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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 04/29/2007 : 17:20:27
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Why silver may shine brighter than gold. - Investment U
Dear Investment U Reader,
It’s been a wild ride in the equities markets lately. After selling off in February, the Dow has rallied above 13,000 for the first time ever.
But the ride in the commodities markets has been just as wild, especially for gold and silver…
Widespread selling here has been indiscriminant and almost reckless, followed by impressive rallies that seem to indicate gold will be at $2,000 overnight.
When the dust settles, many of the commodities that were performing so well before the extreme volatility may be even more attractive at their new levels. And here’s one of the commodities I like most…
Why Silver May Shine Brighter Than Gold
Silver has always stood in the shadow of the gold market. Clearly, from a dollar standpoint, it will most likely never be more precious than gold.
But here’s the thing: Silver is as much an industrial metal as it is a precious metal. Most people are unaware that it has many unique properties that make it ideal for use in the photography, technology, defense, and electronic industries.
Frighteningly, there are only about 200 million ounces in above-ground silver available. This is primarily due to current supply/demand trends, but the situation is getting worse.
In fact, industrial demand has been outstripping mining supply for the past 15 years, driving above-ground supply to historically low levels. And many experts believe the above-ground silver supply is projected to shrink to a critically low level in 2010, and at a very rapid pace.
This has been a major factor for the rising prices of silver to date. At $13.38 an ounce, the metal is up more than 225% since 2002.
I expect this trend to continue.
Even more disconcerting is the fact that when investors seek to hedge against rising inflation and currency devaluations, investment demand for silver rises rapidly. We are already seeing it…
In only the past few years, investors have poured into silver Exchange-Traded Funds, like the first one that launched, the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV). And there are many more in the works for the next couple of years.
As we move into 2008, the rising global investment demand for silver and worldwide industrial demand will become the key factors driving silver to new highs… wiping the tarnish off of a commodity that was once basically written off by investors as having almost no value.
The times for investors are changing, and savvy ones will at least take a look at silver. It could be well worth it.
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I (Ardent Listener) have always liked silver because of its industrial value too.)
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For good times to come or bad times to come, now is the time to save your copper or nickel coins.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 05/02/2007 : 15:02:48
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It would be easier for silver to double in price then for gold or platinum to do so.
I recall reading in the book "The Money Game" that the company that was considered the next IBM, the one to own, was the one that doubled its sales or value.
The larger companies such as the Dow stocks, because of their size, just simply don't double in sales. There just are not enough consumers to enable most large companies to double sales or increase net worth.
The large companies can increase sales, but to doulbe sales, to increase by 100% compared to last year's sales, that just is beyond the range of almost all big companies.
Small and mid-sized sometimes can do that, and when they do, they become the darlings of Wall Street.
Could silver reach $30 an ounce in a year or two?
It would be easier for silver to double than for gold or platinum.
When gold started to come close to $700, India gold buyers switched to buying silver.
Silver could be the substitute that those of lesser means will buy.
If you can't buy the king of metals (gold) buy the noble prince (silver)
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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Metalophile
Penny Collector Member
USA
320 Posts |
 Posted - 05/08/2007 : 09:59:13
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Here's another potential use for silver: Silvering the back side of thin-film photovoltaic solar cells. This potentially increases the power production by increasing absorption (and therefore conversion) of light into electricity. Below is the article:
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Efficiency boost makes solar cells more affordable
01 May 2007
Solar energy could become more affordable following a breakthrough by UNSW scientists, who have boosted the efficiency of solar cell technology.
The advance could see the price of an installed solar system for an average house fall from around $20,000 to $15,000. Up to 45 percent of the cost of solar cell technology is due to the high cost of the silicon used to convert sunlight to electricity.
Silicon is the material of choice in the electronics industry because of its stability, non-toxicity and ubiquity. However, silicon is a poor absorber of light. In a bid to drive down costs, scientists have moved from using expensive thick silicon “wafers” to cheaper “thin film” cells, containing less silicon.
The disadvantage of these one-to-two micron-thick films is that they convert only eight to 10 percent of incoming sunlight into electricity, compared to the 25 percent efficiency of thicker, more expensive, silicon wafers. Scientists around the world are testing new ways to boost the efficiency of thin film technology, while keeping down costs.
Now, researchers at UNSW’s ARC Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence, led by PhD student Supriya Pillai have reported a 16-fold enhancement in light absorption in 1.25-micron thin-film cells for light with a wavelength of 1050 nm. They have also reported a seven-fold enhancement in light absorption in the more expensive wafer type cells light wavelengths of 1200 nm.
"Most thin-film solar cells are between eight and 10 percent efficient," says Dr Kylie Catchpole, a co-author of the study, "but the new technique could increase efficiency to between 13 and 15 percent."
That's an important advance, she says: "If they're below 10 percent efficient, then you can't really afford to install them, because it would take up too much of your roof area, for example, to power your house." Once the technology approaches 15 per cent efficiency, it becomes commercially viable.
An average house could have its daily power supplied by installing a solar system and panels covering 10 square metres. This system would exclude power for cooking and hot water heating.
The breakthrough, which is reported in the upcoming issue of the Journal of Applied Physics, could eventually see a dramatic rise in solar power’s share of the electricity market. Currently only 30,000 Australian households - out of 8 million - have installed solar panels.
The UNSW researchers have devised a way to deposit a thin film of silver (about 10 nanometres thick) onto a solar cell surface and then heat it to 200° Celsius. This breaks the film into tiny 100-nanometre “islands” of silver that boost the cell’s light trapping ability, thereby boosting its efficiency.
Media contact: Supriya Pillai: 0434 243 371 or Dan Gaffney: UNSW Media Office, 0411 156 015
Metalophile |
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479 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2007 : 10:43:25
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Good info Metalophile!
The price of silver did not always move in lock step with the price of gold.
Recently it has stayed within a narrow range at very near the psychologically convenient 50 to 1.
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The price of silver, is, I believe held artifically low.
The market manipulators have succeeded thus far in preventing a "silver rush".
It appears that they have prevented a silver rush by arbitrage with gold.
When one goes up they use it to buy the other, when it goes down, reverse the process.
This holds the ratio steady and prevents silver from breaking out on its own.
Since it would have to take gold along for the ride, silver is held in check and that helps prevent it from being hoarded out of industrial stockpiles and into the basements of the penny and nickel crowd.
This works qwite well, but it has the unfortunate side effect of reinforcing the psychology of monetary silver.
An entire generation of people are growing up seeing that the price of silver and the price of gold trade within a narrow range.
This makes people think that silver is, "as good as gold".
It lays waist to the claim that silver is an industrial commodity because the price of silver is closely linked to the price of gold and divorced from the price of other commodity metals.
Also:
Silver is the best conductor of electricity but only by a rather narrow margin.
It is the best conductor of heat by a wider margin.
It also is not very subceptable to degredation due to heat fatigue.
This is why silver (or silver alloy) bearings are used in very high RPM continuous use settings, such as:
auto racing, turbines, jet engines, indeed anywhere that heat dissapation is mission critical, and even in hobby applications such as this one:
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Much of this industrial silver is recoverable, but only at a high cost in labor and processing.
Whipping a coin out of your basement is faster and cheaper than recovering silver from used mechanical and electrical devices.
When the pressure on the price of silver becomes too great to contain, the govMints around the world are likely to confiscate our silver for "national security" reasons, ie to put into Military Jet Engines and the like.
Sometimes these confiscations are outright theft by the govMint in qwestion, but more often the govMint buys your stuff at current market value.
Since all they have to do is print up some paper, they get a "steal" at least we get paid, "market value". I doubt very much that such an extreme step (confiscation) would occur PRIOR to a run up in the price of silver. I ASSUME it would take place only AFTER a run up in price. They won't care, they'll just print up some paper and hand it to us.
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Milan Kundera: "The struggle of people against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting."
Gregory Benford: "Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available."
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Edited by - n/a on 05/08/2007 11:06:37 |
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Gresham
Penny Pincher Member
184 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2007 : 16:52:51
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Silver may well increase in price faster than gold. Athiest is right the convineint ratio of 1 to 50 is far above the ratio in the ground of 1 to 17. Add to that the large above ground gold supply and the shrinking above ground silver supply. Plus silver has more applications than gold. Be careful with the application on gold though. There are somethings like gold nanoparticles, single molecular gold electrodes, and gold surface catalysts that only seem to use gold. Also if gold were as plentiful as lead we would use it for tire weights, and anything else that needed an inert heavy object.
The company analogy I think breaks down. Sure for a large company to double in price it needs to double sales or revenue which means that twice as many physical objects need to be designed, produced, delivered and sold. I can see that a small one can do this easier, but for metals it is always supply and demand. |
Edited by - Gresham on 05/08/2007 17:52:34 |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2007 : 22:04:36
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1 to 5. That's the only ratio I accept as rational. When silver reaches a 1:5 price ratio to gold, I will sell my silver. Until then it's undervalued.
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"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
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Edited by - Canadian_Nickle on 05/08/2007 22:05:53 |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2007 : 22:54:58
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Canadian_Nickel
I'm with you, I think that 1:5 approximates the reality of the overall situation.
However, I would sell my silver for less under two (or more?) circomestances.
1. A federal agent at my doorstep with a gun on his belt, a subpoena in one hand, and a check that represents my claim to a wad of paper fiat money in the other.
If he says, "we have evidence here that suggest that you are in possesion of "x" ounces of silver and by federal mandate we demand that you surrender said items to the USA."
2. If I needed it to live on.
I would sell my silver, willingly or unwillingly at various rates depending upon the circomestances, but I agree that until we reach a "Single digit : One" ratio, silver is as you say, "undervalued".
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You must be logged in to see this link.
Milan Kundera: "The struggle of people against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting."
Gregory Benford: "Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available."
You must be logged in to see this link. |
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n/a
deleted
17 Posts |
Posted - 05/09/2007 : 14:11:45
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| i do beleive silver is undervalued .But most the silver we use now is a by product from the copper, gold, mines . We are not really using the true silver mines . so there more out there to get.Time will only tell. |
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Why silver may shine brighter than gold.
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