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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 10/14/2008 : 15:36:02
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Poll Question:
Do you see the United Sates and perhaps the rest of the world as moving into an economic deflation, hyperinflation, stagflation or other scenario(s) within the next 12 months?
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| Results: |
| Hyperinflation |
 [50%] |
5 votes |
| Deflation |
[10%] |
1 votes |
| Stagflation (slow growth with high inflation.) |
[20%] |
2 votes |
| None of the above. The economy will recover soon. |
[10%] |
1 votes |
| Other |
[10%] |
1 votes |
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Poll Status:
Locked »» |
Total Votes: 10 counted »» |
Last Vote:
10/14/2008 19:18:26 |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 17:23:13
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I'm going with don't know. Policies of the next president and congress could send us into any direction. I think the bias is toward deflation with a strong second of stagflation though, since the probability of significant tax increases looms large. The last thing borderline solvent homeowners need is another few hundred a month taken from their pay, but I believe that's what they'll get. It's a cinch the Bush tax cuts will be taken away, and while that is semantically not
a tax increase, it will still raise tax payments on everyone making over $40,000.
edit:I realize that's a local not global view, but I think it's evident how the US goes, the world goes. Although... without an increase in tax revenues hyperinflation is the soup du jour |
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Edited by - fb101 on 10/14/2008 17:26:21 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 19:30:46
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| Right now it starting to seem more like a deflation to me. Stock market crashing, banks in trouble, commodities, including oil, heading down fast. Wages, if you still are working, are at best staying the same for most workers. Prices are still going up, but with less dollars in circulation how much more can they go? If this is a deflation,it may not play out well for precious metals over the short term, but then how long will the economic status quo last with a 750 billion dollar bailout just to get the ball started? If you are buying precious metals now you may really be buying them for their value a year or so in the future. |
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Think positive. |
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kieblera5
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
859 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 21:30:34
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| I voted hyper-inflation... I think that even though everything is deflation-like, it will turn around and eventually reach hyperinflation. |
Democracy is being allowed to vote for the candidate you dislike least.
Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you mercilessly with experience.
Caller number seven gets the Peace Prize!
Get coding tips, tricks, and more at: http://codingmonday.blogspot.com |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 22:15:00
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First deflation, then hyperinflation--sort of like when you breathe as much air out of your lungs as you possibly can, then inhale helium. We've got deflation right now because of the business slowdown and lack of consumer spending and borrowing that the $750 billion is supposed to remedy, then soon hyperinflation as we keep borrowing more money and have to crank up the printing presses. I don't foresee hyperinflation starting within the next 12 months, but we're well on the way.
How feasible would it be to have deflation at home, with a continued economic slowdown domestically, but dollar hyperinflation abroad because of the Fed's printing presses? |
Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
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Edited by - Nickelless on 10/14/2008 22:20:56 |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 05:47:00
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you have deflation in some things and inflation in other things, generally those which can be exported. things like labor and real estate have deflation.
i expect the fed will create hyperinflation which will cause inflation in most things and a lowering of our standard of living. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 18:16:20
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| I don't know if the defation will last 12 months or not. Both the republicans and democrats are falling all over themselves already to expand the money supply. The more we go into deflation the more people will default on their loans. Inflation will mean that they will pay back the loans in cheaper dollars provided they have a fixed interest rate. Sounds great until no one wants to loan out money anymore. Then what, deflation again? |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:20:08
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quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
I don't know if the defation will last 12 months or not. Both the republicans and democrats are falling all over themselves already to expand the money supply. The more we go into deflation the more people will default on their loans. Inflation will mean that they will pay back the loans in cheaper dollars provided they have a fixed interest rate. Sounds great until no one wants to loan out money anymore. Then what, deflation again?
OH KNOW, I DROPPED AND BROKE MY MAGIC 8 BALL!!
No one wants to loan now, and the Treasury has very recently flooded the Fed with new FRN's, freshly conjured from the ether...
Soliloquy: Only that I could make money from ether...Oh, if only.
Well, without the Magic 8 Ball, I'm back to my limited wits. 
I believe the deflationary stage won't last 12 months...maybe not 12 weeks, or 12 days.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 19:25:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
quote:
Originally posted by Ardent Listener
I don't know if the defation will last 12 months or not. Both the republicans and democrats are falling all over themselves already to expand the money supply. The more we go into deflation the more people will default on their loans. Inflation will mean that they will pay back the loans in cheaper dollars provided they have a fixed interest rate. Sounds great until no one wants to loan out money anymore. Then what, deflation again?
OH KNOW, I DROPPED AND BROKE MY MAGIC 8 BALL!!
No one wants to loan now, and the Treasury has very recently flooded the Fed with new FRN's, freshly conjured from the ether...
Soliloquy: Only that I could make money from ether...Oh, if only.
Well, without the Magic 8 Ball, I'm back to my limited wits.
I believe the deflationary stage won't last 12 months...maybe not 12 weeks, or 12 days.
If no one wants to loan now with taxpayer's money then what's going to be the spark that's going to ignite inflation? Are they going to have to send us all each a $100,000 rebate check? |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 22:03:01
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Someone needs to define hyperinflation. If you are using the definition that I was taught, then there is no way we get hyperinflation.
Cum. 3 year inflation rate of 100+% -- Would mean the next 12 months would have to hit around 90%...chance of that are around none.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 22:13:46
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
Someone needs to define hyperinflation. If you are using the definition that I was taught, then there is no way we get hyperinflation.
Cum. 3 year inflation rate of 100+% -- Would mean the next 12 months would have to hit around 90%...chance of that are around none.
-SWUSC
Not yet anyway. Check out the link in my signature line from Shadowstats.com, and also check out ChrisMartenson.com. I think we're heading that way soon but not for a few years.
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Visit my new preparedness site: Preparedness.cc/SurvivalPrep.net
--Latest article: Stocking up on spices to keep food preps lively
---------------
Be prepared...and prepared to help: http://www.survivalblog.com/charity.html
Are you ready spiritually for hard times? http://www.jesusfreak.com/rapture.asp |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 05:52:20
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| cpi of 10% or 20% will throw major monkey wrenches into our economy. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 06:17:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by swusc
Someone needs to define hyperinflation. If you are using the definition that I was taught, then there is no way we get hyperinflation.
Cum. 3 year inflation rate of 100+% -- Would mean the next 12 months would have to hit around 90%...chance of that are around none.
-SWUSC
Not yet anyway. Check out the link in my signature line from Shadowstats.com, and also check out ChrisMartenson.com. I think we're heading that way soon but not for a few years.
A long but good read. I'm going to try to post in in another thread, minus the charts, if the system will take it all. Thanks. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 11:01:02
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Silver is down around 8% today to under $10.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/17/2008 : 08:07:22
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What I predict is that most things will continue to deflate in terms of gold for a long, long time. So, if you will, we will have a deflationary depression in term of gold. In terms of dollars, right now it looks like the same thing, but the deflation in dollar terms is even stronger.
However the herd is on edge. The tension is so thick that you can cut it with a knife. As such, it will take only the slightest whiff of smoke coming from the dollar to panic the herd. Where will they run to? What is left to run to? Where has everybody throughout history ran to as a last resort?
So, my vote is for a deflationary depression followed closely by a currency collapse (aka hyper-inflation). Half of the equation is already in place. The other half, if history repeats, will strike like a lightning bolt happening so fast you will wake up one day and think you woke up in another world.
If I am wrong, so be it, I will gladly take my lumps in gold. At this point I would rather have the security of gold and be losing money, then risk everything on the dollar even if the dollar is the only thing currently going up at the moment… (IMHO and feeling humbler everyday)
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 10/17/2008 : 08:30:00
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quote:
Originally posted by horgad
What I predict is that most things will continue to deflate in terms of gold for a long, long time. So, if you will, we will have a deflationary depression in term of gold. In terms of dollars, right now it looks like the same thing, but the deflation in dollar terms is even stronger.
However the herd is on edge. The tension is so thick that you can cut it with a knife. As such, it will take only the slightest whiff of smoke coming from the dollar to panic the herd. Where will they run to? What is left to run to? Where has everybody throughout history ran to as a last resort?
So, my vote is for a deflationary depression followed closely by a currency collapse (aka hyper-inflation). Half of the equation is already in place. The other half, if history repeats, will strike like a lightning bolt happening so fast you will wake up one day and think you woke up in another world.
If I am wrong, so be it, I will gladly take my lumps in gold. At this point I would rather have the security of gold and be losing money, then risk everything on the dollar even if the dollar is the only thing currently going up at the moment… (IMHO and feeling humbler everyday)
Couldnt have said it better myself. |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/17/2008 : 21:00:36
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Horgad's quote-
"At this point I would rather have the security of gold and be losing money, then risk everything on the dollar even if the dollar is the only thing currently going up at the moment…"
Most likely there are quite a number of people in Iceland who wish they had taken your advice instead of trusting in their dollar.
I voted for other-
recession,
deep recession bordering depression,
inflation
steep inflation bordering on hyper-inflation
My definition of hyper-inflation (and this is my definition, not the kind taught in classrooms or textbooks)
when the cost of everything and anything increases 25%-50% per month that is hyper-inflation (at least it feels like hyper-inflation if you are living under such conditions.) |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 10/18/2008 : 06:20:01
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| we are experiencing a temporary deflation, but recognize that its mostly in financial assets and labor, not goods that can be exported or imported. i expect this to be very temporary. the banks are about to get thier $700B and then its off to the races. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Topic |
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Hyper-inflation, Deflation, Stagflation or Other?
Forum Locked
