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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
 Posted - 01/17/2009 : 08:04:09
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This whole economic crisis has me baffled in many ways. It makes no sense to me that while we appear to be in one of the worst times in modern history with world economic instability, precious metals seem to be lagging in any real respond. Silver seems to be lackluster at best falling like a rock and now climbing out of a deep hole.
I know some think silver has a bigger potential to grow that gold but I am not so sure that is the case.
I think a lot of folks on here would gladly trade all their silver for gold in a heartbeat but I think those deals would be rare. I might be wrong.
Speaking of rare it is nuts to think platinum should be trading so close to gold. If you look at the chart showing prices from 1992 to present the picture seems radical. We are now back to a little above December 04 price levels for platinum. That is just plain crazy! You must be logged in to see this link.
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deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 12:15:04
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gata.org
also whle I wont speak for anyone else on trading silver for gold I'm trading the exact other way around
platinum is too tied to the automotive industry to have any demand right now |
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Edited by - n/a on 01/17/2009 12:16:17 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 12:20:12
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| I don't think it would be too hard to find someone who would be willing to trade gold for silver. I see more physical gold in the coin or bullion shops than silver (dollar for dollar) right now. |
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Think positive. |
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keys
Penny Collector Member
383 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 13:40:25
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While gold and silver logically should be higher (considering the economic crisis going on right now) we must realize that logic has no place in the world of economics or investment.
Logic would dictate that junk bonds of the 1980’s, dot coms of the 1990's and expecting real estate to always go up in price of the 2000's were all illogical ideas, but logic or not, they were the hot investments that hot money flowed into. After reaching their peak of investment value those who invested in the hot investments got burned, as usual.
Logic also has no place on Wall Street. Why should companies that make products and profits, but miss their expected profit projections by one cent, lose 5% of their share price, while companies that turn little or no profits at all, but offer the hottest new electronic gizmo for Christmas, shoot up in price 15% in a day?
Logic seems to be missing in the world of investments.
This does not mean that gold and silver, the logical investments, should be ignored. On the contrary, when inflation kicks in high gear and the masses are running into gold and silver, when the talking empty heads on investment channels are talking up gold and silver, when gold and silver are featured as the star investments on the covers of Time Magazine and Business Week, then will be the time to get OUT of gold and silver since those will be the signs of a PM bubble about to burst.
We are not there yet, not for may more years, its time to buy at the best possible price you can get.
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Stocks, unlike precious metals, don’t shoot up in price unless things are going very well
Precious metals, unlike stocks, don’t shot up in price unless things are going very wrong.
(A key to investing to keep in mind)
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I change with the times-
but like silver coins found in your change
I stay the same.
*****************
The United States of America started out as the new Republic of Rome.
Will The United States of America end up as the New Imperial Rome? |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 14:15:00
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| heck I hope it stays where it's at for a good one or two more years until everyone wakes up, more time to hoard :) |
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phillips24
Penny Pincher Member
USA
142 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 15:06:22
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| What I believe we are seeing is that the markets are responding to a possible deflationary time. That is the worst thing that could happen to the economy right now. Look what happened to silver during the great depression and before during the time when government was creating "price stability" which was in essence forced deflation. I may not be making much sense or be jumping around from one issue to another but if anyone can read between the lines I think they will know what I am trying to get at. |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 17:05:56
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I disagree with anything to do with deflation with all the money that's been recently printed. Inflation (or should I say true inflation not the CPlIE) is rampant
seriously, just read gata.org |
I currently have no signature. |
Edited by - n/a on 01/17/2009 17:06:47 |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 17:28:49
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| Everything right now is schizophrenic. There's no other word for it. Blind panic is the order of the day. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 17:58:06
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quote:
Originally posted by fb101
Everything right now is schizophrenic. There's no other word for it. Blind panic is the order of the day.
I resemble that comment!
And so do I!
But to the topic, only a small portion of the population, perhaps 1% or less is currently on the PM bandwagon. Most people have never thought of PM's as anything other than what jewelry is made of. Keys is right on the money, when PM's become all the rage, be alert and ready to sell.
Of course, at that point who's to say if we'll have a stable currency, so maybe it should be, be ready to barter your PM's for whatever is undervalued at that time.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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knibloe
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1066 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 18:06:04
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But to the topic, only a small portion of the population, perhaps 1% or less is currently on the PM bandwagon. Most people have never thought of PM's as anything other than what jewelry is made of. Keys is right on the money, when PM's become all the rage, be alert and ready to sell.
Of course, at that point who's to say if we'll have a stable currency, so maybe it should be, be ready to barter your PM's for whatever is undervalued at that time.
I agree if the masses start buying pm we should stay one step ahead and trade a portion of ours for tangible goods that are needed for day to day living.
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 18:08:40
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quote:
Originally posted by knibloe
But to the topic, only a small portion of the population, perhaps 1% or less is currently on the PM bandwagon. Most people have never thought of PM's as anything other than what jewelry is made of. Keys is right on the money, when PM's become all the rage, be alert and ready to sell.
Of course, at that point who's to say if we'll have a stable currency, so maybe it should be, be ready to barter your PM's for whatever is undervalued at that time.
I agree if the masses start buying pm we should stay one step ahead and trade a portion of ours for tangible goods that are needed for day to day living.
[/quote]
I was thinking that, but wanted to keep my post brief...for a change.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 18:19:40
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| If or when the masses flock to precious metals then that will be the start of the return to hard money. No need to fear hard money since we will be the ones to be holding it and the rest of the world will be trying to sell their tangible and not so tangible goods to us at fire sale prices. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 18:56:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
If or when the masses flock to precious metals then that will be the start of the return to hard money. No need to fear hard money since we will be the ones to be holding it and the rest of the world will be trying to sell their tangible and not so tangible goods to us at fire sale prices.
I'd like to have a little more hard money first |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 21:57:54
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An old acquaintance of mine owns a hedge fund, what I would assume is a very small fund maybe 75-80M in total assets, or at least before what they lost in the market and in equity due to the Madoff scare.
I met with him last week to get a look into his perspective on things. He mentioned how he wishes he was out of the fund business and into something else. He then took about a 5 second look at a silver chart and promptly mentioned anyone buying silver is an idiot because it is "clearly going down". As I was leaving thinking about what he said all I could think about was backing up the pickup truck and buying as much silver as humanly possible!  |
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wagsthadog
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
565 Posts |
Posted - 01/17/2009 : 23:32:05
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Hi there-
I'm confused as to how people are reacting to the crisis as well, but at the same time, I just keep my mouth shut and hoard what I want to hoard...
As for Platinum, while the price is down, it's almost impossible to find 1 oz PAE's at spot. One guy on ebay was charging $1400 for one. I think it's a mix of people taking a bath on Platinum and trying to get back what they paid for it, or speculators waiting for it to go up again. Either way, it's hard to get.
I'm actually trying to get more in gold and less in silver. I made money on my gold, but I still have a long way before even my break even point on silver : P
wags |
Only when they CAN'T have it, ......THEN they'll want it.
I love Cents. If you get an UNC box, you win. If you get a regular circ. box, you win. If you get a zinc box, you don't lose....so you still win. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 05:33:25
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if you look back, silver has tended to lag gold and moves up only after gold has moved up. so you need to be patient holding silver.
also, at its peak, silver has traded at a 50-1 ratio to gold. that ratio is higher these days - prob. 70 or 80 to 1. so theoretically silver could rise a lot with gold standing still just to get bact to 50-1.
now, 50-1 is an arbitrary level. there is no reason it will get there. on the other hand, there is no reason for it to stop there either. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 12:02:46
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
if you look back, silver has tended to lag gold and moves up only after gold has moved up. so you need to be patient holding silver.
also, at its peak, silver has traded at a 50-1 ratio to gold. that ratio is higher these days - prob. 70 or 80 to 1. so theoretically silver could rise a lot with gold standing still just to get bact to 50-1.
now, 50-1 is an arbitrary level. there is no reason it will get there. on the other hand, there is no reason for it to stop there either.
I'm glad you brought that ratio up. I took $841.05 divided by $11.22 and came up with 74.955437. I didn't realize it was that high. Historically, the silver to gold ratio was as high that 15 ounces of silver would be worth 1 oz. of gold.
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 12:11:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Lemon Thrower
if you look back, silver has tended to lag gold and moves up only after gold has moved up. so you need to be patient holding silver.
also, at its peak, silver has traded at a 50-1 ratio to gold. that ratio is higher these days - prob. 70 or 80 to 1. so theoretically silver could rise a lot with gold standing still just to get bact to 50-1.
now, 50-1 is an arbitrary level. there is no reason it will get there. on the other hand, there is no reason for it to stop there either.
peak of 50-1??? Throughout history silver is valued at approx 1/12 gold
the good news is we've used up so much silver in industry that silver is FAR more rare than gold. c'mon guys the brains on this board should be all up on this stuff  |
I currently have no signature. |
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keys
Penny Collector Member
383 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 13:11:07
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I think the problem concerning silver’s low price is more opinion than fundamentals.
For centuries gold has been the king of metals with silver being at times either the prince or a Duke of metals. Given the choice between silver or gold most would choose gold over silver since gold is perceived to be the more valuable of the two.
The large finds of silver over the centuries (large amounts mined in Mexico, the Comstock Loade) have all increased the supply to the point that there has been more supply than demand.
What is needed for silver’s price to rise is for supplies to really drop off, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% or more. These gradual declines in supply are counteracted by the surplus of silver (cash poor investors unloading silver, scrap silver supply) and keeps the price from increasing. Not until the silver supply makes front page news (or front page news of business newspapers) will we see silver increase in price.
The plus side to all of this is silver is still perceived as cheap and plentiful. This won’t last for much longer, but while it does it makes it affordable for buyers of silver.
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I change with the times-
but like silver coins found in your change
I stay the same.
*****************
The United States of America started out as the new Republic of Rome.
Will The United States of America end up as the New Imperial Rome? |
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keys
Penny Collector Member
383 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 13:20:14
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quote:
Originally posted by CopperSnake
He then took about a 5 second look at a silver chart and promptly mentioned anyone buying silver is an idiot because it is "clearly going down".
Beware the chartists, for they see reality as lines on a graph instead of looking at the reasons behind the numbers.
Charts are a useful tool, but they are only one tool and not even the most important tool ever created.
No one would hire a carpenter who only had one tool in their toolbox, so why do so many rely on investment professionals who only have one tool (charts) to examine market conditions? |
I change with the times-
but like silver coins found in your change
I stay the same.
*****************
The United States of America started out as the new Republic of Rome.
Will The United States of America end up as the New Imperial Rome? |
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n/a
deleted
84 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2009 : 13:49:41
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quote:
Originally posted by keys
quote:
Originally posted by CopperSnake
He then took about a 5 second look at a silver chart and promptly mentioned anyone buying silver is an idiot because it is "clearly going down".
Beware the chartists, for they see reality as lines on a graph instead of looking at the reasons behind the numbers.
Charts are a useful tool, but they are only one tool and not even the most important tool ever created.
No one would hire a carpenter who only had one tool in their toolbox, so why do so many rely on investment professionals who only have one tool (charts) to examine market conditions?
this was exactly why I wanted his opinion, I knew it would be dead wrong  |
I currently have no signature. |
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phillips24
Penny Pincher Member
USA
142 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2009 : 18:17:33
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| I hope keys isn't short for keysneian....j/k I doubt if you were a student of keysneian economics you would even consider what we are doing as practical. I do think that what is going on right now is what the "market" considers as a possible deflation period. I personally believe that the possibility for hyperinflation to happen is most certainly there. The key lies in the velocity of the funds out there. Which is why we are in the "credit crisis". The government has given the banks all this money but they are sitting on it, thus no current inflation risk unless they use the money. The lows in metal are nothing but people covering paper positions on the comex. But soon enough the lie and default of the comex and "spot price" will come and then the wild ride in PM's will begin. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2009 : 18:50:00
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I play with charts - I use them usually to correlate an known trend and try to make some reasonable estimations. They're not bunk, UNLESS (as stated above) they're the only tool you use. But charts like everything else really only tell you what happened yesterday. It takes the supercomputer on top of your shoulders to tell you what's happening tomorrow. Right now, chartists and every other person with a stock mentality is trying to correlate what's going on in terms of what happened before. Everybody wants to catch the bottom. Even those who try to correlate with 1929 are missing the mark completely. Wall streeters are still issuing buy recommendations waiting for this to be over in a week or a month or a year. They've all been trained with the same theories. With their MBAs and high tech tools and all, they're only thinking inside the box they've been told is the real world. They spent all their massive (lol) brainpower learning to repeat the past.
(What's that quote by Ten Bears?)
When all is said and done, we here may all turn out to be dead wrong. It may turn out the MBA's and the chartists are correct.
We don't have any omnipotent view of the world.
But one thing that must be said of the people here is we're doing something very few people are. We're THINKING. With a free will and free thought unencumbered by the thinking within the box mentality.
We're thinking about what we see, not what we've been told to think. And that's the only kind of thinking that counts.
IMHO that makes us all special.
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Edited by - fb101 on 01/19/2009 18:53:53 |
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redneck
1000+ Penny Miser Member
1273 Posts |
Posted - 01/20/2009 : 05:46:20
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quote:
We're thinking about what we see, not what we've been told to think. And that's the only kind of thinking that counts.
How dare you have free thought of your own...!
Report for reprogramming right away...!
> |
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keys
Penny Collector Member
383 Posts |
Posted - 01/20/2009 : 16:50:03
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Thank you fb101 for explaining in greater detail why I don't take much stock in chartists (or anyone who only looks at the markets with only one system.)
It has been said,
When everyone is thinking the same thing
no one is thinking at all.
This seems to be the mantra on Wall Street, follow lockstep with everybody else and you can't go wrong,
or as Adam Smith said in his book 'The Money Game'
"what's everyone else doing?"
Everyone else on The Street is playing follow the leader, not realizing that when the leader goes off the cliff everyone else follows.
Look at mutual funds, stock funds, stocks themselves, they almost all went down.
On this forum we are thinking along similar lines but we are not all thinking the same thing. Some say buy silver, some say buy gold. Some say buy food and supplies, some say sell this buy that. We agree on some things and we disagree on some things but we all bring different ideas to the forum to consider and mull over. We view things differently and we maintain our individuality, something sorely lacking on Wall Street.
As a footnote, rest assured the forum name I chose has no economic connection at all. I just like keys, especially the brass ones that dont fit any locks (melt value and all.) |
I change with the times-
but like silver coins found in your change
I stay the same.
*****************
The United States of America started out as the new Republic of Rome.
Will The United States of America end up as the New Imperial Rome? |
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