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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
 Posted - 10/07/2008 : 18:20:00
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......There are a lot of theories as to why the dollar continues to rally in the face of increasing debt burdens, job losses, factories nearly shutting down, etc.
In the end it really is just a case of the U.S. and Europe being in a bind, and them coming back to dollars as a safe haven... There's the CDOs unwinding, there's the capital requirements on toxic waste bonds, there's a ton of things going for the dollar right now, and I won't deny it... Which is why I said yesterday that I needed to go sit in a corner with my back to the room, for not seeing this ahead of time... I was so myopic about all the bad stuff causing problems for the dollar and didn't see the bad stuff causing dollar strength... Just didn't make sense to me, the dollar looked like it didn't have a prayer...
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Weakness becomes strength,
The masses turning to what seems to be a life boat to protect their financial lives, not realizing that inflation is waiting in the waters to eat said lifeboat.
Inflation or deflation, governments will turn to the former because they fear the latter.
(Will Rogers, Invest in inflation, its the only thing that is going up.)
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 10/07/2008 : 18:40:51
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quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
You must be logged in to see this link.
......There are a lot of theories as to why the dollar continues to rally in the face of increasing debt burdens, job losses, factories nearly shutting down, etc.
In the end it really is just a case of the U.S. and Europe being in a bind, and them coming back to dollars as a safe haven... There's the CDOs unwinding, there's the capital requirements on toxic waste bonds, there's a ton of things going for the dollar right now, and I won't deny it... Which is why I said yesterday that I needed to go sit in a corner with my back to the room, for not seeing this ahead of time... I was so myopic about all the bad stuff causing problems for the dollar and didn't see the bad stuff causing dollar strength... Just didn't make sense to me, the dollar looked like it didn't have a prayer...
**********************
Weakness becomes strength,
The masses turning to what seems to be a life boat to protect their financial lives, not realizing that inflation is waiting in the waters to eat said lifeboat.
Inflation or deflation, governments will turn to the former because they fear the latter.
(Will Rogers, Invest in inflation, its the only thing that is going up.)
Defation is reported to be a bigger concern than inflation right now. So the dollars that are around look better and so do our pennies and nickels right along with them. But even G.W.Bush is no Herbert Hoover and no matter who takes the office after him the treasury will be busy printing trillions of new dollars to fend-off the depression. |
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Think positive. |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 10/07/2008 : 19:43:59
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| No one knows what to do! Canadian Government just postponed sales of ultra-safe Canada Savings Bonds. News is speculating they just don't know what interest rate to charge. What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund? |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2008 : 16:53:42
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"What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund?"
Silver or gold Maple Leafs? |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2008 : 19:17:39
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quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
"What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund?"
Silver or gold Maple Leafs?
What is the long term investment return of gold and silver?
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2008 : 21:39:25
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
"What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund?"
Silver or gold Maple Leafs?
What is the long term investment return of gold and silver?
-SWUSC
It's not an investment, it's a safe harbor for wealth.
I think that way too many still don't grasp that. No one is going to get rich holding PM's. The benefit they provide is stability. When the dollar collapses, and a gallon of gas is $30, silver will be about $110/oz. You will not have "gained" anything, except that you will have sheltered that portion of your wealth that you placed in PM's against the collapse of a bogus monetary scheme.
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2008 : 22:55:41
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quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
It's not an investment, it's a safe harbor for wealth.
I think that way too many still don't grasp that. No one is going to get rich holding PM's. The benefit they provide is stability. When the dollar collapses, and a gallon of gas is $30, silver will be about $110/oz. You will not have "gained" anything, except that you will have sheltered that portion of your wealth that you placed in PM's against the collapse of a bogus monetary scheme.
Thank you for posting that, D.J. I think we all need to keep in mind that we're not out to create wealth per se but protect what we do have. This is just transferring our wealth from fake money to real money so that when the fiat dollar collapses, we'll still have something to fall back on while everyone else is using their FRNs for firewood. |
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---------------
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Edited by - Nickelless on 10/08/2008 22:57:12 |
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 10:02:49
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quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
"What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund?"
Silver or gold Maple Leafs?
What is the long term investment return of gold and silver?
-SWUSC
It's not an investment, it's a safe harbor for wealth.
I think that way too many still don't grasp that. No one is going to get rich holding PM's. The benefit they provide is stability. When the dollar collapses, and a gallon of gas is $30, silver will be about $110/oz. You will not have "gained" anything, except that you will have sheltered that portion of your wealth that you placed in PM's against the collapse of a bogus monetary scheme.
Ok. I will rephrase. How is it a safe harbor of wealth?
What was the price of PM then vs today? Now adjust for inflation?
You must be logged in to see this link.
It might long term track inflation, but we don't know that as we only have 35 years of data with gold not being money. Over those 35 years... it sucked at tracking inflation.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 14:25:05
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"How is it a safe harbor of wealth?"
There are no safe harbors of wealth. There are just safer harbors of wealth. There is no where to hide completely and no way not to play the game. All you can do is pick a pony or three and hope that at least some of them continue to run in the right direction for a while.
So, in my mind, the question is not is gold a safe harbor of wealth, but rather how does it compare today against the other ponies as far as risk versus reward is concerned?
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Edited by - horgad on 10/09/2008 14:35:33 |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 17:44:01
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by Delawhere Jack
quote:
Originally posted by swusc
quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
"What is Grandma going to buy for her grandkid's college fund?"
Silver or gold Maple Leafs?
What is the long term investment return of gold and silver?
-SWUSC
It's not an investment, it's a safe harbor for wealth.
I think that way too many still don't grasp that. No one is going to get rich holding PM's. The benefit they provide is stability. When the dollar collapses, and a gallon of gas is $30, silver will be about $110/oz. You will not have "gained" anything, except that you will have sheltered that portion of your wealth that you placed in PM's against the collapse of a bogus monetary scheme.
Ok. I will rephrase. How is it a safe harbor of wealth?
What was the price of PM then vs today? Now adjust for inflation?
You must be logged in to see this link.
It might long term track inflation, but we don't know that as we only have 35 years of data with gold not being money. Over those 35 years... it sucked at tracking inflation.
-SWUSC
Inflation only exists to any significant extent in fiat currencies. When your currency is backed by a commodity that is: rare, takes significant effort to obtain, and cannot be conjured from the ether, then you can go for generations virtually inflation free.
Stop and think about the ramifications of that. If you choose to live below your means and put something aside, you can pass on to your children wealth that is worth as much as it was when you earned it. Can you do that with any fiat currency?
The value that the market places on PM's when expressed in terms of fiat currency is an abhorition (misspelled, sorry).
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 17:52:02
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quote:
Originally posted by horgad
"How is it a safe harbor of wealth?"
There are no safe harbors of wealth. There are just safer harbors of wealth. There is no where to hide completely and no way not to play the game. All you can do is pick a pony or three and hope that at least some of them continue to run in the right direction for a while.
So, in my mind, the question is not is gold a safe harbor of wealth, but rather how does it compare today against the other ponies as far as risk versus reward is concerned?
Good point, well taken.
Probably the safest pony of all is productive farmland. Everyone needs to eat, first and foremost. But picking the best pony becomes a crapshoot when you've got a government that can change the rules at anytime for reasons that benefit them, first and foremost...
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"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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swusc
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
553 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 18:02:37
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The greatest inflation in history to hit multiply countries at once came after the discovery of the new world. All that gold discovered in the Americas created some bad inflation in Europe.
What are you going to do if we find enough gold to double the supply over night? We just have 100+% inflation.
Nothing is perfect. I will stick to my cash for right now.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Delawhere Jack
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1680 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 18:04:41
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
The greatest inflation in history to hit multiply countries at once came after the discovery of the new world. All that gold discovered in the Americas created some bad inflation in Europe.
What are you going to do if we find enough gold to double the supply over night? We just have 100+% inflation.
Nothing is perfect. I will stick to my cash for right now.
-SWUSC
Good luck.... |
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." Thomas Jefferson
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silverhalide
Penny Sorter Member
92 Posts |
Posted - 10/16/2008 : 13:05:14
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| Liquidation and keeping investments in cash is really no different than demand for the dollar. After this trend subsides the true fundamentals of the currency will resume. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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Dollar defying decline theory
Forum Locked
