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n/a
deleted
103 Posts |
 Posted - 09/15/2006 : 20:49:00
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O.K., someone please explain to me where this huge shortage of silver is? No one but Silver Sammy cared to reply to this question on GIM.
World Silver Supply and Demand
(in millions of ounces)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Supply
Mine Production 490.9 520.0 542.0 556.7 590.7 606.4 596.5 601.0 620.4 641.6
Net Government Sales 18.9 -- 33.5 97.2 60.3 63.0 59.2 90.6 66.5 68.0
Old Silver Scrap 158.4 169.3 193.9 181.2 180.4 182.4 187.0 183.6 181.2 187.3
Producer Hedging -- 68.1 6.5 -- -- 18.9 -- -- 10.0 15.1
Implied Net Disinvestment 142.8 86.2 53.1 48.8 100.0 -- 20.6 -- -- --
Total Supply 811.1 843.6 829.1 883.9 931.3 870.7 863.3 875.2 878.1 911.9
Demand
Fabrication
Industrial Applications 297.7 320.8 316.4 339.2 375.5 336.4 340.2 350.8 368.3 409.3
Photography 210.1 217.4 225.4 227.9 218.3 213.1 204.3 192.9 181.0 164.8
Jewelry & Silverware 263.7 274.4 259.4 271.7 278.1 286.9 262.4 273.8 247.8 249.6
Coins & Medals 25.2 30.4 27.8 29.1 32.1 30.5 31.6 35.6 42.3 40.6
Total Fabrication 796.8 842.9 829.1 867.8 903.9 866.8 838.5 853.0 839.4 864.4
Net Government Purchases -- 0.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Producer De-Hedging 14.3 -- -- 16.0 27.4 -- 24.8 20.9 -- --
Implied Net Investment -- -- -- -- -- 3.9 -- 1.3 38.7 47.5
Total Demand 811.1 843.6 829.1 883.9 931.3 870.7 863.3 875.2 878.1 911.9
Silver Price
(London US$/oz)
5.199 4.897 5.544 5.220 4.951 4.370 4.599 4.879 6.658 7.312
SOURCE: World Silver Survey 2006
All communication presented to this forum is private commerce by this forum user/member. All terms of private commerce are as this forum user/member understands it. Member F.D.I.C. Substantial penalty for early withdraw.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2006 : 21:12:54
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Well, looking at the figures it seems to be that the Silver Bugs Expect a Huge shortage someday, but a shortage is not here yet.
These figures show supply under “Net Government Sales” as increasing over the years, but I do wonder where the government’s got their silver from, and when and where they are going to replenish their supplies, if ever.
Also, is some of the supply from Net Government Sales from older coins turned into new coins under demand?
Scrap silver as a supply obviously came from odds and ends from Demand under Industrial Applications and Jewelry and Silverware from prior years.
I myself am a bit suspicious of the supposed shortage, and while I have heard that silver in small quantities are used to make some types of button batteries, and that supply of silver is unlikely to be reclaimed, the consumption of button batteries would have to be mighty high.
Silver in medicine wasn’t mentioned. There is a medicine called “silvadine”, a skin cream mixed with small amounts of silver to treat burn victims and aid in healing, is also a non-recoverable source of silver. However, as I said, not exactly the highest unrecoverable amount of silver out there.
I prefer to buy the older silver coins. No one is making restrikes of them and their numismatic value counter balances the silver demand. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2006 : 21:17:52
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| Almost forgot, the keyboards in computers have a thin strip of silver making key connections when you press a key (maybe one cents worth per keyboard ?) and there is silver solder for some electronics devices, also silver lost for all time, supposedly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2006 : 21:30:06
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Forgive me, I don’t always think of all I have to say all at once.
Part of the supposed silver shortage is from unrecoverable silver or prohibitively expensive to recover silver, such as the silver plating on ball bearings used in jet engines to act as a backup to the lubrication systems in case the pumps fail. Unrecoverable silver is also in water purification systems in small, unrecoverable quantities, minute coatings on electric switches, including the light switch on the wall in your room. Again, small amounts, too expensive to try to recover.
The shortage is expected, just as the shortage of oil was expected when China began to become an industrial and economic power. If the shortage does come, it will be most likely a decade from now.
Who knew China and India would be the reason that copper and nickel would go up?
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2006 : 22:44:33
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| Well, silver has been mined and hoarded since BC times, but has only been consumed through industrial processes since the start of the industrial revolution. for the past hundred years we've been burning through silver reserves that took 2000 years to accomeulate. |
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n/a
deleted
143 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 00:27:18
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| a couple of local coin dealers were unwilling to sell their silver bullions unless you offer a bit more than spot; for the one i am able to buy from, he was not too willing to part with; well, i don't think they have broken the laws, ... |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 07:26:15
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The dealers are just being dealers, trying to get the best possible price for what they have. Anybody can sell anything for just about any price as long as there are willing, or uneducated, buyers for their product. Shop around and see if you can get the silver for a better price.
More on Silver and the Shortage, real or imagined.
After a good night sleep, I decided to take another look at these supply and demand figures.
I will stick to 2005 figures to keep things simple
Mine production 641.6
Net government sales 68.0
Old silver scrap 187.3
Producer hedging 15.1
Implied net disinvestments 0.00 from the looks of the figures
total 911.9 or 912 since it adds up to that if you use a calculator.
Demand
Industrial applications 409.3
Photography 164.8 declining in consumption
Jewelry and silverware 249.6 prior years somewhat higher
Coins and medals 40.6
Total fabrication 864.4 or 864.3 added up
47.6 (or 47.7)For net hedging or reserves for future use
Total consumption and reserves 911.9 or 912 if you add it up yourself.
The implied shortage would come if the demand for silver remained constant or increased. Industrial uses for silver could decrease somewhat, but silver is not easily replaced for some applications. Silver has no equal in some uses, industry wise.
The concern is if the demand for silver jewelry or silverware dropped, there would be a glut of silver on the world market, but a drop in silver consumption from jewelry and silverware would only take place on a planet wide drop in buying, such as a global depression. Barring such a calamity, if there is a regional recession (parts of the planet are hit hard but not all) then those not affected would buy silver and pick up the slack. Some would buy silver in expectation once the hard times were over, the demand for silver would go up.
Also, in a depression/recession, mines would lay off workers or shut down, due to a drop in demand for raw materials. Shutting down and starting up a mine is no small task, considering all of the safety, labor, security and environmental issues involved.
As I mentioned previously, where did all of this Old silver scrap come from? If people decrease their silver buying now, then there would be a decrease in silver scrap in the future.
Still, the term Huge silver shortage is more of a scare tactic than a reality. If there is to be a shortage it will come in a decade due to increased demand and expected falling supply. The mines dig out all of the easy to mine silver, leaving the hard to get and uneconomically extractable silver in the mine.
Thank you for providing the topic, Copperhead, it is quite thought provoking, thinking about silver production/consumption.. |
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n/a
deleted
73 Posts |
 Posted - 09/16/2006 : 11:47:41
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Just something interesting I saw the other day when watching TV. It was a show called Lost Worlds about a facility used to process Uraniam at Oak Ridge during WWII.
They had to use miles of copper wire to make huge elecromagnets but all copper available was being used for bullets and shells so it was impossible to get enough copper to make the giant electromagnets. So instead they got the bright idea that since they couldn't get any copper they'd use silver wiring so they went to the US depository and got 14,000 TONS of silver to make the electromagnets.
Pencilvanian forgot to list the units (or I missed reading them or it's something implied that everyone except me knows), so to put it in perspective they used 448,000,000 oz of silver to make the electromagnets. The units in the above post are in millions of ounces (I googled it and found the same numbers) so they used half the global demand of 2005 way back in the 1940's just to make the magnets in an effort to make an atomic bomb...all because of a copper shortage. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 12:59:28
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quote:
Originally posted by eccentric
Just something interesting I saw the other day when watching TV. It was a show called Lost Worlds about a facility used to process Uraniam at Oak Ridge during WWII.
They had to use miles of copper wire to make huge elecromagnets but all copper available was being used for bullets and shells so it was impossible to get enough copper to make the giant electromagnets. So instead they got the bright idea that since they couldn't get any copper they'd use silver wiring so they went to the US depository and got 14,000 TONS of silver to make the electromagnets.
Pencilvanian forgot to list the units (or I missed reading them or it's something implied that everyone except me knows), so to put it in perspective they used 448,000,000 oz of silver to make the electromagnets. The units in the above post are in millions of ounces (I googled it and found the same numbers) so they used half the global demand of 2005 way back in the 1940's just to make the magnets in an effort to make an atomic bomb...all because of a copper shortage.
I saw that too! Thanks for the written details concerning it.
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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n/a
deleted
143 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 16:30:29
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here is a monetary demand for silver:
You must be logged in to see this link.
September 11, 2006.
Opinion of Hugo Salinas Price
with regard to the present situation in Mexico
One more voice, my own, amid such confusion?
I have been insisting for several years on the need to reintroduce silver as money into circulation in Mexico, in parallel with the fiat peso.
I have said that we should do this before the chaos arrived because once disorder arrived ?and it has arrived in spades! ?the confusion and the shouting would be so great that it would be hard to concentrate attention on this measure. And so it has been.
It is lamentable but natural that people cannot see that our social problems, which we share with the whole world, are in great part attributable to the condition which the whole world suffers: that we live making believe that what we use as money is actually money, when it is nothing of the sort: a payment is the delivery of something in exchange for something. Today, “payment?in any currency in the world is not truly a payment, because tendering a peso, a dollar, a euro or any other currency in payment is to tender what is in reality nothing. Such currencies have no value in themselves; they are all “means of exchange?but they are not payment. (China has almost one trillion dollars of reserves, because they have not collected on their exports. They have not been paid. They have only received vouchers.)
We must understand that the financial sector in all parts of the world creates this so-called “money?out of nothing and that it is the financial sector which is the first beneficiary of this fraudulent creation. This is the reason that we see luxurious towers erected in Mexico City and in all capitals of the world. They represent the (involuntary) transfer of purchasing power from the People, to the financial sector. How would it be possible that a 1900 painting by the Viennese painter Klimt, could be sold at auction recently for $135,000,000 dollars, plus commission to the auctioneers, except as a result of the financial plunder that is taking place?
We are very distressed, like ants whose anthill has been disturbed, but we do not comprehend at all the cause of our anguish and of the terrible distortions which the free market has brought us, once money ceased to be money.
The free market, when it operates under the circomestance that one country, the United States, produces the “money?of the world in unlimited quantities, is no longer a true free market. It is the destruction of everything: industry, agriculture, savings, institutions…it is the demolition of the country ? of this country and of all (including the U.S.): the so-called “globalization?
Neither the elected president, Felipe Calderón, nor anyone, can dig us out of the hole caused by false money as long as the root cause of the problem is not addressed, no matter how intelligent and honest the administration of the next president may be.
López Obrador represents the anger and frustration caused by bad money, but neither he nor those who follow him understand this. How could we expect him to begin to resolve our problems if he does not understand their fundamental cause, to begin with?
The monetization of silver would act as a balm for a wounded country. It would provide a base for the beginning of concord, a sign of nationalism that the Left is anxious to see and which would not bother the Right at all ?what is more, the Right would also love the possibility of saving in silver. It would be a hope, which the next administration could give us, that our problems were being addressed directly with a measure which is tangible and visible by all.
For this reason I shall continue to insist upon silver as a lifesaver for Mexican salvation. It is not going to resolve all our problems, but it will be a soothing balm that will be very welcome, even though the full cure may take a long time; monetized silver places us on a road which gives us hope.
Let us hope the monetization of silver is achieved; let us hope that the intelligence of our legislators and of our next president, joined to what their hearts and intuitions tell them, will provide us with monetized silver as soon as possible. We would be the first country in the world to take this step, for the Glory of Mexico.
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n/a
deleted
143 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 16:59:40
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a question: does Mexico need anyone's permissions(IMF, UN, etc) to use silver as their currency?
and who is going to benefit or suffer from this decision? |
Edited by - n/a on 09/16/2006 17:00:23 |
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n/a
deleted
73 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 17:35:01
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Maybe I don't understand? How would that work? They use silver coins, I'm sure the Mexican government can create any coin they like. But was the intent to make it a silver coin of continuously varying value based on the commodities market (which makes buying and selling things a pain you'd have to go to the store and see how many silver coins something costs on a daily basis) or did they intent to make like a $0.50 coin out of $0.50 worth of silver in which case if they'd done that back when it was suggested, everybody in Mexico would just be hoarding/melting them now.
As sidebar, how is the money in the US or any other country backed? The US has a $8.5 Quadrillion National Debt, so what is my paper money backed with? Anything? Obviously it has to be something, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing makes the paper money (the Mint makes coins only). Is that where the WTSHTF section comes from? They obviously can't say "I think we need to make $50 trillion in bills this year" and just do it, unless that goes into the National Debt. On that subject, do any other countries even have a national debt?
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2006 : 20:13:02
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Thank you for pointing out my error, eccentric. The measurement in silver production/consumption was in millions of ounces, my oversight in failing to notate that.
I had forgotten about the government using silver for the electromagnets.
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Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 09/17/2006 : 00:12:06
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Eccentric:
The US dollar is backed by 2 things:
1) Oil. There are only 2 exchanges in the world where you (as a country or major corporation_ can buy oil - London and New York - and both exchanges only allow trading in US dollars. Thus, any country that wants to buy oil has to get some American dollars to buy it with, and any country that wants to sell oil has to accept US dollars for it. Sadam tried to accept Euros, from the French, so the US invaded his country.
2) Debt. - Every citizen in the US had, when they were born, a bond created in their name by the federal government. This bond represents yr future earning (and thus taxable) power. It is these bonds which secure the loans that the federal reserve uses to back the currency it prints for the gub'ment. These loans are then multiplied (first at the national level, and then at the bank level) into torrents of cash, through the evil magic of Fractional Reserve Banking (look that one up on google/video.google.com) up to 100x the actual backing power of the citizen head bonds owned by the gub'ment. |
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n/a
deleted
73 Posts |
Posted - 09/17/2006 : 12:37:09
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| I just realized I quoted the US National Debt as $8.5 QUADRILLION! Really it is $8.5 TRILLION...yeah a factor of 1000 is just a slight error. Figured I'd correct that before someone else notices. If Quadrillion was the correct number I'd say SHTF already, Trillion is a number not as frightening but still humongous. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2006 : 15:34:49
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quote:
Originally posted by eccentric
Maybe I don't understand? How would that work? They use silver coins, I'm sure the Mexican government can create any coin they like. But was the intent to make it a silver coin of continuously varying value based on the commodities market (which makes buying and selling things a pain you'd have to go to the store and see how many silver coins something costs on a daily basis) or did they intent to make like a $0.50 coin out of $0.50 worth of silver in which case if they'd done that back when it was suggested, everybody in Mexico would just be hoarding/melting them now.
You are quite right, eccentric, from 1957-1967 Mexico minted a silver One Peso coin of such low silver content, 0.0514 oz., that the Mexican Government didn't believe these coins would do anything but circulate. Instead many of these coins ended up hoarded, even though, currently their melt value is about $0.57 each.
I suppose the only way any nation could get silver to circulate would be to put in one or two cents worth of silver in each coin, making its melt value too small for anyone to bother hoarding them, or for that matter, too small to bother putting into a coin anyway. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2006 : 19:40:38
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quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
quote:
Originally posted by eccentric
Maybe I don't understand? How would that work? They use silver coins, I'm sure the Mexican government can create any coin they like. But was the intent to make it a silver coin of continuously varying value based on the commodities market (which makes buying and selling things a pain you'd have to go to the store and see how many silver coins something costs on a daily basis) or did they intent to make like a $0.50 coin out of $0.50 worth of silver in which case if they'd done that back when it was suggested, everybody in Mexico would just be hoarding/melting them now.
You are quite right, eccentric, from 1957-1967 Mexico minted a silver One Peso coin of such low silver content, 0.0514 oz., that the Mexican Government didn't believe these coins would do anything but circulate. Instead many of these coins ended up hoarded, even though, currently their melt value is about $0.57 each.
I suppose the only way any nation could get silver to circulate would be to put in one or two cents worth of silver in each coin, making its melt value too small for anyone to bother hoarding them, or for that matter, too small to bother putting into a coin anyway.
That's why no coin with a metal value of its own will ever be able to circulate along with fiat money forever. Even clad coins will some day be worth more for their metal value than their face value.
________________________
If you can conceive it and believe it, you can achieve it. -Napoleon Hill |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2006 : 23:08:42
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If there ever is a "Huge" silver shortage, it will most likely be from a shortage of old silver coins.
You must be logged in to see this link.
This site deals with US silver coins, but other citizens in other nations melted down their silver coins too, I suppose.
Reduced supply + increased demand = higher prices in spite of the spot price of silver. |
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Frugi
Administrator
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2006 : 21:31:46
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To all--keep in mind that silver is placer metal meaning that it primarily is found only near the surface of the earth. All the mining over the centuries has removed alot of the silver near the surface. Silver is usually only found as a by-product of gold, mercury, copper, etc; there is very few sole silver mines around the world. In comparison to gold, silver is actually rarer in usable quantities since it has value as monetary use, and an industrial use-it is being used much quicker than gold which is pretty much only used for investment purposes due to its high value. When a silver mine opens it usually closes down soon due to it running out. Where as when gold mines open they usually stay open for awhile because the deeper you go the more gold there is.
Real Eyes Realize Real Lies |
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n/a
deleted
143 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2006 : 02:19:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Frugi
To all--keep in mind that silver is placer metal meaning that it primarily is found only near the surface of the earth. All the mining over the centuries has removed alot of the silver near the surface. Silver is usually only found as a by-product of gold, mercury, copper, etc; there is very few sole silver mines around the world. In comparison to gold, silver is actually rarer in usable quantities since it has value as monetary use, and an industrial use-it is being used much quicker than gold which is pretty much only used for investment purposes due to its high value. When a silver mine opens it usually closes down soon due to it running out. Where as when gold mines open they usually stay open for awhile because the deeper you go the more gold there is.
Real Eyes Realize Real Lies
thank you for the very useful information, Frugi; but how come silver is not more expensive than gold?
and what's "usable quantity"?
thank you |
Edited by - n/a on 10/03/2006 02:20:14 |
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Frugi
Administrator
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2006 : 19:37:03
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Silver is rarer than gold in above ground quantities that are usable.
The worlds oceans contain about 10 billion tons of gold; all the gold ever mined still exists above ground somewhere whether it is being hoarded by people or used commercially, or in museums, or whatever--it is viewed as a monetary asset--it is considered valuable. Silver is used much more than gold--commercially, industrial, etc. Since silver is cheaper (for now) it is used more than gold in just about everything--electronics, jewelry, film, medicine, circuitry, refridgeration, computers, water purifiers, burn treatments, on and on.
Silver is also the best conductor of electricity--even more than gold and copper--it is less resistant than both; However, since silver is still considered less valuable it is not usually recovered/recycled from whatever use it was intended for. Gold is recovered. There is silver by the ton in all of our landfills; not gold.
Real Eyes Realize Real Lies |
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n/a
deleted
81 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2006 : 19:38:40
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| but how easy is it to get that silver out of all those products in a landfill? |
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Frugi
Administrator
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2006 : 19:42:34
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not easy--and it will probably not be recovered for a long time until people start archealogical digs at our landfill sites-or when they start to mine our landfills for all the valuable materials that were thrown out.
Real Eyes Realize Real Lies |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 10/07/2006 : 13:51:51
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quote:
Originally posted by pencilvanian
If there ever is a "Huge" silver shortage, it will most likely be from a shortage of old silver coins.
You must be logged in to see this link.
Followup
You must be logged in to see this link.
This site puts into perspective.
Quote
“Peak prices of $48 per ounce were reached by 1980 for silver, and over $900 an ounce for gold.
In this frantic period, probably 99.99 percent of all circulating silver coins had been pulled out of circulation and either melted or, in the case of mint-condition rolls and better-date coins, put away.
The removal of silver coins from commerce coincided with other countries switching to non-silver coinage. Canada's 1967 centennial coinage included the last of its silver dollars as well as silver dimes, quarters and halves. Great Britain abandoned silver a few years earlier, as had almost all other Western countries.
Many of the silver coins melted in the 1970s and 1980s became pure (.999) silver bars — often one-ounce bars all the way up to 100-ounce ingots. In he early 1980s, many .999 silver "rounds" were issued by various private mints to honor different people, places and events. These are traded today based on their silver value, not their numismatic value — although some early silver bars bring a premium well above their silver value.
To find a silver dime, quarter or half dollar today is quite a rarity — not that the coin itself is rare. Nearly all those of average usage have been converted into pure silver bars, ingots or rounds. The same is true for sterling silverware and jewelry. The remaining silver coins are either in partial or complete collections, or in mint condition, held by speculators or collectors.”
It isn’t just the metals value to consider, it’s the numismatic. |
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Where is the silver shortage?
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