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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
 Posted - 11/15/2008 : 12:34:36
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I am wondering if we are entering a bubble for precious metals in some way. OK, prices dropped on them substantially since summer, but I am looking for feedback on the "shoe-shine boy" observations you are making in banks and media,etc. I take some comfort in knowing that my searches for coins has some positive results but I also (and this is self-interest to some degree but also general interest in how markets work) am wondering if folks are catching on at a semi-exponential rate to silver coins still existing in the wild. I take myself as an example and my reasons for collecting coins at this stage in my life. I see it all as some kind of hedge because I truly do not believe any paper assets can weather much more turmoil. Also, I believe that the psychology of all this boils down to the quest for bubbles before they deflate. As much as I like to look at my coins, I have a voice in the back of my head saying that these hard money items are only as good as what they can barter for in the open market. I am trying to understand how this market has developed and whether it is going to get real volatile soon.
I'd be interested in you long-time collectors' general observations about where we could possibly be going with the precious metals sector and public awareness of hard money. I tend to believe that things may not be the end of the world as I fear but I do believe that things can get stranger than fiction with our financial standing in the world. Thing is, I have been reading about the blow-up potential in the financial world for several years now. It did not sink in until I developed a critical mass of awareness that seldom does the public get wind of things until panic outbursts drive the herd. You folks can agree that confidence is what keeps most people showing up to work or making plans for their retirements or having kids or just about any other commitment, right?
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2008 : 15:29:32
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I am not sure if this falls under the category "shoe shine boy" advice bit it is food for thought-
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No Mass Mania for Gold Yet -
Less than 1% of Public in Western World Have Invested in Gold
The notion that gold is in a bubble and soon to fall is entirely bogus and peddled by many of the same suspects who have gotten us into this mess with their "don't worry, be happy" brand of economics and personal finance advice. It is likely that less than 1% of the public in the western world (probably as low as 0.5%) has invested in gold and/or silver and we are a long way from mass mania and the mass participation associated with market tops (as seen in stock and property markets in recent months).
When gold is featured on a daily and even weekly basis in the newspapers and there are supplements dedicated to investing in gold and precious metals then it will be time to sell or at least go underweight gold and silver.
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Gold Runs Out In Germany
Risk-averse Germans are turning to gold in troubled times -
but there’s none left.
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Londoners Queue on Sidewalk to Buy Gold in Rush for Money Haven
By Jonathan Browning and Thomas Biesheuvel
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Londoners stood in line outside the largest gold coin and bar retailer in the city's West End shopping district, clogging the lobby and trading among themselves as they sought a safe haven for their money....
.....Waiting to buy coins or bars at ATS, Brijesh Patel said he'd take whatever was available.
``I've never seen anything like it. I'll just get anything, whatever they have left,'' said Patel, a 25-year-old salesman.
``Gold is an indicator of confidence.
When it's disappearing, it shows something is wrong.''
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Jewelers told Gulf News that they are not hoarding gold. But that seems an inescapable conclusion with the retail price of gold matching international spot prices which seem completely out of balance with the true demand situation down in the gold souk.
More than 50 per cent of the population of Dubai comes from India, so the Diwali celebrations - where gold is the traditional gift - are taken particularly seriously. Normally this is a peak season for the jewelry trade-
-but shortages have not been reported before.
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Decide what you want, but this is the news around the world.
Consider the story that less than 1% of the public in the west have gold investments, doesn't exactly sound like a bubble in PMs yet. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2008 : 16:16:02
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We're still getting laughed at.
The pundits are still talking about catching the bottom of the market and literally laughing at the "gold bugs"
When you can't buy what you need with a handful of FRN's there will be a bubble. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2008 : 20:14:44
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IMO, most people will cling to that which is known to them best as long as they can. I hear people talking about what stock they should buy now not only for growth but more so for some kind of protection. The few times I bring up the subject of precious metals it goes well over their heads. On the other hand there are more now that are talking precious metals along with bullets and guns. They don't seem to be doing so to get rich but rather to get prepaired if the worst were to occure.
If we continue to head down this road of paper wealth crisis then I expect we will start to see more and more investors moving that "10%" of their net worth into precious metals. If the crisis get worst then it wil become 25%, 50% and so on. But like rolling a snow ball, the longer it rolls the bigger and faster it will grow. |
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Think positive. |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 19:26:07
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| Only "investor" I've ever seen with 10% of net worth in Gold was a big biker chick with a huge gold ring. Can you believe people don't even ask for investment priced gold and silver at the Royal Canadian Mint gift shop? Strange world we live in. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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ME CO
Penny Pincher Member
USA
199 Posts |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 08:53:06
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| I'm at about 60-40 PM's and cash. Of course my PM's were cheap or from profits and the cash is to continue the hunt or go all in PM's when the hunt is over. I don't think PM's will save us but nicer to look at than paper. HH Mark |
"54/54/2280" |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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oober
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1304 Posts |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 20:05:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by ME CO
I'm at about 60-40 PM's and cash. Of course my PM's were cheap or from profits and the cash is to continue the hunt or go all in PM's when the hunt is over. I don't think PM's will save us but nicer to look at than paper. HH Mark
PMs will store value infinitely better than FRNs will. Tell me again what's good about paper???
I can draw purty pictures on paper! |
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ME CO
Penny Pincher Member
USA
199 Posts |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 20:33:04
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| Paper is also good for buying half dollars to search. There is going to be a fine line when paper is going to be no good at all- hopefully I am all in PM's right before that time. HH Mark |
"54/54/2280" |
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Cody8404
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
602 Posts |
Posted - 11/21/2008 : 13:36:40
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I listen to the news the Fed and government officials keep saying it can't get any worse. Then it does.
Reminds me of Germany and Iraq. The U.S. troops were inside the capitol city, but the governments kept telling thier people, "We are winning. We will defeat them any day now." Right up unitl the time the broadcasters had thier power cut off.
The only thing that is keeping the dollar and stocks and all the rest of the paper being traded back and forth is the faith of the people using it. There is a lot of faith there to keep it going.
Part of it is we want it to keep going. I hope the $20 bill will buy gas so I can get to work. As long as it does I am OK. IF it stops, we are all in trouble. Scares me to death to see it coming. |
Awake, O kings of the earth! Come ye, O, come ye, with your gold and your silver, to the help of my people, to the house of the daughters of Zion, to the help of the people of the God of this Land even Jesus Christ. |
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Those of you that have been collecting for years
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