbright Securities, said copper consumption in 2007 would strengthen because of strong demand from the power sector and infrastructural projects such as facilities for the Beijing Olympics 2008.
"You cannot find a reason that copper demand would fall," Jing said of 2007.
In the first seven months of this year, China's apparent consumption of refined copper fell 3 percent from a year earlier due to high prices, indicating an annual demand of 3.6 million tonnes in 2006, according to Reuters calculations.
The figure is based on net imports, domestic production and visible stocks and sales from the State Reserves Bureau. It is lower than expected growth in consumption of 5 to 8 percent in 2006 forecast by Chinese analysts.
But industry officials in China argued that increased use of scrap copper has disguised the consumption this year, given the output of semi-fabricated copper products rose 7.0 percent during the same period, compared with 7.7 percent in 2005.
They believe consumption has increased this year and would continue to grow in 2007.
"In terms of product output, a five percent growth in copper consumption will be a must. A fall is impossible," a trade manager for fabricator Chinalco Luoyang Copper Co. said.
Demand could increase even more if world prices fall. High prices are the reason why copper demand in China has weakened this year and prompted the use of substitutes such as aluminum and stainless steel to replace copper.
"There is a very good chance that demand will bounce back very strongly next year. We think Chinese copper demand after no growth this year can grow by about 8 percent next year," Rowley said.
For Chinese aluminum consumption, growth may surpass 15 percent next year, despite the fact that its role in replacing copper in the manufacture of rods and electrical cables is unlikely to expand.
China's apparent consumption of primary aluminum in the first seven months of 2006 surged 35 percent from a year earlier, based on Reuters' calculations.
With the output of semi-fabricated aluminum products rising 32.9 percent during the same months, the demand for primary aluminum may surpass 30 percent for all of 2006.
"The exports of products have been good this year, so demand for aluminum has surged," a manager for a fabricating plant in Guangdong said.
He sees such exports falling next year considering that there are growing fears of a weaker economy in the United States.
But demand from the building and car sectors in China is likely to support growth of local aluminum consumption above 15 percent in 2007.
Consumption of refined lead, zinc and tin in the first seven months of this year rose 14.5 to 30.0 percent from a year earlier and may also continue to enjoy double-digit growth in 2007 due to rising needs from the galvanizing, battery and electronics sectors. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2006 : 20:25:41
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Copper going down?
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Copper may fall on slowing Chinese consumption
Chinese copper imports fell 24 percent in the first nine months of the year to 1.5 million metric tons, the country's customs office said yesterday. Ma Kai, China's top economic planner, said Oct. 9 that the nation will step up efforts to prevent the country's booming economy from overheating.
Six of 13 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday forecast copper will decline next week. Three expected a gain and four predicted little change.
Chinese demand "continues to be on the slow side and I don't expect it to pick up for the balance of 2006," said Warren Gelman, president of St. Louis-based trading company Kataman Metals Inc. Copper will fall next week to about $3.30 to $3.40 a pound, or $7,275 to $7,496 a ton, he said.
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose $20, or 0.3 percent, to $7,500 a metric ton as of 11:57 a.m. local time. It has risen 0.1 percent this week.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery rose 1 percent to $3.42 a pound. Copper for December delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.2 percent to close at 69,910 yuan ($8,848) a ton. Chinese prices include 17 percent tax and 2 percent duty.
China accounts for a fifth of global copper demand. Imports last month were 174,931 tons, the customs office said. Imports were 226,430 tons in September last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Lost Consumption
The country probably will consume about 3.8 million tons this year, a 5.6 percent increase from a year ago, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., which advises the government on industry policies.
Copper has quadrupled in the last five years, and traded on the LME at a record $8,800 a ton on May 11. Some users have switched to cheaper materials, and the resultant lost consumption may rise to 400,000 tons this year, up 77 percent from last year, Peter Kettle, research director at U.K. industry consultant CRU, said in London on Oct.9.
The 225,000 tons lost last year from substitution was 1 percent of world demand and three times what was lost in 2004, Kettle said at a seminar organized by the London Metal Exchange. Stainless steel and plastics are benefiting the most, he said in an interview.
Copper going up?
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Copper 'virtual deficit' emerges
New institutional funds flowing into the copper market have resulted in a historic shift in the relationship between prices and stocks, according to Bloomsbury Mineral Economics (BME), the metals consultancy.
The copper market has developed into a hybrid that is part industrial metals and part investment vehicle.
Investment demand has created a "virtual deficit" in the futures market, equivalent to 250,000 tonnes, which acts as a more powerful influence on prices than any slight rise in inventories.
However, BME stressed there was no speculative bubble in copper prices.
This was shown by the narrowing in the spread between cash and three-month prices that purely speculative flows would have increased.
Instead, copper's price behaviour had been altered by "remorseless" pressure from investment buying, mainly via commodity index funds that hold about $105bn in futures, equivalent to about 600,000 tonnes of the red metal.
The recent growth in the popularity of structured notes has injected another $10bn into the market, with up to 300,000 tonnes being held as call options.
BME said there was now a "triple deficit" stretching across the copper market from concentrates to refined metals to the futuresmarket.
The deficit in the copper concentrates market is expected to be the largest ever in 2006 at 330,000 tonnes, due partly to weak mine production.
Mine production has been lower than expected due to strike action at La Caridad, Cananea and Escondida.
BME cut its estimate for mine production this year to 14.87m tonnes from 15.22m tonnes in April. This is well below the International Copper Study Group's current forecast of 15.17m tonnes for 2006, effectively the industry consensus.
For 2007 the situation is similar, with BME forecasting output of 15.86m tonnes, down from 16.16m tonnes in April and well below the ICSG forecast of 16.20m tonnes.
BME also said the refined copper market would remain in deficit this year at 300,000 tonnes and in 2007 at 100,000 tonnes with just a tiny surplus emerging in 2008.
Chinese consumption growth in 2006 has been revised up to 2.5 per cent instead of a decline of 4 per cent. West Europe consumption is expected to increase by 9.5 per cent compared with an earlier estimate of 7.5 per cent. The slowdown in the US housing market is expected to reduce consumption by 0.7 per cent this year, whereas a rise of 1.5 per cent was previously forecast.
Strategic stockpiles of refined copper are expected to be depleted by the end of 2007 with little opportunity for rebuilding before the next global recession.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/17/2006 : 18:14:38
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Not directly nickel and copper news, but good to consider.
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The Daily Resource 10/17/06:
……Silver bull Ted Butler had some interesting observations in his column on Silverseek.com yesterday. “The total world economic output (GDP),” he wrote, “runs more than 45 trillion dollars annually. It has been growing at close to 5% annually, for the past few years, or more than $2 trillion per year. Without natural resources (energy, foodstuffs, all metals and other commodities), there wouldn’t be a world economy …
“Yet in a $45 trillion world economy,
the total annual cost to the world for all the copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and silver consumed (plus gold, although gold is not industrial) is only $315 billion.
Please think about that for a moment.
The cost of these metals is less than 1% of the total world economy.
Yet, without these metals there would be no world economy.
And this is after all of these metals have at least doubled from low price points, with some up 3, 4, and 5-fold.
“My point here is simple – the price tag to the world economy for the metal in question, even after the dramatic increases over the past few years, is small.
That is not to say prices can’t or won’t come down at some point, but at less than a 1% cost to the world economy, they don’t have to come down because the total cost is excessive or onerous.
Add in the growing demand, for as far as the eye can see, and you have the basis for this being my choice for the best asset class [in which to invest] …”
And in an ominous supply development for all metals, Bolivian President Evo Morales on Sunday announced his plans to nationalize all of that country’s mines.
…………………It was a banner day for the base metals, on Monday, as all climbed well into the black. Copper started moving higher during the pre-dawn hours and never quit, finishing near its intraday high at $3.5361/lb., up 13˝ cents. Nickel, yet to take a breather, had another huge, record-setting upmove, soaring past $15.50 to close at its intraday high of $15.6338/lb., up 54˝ cents. Zinc followed along, busting through $1.80 and ending at its intraday high of $1.8047/lb., up 9˝ cents. Aluminum coattailed, adding more than 2 cents to $1.2209/lb., while lead tacked on just over 2 cents, to $0.7196/lb.
Nickel continues to dominate base metal conversations.
Bloomberg reported yesterday that, “Nickel rose to the highest in at least 19 years as a blockade at two mines owned by Eramet SA on the Pacific Island of New Caledonia limited supply of the metal used to make stainless steel.
“Eramet's New Caledonia smelter, the world's largest plant producing ferronickel, an alloy used by stainless-steel makers, needs ore from the mines to replenish inventory, said Pierre Alla, chief executive officer of the French company's Le Nickel- SLN unit.
“Most of the price gains are from [the] supply disappointment at Eramet,” said David Thurtell, a London-based metals analyst at BNP Paribas.
Eramet has advised the market that they have only about 10 days worth (!!!!!!)of ore left to process at their smelter,
but are hopeful that access to their closed mine will be accomplished this week. Bloomberg reported that strikers locked the gates to a second mine yesterday morning.
While LME inventories added 192 tons of nickel yesterday, raising stockpiles to 4,476 tons, they are still “critically low,” Thurtell added.
Nickel prices were showing about a 10% backwardation last Friday, according to the latest figures.
“The market is stretched to the absolute limit,” Jim Lennon and Adam Rowley, London-based analysts at Macquarie Bank Ltd., said in a report.
They also discerned no sign that stainless steel producers have bought too much nickel.
And further supply constraints were reported by Stainless Steel & Metals News: “Potentially, a bigger threat [than the mess at Eramet], is the normal maintenance schedules some of these mines and smelters have skipped to take advantage of high prices.
Mines, in general, having been running all out now for well over two years and a catastrophic failure with such tight inventories, could panic the market.”
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/17/2006 : 18:45:32
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excerpt
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Nickel climbs to 19-year high as mine blockade curbs supply
'Critically Low' Inventory
Nickel inventory in warehouses tracked by the LME added 192 tons, or 4.5 percent, to 4,476 tons, the exchange said in a daily report.
Supplies are still "critically low," Thurtell said.
Stockpiles have plunged 87 percent this year and are equal to
less than two days (!!!) of global consumption.
The Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group estimates demand will rise 10 percent to 1.37 million tons this year.
Production will be 1.35 million tons, the group said Oct. 6.
"The market is stretched to the absolute limit," Jim Lennon and Adam Rowley, London-based analysts at Macquarie Bank Ltd., said in a report.
There's no sign that stainless steel producers have bought too much nickel, they said.
Nickel for immediate delivery on the LME was $2,880 a ton more than the benchmark three-month price on Oct. 13. The premium, known in the metals market as a backwardation, was less than $2,000 a ton at the end of September. When supply matches or exceeds demand, spot prices usually are cheaper than futures.
Copper
Copper for delivery in three months gained $80, or 1.1 percent, to $7,540 a ton on the LME. The contract for December delivery advanced 2.15 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.435 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short position in Comex copper futures by 8 percent to 13,287 contracts in the week ended Oct. 10 from a week earlier, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. A short position is a bet on price decline.
Miners, producers and other commercial users were net-long 15,011 contracts, an increase of 3,073 contracts, or 26 percent, from the previous week, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report Oct. 13. The LME doesn't report similar data.
Also on the LME, aluminium increased $6 to $2,641 and zinc gained $35 to $3,825. Lead added $13 to $1,505. Tin rose $50 to $9,825.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2006 : 20:27:14
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World nickel market in 70,000 t deficit in the first eight months
The global nickel market was in deficit by 70,000 metric tons in the first eight months of 2006, with reported stocks around 36,000 tons lower, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
This compares with a 51,000-ton deficit for the January-July period reported last month.
Mine production stood at 911,000 tons, 5.1% above the same period of 2005.
Refined production was fractionally below the comparable total for 2005, with increases in European and Canadian output and the re-emergence of the Philippines as a producer more then offset by lost production in Oceania, the WBMS said, without giving a total production figure.
World demand was 37,000 tons higher than in the first eight months of last year. The WBMS makes no allowance in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
In August, world production was 104,400 tons and demand 119,200 tons.
More nickel news
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New Caledonia Union to Meet Oct. 20 to Discuss Strike (Update2)
excerpt
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Striking workers in New Caledonia, the fifth-largest nickel producer, that have disrupted work at Inco Ltd.'s Goro project and Eramet SA's mines, will meet on Oct. 20 to discuss the future of the four-week strike.
............The general strike restricted ore supply to Eramet's ferronickel plant, the largest in the world, and slowed construction at Inco's $2.15 billion nickel project.
Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust-proof steel, have more than doubled this year, and reached the highest in at least 19 years this month due to the strike.
``A considerable amount of nickel resources is held at New Caledonia and Indonesia,'' said Tony Robson, an analyst at Sydney-based Global Mining Research.
``We're seeing the social and political issues in these places rearing their heads.
This will tighten up the shortages of global nickel supply.''
............The union wants the territory, which is smaller in area than New Jersey and has 25 percent of the world's known nickel resources according to the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, to spend more on social programs, Nea said.
Eramet, the biggest producer of nickel on the island, cannot access two of its four mines because of a blockade by workers, Pierre Alla, chief executive officer of the company's New Caledonian unit, said in an interview today.
Of its remaining two mines, one is operating at 60 percent capacity, and the other at 25 percent, he said. That's lower than what he said on Oct. 16. Its smelter, operating at two- thirds capacity, received a shipment of ore yesterday, he said. The company has about 10 days ore reserves, he said.
Minimum Level
``We need more ore after the end of next week, we're working the plant at a minimum level,'' he said over the phone.
The company has received notification that 80 percent of workers at one of its blocked mines want to return to work, and is awaiting for police action to clear the blockade, he said. For the other mine, about 15 percent of workers have indicated they want to return to work.
``Everyday more people are coming back to work,'' Alla said.
The 2,000 labor union members are protesting against Inco's employment of overseas workers to build Goro, Nea said in French through a translator.
``There is a global shortage of skilled workers which is felt even more acutely in New Caledonia with its population of 230,000 people,'' said Jeff Zweig, deputy general manager at Goro, in an e-mail reply yesterday. ``In order to execute a project of this size and complexity, a significant number of skilled workers are required.''
Eramet only employs local workers, Alla has said previously.
Mining companies worldwide are competing for resources such as labor, equipment and raw materials to expand capacity to meet surging demand led by China. Construction costs for projects have jumped as much as 30 percent.
Inco has also faced demonstrations this year by a local activist group, Rheebu Nuu, which has said the mine and plant may cause environmental damage. The activist group today said in an e-mail that it plans more demonstrations.
It has also filed an injunction against the construction, which will be heard in French court next week, Rheebu Nuu said. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/19/2006 : 17:30:58
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This may effect prices, but demand reamins strong for Nickel, regardless
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Eramet says largest New Caledonia mine resumes work
Eramet SA, which operates the world's biggest ferronickel plant in New Caledonia, said workers returned to work at its largest nickel mine in the Pacific island after police cleared strikers.
Three of the company's four mines in the French-controlled territory are now operating and Eramet is "hopeful" of resuming normal shipments to customers next week, Pierre Alla, chief executive officer of Eramet's Le Nickel-SLN unit said.
A general strike by the New Caledonian Confederated Union of Workers calling for higher mining taxes is in its fourth week. Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust-proof steel, have more than doubled this year, reaching the highest in at least 19 years this month due to the strike.
"This will relieve the situation on the ore supplies," Alla said by phone. "Ninety to 95 percent of the workers have come back to work at the mine."
Eramet had 10 days of ore reserves left for its smelter, and was operating it at two-thirds capacity, Alla said yesterday. The company received an ore shipment from its mines yesterday, and expects another shipment tomorrow, he said today.
One of the company's mines is still blockaded, he said. It increased production at another mine to about 70 percent, up from 60 percent indicated yesterday, and the last mine continued to be operating at 25 percent capacity, he said today.
Eramet declared force majeure on nickel deliveries to its Asian customers earlier this month, and was considering doing the same for its European customers last week.
Force majeure is a legal clause that allows a company to miss contracted deliveries without penalty because of circomestances beyond its control. It is invoked when operations are affected by strikes or accidents.
New Caledonia, smaller in area than New Jersey, has about 25 percent of the world's known nickel resources, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 10/20/2006 : 19:21:13
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Friday, 20th October 2006 14:30
Metals - Copper edges up as nickel climbs to new record
LONDON (AFX) - Copper edged up as gains in other metals, specifically nickel, supported the metal and helped offset concerns over the economic slowdown in the US following weak data yesterday.
Nickel rose to a new record peak today above 32,000 usd a tonne. The metal 'remains plagued by an acute stock shortage,' The LME reported another decline in nickel stocks today, saying they fell 96 tonnes to 4,836 tonnes.
Nickel stocks are equivalent to less than one day of global consumption. Further, the metal was plagued earlier this month by a strike at Inco's Goro nickel project in New Caledonia.
The strike has since been resolved but Adams said 'even if production recovers in New Caledonia, the market will still remain tight ... which means all eyes will no doubt remain on LME stocks'.
Turning to copper, which has become the laggard of the base metals complex recently, Adams said in spite of its modest gain at present, he believes the metal is holding back the complex.
The LME said today copper stocks in its warehouses jumped by 2,550 tonnes to 112,275 tonnes, but analysts noted stocks remain extremely tight overall. They are equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.
Copper's problem, they said, is more that it has fallen behind the other metals in the complex recently in part because it is the most sensitive to the economic statistics coming out of the US.
Yesterday, US data showed a shock fall to -0.7 in the Philly Fed business activity index for October, which measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. Analysts had expected a rise to +7.8.
Man Financial analyst Ed Meir despite tight fundamentals, funds are 'be holding back from piling back into copper' as they prefer to keep a 'wary eye on the largely neutral to negative economic stats coming out of the US'.
At 2.05 pm, LME copper for 3-month delivery
climbed to 7,685.00 usd a tonne against 7,660.00 usd at the close yesterday, while nickel surged to 32,250.00 against 31,700.00 usd.
Zinc climbed to 3,980.00 usd against 3,945.00 usd, aluminium was flat at 2,741.50 usd, tin edged down to 9,925.00 usd against 9,950.00 usd, while lead was up at 1,507.50 usd usd against 1,500.00 usd.
maytaal.angel@afxnews.com
ma/cml
COPYRIGHT
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The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News.
AFX News and AFX Financial News Logo are registered trademarks of AFX News Limited
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If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/20/2006 : 19:30:01
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OK, now the stockpile of nickel is One days supply.
It looks like our nickel hoarding may pay off for us sooner than we thought.
Chinese metals production, not how much was mined, but how much was melted down for consumption.
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China copper production jumps 21.4% on year in January-September: National Bureau of Statistics
China's copper output rose 15.1% on year to 248,300 metric tons in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
January-September output totaled 2.16 million tons, up 21.4% on year, it said.
Following is a table showing China's base metals production in September and during January-September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Metal – Sep(tons) – Change(on yr) – Jan-Sep(tons) – Change(on yr)
Copper 248,300 +15.1% 2,162,700 +21.4%
Lead 248,700 +14.8% 1,959,900 +16.7%
Zinc 272,500 +17.3% 2,251,100 +14.3%
Tin 11,023 +1.2% 103,580 +23.1%
Nickel 9,688 +74.1% 74,918 +10.9%
Aluminum 802,700 +19.8% 6,637,600 +18.5%
Alumina 1,178,200 +68.5% 9,510,100 +53.0%
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/21/2006 : 00:05:22
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China is feeling the pinch of nickel‘s price. Will prices be effected? Stay tuned…….
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High nickel prices hit China
Chinese demand for imported nickel has fallen as world prices touch record highs, traders said Thursday.
Importers in China, which consumes more than 15 percent of the world's nickel,
were trying to take minimum amounts allowed by their 2006 contracts with overseas suppliers.
World prices for nickel, which is used in stainless steel and other metals as an anti-corrosive additive, hit an all- time high of US$31,950 (HK$249,210) a tonne Monday.
"We have sold nickel in the LME because we might not bring in the contracted shipments," a merchant in Shanghai said, referring to contracted nickel for delivery in 2006. "Domestic prices are lower."
He said costs of importing spot nickel had reached about 320,000 yuan (HK$315,040) a tonne for delivery to Shanghai and that was below the 299,000 yuan offered by the country's dominant nickel producer, Jinchuan Group, in the city. Other sellers were asking about 301,250 yuan in Shanghai.
Traders said domestic availability of spot refined nickel had increased because high prices were hurting demand from stainless steel and plating plants that had not been able to pass on increased raw material costs to their customers. "Small and medium-sized private plants are having hard times," the merchant said.
Spot refined nickel for production of stainless steel was trading at premiums of around US$300 a tonne over world prices to Chinese ports, compared with US$250 to US$350 for imports under 2006 contracts. In Hong Kong, high-grade nickel used in stainless steel mills and plating plants was trading at premiums of US$800 to US$1,100 over world prices, against US$700 to US$1,000 for yearly shipments in 2006, local dealers said.
China's imports of refined nickel rose 4.4 percent from a year earlier to 59,861 tonnes in the first eight months of this year. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2006 : 12:36:11
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Although this is commentary and not news, the fundamentals should be considered as far as copper and nickel prices and demand are concerned.
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Confusion Creates Opportunity
There has never been a greater level of uncertainty, confusion and downright misinformation regarding the metals markets.
Confusion over the outlook for base metals has led many investors to simply exit the sector, pushing down the prices of many companies. While there is a lot of talk, and many headline-grabbing quotes, there is very little in the way of comprehensive research and analysis behind the opinions being thrown around.
I have participated in five metals-oriented investment conferences in the past six weeks, putting me in touch with many leading experts in this field. Opinions from those experts, in presentations and informal discussions, cover a broad range.
While there is considerable disagreement, any of those experts who have taken the time to look carefully at the situation agree on a few things:
Demand for metals is growing and is likely to continue to grow;
Actual production of metals has been nearly flat, as new production is largely offset by depleted mines;
Projections of metal production have consistently over-stated reality, as output falls short of expectations;
Inventories of metals are practically depleted;
Speculative investors (primarily hedge funds) have become important players in the metal markets, yet many of those players have only a superficial knowledge of metal market fundamentals.
The confusion regarding the outlook for base metals appears to derive from a couple of points that are not well understood by many analysts.
Having spoken with many experts and considered a lot of information, I am more convinced than ever that the outlook for metals remains bullish. While metal prices may not continue to rise, they will certainly not decline a great deal for a very long time.
Most importantly, the need for new mines grows ever more pressing, adding value to those companies that hold metal deposits. This situation creates an incredible buying opportunity. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2006 : 13:12:20
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Nickel Gains to Highest Since 1987 as Demand Beats Supplies
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel surged, reaching the highest price since at least 1987, as supplies lag behind demand from makers of stainless steel, the biggest users of the metal.
The price of nickel, used as alloy in stainless steel production, has more than doubled this year as inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange plunged 86 percent. Mine output fell short of demand by 70,000 metric tons in the first eight months of 2006, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said.
``When things become short, and there's not much visible inventory, people have to have them,'' Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at London- and Lausanne-based Diapason Commodities Management, said today in an interview from London.
``There's not enough of the stockpiles to see people through.''
Nickel for delivery in three months soared $525, or 1.7 percent, to $32,200 a ton at 4:28 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the highest in at least 19 years. Prices are up 4.7 percent since Oct. 13, the fifth straight weekly gain.
The Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group has forecast a 10 percent jump in demand this year to 1.37 million metric tons. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME dropped 96 tons, or 2 percent, to 4,836 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report.
Inventories are equal to less than two days of global consumption.
The shortfall of metal sent nickel for immediate delivery to $33,800 a ton as of yesterday, or $2,125 above the benchmark three-month contract. The premium for spot supplies over later deliveries is known as backwardation. In a market with ample supplies, prices of longer-dated contracts are higher than nearby ones to reflect storage and interest costs.
Producers of the metal have benefited from the price rally. Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest nickel producer, said today third-quarter profit soared to a record $701 million as prices jumped 85 percent during the period. Russia's OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel is the world's largest producer by 2005 output.
Nickel output at Inco increased 13 percent during the period, after the company began operations at its Voisey's Bay mine in Labrador and increased production at its Manitoba plant, the company said today. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2006 : 13:20:02
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Copper going down? Part II
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Copper may fall next week on signs China, U.S. demand slowing
Copper may drop next week on signs that demand for the metal is slowing in China and the U.S., the world's largest consumers of the metal.
Consumption of copper in China declined in the eight months to August, the Ware, England-based World Bureau of Metals Statistics said Oct. 18. U.S. industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, the most in a year, the U.S. Federal Reserve said Oct. 17. Demand for base metals including copper moves in line with industrial activity.
Seven of 13 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday and Oct. 18 forecast copper will decline next week. Five expected a gain and one little change.
"We are becoming increasingly concerned with what we see as a manufacturing slowdown," said Mark Lewon, vice president for operations at Utah Metal Works Inc. in Salt Lake City. "I look for lower copper prices soon."
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose $39, or 0.5 percent, to $7,699 a metric ton as of 6:27 a.m. local time. It has risen 3.2 percent this week.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery rose 50 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $3.5145 a pound in after-hours electronic trading. Copper for December delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.2 percent to 71,720 yuan ($9,075) a ton. Chinese prices include 17 percent tax and 2 percent duty.
The decline in U.S. industrial output was larger than the expected drop of 0.1 percent, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 61 economists. It was the first time in more than three years that production had fallen in consecutive months.
Global Oversupply
"Some industrial metals could still correct," Marc Faber, founder and managing director of investment company Marc Faber Ltd. in Hong Kong, said Oct. 17.
Copper has dropped almost 13 percent from a record $8,800 on May 11.
The decline in China's demand for copper triggered a global oversupply of 88,000 tons from January through August, the WBMS said. European demand jumped 17 percent.
A decline in copper prices may be partially mitigated by lower production. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. said Oct. 17 that third-quarter output dropped 11 percent from a year earlier. Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper mine.
Mitsubishi Materials Corp. suspended operations at its smelting unit in Indonesia until the middle of December. It will lose 52,000 tons of output, about a fifth of annual production.
Copper going up? Part II
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China's Jiangxi Copper to boost cathode production next year
China's Jiangxi Copper Co. plans to raise its copper cathode production to 550,000-600,000 metric tons in 2007 by building more plants, a company official said Tuesday.
'Our total production this year is estimated to be around 440,000 tons', Board Secretary Pan Qifang told.
The company's annual copper production capacity will rise to 700,000 tons in 2007 from 430,000 tons this year.
'This is to meet the increasing demand of the metal (in China),' Pan said.
Jiangxi Copper, the top copper smelter in China, Monday posted a net profit of CNY1.5 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30. It said Tuesday that it expects its 2006 net profit to more than double last year's level.
Jiangxi Copper Co. produced 422,000 tons of copper cathode last year, accounting for 17% of the country's total production. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/23/2006 : 18:55:06
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Copper prices up, nickel eyes record highs
By Nick Trevethan
LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose by about one percent in London on Monday, while nickel was looking to return to record highs on threats to mine supply and critically low world stocks, dealers said.
"The market is bubbling away, but things are generally light. We are still digesting last week's moves but I think metals probably want to try and forge a path higher," a London dealer said.
"Aluminium, nickel and zinc certainly all look frothy, but copper is holding shy of the big number at $8,000, There is some forward selling that is keeping a lid on things."
At 1000 GMT three month London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures were quoted at $7,590/7,605 a tonne, versus $7,530 at Friday's close.
Nickel was at $32,300/32,500, up $250 from Friday, when the metal hit a new high of $32,625 on threats to supply in New Caledonia and tight stocks.
"Nickel is a dangerous market. The metal is pretty scarce and dips will be bought until we see a significant rise in stocks," a second trader said.
Stocks of the metal in LME warehouses were 5,148 tonnes, up 318 over the weekend, but 1,866 tonnes are earmarked for delivery, leaving just 3,282 left to support the 1.4 million tonne per year market.
France's Eramet said on Friday a general strike on the Pacific island of New Caledonia was costing it around $1 million a day and had left its Doniambo nickel smelter with some 10 days of feedstock.
Eramet is 60 percent owner of Societe Le Nickel (SLN), which produces around 70,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate a year, some 5 percent of world production. [ID:nL20660136]
LEADING INDICATOR
Last week, nickel, tin, lead and zinc all hit contract highs, despite downbeat economic data from the United States and China that have taken the gloss off metals since they peaked in May.
"The scenario we are looking at is a rotation away from domestic construction and auto manufacturing into commercial construction and infrastructure," Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist, Diapason Commodities Management, said.
He pointed to booming construction sectors in Germany and Japan. "The renaissance of construction in Japan and Germany seems to be picking up after the lost decade of the Japanese slump and the post re-unification hangover in Germany," he said.
"Either we will wake up to the fact that the economic slowdown is worse than we thought and the market is in for a torrid time, or metals are telling us that our theory was right and we should look at base metals as a leading indicator and the economy is picking up again."
In other metals, aluminum was steady at $2,726/2,729 from $2,718 at Friday's close, while tin was flat at $10,150/10,200.
Tin gained as much as 12 percent last week, hitting a contract high of $11,000 after the closure of more than 20 small smelters in Indonesia.
The Indonesian government wants to regulate tin mining in Bangka Belitung Province after a demonstration by hundreds of miners against the closure of three smelters turned violent in early October.
Zinc was at $3,975/3,990, up $5, after touching $4,005 on light fund buying, just $15 short of last week's record $4,020.
Gold was softer, tracking oil , which fell over one percent despite confirmation leading exporter Saudi Arabia was curbing November supplies after an OPEC agreement to cut output.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/23/2006 : 19:15:49
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Granted, the devices mentioned below don’t need huge amounts of copper, but demand is demand, and every demand pushes up the price.
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Copper Slurry Demand on the Rise
Driven by the conversion to copper interconnect materials in the memory sector, demand for copper slurry for chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) is set to increase 26 percent in 2007, according to The Information Network, a New Tripoli, Pa.-based market research firm.
“The conversion to copper damascene by DRAM and Flash manufacturers will be key to the growth of the copper market and hence the Copper CMP Slurry sector,” explained Dr. Castellano, president of the firm, in a statement. “We expect these manufacturers to start significantly increasing the use of copper interconnects in 2007.”
“Already NOR Flash manufacturers have started the migration, and several NAND Flash manufacturers will start using copper in 2007. While Micron Technology has converted to copper interconnects, other DRAM manufacturers will start migrating to copper in late 2007 or early 2008,” he added.
Copper slurry is expected to hold a 45 percent share of the $800 million CMP slurry market in 2007, up from a 37 percent share of the slightly less than $700 million market in 2006.
In the copper CMP slurry sector, Cabot Microelectronics held a 32 percent share in 2005; double that of its closest competitors Planar and Fujimi.
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The Future Is Paved with Copper
Once upon time a future looked bright if it was paved with gold, but in the CMOS wafer production business, copper currently holds the highest status, according to the latest from Semico Research.
The fact that copper is valued higher than gold is particularly evident at 130nm and smaller process technologies. Semico credits IBM for the early development of copper metallization and low-k dielectrics as an alternative to aluminum and oxide.
Short term, the industry is well aware of the new challenges faced as geometries have continually shrunk, and copper simply outperformed as a device wiring system. But the long answer version is far more complex, Semico said.
In the next few years, new 300mm fabs coming online are expected to generate the largest copper layer demand and in the 2007/2008 timeframe, a growing portion of flash and DRAM unit volume is expected to use copper creating demand for copper in memory devices.
With total copper layer demand predicted to grow nearly 170 percent over the next four years, 130nm copper growth will be mainly from expansion and upgrade of existing tool types, Semico said. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/23/2006 : 19:34:37
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India: Copper production jumps 20.98% during April-Sep'06
The total production of copper cathode in the organised sector rose by 20.98 per cent during April-September this year at 2,89,754 tonnes as against 2,39,496 tonnes in the same period last year.
Out of which, the public sector Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL) contribued 16,552 tonnes, the private secor units Hindalco Industries Ltd (HINDALCO) produced 1,36,061 tonnes and Sterlite Industries Ltd produced 1,37,141 tonnes, according to official figures released here.
The toal production of copper cathode during September 2006 stood at 51,182 tonnes out of which HCL produced 2,001 tonnes, HINDALCO 22,858 tonnes and SIL 26,323 tonnes.
Future nickel supply, but it takes a few years to go from test drilling to productive mine
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Metallurgical testing confirms very high-grade nickel concentrate at Nuinsco's Minago deposit
Excerpt
Nuinsco Resources Limited Monday announced positive metallurgical test results confirming that its 100%-owned Minago deposit will produce an extremely high-grade nickel concentrate. The concentrate produced in testing by SGS Mineral Services (Lakefield) graded 27% nickel with a 57% recovery. Higher grades can be produced with a lower recovery.
"We're extremely pleased with these results, particularly the grade of the nickel concentrate which, to our knowledge, is one of the highest grade nickel concentrates in the world," said President Brian E. Robertson. Nickel recoveries are comparable to open pit nickel mines with similar head grades, such as BHP Billiton's Mt. Keith nickel mine in Australia. The testing also demonstrated the potential to increase recovery from the tailings stream through metallurgical optimization work which is expected to be done in 2007 as part of a feasibility study."
The high concentrate grade is due to the presence of millerite which contains a very high percentage of nickel (64.7%) and the low sulphide content of the deposit. In addition to the 27% nickel grade, the concentrate contained 1.30% copper, 8.77 g/t palladium, 3.67 g/t platinum, 0.35 g/t gold, 6.0 g/t silver and 0.38% cobalt. Magnesium oxide (MgO) content was 9.5%.
The full scoping study is scheduled for release in mid November.....
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2006 : 18:42:31
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If the facts are true, this information may counter-balance any metals recession
that many are predicting.
China in a Bull Shop
…………..Much of chatter recently focused on “unsustainable” growth in China. This is said to prove the point that commodity prices have to fall.
We look at metals and energy commodities as individual cases (and so should you) but some general clarifications have to be made. There is too much erroneous information out there and too many analysts comparing Chinese oranges to North American apples and proclaiming them equal. There are several parts to the bear case and we’ll touch on each briefly:
1) Unusual Length
We find it surprising that this one comes up any more but it does. We won’t know just how long China’s (or India’s or …) secular expansion lasts until it’s come to an end. What we do know is that if it looks like recent periods of above trend growth in the region, namely Japan and South Korea, it will last for at least 25-30 years.
This is not wild eyed optimism. Similar growth periods moving through mass industrialization in both Europe and North America had similar time frames. That is about how long it takes to move to and through the process and to upgrade infrastructure (both public and private) to the level where it becomes sustainable. There is absolutely nothing unusual about the length of the China expansion and we expect the one just starting in India will fit the pattern as well.
2) Unusual Strength
Another common concern is that the growth rates being experienced by China are so high that they must denote an overheating economy. Again, there is no evidence to support the idea that growth rates are unusually high, especially if one lops a percent or two off the “official” numbers, as most observers do.
China’s growth has averaged about 9% over the past 20 years. An impressive number, but not unusual under the circomestances. During their own periods of rapid industrialization and economic development other Asian countries managed the same feat. Japan grew at an annual rate of 8% for 30 years (1950-1980) and Hong Kong and South Korea managed averages of 7.7% and 8.1% respectively for over 35 years from 1960 until 1995. There is nothing “magical” about China’s performance. It is not out of line with its Asian neighbors or, for that matter, with North America during its late 19th - early 20th century industrialization.
3) Zero Sums
Basically, the zero-sum argument holds that any increase in commodity usage is merely a diversion of resources from other countries. In other words, China is acting as a giant assembly line, which is partially true, and most of the “usage” is simply parts and sub assemblies that are moved from other places to be fitted together and shipped out again.
It’s easy to see the political appeal of this theory. Job losses and trade deficits can be blamed on cheap labour and westerners, especially Americans, can smugly assume that any gains made are just accounting fiction that involved some level of cheating.
Whatever the emotional appeal of this theory it doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny.
Yes, there is a lot of assembly and remanufacturing going on in China but that is not the main area of commodity consumption.
A boat load of DVD players or kid’s shoes does not contain a lot of metal.
Power lines, wiring, and sewer pipes do.
That is where the bulk of the consumption ends up.
It is not substitution; its addition. More to the point, it’s additions to infrastructure and durable goods.
It’s not stuff that will get recycled in two years. Economics is not a zero sum game. If it was, all attempts at development and economic betterment would be pointless. And North Americans would still have the living standard of their great great grandparents.
4) It’s inherently unstable
This argument is based on concerns about economic imbalances and overinvestment. It’s another popular one with politicians which usually leads to them blaming the US Current Account deficit on “excess saving” elsewhere on the planet. Excess saving?
Although this argument sounds the silliest it’s ironically closest to the truth. One of the most interesting outcomes of our study of periods of rapid growth was the apparent underlying cause. It’s not some form of selfless Asian togetherness or good karma or a form of government suited to whipping up the populace into a homogeneous production line. It’s savings. Period. High levels of savings were the most consistent predictive data across all the economies that saw extended surges of growth in the past 50 years.
High savings levels that allow for high investment levels at a relatively low cost of capital are the secret to the success of one Asian tiger after another. All of the countries noted earlier in this article have and had extremely high levels of savings in relation to GDP. Most of them range from 30-40%. That’s a level unheard of in the West and it easily explains the high capital formation and enormous levels of investment. Why do they invest so much? Because they can.
It’s All About Savings
Like its predecessors, China has seen surging savings levels in recent years. There was a dip during the Asian Crisis in the late 1990’s but the rate moved back up to the 40% level in the past five years. Based on current rates the strong growth profile of China is expected to continue for some time.
Western economists have warned about these levels. They assume they must be too high and that they imply overinvestment. We see no reason to assume there is less “dumb money” in Asia than anywhere else but, in the end, it doesn’t seem to matter much. China, like the US, has an economy that is efficient (some would say ruthless) about punishing firms that build the wrong things at the wrong time.
The important thing is that the money is there to keep the investment coming. It’s also very important to note that most of the savings are domestic. Yes, China is the poster boy for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) lately but most of the funds still come from domestic sources or from nearby Asian neighbors.
So far, there is no evidence that savings rates are slackening. Chinese companies are generating profits that can continue the party, though their return on capital is lower than the West. Again, this makes sense. When there are huge pools of money looking for a home those funds have to and are willing to accept a lower return. Its supply and demand. It’s also something we shouldn’t be complaining about. All those “excess savings” help explain the relative popularity of US Treasuries and America’s ability to hold down real interest rates.
One final promising note on savings rates deserves a mention. India, most people’s choice for the next country to see a growth lift off, is seeing its own rapid increase in savings rates. It started much later than China’s but India’s domestic savings rates has moved through 30% in the past year or so. While there are some growth impediments to deal with like an overweening bureaucracy the evidence is that savings alone will ultimately trump this. As with China, India’s growth surge will include intensive commodity usage. Evidence suggests that the savings rate alone is the best predictor and it’s pointing to a longer and stronger boom.
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Nickel & copper news. (ongoing)
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