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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
 Posted - 03/30/2008 : 12:49:11
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We have all heard from one source or another of the future shortage of silver, whether it is from increased demand, declining mine production or reduced supply of scrap silver. As to the accuracy of these predictions, they fall somewhere between absolute fact per data reviewed and 'the boy who cried wolf.'
I am not saying the research concerning the shortage of silver is flawed, though I suspect the examiners of such data see what they want to see rather than what the data really says. Much the same way that a bull or bear will look at the same data from Wall Street will draw completely different conclusions, the silver bulls and bears are no different.
I have heard of the shortages on this site and a few others, though in my own personal experience I have yet to see this for myself. My local dealer had plenty of silver to offer, though the foreign silver coins available were in much smaller amounts than usual.
Maybe the silver shortage is hitting large areas of the country but there are pockets of surplus silver still to be found (like my dealer for example.) Maybe my dealer bought from a large number of silver sellers due to the recent price increse.
I am bullish on silver, the poor man's gold, since as gold goes up buyers will settle for the second most favored precious metal, and as inflation rages on a safe haven will be sought by those who lose faith in the dollar, hence silver will fit the bill.
Shortage or not, silver will gain in price in the future (at least it seems so.)
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 14:23:58
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Perhaps the shortage of physical silver is due to the fact that as silver prices peaked a short while back many people were selling off their hoards. The dealers who were buying already had a contract with the refiners to buy that silver. So it was shipped out of their stores or shops as soon as they got it in. The dealers did this because they feared that the price of silver would go down (or correct) and didn't want to be holding a lot of high price silver. Of course that is what happened. Now this silver is at the refineries and the refineries did the same thing that the dealers did. They in turn sold the silver they bought from the dealers as soon they bought it. So who now owns all of this physical silver? I doubt they will be interested in selling it until they can make a profit off of it.
That is not to say new silver will not come into the shops. But I don't think a lot of it will come in until prices get closer to $20 or more again. I just bought 100 ounces from a private individual. If anyone is a buyer then I suggest you too try to do the same thing. You will profit because you should be able to get it for less than a dealer would charge and the seller should make out better because he too would get more than what a dealer would pay. Our Buy, Sell, Trade forum may be a good place to put such deals together. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 14:34:43
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I think the supply of COMEX delivery bars has bottlenecked at the refineries, creating what looks like a shortage. I think it's temporary and people are over-panicking, but it does foretell how easily silver could disappear one day. Ted Butler is probably correct, but I don't think this is the big silver moonshot he's been predicting.
There is a silver shortage where I live, but I suspect that many dealers are holding out for at least the prices at which they bought and are using the COMEX "traffic jam" as an excuse not to sell. Tulving has been out or running low recently, so I know there is some validity to the shortage, but once prices rise again (early April?), I'm sure more silver will come out of the woodwork. |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 15:01:44
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I picked up a little yesterday. In fact some nice SAE's at a good price. He had plenty of generic rounds/bars, and some Engelhard bars. He also had some odd shaped bars. One was marked 23.3 oz, and shaped like a cigar. Kinda cool. Still not seeing a shortage here, at least not yet. Not saying it wont happen....
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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billsattic
Penny Sorter Member
USA
47 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 19:22:10
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| There is no shortage... period ... Just a shortage of people willing to sell for less than 20 per ounce. I think that silver is way underpriced when comparing to gold (silver / gold ratio), but there is no real shortage. Even if there was, metal commodities have never performed well around recessions. But, then again, this economic turmoil is causing some panic. Its anyones game in the next year or two. I still think silver has a way to go before topping out - range 25-30 per ounce. In the short run, it appears to have a steady nose dive - might drop to 15 . If there is another problem in financials, look for a quick spike. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 19:43:44
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| I don't think it is unreasonable that we may see $15ish silver this late spring or into next summer. I'm buying now (kind of a dollar cost average) because it could just as well take off and never come way back down again too. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 21:48:40
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| I have mixed feelings on the shortage. I bought 50 Morgan dollars a week ago from a dealer that were in his "junk silver" box. He said another dealer had told him he was coming over to purchase them and that the guy would be mad that they were gone. He wasnt trying to talk me into buying them as I had already committed to buying them. I told the dealer that he has a sure sale with me and is trusting the other dealer to follow through. So he sold them to me. But it made me wonder why another dealer would come buy 50 junk Morgans from another dealer? Maybe he had a hot buyer who wanted to get their hands on as much silver as possible? Anyway, I dont believe there is really a critical shortage yet. I think alot of people are holding on to what they have in the hopes that it goes much higher or as a hedge against the inflation that is going on. Granted, it is true that there is a limited finite supply of silver and every day it is being used in industrial applications so we may see a shortage in the future. |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 22:44:31
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| I was in a local coinshop by where I live on Mach 17. (The first day silver dropped below $20) I wanted to buy a ten ounce bar because I thought silver would go back up over $20 the next day. The coin dealer only had a few handfulls of 10's (he went to their vault because I wanted an Engelhard), and only one Engelhard. So i bought the Engelhard. They normally stock a lot more than that and have a lot of 1oz. They were very low. |
"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name" 
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2008 : 23:48:17
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| I just remembered two weeks ago being at another shop here in town. I was talking to the owner and he said an out of state dealer bought $40K worth of silver rounds and bars from him the day before, so he was cleaned out of his bullion bars and rounds. Not sure what to think of this... |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 00:12:32
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quote:
Originally posted by CoinHunter53562
I just remembered two weeks ago being at another shop here in town. I was talking to the owner and he said an out of state dealer bought $40K worth of silver rounds and bars from him the day before, so he was cleaned out of his bullion bars and rounds. Not sure what to think of this...
Same story here. My local PM dealer said he'd been making multi-thousand-dollar sales of silver to a bunch of doctors and lawyers. One guy apparently shelled out $30K at one time for silver rounds.
Just curious, does anyone know if PM purchases over a certain dollar amount are subject to IRS reporting as bank transactions over $10K are?
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
343 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2008 : 12:53:14
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quote:
I am not saying the research concerning the shortage of silver is flawed, though I suspect the examiners of such data see what they want to see rather than what the data really says.
The flaw is in their assumptions. A shortage is when demand exceeds supply, but many analysts don't consider investment or jewelry to be actual demands. They assume that investment only consumes "excess" silver, and that people will sell their jewelry and silverware any time it suits their theories. In other words, they muddle supply, demand, and reserves together.
Investors like us are presently demanding silver which we intend to hold for years. The analysts disregard us as if we were children hoarding pennies. Well, I may have only a small amount, but there are thousands like me and that computes to millions of ounces, and we are all (or most of us) going to hold those millions of ounces until it suits us to sell. We are going to buy more when we can. The mines are not producing as much as we want to buy AND THAT IS WHY A SHORTAGE EXISTS! |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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WilliamC
Penny Collector Member
USA
471 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2008 : 13:20:08
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Well all I know is that apmex.com is finally back online and I can get more junk silver at spot there if I want to.
Sad to say I purchased all of mine between $19.50 and $20 per ounce. Wish I'd have held off until the big dip :(
But all they seem to sell in their $250, $500, or $1,000 face value bags are dimes. I think that silver quarters are much more scarce.
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Sorting In Northwest Mississippi |
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Know Common Cents
Penny Pincher Member
195 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2008 : 19:37:24
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Just at a larger coin show in Milwaukee last week. I spoke to the dealers I know about the availability of silver. They all agree that 2008 Silver Eagles are in short supply, because the mint has stopped releasing them twice since the beginning of this year. Two of them told me that the US mint stockpile of silver has been drawn down to a much lower than normal level and that the mint is scrambling to get replacement product.
There has also been some heavy buying by silver-backed ETFs, industry and hoarders. With so many Federal mining regulations, it's difficult to bring a new silver mine on line or even reactivate one that's been dormant due to lower prices in the past.
The supply of above-ground silver is less than one would imagine and could actually be purchased all at once by China if they were inclined to dump dollars or capture a large share of the market (to either ensure their supply needs or to throw a wrench into US industrial production).
I believe that silver has the potential (on a percentage basis) to increase more and faster than gold. |
Here in Wisconsin, we have some of the highest property and gasoline taxes in the US. We're squeezed so much, I have to make my daughter wear penny boxes for shoes. At least she has an endless supply. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2008 : 20:23:33
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by CoinHunter53562
I just remembered two weeks ago being at another shop here in town. I was talking to the owner and he said an out of state dealer bought $40K worth of silver rounds and bars from him the day before, so he was cleaned out of his bullion bars and rounds. Not sure what to think of this...
Same story here. My local PM dealer said he'd been making multi-thousand-dollar sales of silver to a bunch of doctors and lawyers. One guy apparently shelled out $30K at one time for silver rounds.
Just curious, does anyone know if PM purchases over a certain dollar amount are subject to IRS reporting as bank transactions over $10K are?
Unfortunately yes, any purchase of or over ten grand has to be reported to prevent money laundering. This of course doesn't mean that a person with that much money absolutely Has to buy all at once or buy all at one dealer. A person could easily avoid the reporting paperwork by buying 8 grand worth of silver from several dealers in one day or buy 8 grand every other day.
One again, a law created to punch the bad guys in the wallet (drug dealers trying to launder their drug money) ends up hitting the honest person trying to add to their coin collection and said honest person ends up being viewed with suspicion for moving from paper to metals. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 04/11/2008 20:26:21 |
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misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2008 : 22:07:24
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| It seems as 90% of people think there is a silver shortage,that silver is the next gold, or a great investment.Seems like it should be up to $25 already.I've bought at least a grand in the last few weeks as alot of people on here have done as well. |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
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wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2008 : 22:13:05
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I don't think one point has been considered:
You are all talking about the silver shortage on the local level...either that you've seen evidence for it, or that there isn't one in your area.
Yes, small and large investment buyers can impact the market and local market situations.....
But THE SILVER SHORTAGE will result when 'Warren Buffets' AND industrial users buy up/ use up all of the available 1000 ounce bars. THe ETF's bars aren't available for purchase/consumption. Recent refinery purchases may in fact all go to resupply the these 1000 oz bars. So we very well may not see the shortage for another 3-9 months(if, in fact, it is so immanent[spelling]).
Finally, Things will have ALREADY gotten TOO BAD when there is a persistent silver shortage on the local level. Because half the sellers to coin shops and such are just common joes that don't know much of what's going on, they just want to lock in a profit or get some quick cash. These will continue to stream and trickle in up until the day TSHTF.
Thus my thoughts and observations. |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 04/11/2008 : 22:55:56
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Well, I am visiting my coin dealer tomorrow. I will have another talk with him before I buy a bunch of silver....Which I know he has. As far as the future, anything can happen. If a shortage is in the future then I better keep buying. If no shortage is in the future then I should keep buying as well. Just keep buying.
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2008 : 03:03:04
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Silver seems to be trickling back into the market where I live. Eagles and Libertads are still a little tough to find, but they're out there. Maples are really tough to find. Most of what I've seen this past week has been generic rounds and a little 90% junk. I was talking to Coin_Kitten about the shortage yesterday, and she said she's seeing a lot more generic and oddball stuff---even some homemade, self-poured bars. 
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"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2008 : 18:35:10
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Perhaps I spoke too soon on the shortage of silver-
I was at my bullion dealer today and I noticed that he was virtually out of "junk" silver coins. He had plenty of Morgan dollars but no halves (either Franklin, 1964 Kennedy or clad) no silver quarters and no silver dimes. There were no Peace dollars either.
He had .999 rounds and one ounce troy bars but the supply was limited.
It could be that silver sellers were buyers in this environment or it could be silver hoarding is taking hold on potential sellers. |
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2008 : 21:26:30
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Trip to dealer went as expected. There were a lot of people selling today as well. A lot of jewelry was being sold, as well as 90%. I picked up quite a few dimes. Merc and Roosevelt's for $1.20 each. Also picked up some fractional gold as well. Still seeing no shortage. There was a 50.5 ounce silver bar. He tried to cut me a deal, but I wasn't interested. Maybe as the dollars approach $20 each, people are just buying the lower denominations to get more bang for the buck....
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
Posted - 04/13/2008 : 01:02:04
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maybe you should setup in front of the coin dealer and offer the same or a little more in price to the people than the dealer does. And offer FRN's. Be sure to wave around the greenbacks. :D.
you would save some money because the dealer might pay 40 and sell to you for 50. While you could pay the person $45, and you would both win, but the dealer would lose. |
"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name"
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WilliamC
Penny Collector Member
USA
471 Posts |
Posted - 04/13/2008 : 06:32:22
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My last shipment from apmex.com arrived yesterday and it was all silver half-dollars.
The first two shipments I had gotten were all dimes.
The apmex.com website is back up and seems to have a normal supply of junk coins again.
I guess the recent spike got lot's of average people selling off their junk silver coins and they are back in stock.
For now... |
Sorting In Northwest Mississippi |
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NotABigDeal
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3890 Posts |
Posted - 04/13/2008 : 09:45:37
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quote:
Originally posted by moboman
[br]maybe you should setup in front of the coin dealer and offer the same or a little more in price to the people than the dealer does. And offer FRN's. Be sure to wave around the greenbacks. :D.
you would save some money because the dealer might pay 40 and sell to you for 50. While you could pay the person $45, and you would both win, but the dealer would lose.
Actually, trying to undercut the coin dealer near his shop would be a bad idea....Probably get myself banned from the dealer. Good luck with that approach.
Deal |
Live free or die.
Plain and simple.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your council or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
- Samuel Adams |
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wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 04/13/2008 : 19:05:32
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Yes, I'm guessing Moboman was joking.
While I wish there was less of a stigma of letting customers make contact or work out deals,
Realistically, if everyone was working OUTSIDE the coin shop three things would happen, The outside buyers wouldn't be able to buy up all that was being brought to sell;
There would be sufficient competition to push the coin dealer out of business;
And then the ability to get good quality coins would plummet, everyone and their dog would claim to have ms65 coins(that were barely ms63) and counterfeits and fake coins and gold would likely flourish.
As much as i hate to see 'grandma' unload a box of 'old coins' for about 60-85% of their worth, and then me have to pay retail PLUS TAX.... I don't think it would be a pretty place to have no Legitimate and experienced coin dealers. |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
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Silver shortage thoughts
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