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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
 Posted - 11/08/2008 : 10:01:04
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I am seeing some pricing for silver at the $14/oz range from a few sources. What do you folks think? I may pick up a few ounces to please the wife. She is getting upset that we are getting skunked on halves' boxes.
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n/a
deleted
41 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 10:14:47
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| Look around at the premiums on Ebay. At this point, paper metals and the hard stuff have pretty much decoupled in price, so Ebay is a decent gauge of prices in the physical market. Take a look and decide if it's worth it to you and the wife. |
I'm not gone, I'm just lurking. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 10:41:01
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My suspicion is there will be bargains cropping up relatively soon. I put a watch on the auctions. Here is my theory. If paper silver prices drop below $9 or less, there will be those that will decide to unload their holdings (in fear that silver prices will drop more) possibly at a price at their cost, which for the most part should not be in the high teens based upon the monthly price averages for silver. The fact that some are willing to sell 90% coins at just a 30% premium over silver value is interesting.
Part of me wants to believe that we are in a metals' bubble and prices for all of them will regress to some long term average. The other part of me thinks that we are at a permanent price plateau for resources based upon the US dollar value. The past 8 months I have been scratching my head trying to figure out what actually will hold value if bad scenarios go down. My only conclusion is is that I need to go with the flow. However, we know how markets work and how bubbles get foisted upon us so seductively. I maintain a view that if they can bubble the demand for Tickle-Me-Elmos, Cabbage Patch Kids, Beanie Babies, dotcom stocks, real estate and SuperBowl tickets to name a few, then metals are not too much out of the fold. |
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oober
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1304 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 10:48:25
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I am still paying $15 per Maple from my dealer, he will not go lower. I think the actual price should be around $15.00 anyways. Paper and physical have different values IMO.
Supply and demand, Supply and demand... |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 11:18:46
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What also may effect prices on eBay or Church Sales/rummage sales/thrift stores or any yard or garage sale that are going on in November-
Ignorance- sellers don't know their coins or jewelry are silver, what silver is selling for, etc.
Desperation- With the economy slowing down and job losses weighing on the minds of everyone, some people will sell at a loss to raise cash to live on.
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Edited by - pencilvanian on 11/08/2008 11:19:47 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 13:41:39
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Silver's spot price may go lower, but will small bar prices reflect that? Though I still expect we will see more small bars in the shop by Christmas, the price of silver may be up by then. I have made a recent large buy of two hundred ounces. (Below $13.00) I'm holding for the long term and it takes both time and money to build a physical small bar hoard for most people. Sure, I would like to buy cheaper if I could, but I don't want to miss the boat too. It might be a good idea to dollar cost average your buys now.
Just try not to buy with money you expect you will need soon. See what pencilvanian wrote about desperation above. |
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Think positive. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 14:27:37
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| That is the thing, a bargain could come along, but I tie up capital that could be used for the coin search/churn. I think the dollar cost average thing is a good idea if you are in metals for the long run. I do think that bargains will come and go. A good friend I keep in touch with outlines it succinctly with the idea that money goes into roughly five asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate, CDs and commodities. Maybe James Cramer has a similar outline. Right now, what free cash is chasing is puzzling me. I think there may be a slow uptick in commodities, but have no way of knowing. The point is, there is cash on the side and those that need it will sell stuff to get it. So, who is selling what, other than stocks? |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 14:38:10
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| IMHO desperation selling won't even come near to denting demand. I expect as things get worse (almost inevitable) more people will get onto the hoard silver bandwagon. I've got two points to note regarding price. The volatility in paper is declining, indicating a balance between supply and demand in the paper market. That may mean paper PMs are bottoming. I also have my own theoretical chart which is at an interesting point which says we're either bottoming here or going to 8(ish) by the 17th of Nov. No reliability in the chart though. I seriously expect a bottom and then a sharp rally off the bottom as paper seeks physical price. (also inevitable). The bottom line is, I wold buy non-junk (ASE, CML) at 14 now. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 20:44:03
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I came across this guy again, and his Kennedy halves auction. Check out the counts some buyers are ordering for the 40%'ers:
You must be logged in to see this link.|66%3A2|65%3A12|39%3A1|240%3A1318 |
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oober
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1304 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 21:06:45
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Well at spot these are probably $1.35 melt? Too lazy to look right now. So a little more then 50% premium. This is of course you at least buy 20 to divide up original 2$ shipping cost.
It's not too far off what most are paying (premium) on most bullion.
Am I wrong here? |
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natsb88
Administrator
USA
1850 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 21:15:14
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quote:
Originally posted by oober
Well at spot these are probably $1.35 melt? Too lazy to look right now. So a little more then 50% premium. This is of course you at least buy 20 to divide up original 2$ shipping cost.
It's not too far off what most are paying (premium) on most bullion.
Am I wrong here?
Cost before shipping on Nucleo is about $1.83 each, so $2 isn't too far off. |
Nate
The Copper Cave
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 21:21:51
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| $40 a roll for 40% is a good deal for the seller, even if shipping were free. |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2008 : 22:15:48
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| The seller, mikescoins or something, was/is selling those 5 Kennedy halves for face and no shipping to boost his feedback score. If his shop is actually physically located where he states it is, is it a far cry to assume his source banks for halves are in the area too? Did he show his hand for a good locale for halves? Perhaps he has some other place other than the PA location where he gets the coins? |
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wagsthadog
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
565 Posts |
Posted - 11/10/2008 : 10:41:27
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Hi there-
My suggestion is go for it. $14/oz for regular silver and $18/oz for SAE's seems to be the norm.
If silver does fall, at least you have it!
Remember, lightning can strike anytime!!
wags |
Only when they CAN'T have it, ......THEN they'll want it.
I love Cents. If you get an UNC box, you win. If you get a regular circ. box, you win. If you get a zinc box, you don't lose....so you still win. |
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rodzm
Penny Pincher Member
USA
143 Posts |
Posted - 11/10/2008 : 14:14:35
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| Or if you are a member of goldismoney.info there is a link to APMEX with the GIM rounds going for less than $13. By far the best deal going |
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Silver for $14/oz worth it?
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