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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 12/29/2006 : 17:29:13
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Copper price slide not setting off economic alarm bells
The price of copper – often seen as one of the best barometers of economic growth – may have dropped to an eight-month low, but few analysts are labelling the slide as a harbinger of hard times ahead.
Copper, sometimes referred to as Dr. Copper because it is said to hold an advanced degree in economics, dropped to $2.90 (U.S.) a pound yesterday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and it has been trading below $3 during the past week after reaching a record level of almost $4 a pound in May. It began 2003 at 71 cents a pound.
Worrisome to commodity traders is that the futures price has declined below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
As a leading economic indicator, copper plays a critical role because of its widespread use in housing and construction, in the electrical distribution, telecommunications and the automotive industries and in the manufacture of large and small appliances.
"While most mining companies expect copper prices to ease in 2007 and 2008, prices are expected to remain quite lucrative over the medium term and well above the $1.01 (U.S.) average of the 1990s," according to a recent report by Bank of Nova Scotia. At recent prices, the profit margin for the industry is 157 per cent above the average world total costs, it said.
However, copper inventories have been rising partly as a result of the U.S. housing recession and the slowing automotive industry, analysts say. The average U.S. home contains about 400 pounds of the metal, according to Bloomberg.
With copper prices still 40 per cent higher than a year ago, there has been downward pressure on prices as a result of year-end profit-taking, said Bart Melek, a commodity analyst with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
The weakness in copper is not really a worry because nickel and zinc remain firm and commodities generally are not signalling an imminent U.S. recession, said Paul Taylor, the chief investment officer for BMO Harris Private Banking. Its funds are overweight gold and precious metals and investments in the materials sector have been reduced as the funds enter 2007 with a cautious profile, he said. "We have deliberately and continuously ratcheted back the risk profile of our Canadian equity portfolio over the past 18 months."
Among the copper plays, UBS Securities Canada Inc. analyst Tony Lesiak has a "buy" recommendation for Inmet Mining Corp. because of its exposure to zinc and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 12/29/2006 : 17:40:36
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China's copper production capacity rising too fast
China's National Development and Reform Commission said Friday that domestic copper smelting capacity is still being expanded too rapidly and again asked local governments to follow existing guidelines aimed at preventing the establishment of small smelters.
Although investment in copper smelting has been slowing down in the second half of this year, total production capacity under construction is still too big, posing serious challenges to natural resources, the country's top economic planning body said on its Web site.
Fixed-asset investment in the copper smelting sector in January-October totaled CNY8.08 billion (US$1.04 billion), up 72% on year, the NDRC said.
The growth rate, though lower than in the first half, has resulted in surging investment in the copper mining sector, of which the total investment more than doubled to CNY3.37 billion during the same period.
The NDRC's guidelines, which took effect July 1, are aimed at curbing soaring investment in the copper smelting sector triggered by high copper prices in the first half of this year.
Copper prices hit an all-time high of $8,000 a metric ton in May.
The guidelines require copper smelters' capacity per smelting unit to reach 100,000 tons a year, the smelters' own mining resources to make up at least 25% of their total raw material use, and at least 35% of the financing for new projects to originate from the smelter.
The guidelines also include environmental standards and order outdated smelting capacity to be shut down.
The NDRC restated the guidelines Friday on its Web site, saying if investment can't be effectively curbed, the industry will have to "make bricks without straw."
China, the world's biggest copper consumer, needs to source most of the ore, or copper concentrate, it consumes from overseas.
The lack of sufficient copper concentrate has put smelters at a disadvantage in annual negotiations with international miners for copper treatment and refining charges.
Chinese smelters have recently accepted a TC of $60/ton and RC of $6 cents a pound for the 2007 contract term, without a key profit-sharing scheme.
Analysts said a more than 33% fall from this year's TC/RC and the absence of the price participation clause will seriously impact smelters' revenues next year.
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Zambia: Copper production at Mopani's Nkana copper mine halted
Zambian copper and cobalt producer Mopani Copper Mines, or MCM, has been hit by fresh flooding at its main underground shafts at Nkana mine in Zambia's copper belt province, an industry official told Friday.
According to an official with Zambia's ministry of Mines and Minerals Development, fresh floods have invaded the underground section of the Nkana mine since Wednesday this week and damaged more water pipes.
Nkana mine is one of the two underground mines owned by MCM, the other one is the Mufulira underground copper mine.
MCM, helped by emergency services from its Mufulira division and other neighboring mines, had managed to control the flooding earlier this month and was already assessing the pipes when this setback occurred.
MCM had expected to replace the pipes and resume output as early as January, the official said.
MCM is a joint venture between Canada-based First Quantum Minerals (FM.T) and Switzerland-based Glencore international AG.
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Edited by - pencilvanian on 12/29/2006 17:43:31 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 12/29/2006 : 18:02:03
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China tax cut on nickel unlikely to spur imports
A tax reduction on imports of refined nickel in China is unlikely to spur inflow because of high world prices, trading sources said on Thursday.
China will halve in January the tax on imports of refined nickel to 1 per cent from 2 per cent, the finance ministry said on its website. The move reflects a need for imports to support a mushrooming economy in China, which consumes more than 10 per cent of the world's nickel, a metal used for stainless steel production and in the plating industry.
"I don't think the one percentage decline will impact much on China's imports. The trade volume of the metal does depend on spot demand in the country," said a Shanghai-based trader at an international trading house.
World nickel prices hit a record high of $34,950 a tonne on Dec 15.
The metal traded at $33,550 a tonne on Thursday, having more than doubled in price this year. Higher world prices have reduced Chinese demand for imported nickel as some small and medium-scaled stainless steel mills and plating factories reduce production of nickel-base products.
"You just look at our sales, which have halved from 2005," a manager at a trading firm in China's northern Inner Mongolia region said of reduced Chinese demand for imported nickel. The trading firm prefered not to keep any stocks of refined nickel for spot sales, he said.
It kept more than 120 tonnes of refined nickel in stocks for spot sales in previous two years. Costs of importing refined nickel were more than 320,000 yuan ($40,952) a tonne versus sales prices at about 315,000 yuan in Shanghai on Thursday, traders estimated.
But China still imported 7.6 per cent more refined nickel to 86,908 tonnes in the first 11 months this year as it does not produce enough for its consumption.
"The government wants to encourage imports. The price of nickel is high and really has hurt trade," a trader at a Shanghai-based firm said.
Traders said Beijing this year had already given a preferential tax of 1 per cent to many importers on refined nickel to encourage inflow.
Overseas suppliers were offering Russian metal at premiums of $300 to $400 a tonne over cash prices of the London Metal Exchange nickel for delivery in 2007 to Chinese ports, against $250 to $350 this year, traders said. Chinese buyers were seeking premiums below $300.
Beijing also would introduce a 5 per cent tax on exports of tungsten and ammonium paratung state, and a 15 per cent tax on export of indium, scrap indium and indium powder, the ministry said on its website.
A new 15 per cent tax on exports of unwrought molybdenum, scrap molybdenum and molybdenum powder would take effect in January, the ministry said.
China is the world's top supplier of tungsten and molybdenum, both used to strengthen steel. Higher taxes could raise price requirements from Chinese exporters and that may drive up world prices.
"We are watching the market and then will decide what to do," said an official at Jinduicheng Molybdenum Mining Corp, the country's top producer of the metal. Industry officials had also expected Beijing to introduce a 5 per cent tax on exports of aluminium billet in 2007 but the alloy was not included on the latest list. The export tax for antimony would be left unchanged at 5.0 per cent, the ministry said.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/02/2007 : 16:01:56
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Resources sector set for choppy ride
Mining companies are set to continue to enjoy boom conditions in 2007, although volatility in metals and minerals markets is likely.
But analysts say company bottom lines should still benefit, even though commodity prices are likely to be choppy over the next 12 months as US economic growth slows down and the market eyes the impact on emerging markets like China.
Economic forecaster and analyst BIS Shrapnel has forecast the mining boom has at least one of two more years to run, with investment forecast to rise another 11 per cent over the next two years and peak in 2007/08.
High commodity prices will be sustained into 2007, though some easing is to be expected after the record levels of 2006, it says in a report titled Mining in Australia, 2006 to 2010.
Shaw Stockbroking analyst John Colnan says commodity supply issues are still going to be a key feature of 2007.
"In 2007 we still believe that supply will be restricted but demand will stay strong, and therefore deficits will remain," he explained.
"Over the course of the year we'll be monitoring how quickly supply is coming through and the big new projects, but we don't think a lot of that will hit until 2008."
"Volatile" is the best way to describe how he expects commodity prices to fare over the next 12 months, he says.
"It's hard to project where these prices are going because they're at such abnormal levels, but we just expected ongoing volatility in prices and ongoing buoyancy, gradually easing in 2008/09."
The government's commodities forecaster commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) expects metals and mineral exports to grow 31 per cent to $69.3 billion, reflecting continued strong world demand and modest growth in supply.
"Following significant rises in 2005/06, further price increases in 2006/07 are forecast for many mineral commodities, including iron ore, gold, aluminium, nickel, copper and zinc," it said in the December issue of Australian Commodities.
"In addition to higher prices, the volume of Australian mineral resources exports, in aggregate, is forecast to rise markedly in 2006/07."
Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt said he expects gold to rise to around $US670 per ounce by the middle of 2007, from its current price which is hovering around $US620.
But one factor on the horizon causing worry to market-watchers is the impact on China of slowing US growth.
US real gross domestic product growth was 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2006, compared to growth of 4.2 per cent in the same period last year.
It is China's voracious appetite for resources as its economic development hurtles forward at lightening speed that has formed the basis the mining boom of the last two years.
But in addition to China, Mr Colnan says commodity prices will also depend on how the economies of other countries like India and Brazil shape up.
"These emerging economies, their commodity consumption is huge as they modernise," he said.
ABN Amro analyst Rob Clifford says that in 2007 there will be a mix of good and bad news.
"As a house, we think that gold is going to go up, we think base metals are going to generally track downwards, but not step down," he explained.
"Iron ore we think is going to be robust for another two years, so it will be 2009 before we see a lower price than today."
Ratings agency Fitch Ratings predicts steel prices will also rise accordingly.
"In the first half of 2007, China's domestic prices should rise with re-stocking, production discipline and continued robust demand from the transportation and construction sectors, as well as consumer durables and building associated with the 2008 Olympic Games," Fitch said in its Steel Outlook released this month.
Analysts will be watching closely for new projects and sources of supply, especially in nickel and zinc, as projects are delayed or abandoned due to higher costs, staff and equipment shortages as producers worldwide ramp up activities.
One example is BHP Billiton's Ravensthorpe Nickel Project, which the mining giant said last month would see its budget more than double to $US2.2 billion ($A2.8 billion).
Explorers are working overtime to try to identify new areas to drill, with total Australia's exploration spend in 2005/06 up 21 per cent at $2.5 billion, according to the October Minerals and Energy report by the ABARE.
The number is 13 per cent above the annual average for the last 25 years, and all commodity categories recorded increases.
Among the base metals, Mr Clifford believes nickel and zinc will be more positive than aluminium, although all will slightly track downwards, due to a lack of major new projects coming through.
But the key to investing next year, Mr Clifford says, will be picking the right stocks.
"The theme for 2007 in terms of stocks is being selective about it because with the commodity price run up you could buy almost anything and it would give you decent returns," Mr Clifford said.
"2007 is about picking the right stocks, the right commodities, the right assets to achieve performance."
In a volatile environment, Mr Clifford says larger, diversified plays are the right place to be.
"We've seen BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto significantly underperform many pure-play stocks that have arguably lower quality assets ... because they have traded as tokens of global growth," he said.
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Weak dollar situation expected to keep metals on a higher side
Both US and Chinese economies have a slowing momentum and if that accelerates, it will be poor for metal demand. However, if the dollar remains weak, it is expected to keep the metals on the higher side, according international trading company MMTC. "The coming year could see prices maintain its levels if not climb further," said an MMTC official.
Labour strikes
Jon Bergtheil, vice-president, JP Morgan Securities, London, is expecting softer prices. He said, "2007 is unlikely to see as much production losses from strikes as 2006 as so many labour negotiations have now been settled and sal-ary and bonus benchmarks have thereby been set for those still to come."
In copper, the projected demand and supply would be at par, if supply disruptions did not take place. Disruptions in 2006 saw a minor jumps in the LME price in the early half of the year, which generated fund interest and further inflated the price to current levels of over $6,800 per tonne.
The coming year is expected to see a softening of prices in the second half, when supply concerns ease. The average price range is seen at $6,700 – $7,000, according to Ashish Karel, re-search analyst, Man Financial. Zinc and tin, the second and third-best perform-ing metals in the year are, however, likely to stay high in 2007.
"High labour and equipment costs in zinc mines outside China may delay the start of new projects causing supply problems," said Mr Karel. Globally, zinc consumption far exceeds production. In India, consumption is estimated to go up to 4.6 lakh tonnes in India from 4 lakh tonnes in 2007. Zinc could see an average price range of $4,000 – $4,400 per tonne.
New mines & expansions
The bull market is four years old, which has allowed enough time for most metals to look forward to production increases of between 6% and 8% in 2007 compared to typical demand growth rates of 4.5%, pointed out Mr Bergtheil. Mine capacities that were working at less than 50% capacity, are also pushing to increase its capacity utilisation above 90%.
Fund inflow
Money-inflow is highly unlikely to be as strong into commodity funds in 2007 compared to 2006. If we get actual outflows, that would be very bearish. Oil prices would have a bearing on the dollar, and thus affect the dollar price of the metals.
The India story
Much of the high demand expectations in the market have centred around growth in India and China. With recent Indian industrial production growth having been way below forecasts, India is now the swing factor. If both China and India show a loss of economic momentum in the first half of 2007, that will be poor for metals.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 01/02/2007 : 21:23:27
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Industrial metals have gone up MUCH more last year than the PMs.
Ranked returns, year-to-date
Nickel +200.1%
Zinc +152.3
Lead +60.8
Corn +54.2
Copper +52.3
Silver +42.7
Wheat +24.8
Kansas wheat +20.0
Gold +19.9
Aluminum +18.7
Cocoa -5.9
Gas oil -10.8
Brent crude -12.0
Feed cattle -12.7
Cotton -15.1
Crude oil -23.5
Gasoline -23.8
Sugar -34.5
Heating oil -36.5
Natural Gas -79.0
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FINANCIAL SERVICES
________________________
Burn paper dollars before you melt coins. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2007 : 19:05:33
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Excerpt
The market does not like to hear of any potential supply disruptions to the nickel supply chain. While Sherritt's Moa Bay operations shut down for heavy rain last month, the word didn't reach the market until after operations resumed, and the market did not react. Today's news that Australia's main producers of nickel had to shut down for similar reasons, on top of the news from Indonesia and Canada, spooked the market and spurred some fund interest. LME inventories started 2006 at 35,742 tonnes, fell below 10,000 tonnes on July 4th, and have basically fought to stay in the 4 - 7000 tonne range ever since. While the other metals fell, nickel trading on the London Metal Exchange ended the day at $15.49/lb ($34,150/tonne)
China headline only - "China January-November year-on-year increase of 36.8% nickel products to 24,000 tons" (reference exports)
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Copper Falls in London on Speculation Prices Are Exaggerated
By Chanyapr0n Chanjaroen
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped, posting the largest three-day loss since October 2004, as investors speculated prices are still exaggerated given a weaker demand outlook for the metal used in wires and pipes.
The metal's decline below $6,000 a metric ton yesterday, for the first time since April, suggested a technical weakness that will attract more selling, said analysts including Phil Roberts at Barclays Capital in London. Construction spending in the U.S., the world's second-largest copper user, fell in November for a third month, the Commerce Department said yesterday.
``This is just brutal,'' said Randy North, a London-based trader at RBC Capital Markets, a London Metal Exchange member. ``People are just standing aside, waiting for systematic funds to finish selling off. It seems to be a one-way train.''
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME fell $169, or 2.9 percent, to $5,686 a metric ton as of 11:44 a.m. local time. It earlier dropped to $5,660, the lowest since April 5. The metal has slipped 10 percent since trading began on Jan. 2, the largest three-day drop since October, 2004.
The price has fallen 34 percent from a record $8,800 on May 11. Stockpiles more than doubled last year, with most gains in the U.S., suggesting demand growth slowed there. China is the largest copper user.
``A lot of it revolves around the weakness in the North American market in the last couple of months,'' said Peter Kettle, research director at London-based metals consultant CRU.
Copper producers including Codelco, the world's largest, and BHP Billiton Ltd. are raising output to take advantage of prices that are still above historical averages. Copper has averaged $2,390 a ton on a monthly basis since 1986 in London.
Stockpiles `Low
Stockpiles rose 625 tons, or 0.3 percent, to 193,175 tons, the LME reported today. That's the highest since March 2004. the stockpiles are ``very low'' by historical standards, CRU's Kettle said. Stockpiles reported by the LME have averaged about 333,000 tons on a monthly basis since 1987.
``If stocks start to come down again, then we'd see a rebound,'' said Robin Bhar, a metals analyst at UBS Ltd. Still, copper may extend its decline to about $5,500, he said.
Mining stocks dropped. BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner by market value, fell as much as 4.9 percent. Xstrata Plc, a copper and zinc miner, lost as much as 6.1 percent.
Nickel was the only metal to gain on the LME, rising as much as $450, or 1.4 percent, to $33,200 a ton. It was supported by mine disruptions in Australia, the world's second-biggest nickel producer by 2005 output, caused by heavy rain.
Pit operations at mines in BHP's Nickel West division in Western Australia halted, Emma Meade, a spokeswoman for the Melbourne-based company, said today. Minara Resources Ltd. stopped output at its Murrin Murrin mine after 75 millimeters (3 inches) of rain, spokesman Willie Rowe said from Perth.
Stainless Steel
``The nickel market doesn't tend to like interruptions of any kind,'' James Wilson, a resource analyst at D.J. Carmichael & Co., said from Perth.
Stockpiles of nickel, used in stainless steel, dropped 5.1 percent to 6,234 tons, a third consecutive daily decline, the LME said today. That's less than two days of global consumption.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum dropped $30 to $2,710 a ton, lead slipped $70 to $1,650 and tin declined $150 to $10,750. Zinc fell $134 to $4,015.
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Edited by - pencilvanian on 01/04/2007 19:18:21 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2007 : 19:13:24
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BHP, Minara Halt Output at Australian Nickel Mines (Update7)
By Madelene Pearson
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd. and Minara Resources Ltd., Australia's two largest nickel producers, halted output at mines after heavy rain, which may add to supply shortages that have driven prices to a 19-year high.
Pit operations at the mines in BHP's Nickel West division, the third-largest producer of nickel in concentrate, in Western Australia have halted, Emma Meade, spokeswoman for Melbourne- based BHP said by phone today. Minara stopped output at its Murrin Murrin mine after 75 millimeters (3 inches) of rain, spokesman Willie Rowe said from Perth.
Nickel prices reached a peak in December as China's rising demand for stainless steel helped cause a supply shortfall. Use of the metal will outstrip supply by 57,000 metric tons this year, according to BHP, the world's largest mining company.
``The nickel market doesn't tend to like interruptions of any kind,'' James Wilson, resource analyst at D.J. Carmichael & Co., said from Perth. ``Any kind of interruption to production or anything like that, the market tends to react badly to those and the price of nickel tends to go up.''
Nickel for three month delivery rose $275, or 0.9 percent, to $32,750 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange yesterday amid forecasts of downpours in Australia's biggest nickel mining area by the nation's Bureau of Meteorology. The metal surged 147 percent last year.
Shares Drop
Shares in Minara, 51 percent owned by Glencore International AG, dropped 31 cents, or 5.5 percent, to A$5.30 on the Australian Stock Exchange at the 4:10 p.m. close of trade in Sydney. Zug, Switzerland-based Glencore is the world's largest commodity trader.
BHP shares fell A$1.11, or 4.4 percent, to A$24.37. A 7.7 percent drop in copper prices in New York yesterday also dragged on the mining company.
A deep, low weather system, formed out of what was Cyclone Isobel, produced ``unseasonally heavy'' rain and ``localized flooding'' in Western Australia's south, where Nickel West's Mt. Keith and Leinster mines are located, the bureau said. Falls of 10 to 20 millimeters are forecast for later today.
``When the ground gets too soft they obviously can't move the big equipment around safely,'' BHP's Meade said in reference to the closed mine pits.
As much as 44 millimeters of rain fell through to 6 a.m. Perth time today at the town of Leonora, located about 200 kilometers (124 miles) south of the Leinster mine, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its Web site.
Ravensthorpe Prepares
BHP's $2.2 billion Ravensthorpe nickel project to the south of the Leinster and Mt. Keith mines, is ``tying down'' in preparation for the rain, Meade said. Ravensthorpe is due to start production next year.
The poor weather had also slowed some trucking of ore for Mincor Resources NL's four underground nickel mines in the area, Steve Cowle, chief operating officer with Mincor said. Still, he said it wouldn't affect production for the month.
Jubilee Mines NL and Sally Malay Mining Ltd., which also mine nickel in the area, said the rains hadn't disrupted their operations. A Jubilee spokeswoman said it was ``business as usual,'' at its operations. Richard Jordinson, the chief operating officer at Sally Malay, said there had been no major disruptions at its mine.
Open pit mining at Newcrest Mining Ltd.'s Telfer mine has now resumed after being suspended last night because of rain, a spokeswoman for Australia's largest gold mining company said. Telfer is located in the state's north.
Short Term
``The shutdown's only going to be short term,'' said Gary Armor, who helps manage $2.9 billion at AMP Ltd. in Sydney. ``It happens quite a lot this time of the year,'' referring to stoppages brought about by rains, he said.
Cyclone Isobel forced Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and Santos Ltd. to shut down facilities accounting for almost half of Australia's oil output yesterday as it passed near the nation's main crude producing areas.
Processing operations at the Murrin Murrin mine, 40 percent owned by Glencore, won't be affected by the rain as the company has ``significant amounts'' of ore inventories, Minara's Rowe said.
The rain hadn't affected operations at BHP's Kambalda concentrator or the Kalgoorlie smelter yesterday, Meade said.
Australia was the second-biggest nickel producer in the world in 2005.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/08/2007 : 16:11:18
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And now, the bad news...
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Falling copper price sounds alarm bells for other metals
The tumbling price of copper, which hit a new low on Friday, is causing concern that the price of other base metals is about to plummet.
The price of copper has fallen 36 per cent since its peak last May of $8,800 per tonne. On Friday, it closed at $5,611, exposing copper miners to lower earnings after a record year.
There are fears that weakening demand from the American housing and carmaking sectors will put further pressure on metals prices.
The long bull run for base metals pushed all the leading contracts to record highs on the London Metal Exchange last year and mining companies benefited as their share prices soared.
Analysts are predicting that further falls are likely, with a number of leading brokerages forecasting that copper will end the year at less than $5,000 a tonne — about the same level that it was at in January 2006. As the copper price has fallen, leading miners have suffered. When copper hit its peak on May 11, BHP Billiton's share price was £12.12, but it has fallen 26 per cent to 890p. Rio Tinto's share price has fallen 24 per cent to £25.31 in the same period.
The other major metals, including aluminium, zinc, lead and nickel, have been largely insulated from serious price falls, but this may be about to change. Where copper leads, generally the other metals follow.
Nick Moore, analyst at ABN Amro, said: "Copper was in the vanguard leading prices up at the start of the boom and, as the flagship metal, it is likely to lead the others lower in the future."
While this is bad news for mining companies,
large industrial consumers will be breathing a sigh of relief.
They have been battered by high raw material prices that have eaten into margins.
There are a number of factors contributing to copper's decline.
The first is concern about the state of the global economy and in particular weakness in the American housing and car markets, which are large consumers of copper.
China, which accounts for 22 per cent of global demand for copper, is another factor.
The fast-growing country is sourcing more copper from within its own borders and has been running down stockpiles.
Another issue to worry investors is the growing surplus of the metal.
Miners have rushed to ramp up production to take advantage of the high prices and this is leading to oversupply. Similar problems are likely to beset the other metals, which has led to bearish forecasts from analysts.
Ed Meir, an analyst with Man Financial, believes that copper may be reaching the end of its decline, but not the other metals "which have barely corrected and are still at very high prices".
Aluminium closed on Friday at $2,610, down 3.3 per cent on Thursday, while nickel fell 3.2 per cent to $33,100 and tin was down 2.5 per cent to $10,600.
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LME zinc, nickel and lead drop; volatility expected
London Metal Exchange zinc, nickel and lead fell sharply Monday driven by follow-through fund selling and activity ahead of the rebalancing of a major index, with traders expecting price volatility to remain a key feature this week.
"We saw a continuation from last week's sell-off" in Monday's drop, said a LME trader, with "sell the rallies" the prevailing sentiment. Three-month nickel, zinc, and lead dropped Monday between 2%-3%, respectively.
Fund-selling triggered stops on the way down, which accelerated the fall, the LME trader said. An increase in stock levels for each of the metals Monday, as well as the smaller liquidity of those markets, exacerbated the impact of the selling pressure, analysts added.
Monday is the first real trading day of 2007, with many market participants returning after the long holiday and this added to liquidity, said Michael Widmer of Calyon.
Moreover, analysts pointed to the rebalancing of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Fund as adding to price pressure.
The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index rebalancing begins after Monday's determination date and will be fully implemented on Jan. 16. The new target weights were approved by the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Oversight Committee in July 2006.
Rebalancing and reweighting means that, in general, the index may reallocate out of commodities that have appreciated in value and into commodities that have underperformed.
LME zinc and nickel are particularly affected by the rebalancing of the DJ-AIGCI Fund as the two metals were particularly strong performers in 2006. Nickel and zinc increased around 135% and 110%, respectively, during 2006.
According to DJ-AIG, zinc's weighting for 2007 is 2.798069%, up from 2006's weighting of 2.702377%, while nickel's 2007 weighting is 2.715318%, up slightly from 2.659153% in 2006.
"Further weakness looks assured this week as the DJ-AIG index is reweighted with heavy selling of nickel and zinc in particular expected," said UBS in a note.
However, the LME trader said the concern is overdone. "I think prices will begin to stabilize and consolidate after the latest shake-out because they are now closer to fairer values," said the trader.
Barclays Capital said in a note that the issue of rebalancing "has been blown up out of all proportion" since the amount of selling is relatively small compared with typical market volumes and the process of reweighting itself is very transparent.
Elsewhere, bargain-hunting and technical buying helped push LME three-month aluminium and copper prices off their earlier lows, another LME trader said. Aluminium is looking to consolidate after falling nearly 10% since the start of 2007, while copper prices are severely oversold after falling over 10% from the start of 2007, the LME trader added.
LME copper pushed up nearly 3% from Monday's low of $5,430/ton to a PM kerb of $5,606/ton, and aluminium traded to a PM kerb of $2,625/ton, up from Friday's close of $2,610/ton.
Prices in dollar a metric ton.
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Friday PM kerb
Copper 5606.0-5607.0 Dn 4
Lead 1555.0-1557.0 Dn 65
Zinc 3720.0-3725.0 Dn 190
Aluminium 2610.0-2613.0 Up 5
Nickel 31400.0-31450.0 Dn 1675
Tin 10350.0-10400.0 Dn 250
.......Down now, down for good? Not likely. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/11/2007 : 17:43:04
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Perhaps more commentary than news, but still worth considering.
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BASE METAL BOGIE MAN
BY ROB KIRBY
I’ve taken particular note of how the prices of most of the base metals have been “HAMMERED” lately.
In fact, I’ve been shaking my head by the number of “experts” being trotted out on CNBC and ROB TV making the claim that copper inventories have now got a supply overhang and how they’ve even got people believing there might be a commodity price implosion due to these “ballooning inventories” – e.g. see Clive Maund.
To his credit, Mr. Maund’s short term prognostication – that being for metals prices to decline – is very accurate.
But let’s examine his analysis:
While copper inventories have empirically and factually gone up in the past year – they are still CRITICALLY low. Here’s reality as to copper inventories You must be logged in to see this link.
1 year, But take a look at 5 yr.,
...(I will just post the link, I don't want to take up too much space)
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Interestingly, according to Goldman Sachs and reported by Forbes,
“China's imports of copper are expected to increase in the current quarter, offsetting lower demand for the metal in the US.”
So What’s Really Going On?
The recent build in global copper inventories has been a U.S. event, which coincidentally happens to be VERY consistent with a slowing U.S. housing market.
“Goldman Sachs said despite the market pushing prices lower over supply concerns, the picture is not quite as straightforward as headline stock numbers suggest, since nearly all of the build up in stocks has been in the US.”
The Forbes article goes on to explain that,
“Chinese wire and pipe manufacturers have recently been holding off purchases of imported copper until prices move lower.”
And,
“They said the market is noticeably stronger in Asia, and particularly China, and this is reflected in the premiums being paid there.”
The reality is that in addition to the U.S. housing market “slowing” – the Chinese have also (strategically timed their purchases, perhaps?) remained ‘out of the market’ - temporarily. So, despite all the dire predictions of ballooning inventories and commodity price implosions –
if one stops and considers that base metals are essential requirements for the build out of INFRASTRUCTURE in Asia – the odds of continued price weakness appear somewhat mitigated unless the fundamental picture in Asia changes.
The Story Behind The Story
In 1970-71, the price of copper zoomed from about 50 cents to $1.25 per lb. This sounds cheap, but the US dollar back then was at least five times bigger.
So
if you put back the inroads of inflation by dividing the present price of $2.64 by five, we see that the present price of copper in 1970 dollars is about 53 cents.
This is not expensive, except in the opinion of the Federal Reserve which is trying to hide the fact that the buying power of the Federal Reserve Note is collapsing.
In 1999, the price of copper was 80 cents.
If we go back to that level, (as my friend Rhody points out - using derivatives, anything is possible), there won't be a copper mine left standing in the world.
The fact that every commodity has recently been hit, whether it is scarce or not, oversold or not, or already cheap (like oil) suggests we are entering a period of extreme dollar instability when the Monetary Interests will be relentless in their programmed selling of real assets to maintain the illusion that paper assets are the superior hold. The excuse for dollar strength this time was employment data which beat expectations, but was a mere 17,000 over the level that signals an outright recession [150,000 per month] in the United States, and is insufficient to provide jobs as fast as immigration rates import workers [200,000 per month is needed for that].
Price movements in everything from the Dollar to base and precious metals experienced severe gyrations as a result – setting up [or painting, perhaps?] charts that technically oriented fund managers religiously follow for sharp sell-offs or in the case of the Dollar - rallies.
The reality is this;
the powers that be can create any graph pattern they want with the short term application of derivatives.
Now stop and consider why J.P. Morgan Chase really has a derivatives book now [at Q3 / 06] totaling more than 63 TRILLION in notional value – with growth in the latest quarter of 5.5 Trillion alone.
Folks, that’s a Derivatives Book in one bank –
with a market cap of 165 billion –
of over 63 TRILLION, or 5 x the size of the entire GDP of the U.S.A.!!!
Amazingly, or perhaps not, this unregulated obscenity has the blessing of the Federal Reserve, hmmmm?
When one stops and considers that all US government economic statistics are questionable, is it any wonder that we’ve witnessed three false breakdowns in silver and gold over the past 7 months?
If nothing else, this should serve as food for thought before you pitch all of your base metals stocks.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/11/2007 : 17:51:24
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LME nickel rallies on fund buying
Price rises across the London Metal Exchange base metals complex Thursday helped boost nickel over 7% to just shy of its record high, with speculative fund activity continuing to add major volatility to all the base metals.
Three-month nickel jumped over 7% to a session high of $34,900/ton, just shy of the metal's all-time high of $34,950/ton from Dec. 15, before retreating to a PM kerb of $33,450/ton.
"Speculative fund buying based on technicals has really pushed prices sharply higher," said a trader. The metal is benefiting from bullish sentiment across the base metals complex, the trader added.
In addition, low LME stocks and ongoing supply concerns underpin the price rally.
LME nickel stocks fell 156 metric tons to 6,300 tons Thursday, down around 80% on the year, according to LME data. In addition, LME data showed canceled warrants at 30% Thursday.
French nickel producer Eramet SA said Wednesday it has so far lost around 5,000 tons of metal output at its production site in New Caledonia due to a strike and other disruption.
Continuing strong nickel demand from stainless steel producers is helping to keep prices high, said John Meyer at Numis.
Analysts expect price volatility to continue during the ongoing Dow Jones-AIG commodity index fund rebalancing. The index rebalancing will be completed Jan. 16.
Three-month zinc, recently hit alongside nickel by the index rebalancing, pushed sharply higher on speculative activity as zinc stocks dropped by 425 tons to 93,825 tons Thursday.
Copper remained within Wednesday's range in choppy trading despite a substantial increase in LME stocks by 1,625 tons to 195,450 tons.
However, a trader said: "There are a large number of shorts in the market that may cover in the near term," adding: "If copper pushes past the $6,100/ton level, it could easily spike towards the 30-day moving average of $6,533/ton."
Meanwhile, aluminium staged a strong rally, jumping nearly 1.5% from Thursday. Many traders have said prices may rise sharply higher in the near future on a possible short squeeze as one dominant player continues to hold a significant long position of more than 40%.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/12/2007 : 21:47:33
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Base metals mood turns decidedly gloomy
Has the base metals boom gone bust?
It depends on your vantage point.
A transoceanic difference of opinion has developed over how metal prices are likely to shake out this year, amid the prospect of slowing world economic growth, new sources of supply coming on stream and an apparent cooling of the ardour of hedge funds and other speculators that helped drive most to record highs in 2006.
Analysts at the London office of ABN Amro Bank NV of the Netherlands, for instance, think the five-year bull market for base metals, fed in particular by demand from the burgeoning Chinese economy, has pretty much run out of snort. Bellwether copper – "the flagship industrial metal," as they called it – has led the way, falling about 20 per cent in the past three weeks and nearly 40 per cent from its record high last May of $4 (U.S.) a pound.
"In our view, we are witnessing the definitive end of the commodity price boom that began late in 2001," Nick Moore, Tim Huff and Rob Clifford said in a note to clients this week. "Prepare for a down year for commodities as markets move towards increasing supply surplus."
Indeed, the analysts said they think 2007 is just the first of what will likely turn out to be "a number of years of consecutive surplus."
As the causes of copper's "downfall," the ABN Amro analysts cited price-induced demand destruction, lower Chinese imports of refined copper – combined with higher domestic production by the new industrial superpower. They also cited a massive increase in copper inventories around the world, which now stand at 195,775 tonnes, up from the 31-year low of 25,525 tonnes to which they had slipped in July, 2005.
By contrast,
the view from Canada,
or parts of it,
is a little brighter.
Greg Barnes of TD Newcrest in Toronto, for instance, figures new records may be in store for several metals in 2007, even though he thinks that copper will continue to head down, at least for now.
"We do not count out zinc and nickel surpassing peak prices levels reached in 2006, but believe the copper price peaked last year," he said in a note to clients that carried the headline, "The aging metals bull market still has legs."
Mr. Barnes has raised his 2007 price forecasts for zinc and nickel to $1.80 (U.S.) a pound and $11.90 a pound, respectively, from $1.50 and $11, while cutting copper to $2.70 from $2.75.
However, he also figures the red metal could soon bounce back, "if Chinese buying returns to restock inventories once the Chinese New Year holidays have passed by the end of February."
The combined impact of China's emergence as a major base-metals consumer
and the mining industry's delayed response in bringing additional supplies on stream,
he added, means the bull market "still has room left to run."
Although he expects surpluses to emerge in the copper, aluminium and zinc markets over the next two years, he does not expect them to be large, "due to the lagging supply response."
China also is on the mind of metals analysts half a world away at Goldman Sachs's Australian affiliate, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, according to a Bloomberg News report yesterday.
In saying in a note to clients this week that they have cut their forecasts for copper prices in the first half of this year to an average of $2.78 a pound from $3.41, and for zinc to $1.88 a pound from $2.01, the analysts also suggested copper should enjoy a rebound courtesy of a "strong recovery" in Chinese consumption and what they anticipate will be continuing supply constraints.
"We regard the recent price falls as a temporary correction in a commodities environment which, generically, continues to benefit from accelerated demand growth courtesy of China, and a supply side that is struggling to meet that demand," the analysts said in the note. "Our view on the fundamentals for these metals is unchanged."
Based on this, the Goldman analysts left their copper and zinc price forecasts for the second half of this year unchanged at $3.40 and $1.81, respectively.
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 01/12/2007 : 23:16:09
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Lok at the relative sizes of the inventories in bookstores around the world in the following categories:
1. History
2. Current Events
3. The future
In the USA (where I live) the current events sections (especially "self-help" books are the clear majority.
In Europe (where I've looked at bookstores recently with this in mind) the History section is much larger.
In Asia (where I have only been to Japan, and that was not very recent) the future section is noticably large.
Why?
Europe had it is day, so history is interesting.
America is in its prime, so current events are best.
Asia can see clearly that the future will be better for them, so they read about the future.
What does any of this have to do with metal prices?
Well, those who are thinking about the future are by definition exercising foresight.
.................................................
A billiard ball dropped from 1,362 feet (height of the South Tower) in a
vacuum would require 9.22 seconds to hit the ground. How then did the
towers collapse in 10 seconds and 11.4 seconds, and why has not one
member of the mainstream media insisted on honest answers from the
government in this regard?
"The individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy
so monstrous [that] he cannot believe it exists."
- J. Edgar Hoover |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/13/2007 : 11:14:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Atheist
Lok at the relative sizes of the inventories in bookstores around the world in the following categories:
1. History
2. Current Events
3. The future
In the USA (where I live) the current events sections (especially "self-help" books are the clear majority.
In Europe (where I've looked at bookstores recently with this in mind) the History section is much larger.
In Asia (where I have only been to Japan, and that was not very recent) the future section is noticably large.
Why?
Europe had it is day, so history is interesting.
America is in its prime, so current events are best.
Asia can see clearly that the future will be better for them, so they read about the future.
What does any of this have to do with metal prices?
Well, those who are thinking about the future are by definition exercising foresight.
Not only foresight, but in Asia they are realizing that one's future is in one's own hands, and careful preparation is needed to reap the greatest benefit from the future.
With American readers, self help/current events shows, sadly, that mostAmericans are worried about today and giving little thought about tomorrow.
The 'live for today, put it on charge, worry about the cost when the bill comes' mentality is deeply ingrained in american culture, but the bill will come due someday, leaving most unable to pay up.
For European readers, if they are wise, reading about history is most beneficial IF they learn from the mistakes of the past, (like the folly of fiat money) and avoid such mistakes in the future.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/15/2007 : 19:23:15
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Chile December copper exports rise on year
Chile's copper exports totaled $2.15 billion last month, up 16.8% from $1.84 billion in December of 2005, the central bank reported Monday.
The figure took the annual export total to $33.34 billion, a surge of 82.1% from the $18.31 billion of 2005, reflecting the ongoing boom in the metal on world markets.
The slower rate of growth from last month reflects the recent slide in copper prices, but analysts estimate copper will continue to trade considerably above the long term average over the year.
Bouyed by the high price of copper and other commodities, Chile's trade surplus rose 13.7% to $1.41 billion in December from $1.24 billion in the same month last year, the central bank reported last week.
Backed by high commodities prices over the full year, the trade surplus more than doubled to $23.02 billion from $10.18 billion, matching a central bank estimate.
This year, the surplus will likely shrink to $19.9 billion, with exports stable and imports rising to $38.2 billion, according to the bank's estimates.
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China's copper concentrate imports drop 11% in 2006
China's copper concentrate imports fell 11% in 2006 to 3.61 million metric tons, preliminary data provided by the General Administration of Customs showed Monday.
In December, copper concentrate imports totaled 370,000 tons, it said. The customs department didn't provide an on-year change for December alone.
Copper concentrate imports in November were at 335,758 tons, down 20% on year.
China is a large importer of copper concentrate, sourcing most of its supplies from South America, Mongolia and Australia.
Import and export data for December and the whole year are due to be released around Jan. 25.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/16/2007 : 18:40:41
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LME nickel up; Market focus on aluminium
Trading was mixed on the London Metal Exchange Tuesday with nickel climbing as inventories fall, but the market's focus remains on aluminium and how much metal may be delivered on warrant Wednesday, market participants said.
Speculative buying, declining stocks, and ongoing supply concerns continue to support nickel prices, said analysts.
Three-month nickel maintained its strength throughout the day, hitting a session high of $34,700 a metric ton before retreating to a PM close of $33,600/ton.
LME nickel stocks fell 270 metric tons to 5,406 tons, according to the exchange's data.
Ongoing negotiations between diversified miner Xstrata and union workers at its Canadian nickel operations in Sudbury also add to price strength, analysts said. The current labor contract expires Jan. 31.
Elsewhere, three-month copper gained over 1% to a PM close of $5,710/ton, triggered by a fall in LME stocks by 2,550 metric tons to 196,900 tons.
However, one base metals analyst said the focus of the market remains on aluminium and on watching how the current squeeze in the market plays out on the Wednesday prompt date for January.
"People will be really interested to see whether the metal is delivered onto warrant or rolled-forward," the analyst noted.
LME data shows one or more market participants holds more than 40% of the futures positions open on the January prompt date, which is Wednesday.
Otherwise, the markets were steady with a reasonable amount of volume seen, the base metals analyst added.
Three-month tin remained within its recent range between $10,250 and $10,750/ton.
In news, the Indonesian government said Tuesday it isn't reissuing operating licenses to small-scale private tin smelters at its main tin deposit, contrary to recent market talk.
Dozens of private tin smelters on Bangka island were shut down last year by the police and will remain that way for an unspecified period while the government investigates their legality, said Simon Sembiring, director general for mining at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Indonesia will also issue new regulations governing the mining sector in March, under which only mining companies currently operating under contract of work arrangements with the government will be allowed to export metal ore, Sembiring told reporters.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2007 : 19:08:03
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LME nickel rises on supply concerns
London Metal Exchange nickel ended just off a fresh all-time high as the market took in talk that a cargo equivalent to one-fifth of the world's warehoused inventories of the metal could be at risk due to bad weather, brokers said.
A container ship damaged and drifting off the coast of the U.K. has at least 1,000 metric tons of nickel, sources familiar with the situation said, providing a short-term boost to an already tight market.
LME stocks stand at 5,322 tons. But because 744 tons are on canceled warrant – meaning they're accounted for and about to be drawn down – there's just 4,578 tons available to the market from warehouses. This is about one and a half days' global consumption.
MSC Napoli hasn't sunk, its owner U.K.-based Zodiac Maritime Agencies Ltd said, and is cracked rather than holed. Therefore the ship is likely to be recovered intact, meaning the impact of the news will likely be short-lived.
But speculative and trade buyers entered nickel, pushing prices to $36,050 a ton. "The market needs little excuse to push nickel higher," a broker said. This is a gain of 3% on the day and 7% up from Wednesday's low. So far this year, nickel prices have moved 20% higher.
Ending the kerb session at $35,700/ton, brokers said further gains are expected as fundamentals stay firm, with the market moving in uncharted territory.
Aluminium was quiet as the tightness in the nearby spreads continued, although the tomorrow-next backwardation eased to around $5-$6/ton. The market remains underpinned by a shortage of metal for immediate delivery, which has kept the nearby backwardation going, analysts said.
"LME stocks of aluminium at over 700,000 tons, the equivalent of eight days consumption, are higher than for the other base metals but the problem is that they appear to be tightly controlled," said UBS analyst Robin Bhar.
The other markets were subdued with little outright activity seen.
Copper was consolidating in a range above $5,600/ton before slipping at the end of the session in line with lower oil prices. A large rise in U.S. crude stockpiles is still weighing on prices.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2007 : 19:26:26
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Commodities rally is intact, says Deutsche Bank
JAN 15: Deutsche Bank AG, Europe’s biggest securities firm, said falling commodities prices in the past month don’t indicate the end of a rally that began five years ago, in contrast to a forecast from rival ABN Amro Holding NV.
Commodities prices are undergoing a “recurrent correction in a continuing bull run,” and could stay high for an extended period, the bank's Michael Lewis, Peter Richardson and other analysts said in a January 12 report.
Prices of nickel, zinc, gold and grains could rise further this year, the bank said.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities has fallen 9.6% since the end of November, and Dutch bank ABN Amro said on January 9 the slump was “the definitive end” of a rally in base metals.
Copper has declined 35% since reaching a record in May last year, and oil is down 32% since July. The supply-demand situation still provides “the basis for an extended period of margin expansion for producers as a result of elevated prices,” Deutsche's analysts said. Global economic growth will be “above trend,” and investors should favour metals such as nickel and zinc, which still face shortages.
Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, the Australian affiliate of the world’s most profitable investment bank, last week also said the recent fall in metal prices was a “temporary correction.”
An adjustment to the weightings of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity index had led funds to sell metals, and commodities would still benefit from Chinese demand and tight supplies, Goldman said.
Deutsche raised its price forecasts for nickel, used in stainless steel, by 62% for 2007 to $14.28 a pound, and by 110% for 2008 to $14.06 a pound.
Spot nickel prices averaged $10.96 a pound in London last year. The bank also increased its 2006 zinc forecast by 6.7% to $1.67 a pound. Rising demand from Chinese stainless-steel makers, and delays to the nickel projects of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce and BHP Billiton Ltd, the world’s largest and third-largest such mines under construction, means there will be a nickel deficit until 2009, the bank said.
The January 9 report from ABN's analysts led by London-based Nick Moore said the five-year price boom in industrial metals, such as copper and zinc, was set to end in 2007 as supplies rose. “We are witnessing the definitive end of the commodity price boom that began late in 2001,” it said. “Prepare for a down year for commodities as markets move toward increasing supply surplus.”
Still, Deutsche agrees with ABN that copper supplies are set to rise. It expects the price of the metal used in pipes and wires to fall on weaker US demand and increasing supplies from refiners. Deutsche cut its 2007 copper forecast by 10% to $2.70 a pound.
Gold prices should gain later in the year as Deutsche expects a weakening dollar will lead investors to find the precious metal more attractive as an alternative investment.
Jewellers and fabricators will also buy more of the metal, the bank said, predicting that gold prices will average $725 an ounce in 2007, versus $660 in 2006.
.......What we have here are differing opinions form different 'experts'.
A bull and bear can look at the same exact data
and come up with two differing ideas as to what the market will do.
Nobody really knows what the future holds,
but if the past is any guide, holding real assets will be of a benefit for those wise enough to get out of fiat and into physical assets.
I read on one blog, though I can't recall where, the discussion of hoarding nickels.
During a deflation, nickels hold their value as money,
During inflation, nickels increase in value for their metal content.
It seems like a win-win situation any way you cut it.
Hoarding coins is still a wiser move than holding dollar bills, in Zimbabwe when inflation began to run amok, those who could get coins held onto their coins and spent their paper dollars.
As the paper lost value the coins held their value as metal if not money. During inflationary times, this paper driving coins into hiding has happened many times in the past. Expect it to happen again in the future. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 01/18/2007 19:29:32 |
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2007 : 18:39:00
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LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The container ship MSC Napoli, with at least 1,000 tonnes of nickel on board, was being towed towards Devon's coast, the British coastguard told Reuters on Friday.
"It is heading towards the Devon coastline...she will be (there) about midnight tonight," spokesman Mark Clark said.
Earlier, South African stainless steel maker Columbus Stainless had confirmed that at least 1,000 tonnes of nickel was on board the vessel, which had been abandoned in the English Channel on Thursday due to stormy weather.
"We are trying to get her into Lime bay...a sheltered bay, so we can start the lightening of the vessel...take some of the cargo off," Clark said.
Columbus's mother company, Spain's Acerinox <ACX.MC>, also had nickel on board the vessel, Leata Geneade, import administrator at Columbus Stainless, told Reuters from Durban in South Africa.
"It was our material plus our mother company in Spain, we are owned by Acerinox <ACX.MC> in Spain and some of their material was also on the same vessel," Geneade said.
When asked if there was more than 1,000 tonnes on board the vessel Geneade said: "Yes."
The British-flagged MSC Napoli, 62,277 dead-weight tonnes, was holed on the starboard side in Thursday's storms, forcing the crew to take to a lifeboat, the British coastguard said. [ID:nL1867094]
The supplier of the metal, which was bound for Durban from Antwerp in Belgium, was UK-based Stratton Metal Resources, Geneade said.
The shipment was equivalent to nearly 20 percent of the total amount of nickel held in London Metal Exchange warehouses, which stand at 5,178 tonnes, or less than two days of global world consumption.
About two-thirds of world nickel output is used to make stainless steel and demand has bolstered nickel prices.
On Friday, nickel <MNI3> for delivery in three months closed at an all-time high of $36,300 a tonne, moving up from around $13,500 at the start of 2006. On Thursday, nickel was last indicated at $35,400/35,500.
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni27615:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
How to read a HoardCode:
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Edited by - Canadian_Nickle on 01/19/2007 18:40:19 |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 01/23/2007 : 19:59:37
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India: Customs duty cuts to curb prices
Alarmed by inflation touching a two-year high of 6.12 per cent, the government today reduced customs duty on a host of items such as cement, raw materials and capital goods to lower the cost of manufacturing and infrastructure development.
Customs duty has been lowered on specified capital goods and their parts, and winding wires from 12.5 per cent or 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent. Duty on portland cements has been totally removed from 12.5 per cent at present.
The customs tariff on project imports has been reduced from 12.5 per cent or 10 per cent now to 7.5 per cent. Further, airport development projects and 'Metro Rail projects would now be included in project imports and taxed at the rate of 7.5 per cent.
Moreover, import tariff on primary and semi-finished forms of copper, aluminium, zinc, tin, other base metals has been brought down from 7.5 per cent to 5 per cent. The duty on stainless steel and other alloy steel has been cut to 5 per cent from 7.5 per cent at present. Pipes and tubes of aluminium, copper and zinc would now attract a customs duty of 7.5 per cent from 12.5 per cent now.
"These changes will come into affect immediately," an official statement said.
The measures are aimed at curbing inflation, which rose to 6.12 per cent for the week ended January 6 on rise in prices of manufactured products, besides some food items and fuel.
The decision to customs duty assumes importance as Finance Minister P Chidambaram had recently said that certain manufacturing sectors were contributing to "core inflation" by jacking up the prices to benefit from the surging demand. He had said the government will take all necessary steps to check rising prices as inflation crossed the RBI's threshold limit of 5.5 per cent for this fiscal.
The decision also gains significance as the move comes just a month before the Budget for 2007-08, which is expected to further reduce import duties as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has committed to bring down tariffs at the ASEAN level.
According to the notifications issued, the government has also brought down import duties on inorganic chemicals, like halogens (fluorine, chlorine, bromine, iodine), sulphur, carbon, hydrogen, rare gases (nitrogen, oxygen, silicon, phosphorus) and alkali metals (sodium, calcium) from 10 per cent to 5 per cent.
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Base metals close higher on LME
London Metal Exchange nickel and tin extended their recent gains to hit fresh all-time highs Tuesday, with traders expecting the high prices to hold in the near-term until supply side problems are resolved.
Three-month nickel soared to a fresh record high of $38,300 a metric ton, extending earlier gains, on follow-through speculative buying, said Michael Skinner of Standard Bank. Low inventories, a large canceled warrant, and threats of a strike at Xstrata's Sudbury operations are supporting the tight market, Skinner said.
More than 1,000 unionized workers at Xstrata's Sudbury, Ontario, nickel mine have voted 98% in favor of a strike if a new labor agreement isn't reached by the end of the month.
Meanwhile, LME nickel stocks rose 12 metric tons to 5,064 tons Tuesday, with canceled warrants at roughly 25%. But, LME nickel stocks are down over 80% from year-ago levels.
In addition "the nickel cash to three-month backwardation has also widened over the last few days and is now over $2,500/ton," said Barclays Capital in a report.
Three-month tin surged to a fresh all-time high of $12,249/ton, before retreating to an afternoon kerb of $12,140/ton.
Technical momentum buying as well as Indonesian supply problems continue to bolster the market, analysts said. Indonesia is the world's largest tin producer.
In October, Indonesia's government shut down about 20 small-scale independent smelters more or less overnight, citing lack of proper licensing. Adding to price volatility has been the release of conflicting new reports over if and when some of these smelters will be re-opened.
So far, no official word has come from the central government.
In other metals, three-month aluminium extended its recent rally as stops were triggered, driven by options-related and momentum buying, says Michael Skinner of Standard Bank. Prices are heading towards the $2,900/ton strike price, Skinner noted.
Speculative and momentum buying has also led to very volatile trading in copper prices, said a trader. But the metal remains within its recent range of $5,450 and $5,500/ton.
In news, unionized workers at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP) Cerro Colorado copper mine in Chile are likely to turn down the company's wage offer, a union spokesman said Tuesday.
Cerro Colorado produced 90,464 tons of copper in 2005, according to data provided by the Consejo Minero mining trade group.
The Cerro Colorado union negotiating the contracts represents about 535 of a total of 700 workers. Current contracts expire Jan. 31.
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Nickel price up on low supply, Chinese stainless steel output – Numis
Nickel prices surged substantially higher to end last week at over 28,000 usd per ton on the London Metals Exchange (LME) as inventory levels fell to near all-time lows and continued strong demand was seen from Chinese stainless steel producers, Numis Securities in a research note.
Demand for nickel is principally linked to the production of stainless steel which makes up around 62 pct of nickel usage worldwide, particularly the 300 series with a 8-12 pct nickel content. China last year tried to push a lower grade nickel 200 series into the market due to high nickel prices – a move rejected by consumers as low grade stainless reduces anti-corrosive properties, the note said.
The LME has moved to dampen speculation and reduce market volatility although this may serve to maintain prices at a higher level for longer, Numis said.
Currently, nickel is nearly four times the price of copper and is the most profitable of the base metals to mine.
China became the world's largest producer of stainless steel last year with output of five mln metric tons, as more domestic production plants began operating, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on its website.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 02/05/2007 : 18:07:00
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Base metals news, Sorry I have been slow in adding to this thread, I was hoping metals would go up by not posting.
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Copper recovers from last Friday's slump amid decline in LME inventory
Copper recovered from last Friday's 4.6 pct slump as a large decline in LME inventories boosted sentiment.
But gains were limited by reports that workers at BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL – news – people )'s Cerro Colorado mine in Chile have called off their planned strike.
At 12.36 pm, LME copper for three-month delivery was up at 5360.00 usd a tonne against 5,345 usd at close yesterday.
'Metals are oversold and are due a corrective bounce,' said UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar.
He added, however, that he remains wary of recent increases in LME copper stocks, which have more than doubled since the start of the year.
The LME said earlier in a daily report that copper stocks held in its warehouses fell by 1,225 tonnes to total 214,025 tonnes, reversing the recent rising trend.
While this boosted sentiment in copper, news that workers at Cerro Colorado accepted a contract offer from management Sunday kept gains in check.
Copper prices plunged Friday as fund money exited the metals complex following reports of heavy losses at hedge fund Red Kite.
The fund is rumoured to have lost 20 pct at the start of January and has reportedly asked investors wishing to withdraw their money to give it a longer notice period.
'After Friday's sell-off the markets are likely to be increasingly nervous over the next few days but it will be interesting to see if these weaker prices prompt more trade buying,' said BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams.
He added that he would 'be surprised if the buying does not turn up'.
Elsewhere, zinc was up at 3,150 usd a tonne against 3,080 usd, recovering from Friday's 9 pct slump.
'Both copper and zinc were unnerved (Friday) by talk of looming surpluses in 2007 and easing tightness,' said Bhar.
He added the premium for cash zinc over the benchmark 3 month futures prices has narrowed sharply in recent weeks, indicating supply of the metal has improved.
Nickel was up at 37,900 usd a tonne against 37,400 usd, still supported by critically low stocks and robust demand.
Nickel was the only metal to close higher on Friday as the selloff in copper and zinc pressure the rest of the base metals complex.
LME stocks of nickel are at 3,222 tonnes, with only around 2,000 tonnes available to the market – equivalent to less than half a day of global consumption.
Nickel stocks are at their lowest levels since 1991.
In other metals, aluminium was up at 2,725 usd a tonne against 2,720 usd; lead was down at 1,620 usd against 1,630 usd while tin was up at 12,050 usd against 11,700 usd.
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Montana: Finds may extend life of mine by 5-10 years
An exploration project at the Troy Mine Complex in northwest Montana could extend the projected six- to seven-year life of the mine by another five to 10 years, officials with Revett Minerals say.
Early testing suggests the copper and silver ore reserves are a higher grade than the ones Revett is currently mining and milling, said Doug Ward, vice president of corporate development at Revett.
The resources are about 1,000 feet deeper in the earth.
"It's still very early, and we have to drill enough holes to connect the dots," Ward told the Missoulian newspaper, which reported on the mine's future prospects in Saturday's editions.
Ward said the mine employs 165 people whose jobs could be extended if the exploration program is successful. About 15 more test holes will be drilled.
He added it is unclear yet whether new permits would be required to mine the additional copper and silver.
Asarco, the prior operator at the Troy Mine, drilled a number of holes and estimated there were 11 million tons of resource south of the mine, Ward said, "and if it continues under the mine and this proves up underneath, there could be three or four times that."
Ward said a "ballpark" figure was that the unmined resource would deliver half copper and half silver.
Copper was selling for about $1 a pound, and silver for $4 an ounce, when the mine was shut down in 1993, Ward said.
"They were still making money on the mine, but just barely," he said. The company opted to leave minerals in the ground so that a future buyer could pay reclamation costs.
Revett bought the mine in 1999 and prices rose high enough for the company to reopen operations in 2004. Since then, prices have gone even higher – $2.50 a pound for copper and $13 an ounce for silver – to make it feasible to explore extending the mine's life, Ward said.
Since the company purchased the mine from Asarco in 1999, state regulators have increased the cleanup bond from $2.8 million to $12.3 million. The company has posted that bond, and has invested $7 million into an interest-bearing account to cover future cleanup costs.
But Revett and the state of Montana have squabbled over whether the company needs to pay for an environmental impact statement before Department of Environmental Quality regulators can approve a final reclamation plan for the mine.
DEQ says it must. Operators argue that if the mining changes substantially, an EIS on the current operations would be premature. Recently the company offered to pay for a scaled-back environmental assessment, but state regulators have not ruled on whether that would be adequate.
Environmentalists have sued the state in an attempt to force – and hasten – the EIS process.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 18:22:25
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This is going to effect the price of all metals.
I know I mentioned this prevoiusly, but it has more impact coming from an expert.
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Mining Manpower Crisis
Alf Field
6 Feb, 2007
There is a manpower crisis in the form of a skilled worker shortage that is having an adverse impact on the mining industry.
Whatever one is interested in, be it gold, silver, platinum, uranium, base metals, or other mining operations, this situation is impacting on all forms of mining.
It will influence the way investors view mining companies.
Current mining operations will struggle to maintain production while new projects will be delayed.
Most importantly, the skilled manpower crisis will slow the supply of newly mined metals to the market which will have implications for the prices of all metals.
To properly appreciate the situation one needs to understand that most metals, gold, silver, platinum, uranium, base metals and others have been in bear markets lasting 25, and in some cases 30, years.
During those bear market years there was an attrition of skilled mining manpower.
Young people looking for new careers carefully avoided the "No Go" areas of geology, mining engineering and other mining skills.
With declining student demand, Universities and colleges reduced or closed their geology and mining faculties.
The supply of new graduates to the mining industry has been dropping steadily and there is now only a trickle of graduates coming through the system.
During the past few years new bull markets have developed simultaneously in gold, silver, platinum, uranium and base metals. These bull markets have spawned a vast array of new companies, all looking to find new large deposits of their favourite metal and bring new projects on stream.
The demand for skilled workers in the mining industry has mushroomed.
Where will the additional skilled manpower come from?
Not only to find and develop new projects, but also to keep existing mining operations producing adequately?
Increasingly the words "production declines due to labour and infrastructure shortages" are appearing in company reports.
Delays in the preparation of Feasibility Studies are often being blamed on a "labour shortage".
There is an rising incidence of new projects being delayed and subjected to massively higher capital costs,
for example BHP's new Ravensthorpe Nickel mine where establishment costs have escalated from $1.1 billion to over $2.2 billion.
There is no firm indication as to when Ravensthorpe will come on stream.
The average age of the existing complement of skilled mining manpower has been rising and there is a steady loss of people as they reach retirement age.
Half the workers in the Canadian mining industry are between 40 and 54 years of age and 40% plan to retire in the next 8 years.
The supply of new graduates barely covers the retiree loss.
Another form of attrition in the skilled mining area is the loss of geologists and mining engineers to the investment industry.
The investment industry must deploy its research budgets in the most profitable and effective areas.
In the 1970's when resources were booming and mining stocks formed a large proportion of market capitalisation and volumes traded, stock brokers and investment houses carried large complements of mining analysts and mining merger and acquisition teams.
During the ensuing resources bear markets the trend in stock markets was towards industrial and technology stocks.
Investment industry research budgets were deployed accordingly.
Mining research was slashed and analysts skilled in the new hot areas were hired. By the turn of the century resources accounted for low single digit percentages in both market capitalisation and volumes traded on most stock markets. Mining analysts had become an endangered species.
With the emergence of firstly the bull market in precious metals followed more recently by bull markets in uranium and base metals, the situation has reversed. Mining's share of volume traded and market capitalisation on world stock exchanges has been increasing steadily, as has merger and acquisition activity. The investment industry has been caught short of mining analysts and mining M&A teams.
Good mining analysts require special skills and they cannot be created quickly. The investment industry's solution has been to hire geologists and engineers to work with financial analysts to produce the necessary resources research.
Those geologists and engineers who have gone to work in the investment industry's air-conditioned glass palaces are unlikely to want to get their hands dirty in the bush again.
They are lost to the mining industry forever.
How long will the present shortage of skilled labour in the mining industry last?
How long will it take for Universities to resuscitate their mining related faculties and generate an increased flow of graduates to the industry?
The initial signs are not good.
An Australian University located adjacent to a large mining area closed their geology and mining engineering departments many years ago and said that they had no intention of restarting these facilities. They did not want to get involved in a "boom and bust" situation again.
Those Universities with a more amenable attitude towards resuscitating their mining departments will find difficulty obtaining good teaching staff.
When potential teaching candidates can earn several times what a Professor is paid by working in the mining industry, why would they want to go teaching?
It will also take time to persuade new students to make mining their career after University mining faculties have been beefed up.
It will probably take several years to reach the point where sufficient Universities have increased their mining facilities to the point where they can attract an increasing flow of students. Then 4 to 5 years of study will be required for new students before an increased flow of skilled graduates is available to the mining industry.
A best case scenario would be 7 to 8 years before one could expect an increased flow of new mining graduates.
A more realistic expectation would probably be 10 years.
The next decade looks as if it is going to be a period where mining companies will only be able to increase their skilled staff complement by pinching people from other companies.
It is a zero sum game. If the total skilled staff situation is going to be static, or possibly even declining, then the mining industry as a whole will struggle to maintain current levels of production and will simply not have the people available to get new projects underway.
Mining staff will gravitate to those companies where the rewards are greatest and where there are facilities for a good family life.
Mining labour costs will naturally rise sharply.
During the next decade most analysts expect an increasing demand for metals of all kinds. There are differences of opinion as to the rate of demand growth that can be expected but whatever it is, the total supply of new metals to the market is going to be stagnant during this coming decade due to the skilled labour shortage.
If this is the case, then shortages will inevitably develop in markets for different metals leading to higher prices.
The basic economic law that higher prices will generate new supply may have to be postponed for a decade or so in the mining industry and metal markets.
There are implications for investors in the mining industry that need to be studied. In the envisaged circomstance for the coming decade, will a premium develop for those companies that are already in production, or about to do so within the next few months, as they will benefit most from rising metal prices?
Will companies with great development projects be downgraded because of likely substantial delays in bringing their projects to the production stage?
Is this the reason why the larger mergers and acquisitions in the mining industry in recent years have been for companies that are already in production?
Naturally those companies that have already recognised the coming problems in the supply of skilled labour and have built up good teams that are locked in with "golden handcuffs" will be deserving of an improved rating.
The situation will almost certainly be different from country to country and from continent to continent. Are there countries that are better placed than others to cope with this labour shortage situation?
It is almost impossible for an individual to assess this problem across such a vast array of territories. The beauty of the internet is that these articles are read in virtually all countries.
I know this from the emails that I receive from time to time in response to my articles.
I share my views freely but for once I would like to make a special request of readers. I would greatly value input about the status of Universities in your country or area with relation to the production of new mining graduates. Is the situation in your country or area as grave as described in this article?
If you are in the mining industry, how do you view this problem and how are you coping with it? What action is the mining industry taking in your country or area to increase the supply of new skilled workers?
I will undertake to collate all responses received into a later article that will present the results of the comments that I receive.
.........Labor shortage=metals productions down
meals production down=higher prices. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2007 : 06:53:24
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Copper prices confirming deflation in the financial system and severe recession in auto and housing sectors
Karen Zuba
Feb. 9, 2007
Copper prices keep falling every day. It seems the next support far away. The chart patterns are clear- a severe deflatio driven recession in auto and housing sector is imminent. People just cannot buy homes and cars any more.
The copper prices also confirm that US troops are coming back at the end of this year. The war will stop. China and India both have started stagnating. Stagnation there will eventually change into deep depression.
Industrial metals and alloys like steel will get severely affected. The Mittals and Tatas will learn their lesson of a life time as stell prices slump more than 70% in the next five years.
The recession in auto and housing sector is real. The Japanese Government will be forced to bring Yen back to a level of fairness. Tight now 120Yen trades for a dollar. Many analysts believe it will come to 90 Yen to a Dollar. That will make Toyota and Honda collapse. The auto and realestate sectors are slumping badly. They always lead severe recessions. The housing market is leading the recession this time because of excessive borrowing against the homes.
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SMART LIVING & INVST. ARTICLES
Copper prices confirming deflation in the financial system and severe recession in auto and housing sectors
Karen Zuba
The auto and realestate sectors are slumping badly. They always lead severe recessions. The housing market is leading the recession this time because of excessive borrowing against the homes.
READ MORE>> You must be logged in to see this link.
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Burn paper dollars before you melt coins. |
Edited by - Ardent Listener on 02/09/2007 06:56:10 |
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n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2007 : 11:25:06
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If one is interested in the deflation side of the discussion, one can do no better than to read Mish.
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Karen Zuba qwoted above by Ardent Listener says that "Copper prices confirming deflation in the financial system and severe recession in auto and housing sectors" maybe.
The debate between inflation and deflation is a very real one.
Eric Janszen and Mish debate this in very polite and learned manner at this link.
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There is even an mpg audio file of the debate, here:
You must be logged in to see this link.
just click on the words "Podcast Here" below the photographs of these gentlemen's faces.
After years of watching barking heads on crossfire and hardball, these gentlemen seem to me to be, well, gentlemen.
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"Financially, the US economy has degenerated into a sort of cargo cult, where people feel that they can continue to attract recycled petrodollars by dancing around piles of internet servers with their cell phones and their laptops."
-Dmitry Orlov |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 02/13/2007 : 09:21:03
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Copper rallies as market eyes stronger China demand
Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:35 PM GMT
Printer Friendly
Top News
By Pratima Desai
LONDON (Reuters) - Copper prices rallied on Tuesday as the market started to price in rising demand from China, while aluminium prices were boosted by supply fears after unions in Guinea resumed a general strike.
Tin, lead, nickel and zinc also rose, while London-listed miners Vedanta Resources BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Kazakhmys gained more than one percent on talk of consolidation in the sector.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was by 1105 GMT up at $5,605/$5,615 from $5,470 at the close on Monday, when it fell 2 percent on a sell-off triggered by falling oil and gold prices.
Copper prices have fallen more than 10 percent this year on forecasts of a supply surplus this year and are down more than 35 percent since the record high of $8,800 a tonne hit last May, when concerns about economic slowdown emerged.
Sentiment in the second half of last year was also dampened by talk of copper sales by China's State Reserves Bureau.
Now, however, expectations are the SRB will soon return to market to build up its depleted copper stockpiles.
"It's one of the reasons copper prices will stabilise and improve in the first half of this year," said Jon Bergtheil, analyst at JP Morgan. "But there will be weakness in the second half if the supply keeps rising."
Copper stocks in LME warehouses have risen to above 210,000 tonnes from little more than 25,000 in July 2005.
But on Tuesday stocks fell by 2,800 tonnes and that helped copper prices higher, traders said.
ALUMINIUM UP ON BAUXITE SUPPLY
Aluminium was at $2,738/2,743 from $2,707 on Monday as concern about bauxite supplies resurfaced.
Mining at Guinea's national bauxite company CBG was halted as union workers resumed a general strike in protest against President Lansana Conte.
Martial law has been declared in the west African country after the deaths of 9 people in protests.
"Disruptions to bauxite supply are seen tightening the alumina market and could prompt a spike in aluminium prices," UBS said in a research note.
Analysts said news that mining giants BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Ltd. have drawn up separate plans for a $40 billion takeover of U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. was unlikely to affect prices.
A takeover would give either Rio or BHP immediate access to millions of tonnes of bauxite, alumina and aluminium production.
TIN OFF RECORD HIGH
Tin gained to around $12,600/12,800 compared with $12,475 on Monday, when it hit a record high of $12,750 after PT Koba Tin suspended shipments from Bangka in Indonesia following an investigation into alleged illegal mining.
Lead firmed to $1,675/1,685 from $1,655 as the market eyed Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata, which last week declared force majeure on lead deliveries from its Northfleet refinery due to problems at its Mount Isa smelter in Australia.
Force majeure clauses free companies from their obligations without penalties if events are beyond their control.
"There are real supply problems in lead and tin, but the biggest push has come from financial players," a LME trader said. "When copper stopped performing, they backed into tin, lead, nickel and zinc -- small caps in the metals sector."
Nickel was up at $35,800/36,000 from $34,750 on Monday. Prices have slipped since hitting record highs of $38,950 on January 26 as profit-taking dominated on expectations users would look for alternatives, traders said.
"This is a big bounce which could take us back near the $40,000 level," the LME trader said. "Stock are still low and demand is still strong."
Stocks of nickel in LME warehouses at around 4,000 are only one days global consumption.
Zinc gained to $3,170/3,180 from $3,110 on Monday.
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Burn paper dollars before you melt coins. |
Edited by - Ardent Listener on 02/13/2007 09:22:06 |
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n/a
deleted
103 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2007 : 19:28:55
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NEW YORK (AP)- Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded to their highest level in over a month on Thursday amid strong technical support and an influx of Chinese buyers.
Most-active March copper settled up 8.7 cents at $2.6640. During the session the contract rose to $2.69, its highest level since Jan. 11.
Man Financial analyst Edward Meir said in his daily research report that improving Chinese demand has helped to boost copper prices. In particular, he pointed to data showing that China's January imports of refined copper and copper alloy were up 70 percent from the same month a year ago.
April gold settled down 60 cents at $671.40 a troy ounce. March silver settled down 0.3 cent at $13.962 an ounce.
April platinum settled down 20 cents at $1,216.90 an ounce, while March palladium settled down $3.05 at $342.80 an ounce.
The front-month March crude futures contract settled down one penny at $57.99 a barrel after falling as far as $56.62 a barrel, its lowest level since Jan. 31. March gasoline settled down 1.90 cent at $1.5972 a gallon, while March heating oil settled down 1.12 cent at $1.6271 a gallon.
March natural gas settled up 5.1 cents at $7.292 per million British thermal units.
On the New York Board of Trade, March Arabica coffee futures closed up 0.35 cent at $1.1405 a pound, with May up 0.10 cent at $1.1670.
U.S. cocoa futures surged to new six-month highs. The May contract hit $1,793 a metric ton _ the contract's strongest price since July 14, when it reached $1,800 a metric ton. Most-active May cocoa settled up $48 at $1,787, and March added $51 settling at $1,765.
World raw sugar futures raced to six-week highs as funds covered shorts in heavy volume and traders bought the March-May spread in rollovers before expiration on Feb. 28. The March contract settled up 0.55 cent at 11.11 cents a pound, with May up 0.40 cent at 10.85 cents.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, March corn settled 0.75 cent lower to $4.07.50 per bushel, and May also fell 0.75 cent to $4.20.
March soybeans closed 8.25 cents higher at $7.5875 per bushel, and May soybeans ended 8.25 cents higher at $7.7475. March wheat ended 2.25 cents higher at $4.5325 per bushel.-AP
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The above post is intended for entertainment purposes only and in no way reflect the opinions of the flesh and blood person writing the text. All writings under the screen name "copperhead" are merely a characterization of the personna created. |
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