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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
 Posted - 12/05/2008 : 13:36:49
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A lot of the metals have already touched 5 year lows. Copper has been resisting a bit and still has a little ways to go. The 5 year low on copper is like $1.00 a pound.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 12/05/2008 : 19:14:02
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demand?
Isn't this another paper market? |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 12/05/2008 : 19:38:39
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quote:
Originally posted by fb101
demand?
Isn't this another paper market?
Is it really possible for the paper market to push down copper the way it appears to be pushing down silver? The size of the copper market relative to the minuscule silver market make that implausible, IMO, given how large the copper market is and how much more paper would have to be out there to push the price so low. I'm thinking that the tanking economy is the real reason behind the plummeting price due to greatly reduced demand. Since copper tends to be primarily an industrial metal, this seems like the most likely explanation. Anyone disagree? |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 12/05/2008 : 20:04:14
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by fb101
demand?
Isn't this another paper market?
Is it really possible for the paper market to push down copper the way it appears to be pushing down silver? The size of the copper market relative to the minuscule silver market make that implausible, IMO, given how large the copper market is and how much more paper would have to be out there to push the price so low. I'm thinking that the tanking economy is the real reason behind the plummeting price due to greatly reduced demand. Since copper tends to be primarily an industrial metal, this seems like the most likely explanation. Anyone disagree?
I can't say I agree or disagree with that Nickelless. Look at the price of oil... I'm hearing $25 oil may be on its way. I'm sure demand is down.... but $25?! Even consider $50 oil now, was it over-priced at well over $100 or under priced now, or both? Industry is slowing down for sure, but it hasn't come to a crawl even here in the rust belt. So was $4.00 copper just some weeks ago over-priced or is $1.37 copper under-priced or once again, both?
It appears to me that the commodity markets can be driven up higher than they should be and driven lower than they should be. If they get higher than they should be and we are along for the ride we cheer. But when they fall below where they should be we talk market manipulation. Manipulation seems to be a two way street in commodites. |
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Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 12/05/2008 : 23:00:15
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| I was just talking to my west coast friend about how something like this must exist out where he lives. The idea was to have a hedge for fuel prices. Interesting link there Nickelless. I will let him know about the site. I am on the east coast and he is paying the same for gas as I am here. Usually gas would be at least 50 cents more per a gallon in California than in the northeast. I think we would be happy as heck paying $1.50 per a gallon again if it got that low. I actually think we have been conditioned now to accept $3/gallon gasoline so sub-$2 gasoline will not be sustained..... |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 12/05/2008 : 23:06:26
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quote:
Originally posted by JerrySpringer
I was just talking to my west coast friend about how something like this must exist out where he lives. The idea was to have a hedge for fuel prices. Interesting link there Nickelless. I will let him know about the site. I am on the east coast and he is paying the same for gas as I am here. Usually gas would be at least 50 cents more per a gallon in California than in the northeast. I think we would be happy as heck paying $1.50 per a gallon again if it got that low. I actually think we have been conditioned now to accept $3/gallon gasoline so sub-$2 gasoline will not be sustained.....
I did a little research this afternoon, and it doesn't look like FuelBank.com is operational yet. Bummer. Here was the new thread I started about it:
You must be logged in to see this link.
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Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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aaron239
Penny Collector Member
USA
260 Posts |
Posted - 12/06/2008 : 13:38:38
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| My homepage is set to Yahoo. The headline story this afternoon was "Gas to hit $1 per gallon?" |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2008 : 08:18:45
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As I understand it, industries were hoarding a bit of metal as prices were rising. Then liquidity suddenly dried up one day and everybody has been scrambling to get and hoard cash ever since. As such, everybody has been selling off all of their excess metals.
So instead of:
mine supply + recycling supply - industrial usage
We have:
mine supply + recycling supply + liquidation - industrial usage
The liquidation factor should be short term and hopefully is about over. Mine supply is decreasing and so is recycling and so is industrial usage (but not by as much as one would guess from the price declines).
Copper price is not manipulated...it is just to big of a market. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2008 : 08:23:02
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quote:
Originally posted by JerrySpringer
I was just talking to my west coast friend about how something like this must exist out where he lives. The idea was to have a hedge for fuel prices. Interesting link there Nickelless. I will let him know about the site. I am on the east coast and he is paying the same for gas as I am here. Usually gas would be at least 50 cents more per a gallon in California than in the northeast. I think we would be happy as heck paying $1.50 per a gallon again if it got that low. I actually think we have been conditioned now to accept $3/gallon gasoline so sub-$2 gasoline will not be sustained.....
If you have a stock account, you can buy UGA. Its stated goal is to track gas prices as closely as possible using futures. So if you spend $2000 on gas in one year and you want to lock in your gas price for next year, buy $2000 in UGA today. After a year, sell it and lock in your profit or loss. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2008 : 09:27:42
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I looked into UGA. I may wait a while to see how low gas can go. Meanwhile, I am holding USO and I may regret it. There is no guarantee that oil and gasoline prices trade in lockstep. Really. Maybe oil prices can drop while refinery shortages happen for gasoline.
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Alpacafarmer
Penny Pincher Member
130 Posts |
Posted - 12/10/2008 : 17:32:23
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| The cost to mine copper is $2.03 a pound so if demand does not increase production will slow and this will cause the price to increase. Many of the big copper mines are still filling contracts that where sold in the $4 a pound range but that should be coming to an end very quickly. My 5 year outlook is copper up, silver up, gold up, oil up, stocks up. Best time to buy is when everyone else is selling. |
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 12/10/2008 : 17:45:07
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| I always tell people who hold metals that when we see a price decrease in the spot price, you still havent lost anything if you still hold the metal. With the case of copper, I am guessing most people here have it in the form of copper cents obtained from coin roll searching at face value. So even if copper goes down to $0.20 a pound, your copper penny is still worth a penny but you would probably have more buying power with it should copper go down that low. IMO, this is the pullback before the big tsunami wave of inflation hits so I am going to continue adding to the hoard. :) |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 12/10/2008 : 17:48:08
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quote:
Originally posted by Alpacafarmer
The cost to mine copper is $2.03 a pound so if demand does not increase production will slow and this will cause the price to increase. Many of the big copper mines are still filling contracts that where sold in the $4 a pound range but that should be coming to an end very quickly. My 5 year outlook is copper up, silver up, gold up, oil up, stocks up. Best time to buy is when everyone else is selling.
I agree about everything except stocks, unless you're talking about mining stocks. I think Wall Street is about to follow the dollar toward collapse. Granted, there's money to be made in certain industries as commodity prices rise and Wall Street tanks, but I'm not optimistic about the trajectory of Wall Street given the state of the U.S. economy, the 70 percent we've added to the national debt the past few weeks and the growing loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar around the world. |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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Frugi
Administrator
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 12/10/2008 : 20:27:54
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****YOU Can quote me on the following******
The US dollar WILL BE devalued by most of it's value by mid 2009. IT IS FACT.
Once this happens EVERYTHING will go back to summer 2008 prices, not for any
other reason except the US dollar will be valueless. Other countries currency will then
have TONS more buying power in the USA, and therefore will lead to much increased (and much needed) spending into the US economy which will thus spur the Wall street markets back up once again. This of course has been put into act by GWB and will continue to be perpetrated by BO. We are currently amidst a dollar rally. Why? To allow room for a steep decline starting in March, 2009 and lasting indefinitely. EVERYTHING will GO much higher than summer 2008 prices, and will continue up.
THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, A SORTING OPPORTUNITY, NOT, NOT a time to sell.
In just several months ALL THIS STUFF will be unaffordable to buy. Why not continue to hoard at your normal pace and buy all the silver you can afford, we are months away from an EXPLOSION in all the markets. I just wish I had the "extra" money to invest in OIL, SUGAR, GM, FORD, & CITI. All great buys right now for the long haul. Copper will rise to more than last summer so keep collecting and saving them. There is more copper to be found (now that many small time hoarders are getting out).
When You must be logged in to see this link. (aka- You must be logged in to see this link.) was started the melt value was just about where it is now. UNDER FACE VALUE for the 1 cent pre 1982 cent, so keep VIGILANT!!!
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Copper down to $1.37--is TSHTF?
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