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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
 Posted - 09/09/2008 : 09:41:17
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Anybody watching silver today? Still dropping. We may see $10 silver again yet.
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"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 09:45:08
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quote:
Originally posted by TenBears
Anybody watching silver today? Still dropping. We may see $10 silver again yet.
$11.91 as I write this. Word on the street is that Ponce sold off .o1% of his silver holdings recently. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 09:57:24
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| I might have to spend all those 40% halves for face it this keeps up. Would it not be fun to spend a $5 Maple Leaf at the grocery store? (let's really hope not!) |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 10:11:50
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quote:
Originally posted by legacypac
I might have to spend all those 40% halves for face it this keeps up. Would it not be fun to spend a $5 Maple Leaf at the grocery store? (let's really hope not!)
Actually, wouldn't that be a good thing? That would mean we would be dealing with real money once again. |
"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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jpf231
Penny Collector Member
USA
340 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 10:13:29
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| At $10 - I say borrow $50,000 and buy as much silver as you can get your hands on. |
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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 10:39:14
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| The US government has the biggest financial bailout in the country's history taking on troubled mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and silver drops?????????? |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 11:08:55
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quote:
Originally posted by TenBears
quote:
Originally posted by legacypac
I might have to spend all those 40% halves for face it this keeps up. Would it not be fun to spend a $5 Maple Leaf at the grocery store? (let's really hope not!)
Actually, wouldn't that be a good thing? That would mean we would be dealing with real money once again.
Serious deflation combined with rock bottom silver prices? I'll take a pass thanks. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
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magnasort
Penny Pincher Member
USA
174 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 11:40:24
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| Im buying as much as the wife will let me, then a little more she doesnt know about as well as loading up at garage sales as usual |
Magnetic sorters, no moving parts except the coins |
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kavajava
Penny Collector Member
USA
490 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 12:01:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Copper Catcher
The US government has the biggest financial bailout in the country's history taking on troubled mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and silver drops??????????
With an emphasis on the ?????????????? !
I am beginning to wonder if someone is going to be like George Soros who "broke the bank of England" because he knew they couldn't indefinitely violate economic law...silver seems like the same thing now--there is a shortage, the dollar is getting worse, the gvt. wants to bail out the whole system...
again ???????????? |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 12:15:49
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| ????????????? as did the price of oil. It appears that investors are more concern with the recession/depression than inflation...........right now. After all there is no shortage of dollars. (Sarc.) Few investors or goverment officials can see past the next 6 months nor do they seem to care too. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 12:44:38
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This is war and most likely it will not end until one side has been completely wiped out. Right now our side is losing. 
On Their Side:
1. Control of the paper and computer based financial systems
2. Control of information
On Our Side:
1. The realities of FIAT currency, huge debt, and a bad balance sheet
2. The realities of supply/demand in real physical markets
History has shown that governments will do absolutely everything possible (short of cutting spending) to try and prevent their currencies from collapsing and inflation from running out of control. This time is no different. The gloves are off and at the moment we are getting pummeled.
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kavajava
Penny Collector Member
USA
490 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 13:30:12
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| We are getting pummeled...stay the course! |
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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 14:14:42
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| $11.45 close in New York according to the Kitco silver chart. I need to figure out what junk I can sell in order to buy some more silver. |
"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 15:15:47
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| Hummmm, I see the formation of the Realcent Silver Syndicate on the horizon. |
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ScottyTX
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
508 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 15:22:47
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| ummm, I see 11.28 now on the chart, still waiting for my funds to come through |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 15:46:09
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| I think we will see many more silver buyers than sellers at this point. If prices drop more, this could get interesting. Picture a silver bubble getting drummed up if the big money accumulates it while it is cheap. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Hoarding Member
669 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 16:37:42
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| I'll be looking too for the junk silver. And buying as much as I can if spot prices get below $10/ounce. Right now, the "safest" way to accumulate silver is to buy $100 boxes of nickels and sort them as time permits. Sure, the spot price on silver is such that a war nickel only can fetch perhaps $0.65 for metal content. That is a paltry amount. Just the imagine the hours of fun though, sorting the boxes, looking for oddities and shiny AU quality coins too. I can tell you, it is hours of fun and anguish combined. LOL. |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 16:42:38
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quote:
Originally posted by JerrySpringer
I'll be looking too for the junk silver. And buying as much as I can if spot prices get below $10/ounce. Right now, the "safest" way to accumulate silver is to buy $100 boxes of nickels and sort them as time permits. Sure, the spot price on silver is such that a war nickel only can fetch perhaps $0.65 for metal content. That is a paltry amount. Just the imagine the hours of fun though, sorting the boxes, looking for oddities and shiny AU quality coins too. I can tell you, it is hours of fun and anguish combined. LOL.
I realize that a lot of people have a lot of fun searching through bags and rolls for silver, but with silver at such a low price right now, wouldn't it be a much wiser use of time and resources to snap up a 90 percent junk bag on APMEX instead of going on a fishing expedition that may only yield stinkin' clads? |
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darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 17:36:31
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by JerrySpringer
I'll be looking too for the junk silver. And buying as much as I can if spot prices get below $10/ounce. Right now, the "safest" way to accumulate silver is to buy $100 boxes of nickels and sort them as time permits. Sure, the spot price on silver is such that a war nickel only can fetch perhaps $0.65 for metal content. That is a paltry amount. Just the imagine the hours of fun though, sorting the boxes, looking for oddities and shiny AU quality coins too. I can tell you, it is hours of fun and anguish combined. LOL.
I realize that a lot of people have a lot of fun searching through bags and rolls for silver, but with silver at such a low price right now, wouldn't it be a much wiser use of time and resources to snap up a 90 percent junk bag on APMEX instead of going on a fishing expedition that may only yield stinkin' clads?
I think this is a good idea. The premium on 90% silver is nor exorbitant yet. It's only about 50 cents over spot, which is bad for junk, but not that bad. I think at this point junk makes a lot more sense than paying the ridiculous premium on eagles, especially if you already have a bunch of them purchased without such a premium.
Maybe if the price gets so low that even with the premium I can get eagles at less that what I paid for them in 2006 ($12.55) I will buy as many as I can afford. I'll buy a box if I can.
On another note, I have a substantial amount of gold. Not a ton, but more than a couple ounces. Would it make sense to liquidate that or maybe half of it and put it into silver? |
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scooter
Penny Pincher Member
240 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 17:45:46
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| I found some guy willing to sell merc at 8x face!!!. i am picking up 1000 tomorrow. I will report on how it goes because this seems to good to be true |
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Neckro
1000+ Penny Miser Member
Saudi Arabia
2080 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 19:45:32
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| 11.03 11.09 Current silver price from Kitco.... So, anyone wanna sell to me at Face? :D |
Trolling is an art. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 19:54:27
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| Looks like silver may slip into the $10ish range tonight. Oil may slip below $100.00 soon too. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Kurr
1000+ Penny Miser Member
2906 Posts |
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jadedragon
Administrator
Canada
3788 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2008 : 00:32:48
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quote:
Originally posted by Kurr
I see it hit 11.00 maybe 10.99, 11.18 now. I don't understand what a long or short is, or how it affects the markets. This is a BAD time to try and learn and understand anything. Anyone wanna help, maybe in another thread?
It is not well understood but pretty easy actually.
Long and short refer to commodity trader's positions and in some contexts we call the actual investors "longs" and "shorts". I'm using fictional contract sizes for simplicity.
First we look at Futures Contracts:
A "futures contract" is a piece of paper (now a computer file I guess) that specifies three things - a price, a quantity of a commodity, and a delivery date. Every contract has a seller and a buyer, and contracts can be resold over and over until they are cancelled out, completed, or expire worthless.
The trader that sells the futures contract charges a small fee to the buyer of the contract. The exchange and the brokers also get a cut.
Shorting Something:
If you think silver is going down you can sell 1000 ounces of silver to me at $15 per ounce for delivery in 3 months without owning the silver. You are betting you can buy the silver (or more likely an offsetting contract for delivery of the silver) for less than $15. (Sell high, buy low). You are now in a "short" position and are called a "short" because you are literally "short" the silver. You are also said to be "shorting" the silver.
This is the most risky side of the trade. Silver might go to 5 cents and you could make almost $15,000 (1000 ounces X $14.95). However, silver could go to $100 an ounce and you have to settle the contract by paying $85,000. ($100-$15=$85 X 1000 ounces). Because you are really exposed to high risk, we call this particular position a "naked short". Good thing you got that little payment up front.
Going Long on Something:
So I think that silver is going up soon. In fact I think that $15 silver is a heck of a deal delivered 3 months from now. So I buy your contract and expect you to deliver that silver (or pay up the differance) in 3 months. I'm now "long" on silver. Think of it as waiting a "long" time for delivery. This can be a somewhat risky postion, but the maximum exposure is the total value of the contract ($15,000 in this example) less whatever you can resell the silver for (something greater then zero obviously). You could even take delivery and sit on the silver until the price goes up again so you will not be out of pocket. I pay a little payment to you for the chance that Silver is going way up and I can profit on the differance.
Settling up:If silver goes down by a $1 an ounce you just buy a 1000 ounce offsetting contract for a delivery date matching your short position. The exchange matches the two contracts up and you take your profits.
If silver goes up a $1 an ounce, you are going to have to buy an offseting contract, and its going to cost you an extra $1000. You might also wait out the contract and settle the differance at the end.
We just assumed that we are both traders, not actual owners or users of silver.
Another Shorting Example:
Say instead you own a silver mine. You are pretty sure you can deliver 1000 ounces of silver in 3 months and you like $15 an ounce. In fact, you know it costs you $12 an ounce to mine and refine that silver. You are afraid that silver prices might fall, and you will lose money on mining the silver. So you sell a contract just like the first example for delivery of 1000 ounces in 3 months at $15 per ounce. Again you just shorted silver - but for a different reason - you removed the risk that you would not be able to sell your silver at a profit.
Now we call you a "covered short". You still are betting silver will go down, but you are not going to lose money on the deal because you get your preferred price and the only thing you can loose is the potential profit you could have had if silver goes up and you had not agreed today to sell at $15 an ounce.
Another silmilar position - you might already own the silver sitting in a valet - pretty much the same deal as the mining company but you just want to earn a little money on your position so you sell covered shorts on the silver.
If I use silver to make jewelry or something and I want to protect my price at the $15 level (to reduce risk of a price increase to my business) I could buy a contract and go long just like the trader - but I'm not really speculating.
Options:
Options are also agreements that operate much like futures contracts. You can go long, go short, be naked short or covered short in options as well. The differance is that if the price goes in the other direction then what you bet, your option expires worthless. If you agree to sell me silver at $15 in three months, but Silver goes to $12 I'm not going to exercise my option to buy at $15 from you. You earn the option payment, and I lose the option payment, but that is it. However, if silver goes to $18 I'm going to call the option and you will have to pay me $3 an ounce to settle up. When the option has value to the buyer it is called "in the money". If it is right at the market value it is "at the money".
"Spot" is the price contracts (I think 90 day contracts but not sure)
are being written at right now. More buyers then sellers of contracts at a given price - and the price goes up till there is an equal number of buyers and sellers at the new price. More sellers then buyers at a given price and the spot price moves down to reach equality of price. As those buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders are matched the spot price adjusts all day long.
So that is what people are talking about when they say paper silver. Most of it is futures contracts and options. In theory, actual supply (available silver owned by willing sellers) and demand (willing buyers/users of physical silver at various prices) of silver would drive the price up and down.
However, you can write a naked short futures contract (as above). If I agree to buy it at your price, we trade and therefore set the spot price for that moment. We never need to produce or transfer any physical silver since we can settle the differance in cash.
If you and others offer to sell LOTS and LOTS of naked short positions the price will tend to fall, and then you and others can cover your short positions at future lower prices (for futures contracts) or make the price of the option. The buyers like me then lose our option payments, or suffer the cost of having to buy the silver at the price we contracted for (and if we don't need the silver, sell that silver, recoop the current price, and suffer the differance).
Other Commodities:
A commodity is something that is fully interchangeable and common. You are not a commodity because we can't exchange you for any one of many other identical people. Real Estate is not a commodity because no two properties have exactly the same features (unique location is the most obvious reason). Silver is a commodity because an ounce of silver is exactly like another ounce of silver anywhere in the world. Gold, Wheat and Oats (to a certian spec), #2 Sweet Texas Crude Oil, Pork Bellies, Orange Juice, and Copper are all commodities that trade like silver does.
Pennies and Copper Prices:
When you buy a copper penny at the bank you just basically bought an option. You are betting that copper is going up in the future and you can sell the penny for more later. You have a covered position at 1 cent. But you might be wrong-copper prices could fall. Since you bought the penny at face, your maximum downside is to spend the penny at face value and suffer the holding cost and value lost to inflation.
If the price of copper moves up (and the price of copper pennies moves up too), you will make a profit.
However, buying copper pennies at face is a bad example of the futures market because there is no major downside (other then holding cost, opprotunity costs, and inflation) and there is no time limits or contract to deal with. We are still speculators but not exactly like the commodity traders are.
Rather then taking a long position in copper at the current spot price, we actually are getting a long position at a discount - with no expiry on the position since there is no one on the other side forcing us to sell.
Pretend there is only silver and cash as stores of wealth. If you go buy a 1000 ounces of physical silver from me and stick it in your safe you are betting that silver prices will go up. You basically have a covered option. I sold because I bet that the price will fall, so I went short, but I'm a covered short. We settled up front, so really there is no future contract here. But later we might trade again at another price and reverse the position at which point one of us will profit and one of us will lose.
The other big differance between our physical silver trading and the commodity traders is that we must take out hard cash to trade the silver. No one will lend you money against your physical silver position (well at least not at the amounts we are holding), but if we are trading futures and options we can do it on steep margin - by putting up a little cash we can take a big position. This allows us to make big profits on small price changes with little cash up front.
This is just the basics and does not cover all the possible strategies. Please don't go out trading futures and options based on my explanation alone.
More explanation here: You must be logged in to see this link.
and here:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog |
Edited by - jadedragon on 09/10/2008 00:46:57 |
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byro007
Penny Collector Member
USA
399 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2008 : 01:23:25
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| I have played in the futures market with silver, corn and soybeans. When you are buying one contract of silver at 5,000 ounces all you have to do is put up the margin requirement. If you are playing silver long and say it goes up .36 you profit 1,800.00 on that contract if you sell it. But also said if u have a long and it goes down .36 you loose 1,800.00. So you really have to keep your eye on the markets. |
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Silver Dropped Again
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