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Ardent Listener
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 Posted - 06/05/2006 : 18:33:41
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Nickel may be added to Russia's strategic deposits list. From a story of today's 6/5/06 Kitco base metal page. You must be logged in to see this link.
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Edited by - Ardent Listener on 06/10/2006 08:26:05 |
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ImperialFleet
Penny Pincher Member
USA
217 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2006 : 19:20:03
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You must be logged in to see this link.
“Ultimately, the Fed can flood the system by buying any kind of asset, or even dropping bank notes from helicopters" -Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
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4841 Posts |
 Posted - 06/05/2006 : 20:00:23
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Thanks.
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If you can conceive it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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n/a
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143 Posts |
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Ardent Listener
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4841 Posts |
Posted - 06/10/2006 : 08:27:56
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No Ballcopper, it's not a good link. It's an excellent link! I put it in my favorites. Thank you.
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If you can conceive it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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Ardent Listener
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4841 Posts |
Posted - 06/13/2006 : 13:25:10
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Good news! Though it was a small gain, nickel was up 0.28% today. Just remember, it was nickel that was the light at the end of this dark tunnel for the metals.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 06/26/2006 : 18:29:54
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NewsMarketsIndustriesStocksFundsETFsIdeas & ScreeningNickel set for further strength as LME stocks fall
Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:32am ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] By Martin Hayes
LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Nickel prices are near May's record highs and look set to remain strong through to next year in a tightly supplied market.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three months prices <MNI3> were around $19,500 a tonne on Friday, steady from Thursday levels and against a peak of $23,000 a month ago.
The market is tight, with LME warehouse stocks at their lowest since September 2005 and the cash/threes benchmark backwardation at $880/930, near 13-month peaks of $1,000 a tonne.
Although this acute tightness is set to ease in the coing months, the market is still heading for a significant supply/demand deficit this year, analysts said.
"We went from a situation last year when the market was in surplus, as stainless-steel producers cut production, to where we will see a large deficit as demand is strong," Adam Rowley of Macquarie Bank said.
"We are going to see a large deficit of around 16,000 tonnes this year," he said.
Annual production and consumption is in the region of 1.2-1.3 million tonnes.
Nickel's main end-use is in the manufacture of stainless steel -- some two-thirds of annual consumption -- and this sector has been bright recently, traders said.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 06/26/2006 : 19:15:17
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You are here: Home > Business > Article Symbol Lookup
Go to a Section:Top Business NewsBanking & FinancialConsumer ProductsHealthMediaTechnologyTelecomUPDATE 6-Nickel, copper gain after huge merger
Mon Jun 26, 2006 12:51pm ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+]
(Updates with COMEX prices, New York copper rally)
By Nick Trevethan
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Nickel and copper made big gains on the London Metal Exchange on Monday after Phelps Dodge announced a $40 billion buyout for two Canadian miners, suggesting that the company believes metals prices will stay high in the longer term, analysts said.
Phelps Dodge (PD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it would acquire Inco (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Falconbridge (FAL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) in a deal to form the world's largest nickel producer and second-largest copper producer. [nWEN0061]
"From the price they are prepared to pay, you have to infer that Phelps Dodge believe that (metals) prices will stay strong. It's the only way they can justify these sorts of numbers," a London mining analyst said.
Traders, however, questioned the link between the news and copper's rise.
"I can't see the rationale," a trader said. "It's relatively low volume, and some people are trying to push it up ... copper
(is always) waiting for an excuse to go one way or another."
At the end of the kerb session, copper for delivery in three months <MCU3> was at $7,000 a tonne, up more than 3 percent from Friday but almost $2,000 below May's record peak. Continued...
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 06/30/2006 : 11:45:09
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Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:44 pm Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Live Spot Prices
SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 6 hrs. 22 mins.
change since 19:00 London Time
Price: US$/lb
Copper ¬ Jun 30, 12:31
Bid/Ask 3.3660 - 3.3886
Change +0.0363 +1.09%
Low/High 3.3206 - 3.4794
Charts
Nickel ¬ Jun 30, 12:02
Bid/Ask 10.0569 - 10.1023
Change +0.1663 +1.68%
Low/High 9.8906 - 10.1355
Charts
Aluminum ¬ Jun 30, 12:33
Bid/Ask 1.1577 - 1.1623
Change +0.0491 +4.43%
Low/High 1.1095 - 1.1645
Charts
Zinc ¬ Jun 30, 12:02
Bid/Ask 1.4560 - 1.4696
Change +0.0680 +4.90%
Low/High 1.3880 - 1.4923
Charts
Lead ¬ Jun 30, 11:48
Bid/Ask 0.4468 - 0.4491
Change +0.0063 +1.42%
Low/High 0.4337 - 0.4496
Charts
Uranium ¬ June 26, 2006
Ux U308 price: 45.50
Change from
previous week +0.50
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/01/2006 : 20:26:50
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Commodities: Nickel price spikes as warehouse supplies plummet
By Katy Watson
Published: June 30, 2006
LONDON Nickel jumped to a three- week high Thursday, spearheading a rally in metals, on expectations that global demand from manufacturers would outpace supplies from the world's smelters and mines.
Inventories of nickel in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged 70 percent this year to 10,548 tons, the exchange said, equal to less than three days of global use. Credit Suisse said this month that demand in 2006 would exceed output by 15,000 tons.
"There's no question that fundamentals are looking pretty attractive for nickel," said Tony Warwick-Ching, an analyst at the London-based consultants, CRU International. "The markets are still saluting that."
Nickel for delivery in three months rose $650 to $21,050 a ton in London. It later closed to $20,750, a rise of $360.
Stainless steel production is soaring in Asia on demand for the metal used in construction, kitchen appliances and cutlery. Global stainless steel output will rise 8.9 percent to 26.4 million tons this year, led by a 10 percent gain in Asia, the International Stainless Steel Forum said this month.
Other metals, like aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and copper, also gained.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for September delivery surged 4 cents to $3.321 a pound.
Gold rose on speculation that higher energy costs would stoke inflation, increasing the metal's appeal as a hedge against accelerating prices.
There is increasing talk about inflationary pressures with crude oil up more than $1, said Frank McGhee at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago.
"That's helping gold," McGhee said.
Gold futures for August delivery rose $7.90 to $588.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Crude oil rose above $73 a barrel in after an Energy Department report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Crude oil for August delivery rose $1.33 to $73.52 a barrel in New York.
LONDON Nickel jumped to a three- week high Thursday, spearheading a rally in metals, on expectations that global demand from manufacturers would outpace supplies from the world's smelters and mines.
Inventories of nickel in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged 70 percent this year to 10,548 tons, the exchange said, equal to less than three days of global use. Credit Suisse said this month that demand in 2006 would exceed output by 15,000 tons.
"There's no question that fundamentals are looking pretty attractive for nickel," said Tony Warwick-Ching, an analyst at the London-based consultants, CRU International. "The markets are still saluting that."
Nickel for delivery in three months rose $650 to $21,050 a ton in London. It later closed to $20,750, a rise of $360.
Stainless steel production is soaring in Asia on demand for the metal used in construction, kitchen appliances and cutlery. Global stainless steel output will rise 8.9 percent to 26.4 million tons this year, led by a 10 percent gain in Asia, the International Stainless Steel Forum said this month.
Other metals, like aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and copper, also gained.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for September delivery surged 4 cents to $3.321 a pound.
Gold rose on speculation that higher energy costs would stoke inflation, increasing the metal's appeal as a hedge against accelerating prices.
There is increasing talk about inflationary pressures with crude oil up more than $1, said Frank McGhee at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago.
"That's helping gold," McGhee said.
Gold futures for August delivery rose $7.90 to $588.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Crude oil rose above $73 a barrel in after an Energy Department report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Crude oil for August delivery rose $1.33 to $73.52 a barrel in New York.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/03/2006 : 17:13:06
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Agri-Biz & Commodities - Metals
Copper may spurt on China factor
G. Chandrashekhar
Support from declining inventories
Mumbai , July 2
Following less hawkish than expected Fed comments, commodity prices continued to extend their gains further across the board with crude oil, copper and gold moving higher. In addition, market fundamentals are supportive.
It is obvious, Fed hike and comments have soothed concerns over the impact that the inflation/growth trade-off might have on commodity demand, observed an analyst.
Leads surge
Indeed, copper has led the surge higher. Closing near at $7,300 a tonne on Thursday (up 5.8 per cent), the metal shot up to trade above $7,500 on Friday.
Declining warehouse inventories continue to support the market.
The upward movement is not surprising because the medium-term fundamentals for the base metal are supportive.
While technical analysts have been calling the end of the bull market in copper for some time now, demand-supply situation favours an upside to prices.
The demand side looks positive, while supply uncertainties continue to weigh on the market.
Prime Mover
It is no more the US, but China, with its huge appetite, which is the prime mover of the base metals market.
Those closely watching developments in the Chinese economy assert that demand drivers in the country are only getting stronger (infrastructure and construction sector) and that the copper market there is tight.
The Asian giant is world's largest consumer and has contributed to more than 60 per cent of the growth in demand over the past three years.
The decline in China's imports of copper in the first half of this year means a substantial drawdown of inventory there.
Gold's move
The second half could, therefore, witness a huge demand surge for raw material (in a tight supply situation) with its implication for prices.
More dovish than expected Fed statement and associated dollar weakness (fell by 2 per cent against euro) spurred gold to make significant gains not seen since early June with cash prices moving well above the psychological $600 an ounce to around $614/oz at the close in London on Friday, up from Thursday's late quote at $594/oz in New York.
With lack of strong support on a commodity fundamental basis, gold is likely to continue to be influenced by non-fundamental or external factors.
Conflicting views
Further dollar depreciation and a move back up in inflation expectation are needed for it to sustain its price gain.
Although conflicting views about growth prospects in the second half and interest rates emerge, economic data over the next few weeks will become a decisive factor.
Some economists believe, growth will remain firm in the second half and core inflation will continue to rise, leading the Fed to tighten rates higher.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/04/2006 : 18:45:51
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Copper futures contracts hits daily limits
SHANGHAI: The prices of copper futures contracts in Shanghai surged to intra-day limits yesterday for the second time in a week, a strong indicator that the market's correction since mid-May is coming to an end.
Copper for delivery in September the most-traded contract closed at 65,020 yuan (US$8,127) a ton yesterday, up by 3,090 yuan (US$386) from last Friday's closing.
The current price compared to around 55,000 yuan (US$6,875) in mid-June when market correction on the strengthening US dollar brought down the price. Prior to the correction, copper futures surged to record highs of around 85,500 yuan (US$10,687) in mid-May, driven by both strong demand from developing countries such as China and buying by funds looking for good returns.
"By the third week this month, copper will reach 68,000 yuan (US$8,500) a ton at the Shanghai exchange)," predicted Wu Bowen, a trader at the Jinpeng Futures Brokerage Co.
Copper and other commodity futures started picking up mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's statement last Thursday, which indicated further interest rate increases may be unlikely, said analysts.
It boosted the federal funds rate by a quarter of a point to 5.25 per cent last Thursday, the highest level in more than five years. But it said further interest rate increases "may yet be needed" to fend off inflation.
On the domestic front, the Yanggu Xiangguang Copper Co a new copper plant located in East China's Shandong Province confirmed recently it is to delay production until the middle of next year, which could lead to a reduction of the nation's copper supply by 200,000 tons per year.
Source: China Daily
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/06/2006 : 17:04:30
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By Nick Trevethan
LONDON (Reuters) - Base metals rose sharply on Thursday, copper by as much as 6.5 percent and nickel hitting a new record peak as funds returned to the market, dealers said.
"Wednesday saw the funds selling but today they are back buying. It is all about the weight of money," a base metals dealer said.
"We see markets heading higher, but investors will be more cautious than at the start of the year. The funds are more risk averse than they were before May when prices peaked so I don't see a repeat of the rush of money that carried us to the highs."
London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures for delivery in three months were $480 higher at the close at $7,850 a tonne. In electronic trade copper peaked at $7,870, moving towards the May 11 record $8,800 peak.
"I think there are certain investors out there who are determined to see prices higher today. Nickel has been performing well over the last few days which is bullish," Sempra Metals economist John Kemp said.
Nickel was $23,545 a tonne at the close, up from $22,750 at Wednesday's close and just below an earlier record high of $23,600.
"We are entering a period of higher prices, but people have been reluctant to buy," Chris Eibl, head of trading at Tiberius Asset Management, said.
UPSIDE TREND
"The trend is moving faster and faster to the upside. People will try to jump on and will chase prices higher. We are overweight in copper, nickel and zinc and we are not changing."
Zinc was $140 higher at $3,390 and aluminium closed at $2,600 a tonne, bouncing 4.8 percent after losing nearly 3 percent on Wednesday, to end at $2,480.
"Aluminium recovered after some Japanese buying early on. The fall in LME stocks also reignited buying and it looks like $2,500 is the floor," UBS analyst Robin Bhar said.
Stocks of aluminium, prized for its light weight and corrosion resistance, dropped 6,475 tonnes overnight to 764,300.
Analysts polled in Reuters mid-year base metals price survey forecast aluminium prices would slip in 2007, as greater supply from China and lower alumina prices offset smelter closures elsewhere due to high power prices.
Copper prices also were expected to fall next year from current levels as growth rates slow and new production comes onstream, but would remain well above long-term average prices.
"We are focusing on the fundamentals but external factors are also important," Bhar said.
"Oil, gold and currencies are affecting base metals."
Oil held near record highs on Thursday, supported by fears over Iran's nuclear programme and expectations of a drop in U.S. gasoline stockpiles as the summer season gets into gear.
U.S. crude for August, which hit a record $75.40 a barrel on Wednesday, was $74.88.
Gold rallied higher as the dollar weakened. The euro was firm at $1.2754 and equity markets also rose.
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If you can conceive it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
Edited by - Ardent Listener on 07/06/2006 17:07:01 |
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Ardent Listener
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4841 Posts |
Posted - 07/07/2006 : 17:46:56
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You must be logged in to see this link.
Copper stockpile to be quietly reduced
7 July 2006
China's State Reserve Bureau may be quietly trying to unload some of
its older stocks to cut its overall inventory, the South China
Morning Post reported, citing industry sources. The sources said the
bureau had offered 62,400 tonnes from stock built up in the 1970s
and 1980s. The strategy is a departure from the bureau's approach
last year when it staged high-profile copper auctions in an effort
to push down prices and increase supply after it built a large
overseas short position amid speculation it did not have enough
copper for delivery, driving world copper prices to a record high of
US$8,800 a tonne in May from less than US$4,000 in November last
year. Industry officials and analysts in China said the bureau had
settled its liability for the short position - which might have been
as large as 300,000 tonnes - with overseas brokers and was reviewing
its copper stocks.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/07/2006 : 18:16:08
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7 July 2006
Metals mixed; Copper falls while nickel at high: LME
Source: Dow Jones
See also
Base Metals Board
Base Metals CatalogLondon Metal Exchange metals were mixed Friday with investors opting to take profits on Thursday's rallies in copper and aluminium while the remainder finished in positive territory.
The strongest intraday gains were seen in LME nickel, which pushed to a fresh record high of $24,100 a metric ton Thursday as investors took advantage of a bullish technical chart and ongoing tight supply situation.
LME warehouse stocks of nickel have fallen dramatically since the start of the year in line with growing demand from stainless steel producers. Stocks fell another 204 tons Friday to 9,462 tons compared with just over 37,000 tons at the beginning of 2006. Nickel prices finished late kerb at $23,890/ton, up $345 on Thursday's afternoon kerb price.
Given the continuing pattern of LME warehouse drawdowns and the large canceled warrants ratio, which currently stands at 37%, it's "no wonder nickel managed to comfortably exceed the previous record high," said Triland Metals Ltd.
Copper prices fell $120 to $7,730/ton at the afternoon kerb as fund's booked profits on Thursday's steep gains. Prices moved slightly higher in post-kerb trading, last trading at $7,742.50/ton, down 1.7% on the previous afternoon kerb prices.
Fund liquidation also sent aluminium prices lower. Prices ended down $22 on the previous afternoon kerb prices at $2,577/ton.
Zinc and lead prices gained on previous kerb levels, ending up $55 at $3,440/ton and $10 at $1,040/ton, respectively. Zinc marked lower in post-kerb trade, last trading at $3,420/ton, while lead gained $10 to $1,050/ton.
3 months metal (prices in dollars a ton)
Bid – Ask, Change from Thursday PM kerb
Copper 7730.00-7740.00, Dn 120.00
Lead 1040.00-1045.00, Up 10.00
Zinc 3440.00-3450.00, Up 55.00
Aluminium 2577.00-2580.00, Dn 22.00
Nickel 23890.00-23895.00, Up 345.00
Tin 8650.00-8675.00, Up 100.00
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/13/2006 : 16:58:57
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Wednesday, 12th July 2006 16:24
Metals - Copper breaches 8,000 usd/tonne, nickel touches new record UPDATE
(Updates prices, adds detail)
LONDON (AFX) - Copper prices breached 8,000 usd a tonne to touch their highest levels in six weeks, boosted by reports of a looming strike at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile.
Nickel meanwhile touched a new all-time record at 26,600 usd a tonne, spurred by dwindling LME stockpiles and reports that stainless steel demand in China has remained strong.
At 3.59 pm, LME copper for 3 month delivery was at 8,160.00 usd a tonne against 7,900.00 usd at the close yesterday, while nickel was at 26,400.00 usd against 25,500 usd.
'A big part of copper's recent strengthening is attributable to renewed fund buying on the back of growing concern about what is going on with the negotiations at Chile's Escondida,' said Man Financial analyst Ed Meir.
Unions at Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, have reportedly made no progress in talks with management to negotiate a new labour contract to replace the old one which expires in August.
The union is asking for a 13 pct pay rise and bonuses linked to high copper prices, while management at the mine has come back with a 1.5 pct offer and a much smaller bonus package.
Management will present a its last offer on July 25, after which the union will vote on a strike if it decides to turn down the offer. In the meantime, a 'go-slow' initiated by workers seems to be continuing, said Meir.
Analysts said copper and zinc will likely set new highs as their fundamentals are very tight, but added the base metals sector as a whole is takings its lead from stellar performer nickel.
The LME said today nickel stocks held in its warehouses fell by a further 174 tonnes to 8,244 tonnes today, sufficient for just three days' forward cover. Stocks are now at their lowest levels since August.
UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar said very little nickel stock is being attracted to warehouses while deliveries are occurring at a wide variety of locations in Europe, indicating robust demand.
'Stainless steel production has recovered sharply this year and, as a result, mills have moved to restock nickel ... stainless steel accounts for 70 pct of nickel consumption', he said.
Base metals reached all-time records in May, supported by historically low inventory levels and strong demand, but a sell-off soon ensued, prompted by fears continued interest rate rises by the Fed would crimp growth and demand.
Meir said he sees the current price strength continuing 'for some weeks longer, at least until concerns about slowing growth surfaces again in the statistics.'
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/14/2006 : 14:32:17
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Table based on July 14, 2006 closing base metal prices (expressed in pounds):
Copper $3.7266/lb 0.1210 Zinc $1.5384/lb 0.0159 Nickel $12.7459/lb 0.5745
Description Denomination Metal Value Metal % of Denomination
1959-1982 Cent (Copper) * $0.01 $0.0248003 248.0000%
1946-2006 Nickel $0.05 $0.0659329 131.8600%
1982-2006 Cent (Zinc) * $0.01 $0.0087802 87.8000%
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/17/2006 : 19:07:26
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Table based on July 17, 2006 closing base metal prices (expressed in pounds):
Copper $3.6269/lb 0.0997 Zinc $1.5021/lb 0.0363 Nickel $12.9954/lb 0.2495
Description Denomination Metal Value Metal % of Denomination
1959-1982 Cent (Copper) * $0.01 $0.0241383 241.3800%
1946-2006 Nickel $0.05 $0.0657962 131.5900%
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realcent
Forum Admin
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246 Posts |
Posted - 07/25/2006 : 13:21:00
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Article link: You must be logged in to see this link.
Quotes from article:
"LONDON (Reuters) - Copper prices rose 3.5 percent
on Tuesday as the market focused on supply disruptions and
shrugged off a fall in China's metal imports and a big rise in
output at the world's number one miner."
"If this turns out to be accurate then it could have a big
impact on the fundamentals, especially as other reports suggest
workers at Escondida are not confident they will reach an
agreement with the company,"
Doug
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For more copper cent hoarding information check out:
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/25/2006 : 14:24:15
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I suppose sooner or later the miners will go back to work. How will that effect base metal prices? I stll believe we will see short term base metal prices fall some what. Over the long term though I don't see how they can be held down.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/27/2006 : 17:27:32
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Commodity price boom to end
By Shane Wright
July 26, 2006
THE commodity price boom enjoyed by Australia's miners is about to end with a thud, a new forecast report has warned.
Access Economics, in its latest report on mineral prices, said it expects major retreats in prices for many commodities, including nickel, copper, alumina and lead.
"The consensus among those surveyed ... is that this party - the best Australia has seen in a generation - is drawing to a close," it found.
Access is tipping nickel prices to fall about 45 per cent between now and 2008, with slightly smaller falls for copper, cobalt, alumina, zinc and tin.
"Prices of base metals (excluding zinc), alumina, cobalt, oil and coking coal are expected to fall from their June quarter peaks over the forecast period.
"Prices are expected to fall by more than 15 per cent in each case, while copper prices are expected to fall by more than 40 per cent."
Lead, platinum and zircon prices are tipped to fall by about 20 per cent.
Access said while prices for most industrial commodities peaked in May, this was partly due to speculators and hedge funds.
It warns this demand could prove fickle, slipping away quickly and leaving prices in free fall.
One of the key exceptions, however, is in the precious metals area.
"The prices of both silver and gold are expected to continue to increase over the forecast period," it found.
"Gold is likely to benefit from continued tension in the Middle East and North Korea, while silver is expected to continue to be supported by the strength in gold prices and by strong industrial demand."
However, Access has left open the possibility that its forecasts may be on the low side.
It said continuing demand from China may keep a floor under prices.
"Commodity forecasters, including Access Economics, have called the price peak before now, and they've been consistently wrong," it said.
"That is because Chinese demand continues to surprise on the upside, while new supply continues to surprise on the downside."
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill
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If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/28/2006 : 19:51:53
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Nickel Climbs on Stockpile Drop, Report of Strike at Inco Mine
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel futures climbed the most in two weeks in London after Reuters reported a strike at a mine operated by Inco Ltd., the world's second-biggest nickel producer, fueling concern about declining stockpiles.
Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 8.6 percent today to 4,272 metric tons, the lowest since July 1991. Miners at Voisey's Bay, which is due to produce 54,000 tons of nickel contained in concentrate this year, stopped work after the United Steelworkers Union and Inco management failed to agree on a labor contract yesterday, Reuters said.
``At the moment, the market is very sensitive to the news,'' said Roy Carson, a trader at Triland Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies trading on the floor of the London Metal Exchange. The ``latest stock decline obviously caused this buying response.''
Nickel for delivery in three months rose $1,175, or 5 percent, to $24,875 a metric ton as of 10:33 a.m. in London, the most since July 17. The metal has gained 84 percent this year.
Voisey's Bay started in September 2005 and employs about 400 people, according to the mine's Web site. Inco spokesman Steve Mitchell in Toronto said he wasn't able to confirm or deny the report. Company spokesman Bob Carter at Voisey's Bay didn't answer a call from Bloomberg News requesting comment.
Copper headed for its biggest weekly gain in two months, rising $120 to $7,640 a metric ton, amid concern labor disputes and mine repairs may cut supply in Chile, the world's biggest producer of the metal.
Santiago-based Codelco, the world's largest producer of copper, may need as many as three months to repair its largest mine after a rockslide. Workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine are due to vote today on whether to strike next month. They are seeking a pay increase 13 percentage points above inflation. Management is offering 1.5 points higher than inflation.
`Far Apart'
Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, is producing 40 percent less metal after miners began arriving later for work, union spokesman Pedro Marin said July 26. BHP denies that. Copper futures have risen 74 percent this year.
At Escondida, ``the two sides are far apart on wages issues, and it probably will come to strikes,'' said Albrecht Gohlke, a fund manager at Hauck & Aufhaeuser Privatbank in Munich. ``This will provide the impetus to drive copper prices higher.''
Among other metals on the LME, lead gained $20 to $1,090 a metric ton, zinc was $60 higher at $3,290, tin rose $25 to $8,375 and aluminum advanced $6 to $2,527.
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Ardent Listener
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Posted - 07/30/2006 : 19:05:33
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osted: 2006-07-27 23:58
No commodities peak?
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Presenter: Lindsay Williams Guest(s): Wayne McCurrie
Virtual Metals chief executive Jessica Cross - listening to Wayne McCurrie from Advantage Asset Managers saying commodities are at a peak - calls Classic Business Day to disagree with his view
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: After two years I still get a bit of thrill when a chief executive says: “I was listening to your show last night.” Jessica Cross from Virtual Metals was listening to Wayne McCurrie from Advantage Asset Managers talking about commodities maybe peaking and she’s on the line.
JESSICA CROSS: I could understand Wayne McCurrie’s analogy of likening what’s going on in commodities to the dotcom bubble - to say is this a boom-bust type of thing - and you can see why he’s thinking that if you take a look at copper for example. But really the facts don’t match up to that - what we are saying is prices stronger for longer. Really there’s a remarkably tight market, and it’s the same with nickel and obviously aluminum as well. Where you’ve had years of low prices - which meant that the primary producers failed to put much capital investment in to bring on new supply - what they didn’t realise is that demand was going to be so strong, particularly into China and the Far East. So you’ve had falling inventories - now there’s not much consensus about how much inventory is around, but we seem to think that the exchanges in terms of copper are only holding about two weeks of consumption.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Yes, and I saw from the LME the other day that nickel is about two days consumption?
JESSICA CROSS: Exactly, so you’re looking at extremely tight markets. So they’ve found fundamentals as to why this is not a dotcom bubble. If you take a look at the demand scenario for the next four or five years there’s tremendous growth in China where there’s a lot of investment into infrastructure, and fixed investment - and superimpose that it’s all happening ahead of the Beijing Olympics because they’re putting that infrastructure in now - but there’s also nine million Chinese urbanising every year, requiring housing white goods etc. This is having a huge impact on the amount of copper that China is importing.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: So you’re bullish of base metals. Of course being South African what about platinum and gold - do you think that same bullishness will be translated into the precious metals?
JESSICA CROSS: If you look at the base metals - and you see the funds are coming in on the basis that there are tight fundamentals - then the precious metals begin to benefit as well, particularly the platinum group metals (PGMs) where there’s a very strong industrial base.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Perhaps you could be part of our next commodity review, especially when you consider the fundamentals with one or two weeks of copper, and one or two days of nickel.
JESSICA CROSS: There’s nine days of coal reserves in China - it’s scary stuff.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: It is quite scary - if there’s a supply disruption these things go up another 10% to 15%.
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Posted - 08/04/2006 : 13:55:20
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Updated: New York, Aug 04 14:54London, Aug 04 19:54Tokyo, Aug 05 03:54 USAUBZFPGRHKIMJPLNSMIND
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Copper Leads Gains in Metals on Looming Strike, U.S. Jobs Data
Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper gained the most in four weeks, leading a metals rally on speculation that a looming strike at the world's biggest copper mine will reduce supply and after the dollar fell following a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
Workers at the BHP Billiton mine in Chile, which produced 8.5 percent of the world's copper last year, said they will strike Aug. 7 unless they get a better pay offer. U.S. employers added fewer jobs than expected in July and the unemployment rate climbed, the government said, causing the dollar to fall to a one-month low, making it cheaper to buy dollar-priced metals.
``Any production that's taken offline will have an impact.'' said Jimmy Quinn, a trader at A.G. Edwards Inc. in New York, who also said U.S. jobs data ``plummeted the dollar,'' which caused metals prices to rise.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose $440, or 5.9 percent, to $7,930 a metric ton as of 2:47 p.m. local time. The metal was up 3.4 percent for the week, heading for the fifth weekly gain in six weeks.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for delivery in September gained 15.05 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $3.64 a pound at 9:29 a.m. local time. In both London and New York, a close at these levels would mark the biggest one-day percentage gain since July 6.
Among other metals for delivery in three months on the LME, nickel gained $1,100 to $25,500 a ton, aluminum added $41 to $2,540, lead rose $20 to $1,137, tin was $150 higher at $8,350 and zinc advanced $140 to $3,460.
The U.S. dollar fell to a one-month low against the euro and dropped versus the yen after a report showing the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected. Employers added 113,000 jobs last month after an increase of 124,000 in June. That was less than the 144,000 projected by the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate rose to 4.8 percent.
Copper has risen 80 percent this year in London, and traded at a record $8,800 on May 11. The rally has been supported by labor disputes at mines in Mexico and Chile. Demand will beat output this year by about 200,000 tons, UBS AG forecast in July.
Inventory Gain
Consumers of the metal, such as makers of power cables and pipes for plumbing, may use stockpiled copper to fill the shortfall. Inventory monitored by the LME gained 1.2 percent to 102,825 tons today, the exchange said. The inventory is equal to less than three days of global consumption.
BHP, which is based in Melbourne, needs to close the gap with the labor union's wage demand for a raise that would be 13 percentage points above inflation, union spokesman Pedro Marin said. The company's last offer, made Aug. 2, was 3 percentage points over inflation. Marin said a new offer needs to be made by today at the latest to avoid a strike, because the union needs time to vote.
The planned strike is ``really supporting the market,'' said Neil Buxton, managing director of London-based GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd. ``In bull markets you get more strikes; it's always been the case.''
Copper yesterday fell 4.2 percent in London on speculation interest rate increases by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will slow economic growth and curb metals demand.
The market was ``overreacting,'' and U.S. interest rates are of greater importance, Buxton said. Federal Reserve policy makers will meet Aug. 8 to decide on the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks.
Futures Forecast
Ten of 15 analysts, investors, traders and consumers surveyed Aug. 2 and yesterday by Bloomberg News said copper will rise next week. Four said it will drop and one forecast little change.
A strike ``will naturally drive the price of copper up to test the highs made in May,'' said Mark Lewon, vice president of operations for Utah Metal Works, a scrap-metal recycler and broker in Salt Lake City.
More wage negotiations are due at mines including Teck Cominco Ltd.'s Highland Valley in Canada. The management at Antamina, a Peruvian mine owned by BHP Billiton and Canada's Falconbridge Ltd., is talking with workers, said mine spokesman Gonzalo Quijandria. Chile's state-owned miner Codelco is due to negotiate with employees later this year.
``Even if there's no strike (at Escondida), and prices lose this source of support, there are the Highland Valley, Antamina, and Codelco labor-contract negotiations still to work through,'' said Andy Cole, a London-based analyst at Metal Bulletin Research. ``There's still plenty of support for prices out there.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Katy Watson in London at kwatson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 4, 2006 09:58 EDT
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Posted - 08/10/2006 : 17:20:23
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'Fatigue' in metals group could yield quality stock picks
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '10-AUG-06 05:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006
RENO--(Mineweb.com) Although copper prices reached a four-week high Wednesday due to the Escondida labor disputes, commodities investors may soon discover that "an air of fatigue, if not despondency, has enveloped much of the metals group."
While "commodity prices are excellent across the board, and appear well-supported," Citicorp analysts wrote, the mining industry is not without its problems. In its "Metals & Mining Prospects" report released Wednesday, Citicorp declared that "we do not expect prices to rise from current spot levels (gold excepted)."
As the challenging macro environment cools, however, it will not prove hostile for metals. In fact, Citigroup believes that it will favor "quality, best-of-breed names, over the turnaround stories that dominated in the early, commodity momentum phase." Citigroup analysts picked Newmont Mining among gold mining stocks, and Arch Coal, CONSOL Energy and Foundation Coal among the coal mining stocks.
Worldwide copper is struggling with a series of supply-side outages, as a dogfight has developed during copper ore contract negotiations between mining and smelting companies in Asia. Theses events follow a series of at least 16 shortfalls totaling 317 kT year to date, according to Citigroup analysts.
In the meantime, nickel is suffering similar woes as mergers and acquisition activities among nickel producers may be ending, and workers settle in for a potentially months-long strike at Canada's massive Voisey's Bay nickel mine.
COPPER COMMODITIES
Since total exchange copper inventories hit a high at the beginning of March, they have declined 21.8% to currently stand at 162 kT. Citigroup explained that the total stock ratio, including estimates of metal held by producers and consumers, still stands at a "extremely low level" of 2.6 weeks consumption vs. 4.6 weeks as of last December. Citigroup estimated at least 330 kT of copper has been lost to supply disruptions since the beginning of this year. In addition to labor disputes, copper markets face "falling grades worldwide, a dearth of large new mines in the near term, water shortages in northern Chile, and a leftward lurch in LatAm politics," according to the metals analysts.
Citigroup forecasts that exchange copper inventories will not be restocked to a meaningful level until 2009. Meanwhile, they predict that the current market deficit will continue through this year, roughly balance out in 2007, and again fall into deficit in 2008. "Our sense is that the question of demand destruction and substitution is more relevant than replacement value and the timetable for new mine capacity adds."
Copper-smelting margin negotiations generally take place around the end of the year although some contracts are currently being negotiated. NikkoCitigroup analysts suggested earlier this month that "the major obstacle to (smelter) negotiations is that BHP Billiton is campaigning for benchmarks that would support contract terms of greater advance to mining companies."
Soaring copper smelting costs (TC/RCs) prompted Escondida's operator BHP Billiton to propose restructuring terms on new smelting contracts to remove "price participation" (PP). Japanese and Chinese smelters have opposed this move because it would impact margins. However, Citicorp doubts that BHP Billiton will be successful in abolishing PP in its contracts. "If the smelters are successful in retaining price participation in the new TC/RC structure," Citigroup wrote, "this implies that industry participants expect supplies of copper concentrate to increase, with negative implications for the copper price."
TC/RC is the amount paid by mining companies to have their copper ore processed by a smelter into a saleable metal. Since copper ore supply is not keeping abreast of demand growth, the spot market TC/RC is declining. PP is a smelting margin added to TC/RC, which fluctuates in tandem with the LME copper price, according to NikkoCitigroup of Japan. A rise in copper price improves margins, while a fall in the price depresses earnings.
"While we expect that demand for copper, particularly in developing nations, will continue to expand steadily," NikkoCitigroup metals analysts suggested, "we think that delays in copper mine development and realignment in the industry are leading mining companies to adopt strategies aimed at boosting their share of output, so that, while their price bargaining position may actually improve, it is not likely deteriorate."
NICKEL COMMODITIES
Citigroup asserted that "nickel miners are running flat out, and even a modest supply-side outage could have profound implications." The great risk to nickel over the long term is under-supply and substitution, they added. In the short-term, the initial impact of the strike on the new Voisey's Bay nickel/copper mine will be somewhat muted by large stockpiles and in-process inventories. However, Brazil's CVRD has announced it will delay its two nickel development projects until at least 2009 due to permitting and capital cost overruns.
Year to date, nickel prices have increased 110% due to higher stainless steel production. Meanwhile, LME nickel inventories have fallen 84% to stand at 6 kT since they hit a high at the beginning of February. "Debate continues as to whether the nickel market is truly in balance, or whether tight supplies are capping demand and forcing substitution through the price discovery process," the analysts wrote.
Citigroup said stainless steel demand and aerospace and gas turbine nickel applications will keep nickel demand strong. The analysts' nickel forecast for 2006-2008 are $7.68/lb, $7 and $4.50. Quarterly price forecasts are $8 for the remainder of this year.
GOLD COMMODITIES
Citigroup analysts feel "gold is at the crossroads, having corrected sharply from highs above $714 per ounce set mid-May. ...Gold is now wrestling with classic questions on inflation, interest rates, and currencies--and new ones on the cyclical context, asset class correlations, the physical market and the role of miners."
The analysts remain positive on gold, "based on a mix of supply/demand and macro/monetary catalysts." Citigroup gold forecasts for 2006-2008 are $632/oz., $700 and $750. "We would not be surprised to see a test of the gold highs of $850/oz," they added.
COAL COMMODITIES
While admitting that coal company earnings were dismal, Citigroup remains supportive of coal markets and "believe there is a positive, multi-year thesis for the coal group, based on mining capacity constraints, transport bottlenecks, think utility stockpiles, the possibility of natural gas returning to the $10/MMBTU range, and above-trend global steel production."
With the hot summer temperatures spiking energy demand even higher, analysts feel coal inventories are likely to see a significant drawdown. Meanwhile, metallurgical coal markets appear to be tightening with a production push at steel mills.
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Posted - 08/14/2006 : 20:16:42
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SEOUL, Aug 14 (Reuters) - POSCO Co. Ltd. (005490.KS: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's fifth-largest steel maker, is struggling to cover nickel short positions on the London Metal Exchange, the Wall Street Journal reported in its Monday edition.
The South Korean steel maker is short 10,000 tonnes of nickel against LME positions, the newspaper said, adding that the company is finding itself forced to keep rolling them forward at ever greater expense.
POSCO is also 20,000 tonnes short on the physical nickel market, the Journal reported.
Officials at POSCO could not be immediately reached for comment.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
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Nickel & copper news. (ongoing)
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