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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
 Posted - 02/20/2007 : 09:45:46
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Hey guys do any of you know where I can find a chart that shows the updated 200 day moving averages for gold and silver (and any other commodity for that matter)? Couldn't find one on kitco.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 02/20/2007 : 19:03:21
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Sorry, I can't help. May I ask, why 200 days?
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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 18:24:45
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I may have to make my own. If I do, I'll plan to post it here each time I update.
the 200 day dma, and its relation to the current spot price, provides clues as to whether it is a good time to sell/buy.
The guys over at Zeal investing believe in a bull market at this stage you want to buy whenever gold is within two percent of its 200dma...and perhaps sell/perhaps hold when it gets more than eleven percent above its 200dma.
Their recommendations and predictions in 2004, the ones I read, came true so between that and history I am betting they are on to something.
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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 18:50:04
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OK i have roughly calculated the current 200dma for gold by taking snapshots of the spot prices that have existed over the last seven months.
aug 1, 06 $637
aug 15 625
sept 1 621
sept 15 574
oct 1 601
oct 15 586
nov 1 614
nov 15 618
dec 1 649
dec 15 624
jan 1, 07 640
jan 15 627 8069
feb 1 660
feb 15 665
I average the numbers above together (takes about twenty minutes to gather the data and average it).
So the two hundred day moving average previous to 2/21 is around $624.30
678 is spot price, also on feb 21
that is 53 bucks, or 7.8 percent over 200dma
A good time to sell is when you are at 11 percent over the 200dma.
In other words it's not high enough to sell. Wish I'd figured that out before I sold that rand last week at only 6% above the 200 dma!
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DadaOrwell
Penny Sorter Member
99 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 18:55:44
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Using this model you would not want to sell over the next couple weeks unless gold reaches $693 between now and March 7. Of course you'd only get maybe $675 per ounce from a coin dealer.
After march 7 I will probably recalculate and the price will have to be higher to make a good sell opportunity.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 19:55:00
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INTERESTING!
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Burn paper dollars before you melt coins. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 20:12:37
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If gold does go up to $693-$700 per troy oz, forget the coin dealers, put it up on ebay and watch the bidiots go wild, then sit back and enjoy the financial gain fireworks.
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2007 : 23:43:37
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Dada:
I applaud your efforts!
Actually taking the time to run the numbers on your own and then sharing your hard work with us for free, should encite our gratitude.
As to why the 200 day moving average (200 dma) is important, there are several answers.
1. There are many moving averages, the most often cited are the 20 day, the 50 day, and the 200 day. Why not the 14 day, 30 day, and the 365 day? Ah yes, the accidents of history!
2. Moving averages are an inevitable part of any serious analysis of any moving target, bar none.
3. There exist a body of empirical data about moving averages. Over the centuries people have made predictions about prices relative to moving averages, some of those predictions have been wrong, and some have been right.
(ever heard the old saying on the ski lift, "look away!"?
When you are riding up on the lift and you see a "bad" skier, close your eyes,
but
When you are looking at an excellent skiier, glue your eyes to his every move.)
In general, one should read those who have a proven track record of sucessfully predicting the future and AVOID AT ALL COSTS reading those who have a proven record of being repeatedly worng. Those who have the wrong idea about how to snow ski, or how to invest, should never be listened to because they will infect our mind's eye with false images of how to do things.
The 200 day moving average is a proven indicator of the "big picture"
Today's spot price is relatively less valuable.
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Any 200 day moving average charts?
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