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Nickelless
Administrator
    
 USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 05:12:25
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Not sure how I stumbled across this, but I don't think I've ever read a commentary on Social Security that says there is absolutely no problem looming with regard to its solvency--the author says that since the U.S. government PROMISES Social Security to seniors--who are the most apt to get out and vote--then heaven forbid that the feds would even THINK of doing anything to the program. (News flash: The national debt just grew by another $700 billion.) The article below is at You must be logged in to see this link.
quote: Shame on Tom Brokaw for saying, during the recent presidential debate, that Social Security is broken, and that it forms (along with Medicare) “a big ticking time bomb that will eat us up maybe even more than the mortgage crisis.” The widespread claim that Social Security is broken, often-repeated by the media and by politicians in both parties, is complete nonsense.
Read this sentence several times, to counteract the wrongness of the last several hundred news stories you’ve read on the topic: Social Security is running a surplus and has all the savings it needs to pay all promised benefits until 2046, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Even after that date, it could still pay retirees more real, inflation-adjusted income than current beneficiaries are getting. It’s not a problem that the Baby Boomers are retiring because U.S. economic productivity (in dollars per person-hour worked) keeps rising over time. This doesn’t produce a free lunch, but it does generate a predictably larger societal pie.
Social Security’s savings are held in U.S. Treasury bonds—the exact investment which money managers worldwide are flocking to in droves because it is safe. (In contrast, those who want to privatize Social Security have suggested putting the money into the stock market, which, as we are seeing right now, falls very short in the “security” department.) The U.S. has never defaulted on its sovereign debt, ever. If it were going to start (an idea which Wall Street would fight tooth, nail, and lobbyist), the U.S. would still not default on its bonds to Social Security because these debts are owed to senior citizens, the age group that votes at the highest rate.
This is also the reason why there is no parallel between Social Security and the many private-company pension plans that are in trouble. Those are going downhill because federal regulators have let companies underpay their pension funds and invest them in too-risky speculations. (Also, private companies can simply get away with offering worse pensions these days, now that our country has spent decades undercutting labor unions.)
The government has been trying to underplay its economic mistakes by not including, in official federal deficit figures, the money it is borrowing from Social Security via those treasury bonds. But this fuzzy math is not a problem with Social Security, which is running a surplus. The problem is the borrow-and-spend Bush administration, which inherited a budget in the black, but embarked on expensive wars and massive tax cuts for the rich, both of which the next administration should pull out of.
The widespread misinformation about Social Security is due to a combination of ignorance, groupthink, and right-wing efforts to convince people not to trust government—even in areas, like Social Security, in which government has a decades-long record of working well and efficiently.
In stark contrast, Medicare and Medicaid, along with our entire healthcare system, are broken in a big way. We should focus on fixing them and other problems due to arrive before 2046.
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fb101
Administrator
    

USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 05:28:36
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Misinformation; "The U.S. has never defaulted on its sovereign debt, ever. " Actually, the US defaulted on almost every bond it wrote before 1900. |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
   
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 10:08:03
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Find me an example of a MAJOR government that issues FIAT currency that has ever defaulted on debt issued in its own currency. I guess there might be one African country that ran out of paper. Lets go with the big powerful countries though and not some 3rd world nation.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
    

2906 Posts |
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Nickelless
Administrator
    

USA
5580 Posts |
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jadedragon
Administrator
    

Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 14:32:52
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quote: Originally posted by swusc
Find me an example of a MAJOR government that issues FIAT currency that has ever defaulted on debt issued in its own currency. I guess there might be one African country that ran out of paper. Lets go with the big powerful countries though and not some 3rd world nation. -SWUSC
Your question inspired me to do some research. Here is a Wikipedia clip from the Government Debt article:
"Lendings to a national government in the country's own sovereign currency are often considered "risk free" and are made at a so-called "risk-free interest rate". This is because the debt and interest can be repaid by raising tax receipts (either by economic growth or raising rates), a reduction in spending, or failing that by simply printing more money. Some economists argue that, in an economy near the full employment, this would increase inflation and reduce the value of the invested capital. An extreme example of this is provided by Weimar Germany of the 1920s which suffered from hyperinflation due to its government's inability to pay the national debt.
A politically unstable state is anything but risk-free as it may, being sovereign, cease its payments with impunity. Famous examples of this phenomenon include the Spain of sixteenth and seventeenth centuries which nullified its government debt seven times during a century and revolutionary Russia of 1917 which refused to accept the responsibility for Imperial Russian debt. Another political risk is caused by external threats. It is most uncommon for invaders to accept responsibility for the national debt of the annexed state or that of an organization it considered a rebellion. For example, all debts taken by Confederate States of America were left unpaid after the American Civil War.
I consider Germany, Russia, the southern half of the US, and Spain all to be major states.
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“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw. Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony Passive Income blog |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
    

USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 19:22:55
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Time to dissect the statements
"Shame on Tom Brokaw..."
Oh yes, shame those who see problems in the future and who advise we take action now instead of later.
"Social Security is running a surplus and has all the savings it needs to pay all promised benefits until 2046, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office."
Hmmm, government experts saying all is well government experts saying inflation is low
Gotta love that gubmint of ours.
"Even after that date, it could still pay retirees more real, inflation-adjusted income than current beneficiaries are getting."
It used to be 5 workers to support every 1 Social Security retiree, now it is down to 3, soon it will be 2 supporting every SS retiree. How in the world can so few support so many without a cut in benefits or means testing? The government monkeyed with the inflation figures so COLAs would be less expensive for the government to figure out how much each recipient of Social Security would get.
"It’s not a problem that the Baby Boomers are retiring because U.S. economic productivity (in dollars per person-hour worked) keeps rising over time." The Baby Boomers retiring has been called "the pig through the python" sooner or later, that python is going to burst from the huge meal.
Economic activity is up- US Economic activty has been described by wise men and women as a FIRE economy Finance Insurance Real Estate With real estate prices declining and buyers sitting on the sidelines, with insurance companies deflating due to the mortgage junk investments(AIG, MET, etc.) and with finance locking up since trust and faith and the belief the loans will be paid back have evaporated The US Economy is headed for some serious troubles.
None are so blind as those who will not see........ |
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