| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
 Posted - 05/05/2008 : 16:20:10
|
|
Is this a good metal to invest in. It still seems to be in a reasonable price range. I looked at rhodium and that think went from about $400 to $9000 in about five years. I was just looking for another rare metal that might do the same. Just speculation. Thoughts?
|
|
|
nckt
Penny Collector Member
USA
304 Posts |
Posted - 05/05/2008 : 20:59:34
|
| i have always been interested in rhodium, but i have been to lazy to look into it. |
 |
|
|
darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 05/05/2008 : 21:22:58
|
| Up 2250% in five years? I think I'll stay away from Rhodium. |
|
|
|
n/a
deleted
4 Posts |
Posted - 05/06/2008 : 10:52:33
|
There are many thoughts I could share about why I don't bother with palladium investing. The biggest one is the amount of price protection always embedded in the bid of the buyer who may end up taking it off my hands. The price protection for the buyer whenever I've gone to sell is about 50% back of spot bid.
I've done some research on the palladium and have found a couple of things out that further dampen my enthusiasm for it as an investment medium. One is that it is primarily hoarded and then dumped on the market by Norlisk, the big Russian mining conglomerate that now owns 51%+ of Stillwater. They obviously do this to maximize their cartel clout on the catalytic converter market place.
Since CCs are their primary market outlet for Palladium, and since Gasoline prices for the western world are headed off the top of the charts, there is a very real demand lessening scenario building for typical combustion engines. The hybrids and non-gasoline conveyances currently available and becoming more so, do not need the heavy duty dosing of PGMs on their C/C if they indeed even have one in the first place on the new fangled vehicles.
The 3rd reason I'd mention my decision to not invest in Palladium is that--contrary to Rhodium which has MASSIVE strategic [military] demand driving applications--Palladium is pretty much a bland sister in the reasons to fabricate with it niche. This does not bode
well for any killer application which would be price supportive and break the strangle-hold Russia's Norlisk has on the throat of Palladium price fixing.
At best its a novelty, at worst it is a bugger to turn around and sell and that makes it dead money in my books. Dead money results or the high probability of locking in a loss when I purchase a precious metal is NOT the goal of what I perceive to be an "investment."
|
|
|
|
horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1641 Posts |
Posted - 05/06/2008 : 11:09:22
|
quote:
Originally posted by dirtycopperas
There are many thoughts I could share about why I don't bother with palladium investing. The biggest one is the amount of price protection always embedded in the bid of the buyer who may end up taking it off my hands. The price protection for the buyer whenever I've gone to sell is about 50% back of spot bid.
I've done some research on the palladium and have found a couple of things out that further dampen my enthusiasm for it as an investment medium. One is that it is primarily hoarded and then dumped on the market by Norlisk, the big Russian mining conglomerate that now owns 51%+ of Stillwater. They obviously do this to maximize their cartel clout on the catalytic converter market place.
Since CCs are their primary market outlet for Palladium, and since Gasoline prices for the western world are headed off the top of the charts, there is a very real demand lessening scenario building for typical combustion engines. The hybrids and non-gasoline conveyances currently available and becoming more so, do not need the heavy duty dosing of PGMs on their C/C if they indeed even have one in the first place on the new fangled vehicles.
The 3rd reason I'd mention my decision to not invest in Palladium is that--contrary to Rhodium which has MASSIVE strategic [military] demand driving applications--Palladium is pretty much a bland sister in the reasons to fabricate with it niche. This does not bode
well for any killer application which would be price supportive and break the strangle-hold Russia's Norlisk has on the throat of Palladium price fixing.
At best its a novelty, at worst it is a bugger to turn around and sell and that makes it dead money in my books. Dead money results or the high probability of locking in a loss when I purchase a precious metal is NOT the goal of what I perceive to be an "investment."
I won't bother to disagree with much of what you said. Whether or not palladium is headed up or down is arguable and you gave some good arguments for the downside. However, if you are having trouble selling palladium or are being forced to sell for 50% less than spot, then you are selling to the wrong people. The buy/sell spread is not completely unreasonable if you shop around.
Heck, even Kitco buys 1 ounce bars for $10 under spot and they generally have horrible prices and spreads...
You must be logged in to see this link. |
|
|
|
n/a
deleted
4 Posts |
Posted - 05/06/2008 : 17:40:25
|
Heck, there's a great deal of actual price "skid" between public posted quotes and actual, rubber meets the road transactions.
Point of fact:
1) every Palladium bid to buy "qualifying minimum oz" is different than the next name on the "list." 
2) payment now or payment on 90 to 120 days futures calculations = dead money and risk out the wazoo, PASSED THRU TO THE SELLER!!!
3) unless the minimum 100oz of Palladium is actually met, every bidder for Palladium is SITTING on <100 t/o inventory awaiting them reaching THEIR qualifying minimum threshold from the next bigger fish above HIM or HER on the pecking order.
4) all this jogging and jiggling translates into increased PRICE risk AND lower bid prices offered to the smallest size seller/fish's asking for an ACTUAL phone quote such as the name you offered up.
Try selling your Palladium in 1oz bars to J&M in Salt Lake City, double dog dare ya. You'll shove your 1oz bar back into the deepest recesses of your cargo pants pocket and walk out/hang up red-faced as if you were slapped by a mackerel.
Palladium buyers don't come much bigger than J&M, either side of the pond. You can trust me when I state: they are the ones buying fabricated onesies and twosies from the Kitco's and Joe Schmo's and all the smaller smelters in minnow land. Otherwise, that "bigger bidder" is shipping directly to Belgium or Germany, you pick.
In case I am too subtle, DITCH PALLADIUM SPECULATION. The odds are solidly stacked against any payday of substance. Period. |
Edited by - n/a on 05/06/2008 17:53:13 |
|
|
|
darsemnos
Penny Sorter Member
96 Posts |
Posted - 05/08/2008 : 17:04:22
|
| But I really like the name - palladium. |
|
|
|
fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 05/09/2008 : 15:12:42
|
quote:
But I really like the name - palladium.
It does have a nice ring to it. 
I sold an ounce of palladium to my dealer at $5 below spot during its recent run-up. The other dealers in town were offering a little less, so I shopped around. Moral of the story: shop around. |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
|
|
|
psi
Penny Collector Member
Canada
399 Posts |
Posted - 05/10/2008 : 14:59:46
|
| I'd like to get a little palladium myself, I know I won't be able to afford any other plat group metals any time soon so why not get a bit in case it happens to go high again like it did around '99? The whole cold fusion thing is pretty cool too. |
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
Palladium
Forum Locked
